Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach in 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with a projected deficit rate around 4%. Special bonds are anticipated to increase slightly compared to 2025, with estimates of 5 trillion yuan in special bonds and approximately 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds [2][3] - Analysts predict that the fiscal policy will focus on "investing in people," with an increase in overall fiscal expenditure and an emphasis on optimizing expenditure structure [2][3] Monetary Policy - There is potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026, with expectations of 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts of 50 to 100 basis points and 1 to 2 interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - Structural policy tools are likely to continue expanding, supporting key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Policy Integration - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating existing and new policies to enhance their effectiveness, suggesting that large-scale economic stimulus measures are unlikely in the short term [4] - The focus will be on optimizing the efficiency of existing policies and resources, including improving credit structures and consolidating various subsidies and support funds [4] Demand-Side Incentives - Demand-side incentives, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue, indicating a sustained effort to promote consumption and improve living standards [5] - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments suggests a balanced approach to addressing both short-term and long-term economic challenges [5]

（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...

今年前三季度累计增长达到5.2%，为全年实现目标奠定良好基础。在"十五五"期间，高质量发展仍需统筹好量的合理增长和质的有效提升。 明年的宏观政策导向，决定明年宏观调控的力度和节奏，因而市场高度关注。首先，会议强调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。这表 明国内国际双循环动能将成为驱动明年经济工作的主动力。展望"十五五"，国际经贸形势可能日趋复杂多变，一些经济体的保护主义势力扩大 将对经济全球化和国际贸易施加不利影响。而在当前内需还需提振的情况下，出口仍是拉动经济增长的重要驱动。值得注意的是，在今年国际 经贸不确定性升级的背景下，中国出口仍交出亮眼"成绩单"：11月出口逆势反弹，在较高基数下实现更快增长；前11月出口累计增长6.2%，显 示出中国外贸在国际经贸斗争中更显成色，更加"韧劲十足"。 其次，会议指出，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。会议提出，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，与去年中央经济工作会议的表述相同，延续"宽财政+宽货币"的政策组合导向。会议强调要"加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度"，重提"跨周期"调节，表明宏观政策会根据经济增长和物价 ...

会议肯定了今年以来我国经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"的态势，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出 新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 对明年的经济工作，会议指出要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理 效能。 在多位受访人士看来，今年宏观经济在复杂多变的内外部环境下依然展现出一定的韧性，"十四五"平稳 收官，"十五五"蓄势待发。从政策基调看，明年的政策基调在于既有政策框架内执行的"质"和"效"，将 政策效力落到实处。从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，政策重心从稳增长走向调结构。 稳增长与提质增效并重 回溯去年12月召开的政治局会议，彼时已明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完 善政策工具箱。货币政策方面，告别沿用十多年的"稳健"，"适度宽松"重回政策视野。在财政政策方 面，"实施更加积极的财政政策" 为狭义财政赤字和广义赤字提升释放了预期信号。 而在今年12月政治局会议中再次明确，2026年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极 的财政 ...

Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The focus has shifted from "stability while seeking progress" to "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," indicating a stronger emphasis on the quality and effectiveness of long-term growth [2][4] Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, with a probability of meeting the annual target of around 5.0%, but the growth rate fell to 4.8% in the third quarter, highlighting weakening growth momentum and structural issues [4] - Key economic challenges include limited consumer spending power, insufficient innovation capacity, and pressures on the real economy from rising costs and financing constraints [4][6] Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [5][6] - Experts suggest maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% to signal continued fiscal expansion and stabilize social expectations [6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The monetary policy will focus on structural tools, with recent adjustments including rate cuts and the introduction of new monetary policy frameworks [8][9] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a shift towards addressing medium- to long-term structural issues rather than solely relying on traditional counter-cyclical measures [9] Domestic Demand and Risk Management - The meeting stresses the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth and the need for innovative and high-quality development [11] - There is a focus on addressing key risks in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with proposals for systemic policy measures to stabilize the housing market [14]

Daily Spotlight 9 December 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,765 | (1.2) | 28.4 | | HSCEI | 9,084 | (1.2) | 24.6 | | HSCCI | 4,218 | (1.0) | 11.6 | | MSCI HK | 13,724 | (0.4) | 29.9 | | MSCI CHINA | 85 | (0.7) | 30.7 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,370 | 0.9 | 13.7 | | CSI 300 | 4,622 | 0.8 | 17.5 | | TWSE | 28,304 | 1.2 | 22.9 | | SENSEX | 85,712 | 0.5 | 9.7 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,582 | 0.2 | 26.8 | | KOS ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, indicating that a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue into 2026, suggesting a sustained loose funding environment for the commodity market [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is expected to create a macro backdrop that supports the commodity market [3][9]. - Attention should be paid to the language used in future statements, particularly phrases like "increase macro control" and "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," which may indicate a stronger policy commitment and boost market sentiment [3][9]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Considerations - Key focus areas include the deficit rate and the scale of special bonds, which reflect the government's leverage efforts. If these exceed market expectations, it suggests a more aggressive push for economic growth, positively impacting demand for commodities like copper and stock index futures [10][11]. - The allocation of funds will be crucial, whether directed towards "new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects," or towards "large-scale equipment updates" and "consumer goods replacement," influencing demand trends in various commodity sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Real Estate - The extent of monetary policy adjustments will directly signal liquidity levels. Confirmation of a continued loose monetary stance could lower financing costs and enhance market risk appetite, potentially directing funds into the futures market [12][13]. - The real estate market's stabilization in 2026 is critical for the price trends of black commodities. The absence of specific mentions regarding the real estate market in this year's meeting raises questions about potential new policies to stabilize the sector [13]. Group 4: Market Expectations and New Opportunities - The market often reacts to new expectations, so the conference's potential establishment of quantifiable targets for consumption or investment growth, or emphasis on new investment areas like "AI+" or "green consumption," could inject new trading momentum into relevant sectors [5][12]. - The final outcomes will depend on the official communiqué released after the conference, with potential for increased price volatility during the meeting as market expectations evolve [5][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 1.675 trillion yuan, up 0.2% [7]. - Many experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and continue to moderately increase the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, etc., making the new government debt scale in 2026 exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 9, 2025, most chemical futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil futures dropped by 2.098% to 448 yuan/ton, and the price of glass futures dropped by 2.096% to 981 yuan/ton. Only a few contracts such as 20 - number rubber, paper pulp, and LPG showed an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand, innovation - driven development, and risk prevention [7]. - China's foreign trade maintained growth in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports growing faster than imports [7]. - The national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of more than 29 trillion yuan from January to November this year, and investigated and recovered 1.523 billion yuan in taxes from 1,818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals [8]. - Domestic refined oil prices had a "two - consecutive decline", with the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel per ton reduced by 55 yuan starting from 24:00 on December 8 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 0.67% to 8,018 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term may continue to be weakly volatile [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 8, the price rose slightly by 0.34% to 5,337 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the short - term may turn to a shock, with limited upside space [13]. - Corn futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 1.57% to 2,261 yuan/ton. The supply is tight in the short - term, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up the price [13]. - Cotton futures: On December 8, the price was flat at 13,750 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, and the demand is marginally improved. The short - term is expected to be range - bound [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic market price is weakly running. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is improving. The futures price may have a phased callback risk [15]. - Caustic soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The Shandong region is expected to be stable, and the East China region continues to be weakly running [15]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term is under pressure and weakening [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro risks [19]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in an oversupply pattern, and the contract is running at a low level [19]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory contradiction is not significant, but it is temporarily dragged down by raw materials and is expected to have limited downward space [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures: On December 8, the three major indexes opened high and went high, and the trading volume increased. The spring market consensus is gathering. It is recommended to balance the allocation of relevant indexes [20].

中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动， 加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大， 努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 ...

宏观经济点评 提质增效，科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习 ——宏观经济点评 | | | shenmeichen@kysec.cn hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 1.形势判断：会议对"十四五"成就满意，综合国力有所提升。短期看，会议指出"（2025 年）经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，指向全年大概率完成 5%的经济发展目标。 中期看，会议对"十四五"成果满意，指出"我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、 制度、外交等软实力明显提升，'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征 程实现良好开局"。 相关研究报告 《推动基础设施 REITs 扩围—宏观周 报》-2025.12.7 《通向供需新均衡—2026 年宏观展 望》-2025.12.2 《工业生产与需求边际走弱—宏观经 济专题》-2025.12.1 2.经济目标：经济工作稳中求进、提质增效，预计 2026 年经济目标可能略低于 5%， 对总量增长有一定容忍度，重点是结构调整和科技突破。会议指出 ...