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热点思考 | 封锁“霍尔木兹”,不可信的承诺?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-25 12:38
关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 6月以来,伊以冲突升温的背景下,伊朗一度威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗进行海峡封锁的可行性、可能 性与潜在影响?本文分析,可供参考。 一、封锁"霍尔木兹"的可能性?两重约束下可能性较低,市场也并不"买单" 近期,伊朗再度威胁要封锁霍尔木兹海峡。 6月13日,以色列针对伊朗发起"Rising Lion"行动,伊朗随即 展开报复。6月22日,伊朗议会通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决议,只差最高国家安全委员会做出批准。6月 24日,伊以宣布停火,但停火后双方仍有摩擦,冲突尚未完全平息。 伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡具有较高可行性,但面临经济约束与海湾国家的压力。 一方面,伊朗深受滞胀困 扰,封锁海峡对伊朗财政收入有明显冲击;另一方面,伊拉克、沙特等海湾国家高度依赖石油开采,贸 然封锁也会加深与其他中东邻国的隔阂。这或成伊朗封锁海峡的主要掣肘。 6月24日伊以宣布停火后,市场对封锁海峡的担忧已明显退坡。 1)Polymarket隐含的伊朗2025年封锁海 峡的可能性已由53%回落至17%。2)在伊以宣布停火后,油价已跌至6月12日伊以冲突爆发 ...
金价跌至六月以来新低点,地缘风险缓和成核心驱动因素
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 10:37
本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 金价跌至6月以来新低,主要受多重因素叠加影响,以下是综合分析: ⚙️ 一、核心原因:地缘冲突缓和与避险情绪消退 以伊达成停火协议 美国总统特朗普于6月24日宣布以色列与伊朗同意"全面停火,中东紧张局势迅速降温。此前市场因冲突 升级预期推高黄金避险需求,停火后资金从黄金等避险资产撤离,转向风险资产(如美股、原油股)。 市场风险偏好回升 停火消息推动全球股市集体上涨(如美股三大指数涨超1%),油价暴跌(美油、布油单日跌幅超 7%),进一步削弱黄金的避险吸引力。 二、货币政策与美元影响 美联储降息预期推迟 美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上强调需观察关税对通胀的影响,暗示不急于降息。市场对7月降息预 期降温,转向押注9月降息(概率升至70%以上)。高利率环境压制非生息资产黄金的价格。 美元阶段性走强 美国经济数据(如就业、通胀)显示韧性,美元指数虽因停火消息短暂回落,但实际利率上行趋势令黄 金持有成本增加。美元走强直接压制以美元计价的国际金价。 三、技术性抛售与市场情绪 技术面破位触发抛盘 金价跌破关键支撑位(如3300美元/盎司)引发程序化交易平仓,加剧抛压。6月25日现货黄金一度 ...
非农数据如何影响金价?金盛贵金属解析市场波动逻辑与投资机遇
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-06-25 09:26
一、非农数据与金价的动态关联:2025 年 6 月最新行情透视 2025 年 6 月 6 日,美国劳工部公布的 5 月非农就业数据成为全球金融市场的 "风向标"。数据显示,新 增就业人数达 13.9 万,超出预期的 13 万,失业率维持在 4.2%,而平均时薪同比涨幅达 3.9%,高于预 期的 3.7%。这一超预期表现迅速引发市场连锁反应:美元指数与美债收益率同步飙升,纽约商品交易 所 8 月黄金期货价格单日下跌 0.84%,收于每盎司 3346.60 美元。这一波动背后,折射出非农数据通过 货币政策预期与避险情绪对金价的双重影响机制: 货币政策预期:强劲的就业数据强化了市场对美联储推迟降息的预期,持有黄金的机会成本上升,导致 投资者转向美元及高息资产,黄金需求下降。 避险情绪消退:就业市场的稳健表现缓解了经济衰退担忧,投资者风险偏好升温,黄金作为避险资产的 吸引力减弱。 二、非农数据影响金价的深层逻辑:行业报告与历史规律 通胀与利率博弈:薪资增速超预期可能加剧通胀压力,但若经济增长同步放缓,市场可能陷入 "滞胀" 担忧,黄金的抗通胀属性将凸显。 市场情绪波动:数据公布后的 15 分钟至 1 小时内,金价往往 ...
金十图示:2025年06月25日(周三)上海金午盘价为0元/克,较国际金价(768.13元/克),低768.13元/克
news flash· 2025-06-25 07:05
金十图示:2025年06月25日(周三)上海金午盘价为0元/克,较国际金价(768.13元/克),低768.13元/克 现货黄金 ...
美联储资产负债表与铂金价格的非线性回归分析:探寻两者隐秘关联
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 06:28
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the complex non-linear relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and platinum prices, suggesting that traditional linear models may not adequately capture this dynamic [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and contraction are crucial tools for implementing monetary policy, significantly impacting global financial markets [2]. - During periods of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded dramatically, injecting liquidity into the market and altering the supply-demand dynamics and risk preferences in financial markets [2]. Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum is viewed as a safe-haven asset and a store of value due to its unique industrial uses and scarcity, with its price influenced by various factors including global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and overall market environment [2]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and platinum prices is expected to be non-linear, which is essential for understanding the price formation mechanism of platinum [2][3]. Group 3: Research Methodology - The study employs a non-linear regression model, specifically a polynomial regression model, to analyze the relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size and platinum prices [6][7]. - Monthly data from 2008 to 2023 is utilized, with data sourced from the Federal Reserve's official website and the London Platinum and Palladium Market [7]. Group 4: Empirical Analysis - Descriptive statistics indicate volatility in both platinum prices and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size, particularly during quantitative easing periods [9]. - A third-degree polynomial regression model is identified as the optimal model, effectively capturing the non-linear relationship between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and platinum prices [10]. Group 5: Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - The findings reveal a significant non-linear relationship, where the initial expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet positively influences platinum prices, but this effect diminishes and eventually turns negative as the balance sheet grows [11]. - Investors are advised to monitor changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and adjust platinum investment strategies accordingly, while policymakers should consider the non-linear impacts of monetary policy on precious metal markets [12][13].
金价最新波动显著,市场震荡中分析师预测未来趋势趋稳上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 04:26
Recent Price Fluctuations - As of June 25, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $3322.93 per ounce, a drop of $46 (1.37%) from the previous day, marking a two-week low [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased to 1012 yuan per gram, with a daily drop of 8 yuan, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market price has fallen to 785 yuan per gram [1] - Compared to early April, when gold prices peaked at 1033 yuan per gram due to risk aversion, the recent cumulative decline exceeds 20% [1] Reasons for the Decline - The easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran by Trump, has led to a significant reduction in safe-haven demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with Powell indicating the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, has delayed interest rate cuts until September [3] - Technical factors have also played a role, as gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3350, triggering programmatic selling [4] Core Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical events and risk aversion have historically driven gold prices, with conflicts in the Middle East causing spikes in gold prices. The recent ceasefire has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds [5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach and a strong dollar are putting downward pressure on gold prices [6] - The U.S. fiscal deficit, potentially increased by Trump's "big and beautiful" plan by $2.8 trillion, could be a long-term positive for gold [7] - Inflationary pressures from tariffs, with an average U.S. tariff rate of 16%, are currently exerting short-term pressure on gold prices due to delayed transmission effects [8] Consumption and Investment Trends - Investment options include gold ETFs, which have low entry barriers and high liquidity, making them suitable for ordinary investors [10] - Bank paper gold offers no storage costs and supports regular investment, appealing to long-term savers [10] - Physical gold provides psychological security but comes with high premiums and low liquidity, attracting those with inheritance needs or extreme risk aversion [10] Future Outlook - Short-term (1-3 months): Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3300-$3400 range, with potential breakthroughs dependent on escalations in Middle Eastern conflicts or signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [12] - Key observation points include Powell's congressional testimony on June 25 and the stability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement [13][14] - Long-term (2026): Predictions vary significantly, with bullish forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America suggesting gold could reach $4000 due to central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit, while bearish views from Citigroup predict a drop to $2500 due to weak investment demand [15][16]
鲍威尔赴国会山接受“拷问”,是否将松口放鸽提振黄金?听证会正在直播中,速来围观>>
news flash· 2025-06-24 14:15
鲍威尔赴国会山接受"拷问",是否将松口放鸽提振黄金?听证会正在直播中,速来围观>> 相关链接 同传直播 ...
金价小跌8元!2025年6月24日各大金店黄金价格多少钱一克?
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-24 07:32
6月24日国内黄金市场动态:品牌金店首饰金价终于出现下跌,整体跌幅不算很大,最高跌幅在13元/ 克。具体来看,今日周生生黄金仅跌了5元/克,报价1013元/克,又是最高价金店了。菜百黄金稳定发 挥,继续保持990元/克的最低价。今日品牌金店价差23元/克(1013元/克-990元/克),价差小了点。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格: 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1007 元/克 5 跌 六福黄金价格 1012 8 跌 周六福黄金价格 992 元/克 元/克 8 跌 周大福黄金价格 1012 元/克 13 跌 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月24日) 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1012 元/克 8 跌 老凤祥黄金价格 1012 元/克 6 跌 潮宏基黄金价格 1012 元/克 8 跌 周生生黄金价格 1013 元/克 5 跌 菜百黄金价格 990 目前黄金价格小跌,铂金价格反而出现上涨。以周生生黄金为例,今日黄金饰品价格小跌5元/克,铂金 饰品价格上涨13元/克,报价525元/克。若您还关注其他品牌铂金报价(如老凤祥、周大福等),欢迎 留言告知!我们将实时汇总更新,助您一手掌握市场动态。 ...
金十图示:2025年06月24日(周二)上海金午盘价为769.24元/克,较国际金价(766.85元/克),高2.39元/克
news flash· 2025-06-24 07:04
现货黄金 金十图示:2025年06月24日(周二)上海金午盘价为769.24元/克,较国际金价(766.85元/克),高2.39元/克 ...