【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间8月8日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%报3482.70美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨1.66%报38.53美元/盎司。 对此有市场分析人士表示，美联储官员对利率政策分歧加剧，美国对瑞士加征关税及墨西哥央行降息增加市场不确定 性，英国央行第五次降息强化宽松预期等因素，共同支撑了黄金价格的持续坚挺。 在此背景下，多家国际机构针对黄金价格的后期走势表达了乐观预期，渣打银行明确提出，未来3个月金价有望触及 3400美元/盎司，未来12个月的金价预估值仍维持在3500美元/盎司。 素有"黄金空头"之称的花旗银行，态度也较此前发生了方向性变化，做出了"空翻多"的分析预判。具体来看，花旗此 前在6月份发布报告，预测金价在2026年可能跌至每盎司2500至2700美元的水平；但日前则对此预判进行了大幅修 正，将未来三个月目标价从3300美元/盎司提至3500美元/盎司。 支撑黄金价格持续坚挺的市场因素则体现在黄金购买需求方面，世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年二季度全球黄金需求 总量达1249吨、同比增长3%，其中ETF投资流入170吨，亚洲地区贡献70吨，上半年 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance among the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% [1] - In terms of sectors, small metals, jewelry, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while biopharmaceuticals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and insurance sectors faced the largest declines [1] - Major capital inflows were observed in the semiconductor, medical device, and energy metal sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Rare Earths - Pacific Securities expressed optimism about the rare earth industry chain, driven by increasing demand and price hikes, particularly in applications such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics [2] - The report highlighted that China leads globally in both the scale and technology of rare earth resource development and has international pricing power [2] - Financial forecasts suggest that rare earth product prices are reasonable and likely to rise further, presenting investment opportunities in the sector [2] Group 3: Medical Device Sector Recovery - Citic Construction Investment noted that the A-share medical device index has been in decline for the past four years but has shown signs of recovery since early 2025 due to policy easing and strategic transformations by companies [3] - The report anticipates that several companies will experience performance and valuation recovery, with high growth expected in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [3] - Related ETFs include Medical Device ETF (159797) and Medical Service ETF (516610) [3] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, there is a probability of short-term gold prices rising again, with a long-term bullish outlook supported by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and ongoing gold purchases by non-U.S. central banks [3] - The total market turnover for gold from January to July 2025 reached 29.05 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.24% [3] - Related ETFs include Gold Stock ETF (159315) and Gold Stock ETF Fund (159321) [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The unexpected decline in the US services PMI data led to a significant drop in the dollar, causing gold prices to surge, reaching a peak of $3390 before closing above $3380, showcasing a remarkable V-shaped recovery [1] - Analysts predict that if gold breaks through the $3400 level, it could continue to rise towards $3410 or even $3415, driven by the weakened dollar index [1] - However, there are warnings against blindly chasing the upward trend, with key resistance identified in the $3420-$3423 range, suggesting a potential shorting opportunity if prices exceed $3418-$3423 [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, lack of interest yield from gold, and increasing US Treasury issuance are expected to exert long-term pressure on gold prices [3] - The current household gold holdings represent 3% of net wealth, the highest in half a century, indicating a potential lack of future buyers for gold [3] - The easing of trade tensions and the lack of escalation in geopolitical conflicts, along with competition from Bitcoin for safe-haven demand, suggest that the gold market may be entering a prolonged downturn [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - The WTI crude oil price has fallen below $65, with supply-demand imbalances exacerbated by US shale oil production countering OPEC's efforts to stabilize prices [4] - The recommendation is to short oil in the $65.6-$66 range, targeting $64 or even $63, as bearish sentiment dominates the market [4] - Despite the downtrend, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, with a suggestion to buy near $63 for short-term gains, but caution is advised as the true bottom for oil prices has not yet been reached [4] Group 4: Summary of Market Trends - The gold market may see a short-term breakthrough above $3400, but caution is warranted above $3415, while the oil market should focus on shorting above $65.6 and consider small long positions near $63 [6] - The overarching trend indicates a long-term bearish outlook for gold and a search for a bottom in the oil market, emphasizing the need to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations [6]

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, international gold prices fluctuated at high levels, briefly surpassing $2300 per ounce, marking a new peak. The second half of 2025 presents mixed market sentiments regarding gold's trajectory, influenced by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and rising attractiveness of risk assets due to improved economic soft landing expectations [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicates that declining interest rates will support gold prices. As inflation cools and core CPI drops to around 3.1%, the Fed has signaled a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in 2025 [2][4] - A 25 basis point rate cut has already occurred, bringing the rate to 4.75%, with another cut anticipated within the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Financial Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, along with emerging market debt risks, contribute to persistent risk aversion among investors. This environment enhances gold's appeal as a traditional hedge against risk [5][6] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 336 tons in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase. Major buyers include China, India, and Russia, driven by diversification of foreign reserves and inflation hedging [8] Group 5: Supply Constraints - Despite high gold prices encouraging some mine restarts, global gold supply is projected to grow only modestly, with an estimated production of 3600 tons in 2025, reflecting a mere 1.3% increase year-on-year. Supply constraints are influenced by environmental regulations, rising costs, and aging mines [8]

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为781.12元/克，上涨1.33%。 影响黄金价格走势的重要因素 1. 非农数据爆冷与降息预期升温：美国7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于预期，6月数据大幅下 修，失业率升至4.2%。这使得市场对美联储9月降息预期从38%激增至90%，甚至有人预测9月可能一次 性降息50个基点。低利率环境下，黄金作为无收益资产的吸引力增强，为金价上涨提供有力支撑。 黄金走势与未来展望 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 近期黄金受非农数据、关税政策及美元等因素影响大幅上涨。短期来看，若美联储如市场预期降息，且 关税问题持续发酵，黄金有望继续上行。不过，美国即将公布的经济数据若超预期，或美联储官员讲话 偏鹰派，可能引发金价回调。长期而言，全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势以及央行购金等因素， 将为黄金提供支撑，使其维持高位震荡并有进一步上行可能。 来源：金融界 2. 关税风暴引发避险需求：特朗普对加拿大、巴西、印度等多国产品加征高额关税，导致全球股市暴 跌，市场避险情绪迅速升温。黄金作为传统避险资产受到投资者追捧，关税政策带来的不确定性强化了 其作为经济对冲 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has risen slightly to $3303 per ounce before the non-farm payroll report [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 10 points, reaching 100.23 [1] Group 2 - The movements in spot gold and the US Dollar Index indicate market reactions ahead of significant economic data releases [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a technical rebound during Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from a significant drop the previous day, and successfully stabilized above the 100-day moving average [1][3] - Prior to this rebound, gold prices had fallen sharply to approximately $3,270, reaching a one-month low due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) turned bearish, indicating that momentum favored sellers, as gold prices dipped below $3,300 per ounce and hit a three-week low [3] Group 2 - In the context of trade negotiations, Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports, criticizing India's purchases of Russian energy and weapons [2] - Economists expressed concerns that the last-minute push for trade agreements could lead to greater economic costs for the countries involved, as they rush to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported constructive discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and macroeconomic policies, emphasizing the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation [2]

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline, trading around 96.37, while gold prices rose to approximately 3310.23 USD/oz, marking a 1.06% increase [1][2]. Economic Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated no specific preference regarding discussions on interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting. This, combined with better-than-expected US macroeconomic data, led to a rise in the dollar index to a two-month high, negatively impacting non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Investors are awaiting new data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which has provided some support for gold prices as dollar bulls have paused their aggressive strategies [3][4]. - Despite pressure from President Donald Trump and allies to lower borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time. This decision faced dissent from two board members, marking the first occurrence of dual dissenting votes since 1993 [3]. Employment and GDP Data - The Automatic Data Processing report indicated that 104,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in July, contrasting with a revised decrease of 23,000 jobs in the previous month. Additionally, the US Commerce Department reported a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [4]. Gold Price Movement - Gold prices fell below an ascending triangle pattern on July 25, and the subsequent decline fulfilled the measured drop from the triangle consolidation. A rebound began from the lower boundary of the range, but upward movement is constrained by bearish moving averages, necessitating a stabilization period for the 10, 20, and 50 EMA before a renewed bullish attack can occur [5].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between hawkish and dovish views within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, leading to a weak performance in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating between 3300 and 3350 [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence - The Federal Reserve's July meeting maintained interest rates, but notable internal dissent emerged, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, while Powell emphasized no decisions had been made regarding September rates [3]. - The core disagreement stems from differing economic outlooks: hawks are concerned about inflation persistence due to tariffs, while doves focus on marginal deterioration in the job market [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 68% in June to 45%, although the market still anticipates at least one cut this year [4]. - Fluctuations in market expectations have caused gold to be influenced by both "policy expectation trading" and "actual data validation," leading to significant price movements [4]. Group 3: Commodity Market Interactions - A stronger dollar and increased risk appetite have impacted other commodity prices, with oil prices rising over 3% and drawing funds away from precious metals [6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price has shown a downward trend, breaking below the previous support level of 3345, with a focus on the 3250 support level [8]. - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with moving averages indicating downward momentum and Bollinger Bands showing a downward trend [8].

Group 1 - The spot gold market has attracted significant investor attention, with prices fluctuating between $3320 and $3335, and currently priced at $3331 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1] - Gold prices have notably broken through the important level of $3330 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to witness a rare occurrence where multiple board members may cast dissenting votes, with members Waller and Bowman publicly supporting interest rate cuts, contrasting with Chairman Powell's cautious stance [2] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly evident, potentially ending the consensus culture that has existed since the 1990s [3] - Historical data indicates that collective dissent among Federal Reserve board members is extremely rare, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2][3] Group 3 - The technical analysis of gold prices shows a complex situation, with previous declines indicating increased bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term rebound [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3328 - $3330 and $3348 - $3350, while $3300 serves as a significant support level [4]