Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, with the purchase scale expected to remain high for several months before significantly reducing [1]. - The decision to cut rates was passed with a 9-3 voting ratio, indicating increasing divisions among committee members [1]. - The median expectation from the "dot plot" suggests a further rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the U.S. dollar weakened, while U.S. stocks and commodities strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined [2]. - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showed positive movements, with the Dow increasing by 497.46 points (+1.05%) and the S&P 500 rising by 46.17 points (+0.67%) [2]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Multiple international investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates 2-3 times in 2026, with terminal rates expected around 3.00%-3.25% [9]. - Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank each forecast two rate cuts in 2026, while Nomura Securities anticipates three cuts [9]. - Analysts attribute the likelihood of further rate cuts to leadership changes rather than economic interpretations, suggesting a shift towards a more dovish Federal Reserve [11].

而亚太地区客运需求依然强劲，中国和印度引领区域增长，主要得益于区域内旅游活动的增加和中产群 体的壮大。中韩放宽团体旅游签证、中国对外籍游客简化入境手续，预计将在短期尤其是节假日高峰刺 激入境需求。由于国际客运复苏放缓，运力过剩依然是一大挑战，收益率因此承压。尽管如此，亚太地 区仍是全球客运增长的最大贡献者。2026年，该地区载客率预计将达到84.4%，创历史新高。 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者郑雪 报道：近日，国际航空运输协会（IATA，简称"国际航协"）发 布全球航空运输业最新财务展望。尽管航空供应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健，2026年全球 航空运输业净利润预计为410亿美元。不过，行业利润率依然薄如蝉翼，航空公司运送一位旅客赚的钱 还没有苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚得多。 根据国际航协的预测，2026年全球航空公司总收入将达1.054万亿美元，同比增长4.5%（2025年预计为 1.008万亿美元）；营业利润将达728亿美元（2025年为670亿美元），营业利润率升至6.9%，2025年预 计为6.6%；净利润预计为410亿美元（2025年为395亿美元），创历史新高，但净利率仍维持在 ...

2025.12.10 本文字数：1341，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈姗姗 当地时间12月9日，国际航空运输协会（下称"国际航协"）发布全球航空业最新财务展望，尽管航空供 应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健。2026年全球航空公司预计实现总净利润410亿美元（2025 年为395亿美元），创历史新高。 "这主要得益于电商和支持AI投资的半导体运输需求旺盛。"沃尔什分析，保护主义治下的美国关税政 策，导致全球贸易流向发生变化，原本供给美国的关税商品转而开辟新市场时，航空货运迅速调整运力 配合。 "航空业为全球经济贡献了近4%的GDP，支撑了8700万个就业岗位，但行业利润率却薄如蝉翼，"国际 航协理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）指出，"苹果公司卖一个iPhone手机壳赚的钱，比航空公司运送 一位旅客赚的7.90美元还多。在整个航空运输价值链中，航空公司利润率与发动机、航电制造商以及许 多服务供应商相比严重失衡。如果能重新平衡价值链利润分配、减轻监管和税收负担、改善基础设施效 率，航空公司将为经济创造更大价值。" 成本方面，2026年的燃油成本预计小幅下降至2520亿美元，较2025 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-6332 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on December 10, particularly in the technology sector, with the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) dropping by 0.74% and trading volume exceeding 470 million yuan [1] - Despite the recent downturn, there has been a significant inflow of funds into the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF, with a net inflow of over 310 million yuan in the past five days as of December 9 [1] - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market is seen as an overreaction influenced by the U.S. market, and it is expected that the market will rebound as interest rate expectations become clearer and concerns over AI bubbles are addressed [1] Group 2 - Alibaba has established a new consumer-facing business group called Qianwen, led by Vice President Wu Jia, which consolidates several existing business units and includes various applications and AI hardware [2] - Guolian Minsheng Securities remains optimistic about the revaluation of AI in China, recommending attention to platform-based internet companies and AI ecosystem enterprises with modeling or application capabilities [2] - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which includes major technology companies listed in Hong Kong, such as SMIC, Kuaishou, Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：承压运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -70 | | 410 | 1030 | 1505 | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22120 | - | | l | - | । | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2887 | | -14 | -2 | 17 | 284 | | | | | | | | ...

记者丨张旭 编辑丨周上祺 东盟稳居第一大贸易伙伴 海关总署数据显示，我国前三大贸易伙伴分别为东盟、欧盟、美国。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家 合计进出口21.33万亿元，增长6%。 具体来看，今年前11个月，我国与东盟贸易总值6.82万亿元，增长8.5%，占我国外贸总值的16.6%；我 国与欧盟贸易总值5.37万亿元，增长5.4%，占我国外贸总值的13%；我国与美国贸易总值3.69万亿元， 下降16.9%，占我外贸总值的8.9%。 近年来，我国与东盟的贸易合作不断深化。中国与东盟自2002年开启自贸区建设进程，2010年自贸区 1.0版全面建成。自贸区建立后，双方对超过90%的产品实行零关税。中国对东盟平均关税从9.8%降到 0.1%，东盟六个老成员国对中国的平均关税从12.8%降到0.6%。 10月28日，中国-东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书在马来西亚吉隆坡签署。3.0版升级议定书涵盖数字经济、 绿色经济、供应链互联互通等9方面内容。 广西壮族自治区东南亚经济与政治研究院信息中心主任丁裕森向21世纪经济报道记者表示，8.5%的增 速不仅表明东盟已成为我国外贸增长的核心引擎，更体现了国家外贸结构的深层次优化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in November, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% year-on-year, driven by strong exports to the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with exports at 24.46 trillion yuan (6.2% growth) and imports at 16.75 trillion yuan (0.2% growth) [1]. - In November alone, exports were 2.35 trillion yuan (5.7% growth) and imports were 1.55 trillion yuan (1.7% growth) [1]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 6.82 trillion yuan (8.5% growth), accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade [3][5]. - Trade with the EU reached 5.37 trillion yuan (5.4% growth), making up 13% of total foreign trade, while trade with the US fell to 3.69 trillion yuan (16.9% decline), representing 8.9% of total foreign trade [3]. Group 3: Trade Structure and Product Categories - The trade structure is optimizing, with mechanical and electrical products dominating exports, totaling 14.89 trillion yuan (8.8% growth), making up 60.9% of total exports [7]. - Exports of labor-intensive products decreased to 3.7 trillion yuan (3.5% decline), now accounting for 15.1% of total exports [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Measures - The outlook for foreign trade in 2026 indicates both opportunities and challenges, with expectations of controlled downward pressure on exports and stable employment in the foreign trade sector [10]. - Proposed measures to support foreign trade include enhancing domestic consumption, providing targeted financial support to export enterprises, and diversifying markets through new trade agreements [10][11].

12月8日，海关总署公布了11月进出口数据。2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长3.6%。其中，出口 24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿元，增长0.2%。 11月份，我国货物贸易增速回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中，出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长1.7%。 海关总署数据显示，我国前三大贸易伙伴分别为东盟、欧盟、美国。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口21.33万亿元，增长6%。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 见习记者张旭 北京报道 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，面对外部环境剧烈波动，今年我国出口韧性较强。 "我国对欧盟、'一带一路'共建国家出口增速显著加快。当前对共建'一带一路'国家出口已占我国整体出口的一半以上，前11个月累计出口增速 达10.5%，明显高于5.4%的整体出口增速。另外，今年全球范围内AI投资大幅度增长，加之我国制造业转型升级效果明显，带动芯片、新能源 汽车等出口持续快速增长，正在对整体出口形成重要支撑。"王青说。 （资料图） 东盟稳居第一大贸易伙伴 对于外贸结构 ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to October[2] - The decline in exports to the US was 28.6%, widening by 3.4 percentage points from October[4] - Exports of integrated circuits and automobiles surged by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively, contributing significantly to the overall export growth[3] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value, with a 0.9 percentage point acceleration from October[7] - Imports of crude oil decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in import prices by 11.1%[8] - The decline in imports from the US was 19.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[9] Market Dynamics - The overall export growth was supported by a shift towards diversified markets, with significant increases in exports to the EU and "Belt and Road" economies, which grew by 14.8% and 10.5% respectively[5] - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to the flexibility and strong pressure resistance of private enterprises, especially in the context of declining US market demand[6] - Future export growth may face challenges due to elevated year-on-year baselines and potential global trade slowdowns, with December exports possibly nearing zero growth[6]