Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.24% to 3568.39, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 10962.19, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49% to 2311.14 [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise, with notable gains in Huahong Semiconductor, which increased over 6%, and other companies like SMIC, Lenovo Group, and Xiaomi Group also following suit [2][4] Sector Performance - The aerospace and military sector experienced a significant rally, with stocks like Aileda hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies such as Aerospace Electronics and Great Wall Military also seeing substantial gains [5][7] - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Chifeng Jilong Gold increasing over 5%, and other companies like Shandong Gold and Shanjin International also showing positive performance [8][9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell significantly short of expectations, leading to increased market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts, which in turn drove gold prices to surpass $3400 per ounce [9][10] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the fourth consecutive time, while also revising its inflation forecast for 2025, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Recent US non-farm employment data for July fell significantly below expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook, which is expected to support gold prices in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 4, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 3.46%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (8.98%) and Shandong Gold (8.15%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 3.00%, with a latest price of 1.2 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 6.76% over the past three months, ranking it in the top 1/6 among comparable funds [3][4] - The Gold Stock ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover of 11.7% and a transaction value of 4.2544 million yuan [3] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Gold Stock ETF has achieved a net value increase of 17.74% over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [4] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception was 16.59%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 31.09% [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.10, placing it in the top 2/6 among comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4] Group 3: Index Composition - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index accounted for 66.02% of the index, with Zijin Mining (10.84%) and Shandong Gold (10.02%) being the largest contributors [5][7] - The index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and military sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, while gold stocks are also rising collectively, driven by geopolitical tensions and market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy changes [1][8][11]. Market Overview - As of August 4, the A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.24% to 3568.39, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 10962.19, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49% to 2311.14 [2]. - The aerospace and military sector showed notable gains, with stocks like Aileda reaching a 20% limit up, and other companies such as Aerospace Electronics and Changcheng Military Industry also experiencing significant increases [5][7]. Sector Performance - The aerospace and military sector led the market with a rise of 3.28%, followed by banking and industrial machinery sectors, while biotechnology and retail sectors faced adjustments [3]. - Gold stocks collectively rose, with notable increases in companies like Chifeng Gold, which rose over 5%, and Shandong Gold, among others [9][10]. Geopolitical Influence - Increased geopolitical tensions are driving global military spending into an upward cycle, which is expected to expand the military trade market. This trend, combined with improved domestic substitution capabilities, is likely to drive a revaluation of the military sector [7]. U.S. Monetary Policy Impact - The market's expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have intensified following disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, leading to a surge in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3400 per ounce [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold stocks have collectively strengthened due to rising risk aversion, driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which has led to an increase in gold prices [1][2] - The non-farm employment report indicated an increase of 73,000 jobs in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The gold price surged by $40 following the non-farm data release, closing at $3,363 per ounce, erasing previous losses [2] Group 2 - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze gold prices through 2025, with central bank purchases providing strong support [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and investment demand [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 49.71% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Shandong Gold [4]

美国劳工部统计局最新公布的数据显示，美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万 个，同时5月、6月的新增就业岗位总数被大幅下调，较之前公布的水平合计减少了25.8万个，修正后， 分别仅有1.4万人和1.9万人。8月1日，受7月非农就业数据大幅不及预期影响，降息预期升温，金价直线 飙升，COMEX期货价格一举突破3400美元。 华源证券指出，下半年，预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支撑，建议关注阶段性 配置机会。长期来看，"降息交易"+"特朗普2.0"双主线将在2025年持续催化，大国博弈背景下，央行增 储将对金价形成强有力底部支撑，金价上行动能充足。 盘面上，8月4日，黄金股领涨，涨超6%，山金国际、涨逾4%，揽尽行业龙头的有色龙头ETF （159876）场内价格盘中涨逾1．2%，现涨0．79%。 值得关注的是，根据基金公告，有色龙头ETF实施基金份额拆分，拆分日为8月1日，拆分比例为1：2， 即每1份基金份额拆成2份。基金拆分，是在基金资产总值不变的前提下，通过增加基金份额数量来降低 基金单位净值。对原基金持有人来说，个人资产总额不变，基金投资标的不变。但能够降低净值，降低 ...

本文源自智通财经网 消息面上，美国劳工部统计局最新公布的数据显示，美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万个，远低于市场预 期的11万个，同时5月、6月的新增就业岗位总数被大幅下调，较之前公布的水平合计减少了25.8万个， 修正后，分别仅有1.4万人和1.9万人。8月1日，受7月非农就业数据大幅不及预期影响，降息预期升温， 金价直线飙升，COMEX黄金期货价格一举突破3400美元。 华源证券指出，中期来看，"特朗普2.0"主线中的关税和减税交易或在后续趋向平稳，"降息交易"将为 黄金价格上涨提供较强动能，上周五非农低于预期后更是直接大涨40美元，抹去此前全部跌幅并收于 3363美元/盎司，下半年我们预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支撑，建议关注阶 段性配置机会。长期来看，"降息交易"+"特朗普2.0"双主线将在2025年持续催化，保护主义+大国博弈 背景下，央行增储将对金价形成强有力底部支撑，金价上行动能充足。 智通财经获悉， 黄金股集体走高，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)涨7.36%，报10.8港元；赤峰黄金(06693) 涨6.29%，报24.5港元；山东黄金(01787)涨5.19%，报25. ...

Group 1 - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Lingbao Gold increasing by 7.36% to HKD 10.8, Chifeng Gold up 6.29% to HKD 24.5, Shandong Gold rising 5.19% to HKD 25.56, and Zhaojin Mining up 4.72% to HKD 20.4 [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with May and June's job additions revised down by a total of 258,000 [1] - Following the disappointing non-farm employment data, interest rate cut expectations increased, leading to a surge in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures breaking through USD 3,400 [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities indicated that the "Trump 2.0" theme involving tariffs and tax cuts may stabilize in the medium term, while "rate cut trades" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases [2] - After the non-farm data fell short of expectations, gold prices surged by USD 40, erasing previous losses and closing at USD 3,363 per ounce [2] - The expectation is that changes in U.S. monetary policy will support gold prices in the second half of the year, with a dual catalyst of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" continuing to drive gold prices until 2025 [2]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with US indices experiencing declines: Nasdaq down -0.1%, S&P 500 down -0.3%, and Dow Jones down -1.0%[3] - European markets saw gains, with Germany's DAX up +2.0%, France's CAC40 up +1.7%, and UK's FTSE 100 up +1.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam's VN30 index led gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's SENSEX30 indices experienced pullbacks[3] Tariff Impact - The reintroduction of tariffs has created significant uncertainty for TACO transactions, with US tariffs on the EU exceeding expectations, ranging from 25% to 50% effective August 1[3] - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 35% tariff on Canada, indicates a strategy of "maximum pressure" on allies, potentially disrupting market perceptions of TACO transactions[3] - According to TAX FOUNDATION, the weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, leading to an estimated annual tariff revenue of $665.91 billion based on a $4.1 trillion import scale for 2024[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Divergence in interest rate cut expectations has increased, influenced by tariff uncertainties; some Fed officials express caution regarding inflation impacts from tariffs[3] - The latest FOMC minutes indicate a preference for observing tariff impacts before deciding on rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut starting in September[3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed, including social media calls for rate cuts, adds complexity to the interest rate outlook, with market volatility expected until September[3] Investment Strategy - The unexpected tariffs may impact TACO transactions and short-term market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks and gold[3] - Long-term investment recommendations include positioning in US Treasuries and XBI, which may benefit from strengthened rate cut expectations[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]

Core Viewpoint - Company is positioned as a leading gold enterprise in China with strong growth momentum, projecting EPS of 0.92 CNY and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a CAGR of 62% [1] Group 1: Growth Potential - The company holds a 70% stake in the Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to produce 15-20 tons of gold annually upon reaching full capacity, with an estimated annual production attributable to the company of 10.5-14 tons, potentially becoming one of the largest operating gold mines in China [2] - The average unit cost of ore extraction is projected to be 340 CNY/ton, with early mining of high-grade ore (approximately 6 g/ton) expected to yield better profits [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The company successfully privatized Tietto Minerals in June 2024 and completed the acquisition of West African Gold, marking the beginning of its international expansion [3] - Tietto holds 88% of the Abujar open-pit gold project in Côte d'Ivoire, with an expected average annual gold production of 5.28 tons over the next nine years, indicating strong profitability potential [3] - West African Gold has the Komahoun Gold Mine, with an annual production capacity of up to 1.77 tons, supporting the company's strategy to achieve a "dual H" development model with equal domestic and international operations [3] Group 3: Management and Governance - Zijin Mining became the second-largest shareholder of the company in 2022, holding 44% of the Haiyu Gold Mine, facilitating collaboration in five key areas: system mechanisms, investment development, technological innovation, talent cultivation, and industrial development [4] - The management team underwent a reshuffle in 2023, leading to significant improvements in governance, with a continuous decline in expense ratios since 2022, enhancing internal and external growth and profitability [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The onset of interest rate cuts is expected to create upward pressure on gold prices, with actual interest rates declining, thus providing space for gold price increases [5] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to continue, with increasing demand for gold purchases, particularly from emerging countries, as global central banks maintain strong gold buying momentum [5] Group 5: Long-term Growth Outlook - The company is expected to achieve sustainable growth over the next three to five years through internal and external expansion, with a focus on converting quality resource layouts into capacity expansion and long-term performance support [6] Group 6: Catalysts - Potential catalysts for growth include rising gold prices and progress in company projects and capacity expansion exceeding expectations [7]

Group 1 - The long-term outlook suggests that the combination of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze gold prices until 2025, supported by central bank reserves amid protectionism and great power competition [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market and economic performance may extend the current Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, but there remains significant policy space, increasing the window for bullish gold positions [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand is projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 4,899 tons in 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases and rising investment demand [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the domestic central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,383 million ounces, an increase of 6,000 ounces from the end of April, marking seven consecutive months of accumulation [1] - The gold ETF tracks the spot gold contract (Au99.99) launched by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing a standardized tool for investors to participate directly in the gold market [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider specific gold ETFs, such as Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) [2]