首次在中央文件提出"五个必须"，这既是对去年经济工作规律性认识的总结和升华，又对明年经济工作具有重要指导意义 文｜《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 回顾即将过去的2025年，会议指出，今年是"很不平凡的一年"。中国社科院美国研究所研究员、副所长徐奇渊向《财经》表示，今年的确很不平 凡，2024年末，在中美贸易摩擦背景下，国内外诸多经济学家对今年的经济增长呈悲观态度，各类国际经济机构对今年中国经济增速的预测只是 略高于4%，但是后来我们都看到，中国经济扛住了关税战的冲击，外部环境还实现了阶段性缓和。今年外贸表现大超预期，总体经济增速也较平 稳，近期国际经济机构普遍上调中国增速预期，这表明中国经济具有较大韧性。 对于全年的经济增速，中国金融四十人研究院预计，在上一轮增量政策的支持下，全年5%的增长目标能如期实现，四季度经济仍能保持平稳运 行。 《财经》注意到，12月以来，多家国际机构也上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月预测上调0.2个百分点。世界 银行预测为4.9%，较6月 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济 工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为实现"十五五"良好开局定向领航。 这一年，中国经济表现如何？如何看待当前经济形势？"十五五"规划开局之年，经济工作的重点任务有哪 些？ 不断深化新形势下 做好经济工作的规律性认识 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。中央经济工作会议总结今年经济运行情况，指出"经济社会发展主要目标 将顺利完成""'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局"。 国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任邹蕴涵介绍，今年以来，全球经济增长持续放缓，我国经 济总体保持平稳发展态势。各方积极性、主动性充分调动，各类宏观政策持续加力显效，共同推动经济的 内生增长动力不断壮大，全年各项指标将顺利完成，我国的经济高质量发展迈出坚实步伐。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必 须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 新时代以来 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the currency in circulation (M0) was 13.74 trillion yuan, growing by 10.6% year-on-year [1] - In the first eleven months, a net cash injection of 917.5 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2 - In terms of loans, the total increase in RMB loans for the first eleven months was 15.36 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 533.3 billion yuan, short-term loans decreasing by 732.8 billion yuan, and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.27 trillion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 14.4 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up by 4.44 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans rising by 8.49 trillion yuan, alongside a 1.31 trillion yuan increase in bill financing [1] - Non-bank financial institution loans decreased by 33.2 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - Experts indicate that the slowdown in loan growth reflects the transition of economic drivers from traditional investment to consumption, with reduced reliance on bank loans for new growth points [1] - The marginal benefits of traditional investment-driven models are diminishing, and the orderly resolution of local debt risks is underway [1] - Economic growth is shifting towards consumption-driven models, with daily consumer spending largely relying on personal funds, leading to lower financing demands [1]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to address both old problems and new challenges in China's economy while maintaining confidence in long-term growth prospects [1][2]. Economic Policy Direction - The conference sets a tone of "steadfast confidence, leveraging advantages, and responding to challenges" for economic work in the coming year [1]. - The focus will be on "stabilizing while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" in policy formulation, indicating a shift from short-term stimulus to long-term development planning [1][2]. Incremental and Stock Policy - The meeting highlights the importance of "optimizing increment and revitalizing stock," indicating a systematic restructuring towards higher efficiency and sustainability in policy, industry, and investment [3][4]. - Specific areas of focus include real estate, fiscal policy, and investment, with strategies such as "city-specific policies to control increment, reduce inventory, and optimize supply" [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to adopt a moderately loose stance, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5][6]. - The emphasis will be on enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy through structural tools while maintaining a balance between increment and stock [5][7]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will reflect the principles of optimizing increment and implementing stock, with higher demands for fiscal discipline and spending efficiency [8][9]. - Predictions indicate that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas and a shift in spending towards social welfare, education, and technology [8][9].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 在政治局会议提出"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"基础上，12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议， 对财政重点发力和政策方向做了进一步工作部署。 本次中央经济工作会议延续了"实施更加积极的财政政策"的提法。会议提出，保持必要的财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解 决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅对《华夏时报》记者表示，这样的提法，表示"必选项"的宏观政 策或保持相对稳健。与此同时，会议延续了前期政治局会议"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的相关表 述，也充分表明，在继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的基础上，还存在相机抉择的 可能性，一旦经济出现明显波动，通过增量政策实现逆周期和跨周期的调节，确保经济平稳运行。 远东资信研究院副院长、首席宏观研究员张林也对《华夏时报》记者表示，与去年会议"加大财政支出 强度"的表述不同，本次会议在表述口吻上相对弱化，预计2026年全国两会公布的预算赤字大概率仍为 4%，对应约5.9万亿元财政赤字，地 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] - The conference highlighted the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth [1] Group 2 - On December 11, various thematic ETFs, including satellite and consumer ETFs, showed significant gains, with the E Fund Satellite ETF (563530) leading the market with a 1.48% increase [1] - The satellite industry sector and related ETFs have been among the top performers in the A-share market for the second time this week [1] Group 3 - Since December, the bond, technology innovation, and A500 sectors have been the main directions for capital inflow into the ETF market, with several ETFs, including the Jiashi China AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond ETF and Huatai-PB China A500 ETF, seeing net inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan this month [1] - Despite some Hang Seng Technology ETFs showing negative returns in early December, the net inflow for related products during the same period remained significant [1]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 会议强调，要适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办 法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 明年超长期特别国债规模预计跟今年持平或略有增长 NBD：这次中央经济工作会议提到，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。国际上有一个 3%赤字率警戒线的说法，您认为明年财政赤字率可能在什么范围？ 施正文：赤字率提高是实施更加积极的财政政策的一项重要内容。根据去年赤字率及当前经济形势判 断，2026年的赤字率预计不会低于4%，可能会维持在4%左右或略有提升。 2025年的经济形势达到预期，仍在恢复中，明年扩内需依旧需要财政支出持续发力。赤字率的提高意味 着可以有更充足的财力，政府就可以加大财政支出强度。而且，经济环境面临挑战的时候，我们还需 要"放水养鱼"，所以可能还会推出一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for policy support and reform innovation to address current economic challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The conference highlighted five essential approaches for economic work under the new circumstances, including fully tapping economic potential and ensuring a balance between policy support and reform innovation [3]. - Emphasis was placed on maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to economic governance, integrating existing and new policies for effective outcomes [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference called for increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy [5]. - It was noted that maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures is crucial for addressing local fiscal difficulties [5]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Key Economic Tasks for 2026 - Eight key tasks for economic work in 2026 were identified, including: 1. Fostering a strong domestic market driven by internal demand [8]. 2. Accelerating innovation to cultivate new growth drivers [8]. 3. Enhancing quality development through reform efforts [8]. 4. Promoting multi-field cooperation and openness [8]. 5. Encouraging coordinated development for urban-rural integration and regional synergy [8]. 6. Leading with "dual carbon" initiatives for comprehensive green transformation [8]. 7. Prioritizing people's livelihoods by addressing practical issues for the public [8]. 8. Safeguarding against risks in key areas through proactive and prudent measures [8].

资料图 21世纪经济报道记者王峰北京报道 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议对2025年做出了"我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发 展"的重要判断。 这一局面来之不易，特别是2024年9月26日中央政治局会议果断部署一揽子增量政策，使社会信心有效提振，经济明显回升，2025年宏观政策 贯彻落实了多项超常规逆周期调节举措。 对于2026年经济工作，中央经济工作会议提出"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，其中对多项宏观政策的部署，措辞则从2025年的"加大""加 强""增加""扩大"等，转为更加注重"保持""优化"。同时，会议提出了多项新举措、新任务。 此次中央经济工作会议释放了哪些新信号，21世纪经济报道记者进行了梳理和解读。 信号一：继续实施更加积极的财政政策 会议指出，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决 地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 会议还指出，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理。 坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，位列重点任务首位。会 ...