贵金属日报 2025-10-22 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金跌 4.64 %，报 945.44 元/克，沪银跌 4.86 %，报 11285.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4137.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 48.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 3.98%，美元指数报 98.97 ； 受到短期价格上涨斜率较高以及海外风险事件缓和的影响，贵金属价格昨日出现较大幅度下 跌，但从宏观驱动以及海外现货市场可能的走向来看，金银价格后续仍具备上涨空间，但需要 一定盘整时间。 最新数据显示，截至早盘，伦敦白银一月期隐含现货租赁利率仍达到 16.39%，较昨日的 16.35% 小幅上升。白银 EFP 期转现为 0.9 美元/盎司，较日前的 1.25 美元/盎司有所回落，但仍处于 近年同期的最高水平。COMEX 白银库存继续去化，10 月 21 日下降 81.96 吨至 15671 吨。海外 现货紧俏的逻辑从数据上来看依然具备。 【策略观点】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping over 6% and silver over 8%, is seen as a market correction rather than the end of a bull market, driven by profit-taking and external factors like a stronger dollar and reduced market liquidity during India's festival season [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking after a period of rapid price increases, with many investors looking to secure profits [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar has reduced the attractiveness of precious metals, as they typically move inversely to the dollar [3]. - The market liquidity has decreased due to India's Diwali festival, which has contributed to amplified price volatility [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns indicate that after significant price surges in gold, corrections often occur, but as long as underlying supportive factors remain, prices are likely to recover [4]. - Key supportive factors include ongoing gold purchases by central banks, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent concerns regarding the creditworthiness of the US economy [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the current correction is a healthy market adjustment, and as long as long-term bullish factors remain intact, gold and silver are expected to return to an upward trajectory [5].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.47%, the S&P 500 remaining flat, and the Nasdaq declining by 0.16%. The Dow reached a new all-time high [1] - Major tech stocks showed varied performance, with Amazon rising over 2%, while Nvidia, Oracle, and Google fell more than 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.97%, with most popular Chinese stocks declining, including Alibaba down nearly 4% and JD down nearly 3% [1] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver facing rare drops. Gold saw its largest daily decline in twelve years, dropping to a low of $4,082, a 6.3% decrease [1][3] - Silver also dropped sharply, with spot silver falling below $47.90, marking an 8.7% intraday decline, the largest since February 2021 [3] Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Multiple factors contributed to the end of the previous upward trend in precious metals, including changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - A stronger U.S. dollar, technical indicators showing overbought conditions, and a lack of transparency in investor positions also pressured precious metal prices [5] - The end of the seasonal gold buying in India further exacerbated market sell-off pressures [5] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts have differing views on the recent precious metals crash and future trends. Some warn that speculative long positions may have accumulated significantly, making the gold and silver markets more susceptible to corrections [5] - Despite signs of overbought conditions, some analysts noted that demand for gold remains strong, with a cumulative increase of over 65% since 2025 [5] - Bloomberg strategists indicated that while ETF gold holdings have not reached historical peaks, market momentum typically fades, and if delayed economic data shows stronger-than-expected U.S. performance, gold may face further declines [6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - International gold and silver prices continue to decline, with spot gold dropping below $4100 per ounce, currently reported at $4141.03 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 5.02% [1][2][4] - Spot silver has decreased by 6.81%, currently priced at $48.945 per ounce [1][3][6] - COMEX gold is down 5.01%, trading at $4141.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver has fallen nearly 7%, currently at $47.845 per ounce [3][4] Group 2: Mining Stocks Performance - Gold and silver mining stocks are also experiencing declines, with Hecla Mining and First Majestic Silver both dropping nearly 10%, and Pan American Silver down over 9% [6] Group 3: Broader Market Context - The U.S. stock market shows mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.68% at 47025.02 points, while the Nasdaq is down 0.16% at 22954.14 points, and the S&P 500 is slightly up by 0.08% at 6740.32 points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver facing their largest daily declines in years, driven by multiple factors including a strong dollar and reduced safe-haven demand [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell approximately 6.3% to around $4082, marking the largest daily drop since April 2013, while New York futures dropped to $4093, down 6.1% [1]. - Silver prices dropped nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday decline since February 2021, with New York futures falling to $47.12, down about 8.3% [4]. Market Pressures - The decline in precious metals was influenced by expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions, which collectively ended the previous upward trend [7]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market [8]. Speculative Positions - Analysts noted that speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated significantly, making them more susceptible to corrections [9]. - The absence of weekly positioning reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to the government shutdown has allowed speculators to build large one-sided positions [8][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that despite the sharp declines, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting potential buying interest may limit further corrections [7][10]. - There is a divergence in analyst opinions, with some indicating that the recent price drop may not be detrimental, while others caution that momentum could eventually fade, leading to increased selling pressure if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, which has surged nearly 80% this year, is also experiencing significant declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors and historical market tightness [11]. - Recent data indicated the largest single-day outflow of silver from warehouses associated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange since February, alongside a decrease in New York inventories [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking, easing global trade tensions, and a stronger US dollar, which has made precious metals more expensive for buyers [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On October 16, gold prices surged nearly 3% to over $4300 per ounce, while silver rose over 2% to above $54 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3]. - On October 21, gold prices fell over 5%, dropping below $4130 per ounce, and silver prices fell nearly 8%, dropping below $49 per ounce [1][3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop is a result of profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions and potential resolution of the US government shutdown [3][4]. - Despite the recent declines, analysts believe that gold prices will continue to rise in the long term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [5][6]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, with a target price of $5000 per ounce [6]. - Analysts from UBS and other institutions predict that gold could reach $4700 per ounce, supported by political and trade uncertainties, declining real interest rates, and rising government debt [5][6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a meeting between China and the US, which eases trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is being realized. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and will rise step - by - step in the long - term [2]. - The trend of gold prices is the anchor for silver prices. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.02%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.20% [2]. - **Core Logic**: - **Short - term Hedging**: There may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is being realized [2]. - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but there are signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further rate cuts. The ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index is oscillating strongly, and the US Treasury yield is oscillating weakly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold main - contract closing price is $4374.30 per ounce, up 2.49% from the previous day and 5.92% from the previous week; London gold is $4294.35 per ounce, up 1.65% from the previous day and 4.84% from the previous week [3]. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract on the SHFE is 994.06 yuan per gram, up 2.45% from the previous day and 5.87% from the previous week; the closing price of Gold T + D on the SGE is 986.89 yuan per gram, up 1.35% from the previous day and 4.99% from the previous week [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots, unchanged from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main - contract positions on the SHFE are 205,110 lots, down 1.35% from the previous day and 10.22% from the previous week; Gold T + D positions on the SGE are 254,754 lots, down 1.35% from the previous day and up 8.81% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory on the SHFE is 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The trend of gold prices is the anchor for silver prices. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver main - contract closing price is $51.40 per ounce, up 1.53% from the previous day and 1.23% from the previous week; London silver is $51.80 per ounce, down 4.25% from the previous day and up 1.09% from the previous week [7]. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract on the SHFE is 11,805 yuan per kilogram, up 0.54% from the previous day and 2.36% from the previous week; the closing price of Silver T + D on the SGE is 11,759 yuan per kilogram, down 0.17% from the previous day and up 1.99% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots, unchanged from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main - contract positions on the SHFE are 6,368,310 lots, down 1.87% from the previous day and 9.22% from the previous week; Silver T + D positions on the SGE are 3,977,852 lots, up 3.84% from the previous day and 19.60% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory is 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory is 15,751 tons, down 2.64% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory on the SHFE is 749 tons, down 29.51% from the previous week; silver inventory on the SGE is 1,051 tons, down 5.18% from the previous week; the total explicit inventory is 42,303 tons, down 1.70% from the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.31%, the US dollar index is 98.59, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, etc [9]. - **Other Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 52.15% from the previous day and 36.05% from the previous week; the VIX index is 18.67, up 2.41% from the previous day and down 10.28% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index is 296.49, up 1.07% from the previous day and 0.67% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1257, down 0.22% from the previous week [12].

在韩国，随着金银价格不断创下新高，投资需求激增，首尔各大黄金交易所、金店等纷纷库存告罄，订购10钱（即37.5克）黄金需 要等待4周。在韩国首尔钟路区的贵金属一条街上，汇集着上百家销售门店。韩媒称，全国七成以上的贵金属商品在这里交易。近来 这里的生意异常火爆，即便是在工作日下午，询价、选款的顾客也是络绎不绝。韩国业内人士称，近期金价持续高位运行，但投资 黄金需要较多的本金，这也让不少韩国消费者开始关注价格相对亲民的白银及其相关制品。近来，白银价格也屡创新高，韩国黄金 交易所的数据显示，17日白银价格为每克2467韩元（约合人民币12元），年初至今累计涨幅近70%，高于同期的黄金涨幅。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices may turn to a volatile trend. After a significant and rapid adjustment last Friday night, prices are supported by the US government shutdown and the Fed's stance in October, but demand decline restricts prices. Silver prices at historical highs may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [5] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk to the US dollar's credit. Central bank gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 20, 2025, compared with October 17, 2025, London gold spot dropped 2.8%, London silver spot dropped 5.0%, COMEX gold dropped 2.8%, COMEX silver dropped 5.2%, AU2512 dropped 2.9%, AG2512 dropped 4.1%, AU (T + D) dropped 2.9%, and AG (T + D) dropped 4.1% [5] - Regarding price differences, from October 17 to 20, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 27.1%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 24.1%, etc [5] 2. Position Data - From October 16 to 17, 2025, gold ETF - SPDR increased 1.22%, silver ETF - SLV increased 0.48%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1.85%, etc [5] 3. Inventory Data - From October 17 to 20, 2025, SHFE gold inventory had a 0.00% change, SHFE silver inventory dropped 6.98%, COMEX gold inventory dropped 0.10%, and COMEX silver inventory dropped 0.53% [5] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - From October 17 to 20, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased 0.03%, the US dollar index increased 0.21%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased 1.47%, etc [5] 5. Market Review - On October 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.63% to 970.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 3.99% to 11,742 yuan/kilogram [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end, and precious metal prices have stabilized and rebounded. With the realization of profit-taking sentiment in gold prices last week and the unchanged medium- to long-term bullish logic, gold prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile and bullish pattern in the near term. Silver shares the same macro bullish logic as gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes the government shutdown may end this week. If not, the White House will consider stronger measures. U.S. President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals. The U.S. and Australian governments plan to jointly invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next 6 months, with estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia with an annual capacity of 100 tons [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 20, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 989.70 yuan/gram and closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, a change of -2.95% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 990.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.58 yuan/gram, up 2.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 12,057.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,742.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,455,760 lots, and the open interest was 432,663 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,982 yuan/kg and closed at 11,973 yuan/kg, up 1.97% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 20, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.978%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.52%, a change of -0.62 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -65 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -19 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 991,846 lots, a change of 41.62% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,700,983 lots, a change of 20.75% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,047.21 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,497 tons, a decrease of 74 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 22.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -753.22 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.64, a change of 1.49% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 80.19, a change of 0.62% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (October 20, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 71,850 kg, a change of -3.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,658,292 kg, a change of 6.28% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,586 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 139,020 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The Au2512 contract's trading range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1,020 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The Ag2512 contract's trading range may be between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8][9].