Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the dual nature of stablecoins, highlighting their necessity in modern payment systems while also acknowledging the associated risks, particularly in illegal activities [3][4] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge in payment settlements, ultimately requiring conversion to fiat currency for true value transfer, necessitating regulatory oversight to ensure safety and compliance [4][5] - The impact of foreign stablecoins on national currency sovereignty is significant, with the need for regulations to mitigate potential risks while leveraging stablecoins for enhancing the international influence of sovereign currencies [5][6] Group 2 - The relationship between stablecoins and the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is crucial, with the dominance of USD stablecoins indicating a need for RMB stablecoins to support emerging economic development rather than direct competition [6][8] - The interplay between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is highlighted, with stablecoins excelling in cross-border transactions while CBDCs are more suited for domestic applications, suggesting a complementary relationship [7] - Recommendations for the development of RMB stablecoins include a gradual approach, starting with offshore issuance in Hong Kong and expanding to free trade zones, to enhance the use of offshore RMB and facilitate its internationalization [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent focus on stablecoins has led to warnings from regulatory bodies about the risks of illegal fundraising and fraudulent activities associated with them [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau issued a warning about illegal fundraising activities disguised as stablecoin investments, highlighting the risks of scams and financial crimes [1]. - Regulatory measures in China primarily prohibit cryptocurrency trading and restrict banks from providing settlement services for such transactions [2]. - Other regions, including Hong Kong and the U.S., have introduced regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to obtain licenses and adhere to local laws, even for overseas operations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Risks - The potential volatility of stablecoins can lead to significant market panic, especially if a large number of holders attempt to redeem their stablecoins for fiat currency simultaneously [3]. - The lack of interest payments to stablecoin holders and the need for regulatory oversight of the investment areas of stablecoin issuers are critical issues that need addressing [3]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Education - Experts emphasize the importance of public understanding of stablecoins, advising potential investors to avoid participation without adequate knowledge [4]. - The Shenzhen office for combating illegal financial activities warns that institutions engaging in fundraising without proper authorization are operating illegally and may lead to significant financial losses for investors [5].

Group 1: Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong - Hong Kong plans to issue limited stablecoin licenses by the end of 2025, with the initial number expected to be in the "single digits" [1] - The regulatory sandbox initially focused on stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, but there is growing interest in offshore stablecoins pegged to the Chinese yuan, driven by major tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has established new regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain sufficient asset reserves and segregate customer assets [1] - The new stablecoin policy in Hong Kong sets a global benchmark through full reserve backing, strict redemption guarantees, and oversight by the HKMA, reinforcing its status as a regulated digital finance hub [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Supply Chains - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Vietnam from 46% to 20%, although this remains significantly higher than historical levels [2] - Tariff options are still not fully eliminated for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and semiconductors, affecting various Asian economies reliant on exports [2] - China is shifting its policy focus towards stimulating domestic demand through reforms and regulatory adjustments, rather than large-scale interventions [2] Group 3: Home Furnishing Sector Valuation - The home furnishing sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 22.39, which is at the 34.82% percentile of the past five years, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [3] - Major home furnishing companies like Sophia and Oppein are at historical low valuations, with potential for upward valuation adjustments and high safety margins [3] - The market share of leading custom home furnishing companies is expected to increase due to the inability of white-label brands to participate in subsidies, with companies like Oppein and Sophia showing substantial growth potential [3] - The rise in smart home penetration, driven by technology and policy incentives, is expected to promote industry growth, with companies like Mousse, Haotaitai, and Qushui Technology showing potential [3] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Insights - Despite claims of "zero emissions," the production and recycling of batteries for electric vehicles pose significant environmental challenges, highlighting battery pollution as a future concern [4] - The competition between traditional automotive companies and emerging electric vehicle firms is not on the same track, as their goals and rules differ, making the notion of "overtaking" misleading [4] Group 5: Power Outage in Europe - A large-scale power outage occurred in the Czech Republic on July 4, 2025, lasting approximately nine hours, revealing structural vulnerabilities in modern power systems [5] - The outage led to severe consequences, including the paralysis of railway systems, subway operations, public transport, and communication networks [5] - Increasing extreme weather events add pressure to power systems, particularly affecting transmission lines and increasing grid vulnerability [5] - Historical power outages have demonstrated the risks of single faults leading to widespread system failures, emphasizing the need for upgrades and better monitoring systems in core transmission channels [5]

资料来源：最闻 【山证计算机】AI 算力专题报告：AI 产 业高景气持续，算力国产化大势所趋 2025.5.27 【山证计算机】机器人产业趋势持续强 化，重视上下游投资机会 2025.5.14 分析师： 计算机 行业快报 领先大市-A(维持) 2025 年 7 月 7 日 行业研究/行业快报 计算机行业近一年市场表现 方闻千 执业登记编码：S0760524050001 邮箱：fangwenqian@szxq.com 研究助理： 邮箱：zouxinchen@sxzq.com 全球稳定币监管框架建立，产业将迎来爆发时刻 事件描述： 首选股票 评级 全球稳定币监管立法正快速推进：今年 6 月 17 日，美国参议院以 68 票 比 30 票正式通过 GENIUS 法案，明确了支付型稳定币的定义并提出了稳定 币的发行资质和抵押品要求等，为美元稳定币制定监管框架，目前 GENIUS 法案正递交众议院审议；欧盟 MiCA 法案已于 24 年 12 月 30 日全面生效； 今年 5 月 21 日，香港通过《稳定币条例草案》，并将于 8 月 1 日正式生效， 该条例明确稳定币发行人需在香港金管局申请牌照，并符合储备资产管理、 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government is set to implement the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in August, which will establish a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong [1][2] - The Financial Secretary, Xu Zhengyu, indicated that the number of licenses issued will be in the "single digits," with expectations to receive applications after the ordinance takes effect [2] - There are currently at least nine institutions interested in applying for stablecoin licenses, including three that are part of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's stablecoin issuer sandbox [2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, Hong Kong's stablecoin concept stocks saw significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Guotai Junan International (+10.77%) and Yika (+9.87%) [3] - Stablecoins are expected to facilitate cross-border payments and reduce transaction costs, serving as a local currency alternative in specific regions [4] - Analysts from various securities firms suggest that the stablecoin market is expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading into broader payment applications, indicating a rapid increase in market size and trading activity [4]

Core Insights - The market attention on stablecoins has surged, leading to significant stock price increases for related companies, particularly in Hong Kong, where some stocks have seen multiples of price increases detached from their fundamentals [1] - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to certain assets, combining the convenience of digital currencies with the stability of traditional currencies [1] - Regulatory bodies are accelerating the legislative process for stablecoins due to multiple risks, including market spillover, lack of transparency in reserve assets, and on-chain risks [1][2] Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act" in June, with the House of Representatives also pushing for related legislation [1] - The act stipulates that stablecoin issuers can only invest reserve funds in U.S. dollar cash, demand deposits, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, among others, to enhance reserve transparency [1] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" will take effect on August 1, marking the first comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins globally, requiring issuers to obtain licenses [1] Market Dynamics - Currently, fiat-backed stablecoins dominate the market, with U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins leading [2] - According to FXC Intelligence, the projected trading volume for stablecoins in 2024 is $5.7 trillion, which still represents a low proportion of global financial transaction volume [2] - Stablecoins are essentially credit extensions of pegged assets, meaning their value is influenced by the volatility of the underlying assets, and there exists a risk of decoupling [2] Global Perspectives - Different countries have varying attitudes towards stablecoins, with some regions potentially facing stricter regulations or outright bans on stablecoin transactions [2] - The rapid innovation in stablecoins may outpace regulatory frameworks, making it challenging to address emerging risks effectively [2] - Despite the risks, stablecoins offer significant advantages such as low costs, real-time settlement, and 24/7 availability, positioning them as a potential new infrastructure for cross-border payments [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - Stablecoins have become a significant topic in global financial regulation, with major economies moving towards integrating stablecoins into existing financial regulatory frameworks to ensure their safe and controlled participation in payment and settlement scenarios [3]. - Hong Kong is actively establishing a clear regulatory path for stablecoins, having introduced a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, which is set to be implemented on August 1, 2025. This regulatory framework aims to protect consumer rights through capital requirements and reserve management [4]. - The Hong Kong dollar stablecoin is expected to play a crucial role in facilitating regional trade and cross-border financing while enhancing Hong Kong's position in the Asian clearing system [5][6]. Summary by Sections Global Regulatory Trends - Major economies, including the EU and the US, are advancing their regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, with the EU's MiCA set to be implemented by December 2024 and the US accelerating its legislative process [3]. Hong Kong's Regulatory Framework - Hong Kong's proactive approach includes a policy declaration on virtual asset development and the introduction of a sandbox for stablecoin issuers, which has attracted various stakeholders to explore pilot projects [4]. Development Prospects of Hong Kong Dollar Stablecoin - The Hong Kong dollar stablecoin is positioned to become one of the first officially compliant local stablecoins, potentially serving as a bridge for the internationalization of the Renminbi and reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].

Group 1 - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is becoming clearer, with the Hong Kong Legislative Council passing the Stablecoin Bill, effective from August 1, establishing a licensing system and 1:1 high liquidity asset reserves as core components [2][3] - Cathay Financial International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, allowing direct trading of Bitcoin and stablecoins on its platform [2][3] - The global issuance scale of stablecoins has exceeded $235 billion as of May 2025, indicating significant market growth [2] Group 2 - Several public fund subsidiaries in Hong Kong are actively preparing for the stablecoin ecosystem, participating in sandbox projects led by the Hong Kong government, including stablecoin issuance, payment, asset integration, and fund subscription and redemption [3][4] - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has been involved in multiple sandbox projects and is collaborating with major financial institutions to test end-to-end processes for tokenized fund transactions and cash management solutions [3][4] - The introduction of stablecoin applications in fund management could lead to a noticeable increase in fund management scale, as stated by Huaxia Fund's digital asset management head [4] Group 3 - In April 2024, six virtual asset spot ETFs were officially listed in the Hong Kong market, with major fund companies like Bosera Fund and Huaxia Fund launching Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs that allow direct investment in these cryptocurrencies [5][6] - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has been proactive in the digital asset space, launching Asia's first spot crypto asset ETFs and a tokenized currency fund, aiming to expand its tokenized fund product series [6][7] - Fund companies are rapidly building teams to capture talent in the virtual asset sector, with job postings for product managers requiring experience in virtual assets, fintech, and blockchain [7] Group 4 - Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) has established a digital asset department to manage the lifecycle of virtual asset products and is focused on integrating traditional financial products with virtual assets and stablecoins [7] - The company plans to continue launching more tokenized fund products and explore the use of digital currencies for settlement to enhance transaction efficiency in the digital financial ecosystem in Hong Kong [7]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are a strategic battleground for national digital financial discourse, serving as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto economy, especially in the context of emerging regulations in the EU, the US, and Hong Kong [1][5][10]. Group 1: Stablecoin Mechanism and Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are categorized into three types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins dominating the market [2][19]. - The stablecoin market exhibits a "one super, one strong, and a hundred flowers blooming" pattern, with USDT and USDC together accounting for 86% of the market share [2][36]. - Stablecoins are utilized in various scenarios including DeFi ecosystems, RWA transactions, value storage, cross-border payments, and retail payments, providing functions such as pricing benchmarks and real-time settlement [2][63]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Systems - Stablecoins pose significant implications for banking systems, affecting currency status, central bank policy tools, and potentially leading to systemic disturbances [3][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory frameworks in the US and Hong Kong mark a turning point for stablecoin development, emphasizing the need for compliance and stability in the financial system [5][10]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" introduces a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, focusing on strict entry requirements, robust reserve management, and unconditional redemption [13][14]. Group 4: Comparison of Regulatory Models - The regulatory approaches in Hong Kong, the US, and the EU differ significantly, with Hong Kong emphasizing openness and compatibility, the US reinforcing the dominance of the dollar, and the EU pursuing unity and security [16][18]. - The regulatory frameworks aim to balance financial stability and innovation while protecting investors and maintaining the integrity of financial markets [17][18]. Group 5: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, the stablecoin market exceeds $250 billion, with USDT and USDC leading the market, accounting for 62% and 24% of the total market share, respectively [36][39]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with USDT being the largest stablecoin by market cap, followed by USDC, which has gained traction due to its compliance and transparency [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong marks a significant step in solidifying its position as an international financial center and a hub for virtual assets, with a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins set to take effect on August 1 [2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing a surge in interest, with the total issuance exceeding $250 billion as of June 4, 2025, dominated by USDT at over $150 billion and USDC at over $60 billion [3]. - The first stablecoin, Tether (USDT), was launched in 2014, pegging 1 USDT to 1 USD, and has since become a foundational tool in cryptocurrency trading and cross-border payments [3]. - The recent IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC, saw its stock price rise nearly 170% on its first day, reflecting growing market enthusiasm for stablecoins [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - Hong Kong is the first global financial center to establish a dedicated regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, with the "Stablecoin Regulation" passed by the Legislative Council on May 21, 2023 [7][11]. - The regulation includes a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, which will be implemented on August 1, 2023, requiring compliance with core responsibilities such as reserve management and risk management [8][9]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has initiated a "stablecoin issuer sandbox" to allow institutions to test their business models and technology under controlled conditions [9]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The rapid implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" demonstrates Hong Kong's competitive awareness in the digital currency regulatory space, setting a new standard for global fiat-backed stablecoin development [2][11]. - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance market efficiency and liquidity through the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," reinforcing its ambition to become a global digital asset center [11]. - The integration of stablecoins into the financial ecosystem is seen as a pivotal step towards the tokenization of financial assets, with potential implications for the international monetary system [12].