Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with 888 million domestic trips taken, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year. Total spending reached 809 billion, up 108.2 billion from the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [4][5] - The report emphasizes the trend of consumers prioritizing experiences over material goods, reflecting a shift towards "paying for emotions and experiences" in travel choices [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8596.85, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 7320.11 [1] Travel and Tourism Data - Daily average travel volume reached a historical high of 304 million during the holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The report notes that railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation all saw increases in passenger volume [5][6] - The average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday was only 58%, down from 75% the previous year, with average room prices decreasing by 18% [9] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7%, with significant growth in organic food sales, which rose by 27.9% [7][8] - The average price of domestic flights remained stable at 849 yuan, showing little change compared to previous years [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new consumption opportunities in sectors like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [17] - It also recommends attention to cyclical sectors such as liquor, hotels, and restaurants, anticipating a recovery in these areas due to policy support [17]

Core Insights - The overall consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday showed a robust growth trend, with significant increases in domestic travel and spending [1][2][6] Group 1: Travel and Tourism - During the holiday, 888 million domestic trips were made, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.19 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The trend of long-distance and cross-border travel is evident, with significant growth in air travel for long routes and an increase in international flights due to optimized visa policies [3] - The travel market is experiencing structural changes, with a rise in short, frequent trips and high-quality long trips, as evidenced by a 52% increase in hotel bookings for two or more nights [5] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday, with foot traffic in monitored shopping areas rising by 8.8% [2] - Consumption of green organic food increased by 27.9%, smart home products by 14.3%, and domestic fashion by 14.1%, indicating a shift towards healthier and more innovative consumer preferences [4] - The issuance of over 4.8 billion yuan in consumption subsidies and various promotional activities effectively stimulated consumer spending [6][7] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Activities - Over 29,000 cultural and tourism events were held during the holiday, contributing to a vibrant cultural consumption atmosphere [7] - The film industry saw a significant boost, with box office revenues exceeding 1.79 billion yuan during the holiday period [4] - Night tourism gained popularity, with search interest for night tours increasing by over 200%, reflecting a growing trend in nighttime economic activities [4]

Group 1 - The 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the modernization goals set for 2035, focusing on tackling key challenges in various sectors [3] - The main theme is "new quality productivity," emphasizing technological innovation as a core driver, with AI expected to see significant growth by 2026, alongside opportunities in renewable energy and biomedicine [3] - The green transition is highlighted as a continuing opportunity, with the plan aiming for comprehensive economic greening, leading to maturity in clean energy and storage sectors, and new opportunities in traditional industries like construction materials [3] Group 2 - Consumer stability is emphasized, with traditional sectors like food and retail expected to rebound due to policy support, while new trends in service consumption, such as medical aesthetics and smart healthcare, are anticipated to grow with rising incomes [4] - The importance of aligning investment with policy implementation and industry cycles is stressed, particularly in areas like food and energy security, which may benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [4] - The overall investment strategy should follow clear policy directions: new quality productivity as the leader, green transition as the foundation, and consumer recovery as the basic support [4]

食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）紧密跟踪中证食品饮料指数，该指数以中证全指为样本空间，选取归属于 饮料、包装食品与肉类两个行业的上市公司股票作为成分股。此外，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）还配 置了场外联接基金（A: 001631；C: 001632）。 国盛证券指出，中秋国庆旺季动销环比修复，婚宴及大众聚饮场景坚挺，头部酒企表现更佳，供给端持 续发力、报表端持续出清，中长期行业价值凸显。短期看弹性、中长期看龙头。大众品方面，假期期间 餐饮礼赠市场整体回暖，产品创新加速，渠道竞争激烈但新渠道结构优势凸显，重点关注优秀成长个 股。 国信证券指出，随着二季度酒类消费政策影响逐步变弱，酒类、餐饮供应链等需求步入进入复苏阶段， 供给端也将出现积极信号，比如白酒产区政府降速共识形成，我们认为四季度飞天茅台价格等板块核心 景气指标均有改善空间。从历史经验来看，四季度宏观政策密集，在基本面低基数、资本市场低预期、 机构持仓较低、美联储降息预期的背景下，任何供需两端的变化均有可能催化股价上行，比如白酒经销 商大会释放降速预期，我们看好四季度板块投资机会。 消息面上，国庆中秋假期消费亮点纷呈。 据商务部商务大数据监测，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities suggests that the fourth quarter will see concentrated macro policies, with low baseline fundamentals and low market expectations, indicating potential stock price increases due to any changes in supply and demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to policies like liquor and the catering supply chain (pre-made dishes) [1] Market Review - The food and beverage sector has underperformed this year due to insufficient domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-shares and H-shares rising by 1% cumulatively, while A-share food and beverage (Shenwan) fell by 4.7%, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 (+17.9%); H-share food and beverage (Shenwan) increased by 29.5%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index (+34%) [2] Category Differentiation - Since the second quarter, liquor stocks have been under pressure due to policy impacts, with Kweichow Moutai and liquor (excluding Kweichow Moutai) down by 5.5% and 5.8% respectively since the beginning of the year; however, mass-market products show signs of improvement, with leading brands rising by 13.4% in the first three quarters, and beverages (e.g., Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage) and snacks (e.g., Wei Long, Yanjinpuzi) performing the best [3] Reform Empowerment - Many companies have actively engaged in channel, product, and organizational reforms this year, leveraging digitalization to reshape the industry ecosystem, with emerging trends such as maternity subsidies, coconut water, sugar-free tea, konjac snacks, sparkling yellow wine, and new models like Zhenjiu Lidu and Jiu Gui Jiu's Free Love, indicating enhanced bottom signals for the sector [4] Outlook for Q4 - As the impact of liquor consumption policies from the second quarter gradually weakens, demand in liquor and catering supply chains is expected to enter a recovery phase, with positive signals emerging from the supply side, such as a consensus among liquor-producing regions on slowing production; Guosen Securities believes that key indicators like the price of Feitian Moutai will show improvement in the fourth quarter [5]

华泰证券指出，白酒行业国庆+中秋双节延续调整趋势，双节整体仍有承压，行业延续分化，龙头相对 表现稳定，动销端看行业同比仍呈现下滑趋势，部分区域环比略有改善。分场景看，大众宴席场景有所 修复，政商务消费仍有所承压，礼赠消费有所减少。分价格带看，高端酒旺季需求弱复苏，大众价位动 销表现行业领先，次高端价位仍有一定承压且分化显著；当前行业库存企稳，部分酒企边际去化库存， 释放经营压力。展望来看，本轮调整中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面探底企稳，叠加促销费 政策托底，行业或逐步步入良性修复阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in the fourth quarter, supported by favorable external conditions from overseas markets and resilient domestic consumption data during the recent holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Market Influence - The overall performance of overseas markets during the holiday has boosted investor sentiment in the A-share market, with private equity firms noting a positive emotional momentum [2]. - Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical developments, and record-high gold prices are seen as having a generally positive impact on the A-share market [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The recent Golden Week holiday showcased strong consumer resilience, with impressive travel and consumption data, which adds warmth to the economic fundamentals [1][2]. - The stable release of domestic policies and economic data around the holiday is expected to lack major variables that could significantly impact the market [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced approach to stock selection, emphasizing the importance of both aggressive and defensive strategies [4]. - Some firms are increasing their positions and optimizing their portfolios, anticipating a recovery in market sentiment post-holiday [4][5]. Group 4: Focus on Technology and Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector remains a focal point for many private equity firms, with expectations for significant opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing [5][6]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to present opportunities for stocks that performed well [5][6]. Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The market is expected to maintain its focus on key themes such as the internet, domestic semiconductor industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]. - There is a belief that both technology growth and value stocks will perform well, with potential for revaluation in consumer and cyclical sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - The article highlights significant global market movements during the National Day holiday, including a government shutdown in the US, a surge in Japan's stock market, and gold prices reaching historical highs [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 48,000-point mark for the first time on October 6, becoming the best-performing major index globally, influenced by the election of a new president in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [2] - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.57%, Dow Jones up 0.44%, and S&P 500 up 0.39%, driven by strong performance in the semiconductor sector due to a significant agreement between AMD and OpenAI [6] Group 2 - Gold prices surged, with spot gold breaking the $4,000 mark for the first time, reflecting a nearly $1,400/ounce increase this year, a rise of over 52% [8] - The People's Bank of China announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity, marking a significant policy move to support the market [10] - A new government procurement policy will provide a 20% price evaluation advantage for domestically produced products starting January 1, 2026, aimed at fostering a competitive procurement market [11] Group 3 - The electric vehicle and energy storage sectors saw increased activity, with record charging volumes and strong demand for energy storage cells, although BYD's September sales declined to 396,300 units [12] - Meta's AI glasses have sold out in retail stores, indicating strong market demand, with plans for increased sales points to meet supply [14] - Longfeng Pharmaceutical's stock surged over 230% on its debut, attracting investor attention despite a general market downturn [15] Group 4 - Private equity firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, focusing on technology growth as a core investment theme [16] - October's "golden stocks" list from brokers features nearly 200 stocks, with Zhaoyi Innovation receiving multiple recommendations, indicating a focus on technology and consumer recovery sectors [17]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is currently at a bottoming phase, with strong players continuing to thrive [4] - The market has underperformed due to weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, with A-share food and beverage sector down 4.7% year-to-date, while H-share food and beverage sector increased by 29.5% [4] - There is a notable divergence among product categories, with alcoholic beverages facing pressure while mass-market products show signs of improvement, particularly in leading brands [4] Market Indicators - The trading volume, open interest, and valuation of the food and beverage sector are at historically low levels, with the sector's trading volume in A-shares dropping below 2% [9][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage has been declining since 2021, with categories like liquor and beer at historically low percentiles [12][16] Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the need for a top-down approach to assess the investment value of leading companies like Kweichow Moutai, which holds a 31% weight in the food and beverage sector [27] - A bottom-up approach is also suggested to identify rapidly growing segments or companies in recovery [27] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on policy-sensitive sectors such as liquor and the restaurant supply chain, highlighting companies like Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Haidilao [4] - Strong brands in the mass-market segment are also recommended, including Nongfu Spring, Dongpeng Beverage, and Yili Group [4] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in liquor consumption as the impact of recent policies diminishes, with positive signals expected from the supply side [4] - The fourth quarter is projected to see improvements in key indicators for the liquor sector, including the price of Moutai [4] Performance Forecast - For Q3 2025, Kweichow Moutai is expected to generate revenue of 1,863.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, while Luzhou Laojiao is projected to see a 10% decline in revenue [49][50] - The report provides detailed forecasts for various companies, indicating expected revenue and profit changes for the upcoming quarters [49][50]

Industry Overview - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.7% [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323,906 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 292,643 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.1% [2] - By consumption type, in August, the retail sales of goods were 35,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while catering revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, increasing by 2.1% [2] E-commerce and Online Retail - From January to August, the online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%. Among this, the physical goods online retail sales were 80,964 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales [3] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively [3] Consumer Trends - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a clear structural characteristic in consumption growth. Online channels are significantly driving this growth, and service consumption remains active [3] - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a shift towards functional skincare, domestic brands, and premium products, with leading brands achieving high growth despite market challenges [4] Investment Opportunities - Recent additions to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list include several retail and light manufacturing stocks, which may see increased liquidity and trading opportunities [5] - The beauty care industry is witnessing a shift towards rational consumption, with consumers focusing more on product quality and cost-effectiveness, benefiting domestic brands [5] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost the tourism retail sector, with a focus on online travel platforms, theme parks, and chain hotels [6] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating on the retail industry, with a focus on newly added Hong Kong stocks in the retail sector and domestic beauty brands during the Double Eleven pre-sale period [6]