今日周二（12月2日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4200美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4211.31美元/盎司，跌幅0.45%，最高上探至4235.28美元/盎司，最低触及4200.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 在上周，美联储12月降息的概率出现反转，一举超过80%。与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特透露了一个 备受瞩目的消息：特朗普极有可能在圣诞节前正式宣布下一任美联储主席的人选。而在众多潜在候选人 中，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特被视为热门之选。哈塞特一贯秉持支持宽松货币政策的 立场，市场普遍认为，若他成功上任，其政策倾向将比现任美联储主席更具"鸽派"色彩。这一预期使得 交易员们纷纷加大对未来降息的押注力度，进而为金价营造出极为利好的前景。 即便12月美联储并未如市场预期般降息，后续陆续公布的数据却持续表明通胀问题依旧顽固，同时美国 经济仍保持着一定的韧性。在这样的背景下，市场普遍预测，美联储在2026年仍将会持续降低利率，而 这无疑将对黄金形成直接的利好。从长期趋势来看，黄金的上行态势并未发生改变。因此，任何一次回 调触及支撑位的情况，对于投资者而言， ...

美国经济数据疲软加剧市场不确定性 美联储的货币政策一直是影响黄金价格的核心变量，而近期降息预期的升温，更是直接助推了金价的上涨。现货黄金周一收报每盎司4232.08美元，涨幅 0.3%，盘中最高触及4264美元，这是自10月21日以来的峰值。美国期金2月合约也同步上扬0.5%，结算价定格在4274.80美元。造成这一现象的主要原因是， 交易员们对美联储12月降息的概率评估高达88%，这源于美国经济数据的疲软信号和美联储官员的鸽派表态。例如，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆 斯等人的言论，进一步强化了市场对宽松政策的预期。与此同时，美元指数的走软成为黄金上涨的另一大助力。周一美元一度跌至两周低点99.01，尾盘虽 小幅回升至99.41附近，但整体疲态尽显。美元贬值使得持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金的成本降低，从而刺激需求。分析师指出，这种降息预期不仅源于 当前的经济压力，还与通胀水平高于美联储目标有关。尽管通胀压力持续存在，但美联储似乎更倾向于通过降息来刺激经济，这为黄金提供了坚实的支撑基 础。展望未来，如果12月会议如期降息25个基点，金价可能进一步突破现有高点，进入更强劲的上涨通道。 白银暴涨创纪录，年内涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The commodities market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like crude oil face short - term geopolitical - driven price boosts but long - term inventory build - up risks. Precious metals are influenced by economic data and interest - rate expectations. Base metals are affected by supply and demand fundamentals, as well as macroeconomic factors. Energy and chemical products also have their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends [1][2][3]. - **Agricultural Products and Livestock**: Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as planting progress, weather conditions, and supply - demand balance. Livestock prices are related to production cycles and consumption seasons [35][40]. - **Financial Markets**: The stock and bond markets are influenced by macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and international market trends. The stock market shows sector rotation, while the bond market has a structured differentiation [47][48]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions boost short - term prices, but large inventory build - up is expected in the long - term. Consider shorting on price rebounds [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil cost - end fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply is affected by geopolitical risks and mid - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure may ease [21]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market has regional price differences. Demand is weak, and commercial inventory de - stocking slows. It is expected to remain weak [22]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated strongly. Silver reached a new high, while gold should be cautiously traded before breaking through the previous high. Platinum has a supply gap, and palladium is in a tight - balanced supply - demand situation. Consider buying on dips [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. The market is driven by long - term bullish sentiment. Supply is tight, and short - term long positions can be held. Monitor spot premium changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, aluminum prices oscillated at a high level. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it will test the previous high [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc output is expected to decline, and the export window is open. The bottom is well - supported, but the consumption is in the off - season, and the rebound height is limited [7]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1.7 - 1.73 yuan/ton. Supply and demand factors have different impacts on the price [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices face resistance in the rebound. Stainless steel inventory pressure rises. High - level shorting is more reasonable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have high volatility. Supply and demand factors attract capital. Be cautious when chasing high prices [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price fluctuates violently at a high level. The market has large differences, and the fundamentals are strong [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It continues to oscillate. Supply and demand are both weak, and track capital sentiment [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market has a contradiction between trading warrants and positions. The fundamentals are weak, and beware of price corrections [13]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillate narrowly. Demand and supply are both weak, and pay attention to environmental protection policies and macro - policies [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand has some resilience. The price is likely to continue to rebound [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price is likely to be strong in the short - term [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rises and then falls. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounds. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The price rises slightly. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Methanol**: The price rises sharply at night. The market has a multi - short game, and the high - level rise is restricted [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillates weakly. The current supply pressure is large, but future supply may improve [25]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounds slightly, but the short - side pressure still exists [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The prices are weak. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range. Caustic soda is weak, and pay attention to profit changes [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply improves marginally, but it is expected to accumulate inventory in the medium - term [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is normal, while Argentine planting is slow. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal supply is loose [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is supported by domestic factors, and palm oil has supply - demand dynamics and price trends affected by multiple factors [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed supply eases, and the prices are expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: Domestic soybeans oscillate strongly. Pay attention to US soybean sales and South American weather [38]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are affected by supply - demand mismatch and policy factors. Short - term high - level oscillation, and limited medium - term rebound [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton exports decline, and domestic cotton supply pressure is not large. Pay attention to commercial inventory and sales progress [42]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and domestic sugar production expectations are good [43]. - **Apple**: Apple prices oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to inventory reduction [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillates. Low inventory supports the price [45]. - **Pulp**: The price rises slightly. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. It may oscillate in a range [46]. Livestock and Eggs - **Pig**: Pig prices continue to adjust weakly. A second bottom - testing is likely in the first half of next year [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures have a differentiated trend. Do not chase the high price of far - month contracts [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - shares rise unilaterally, and the futures index rises. Short - term macro - liquidity is uncertain, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillate. Participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties [48]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The index drops, and the 12 - contract is expected to be weak. The 02 - contract's trend depends on spot performance, and far - month contracts are bearish [20].

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周一（12月1日）现货黄金价格触及六周高点，每盎司一度攀升至4264美元，而现货白银更是创下历史新高至每盎司58.82美元，美联储降息预期的持续发 酵、美元的疲软走势，以及美国制造业数据的低迷表现，推动贵金属价格进入一个强劲的横盘整理至上涨趋势。作为一种传统的避险资产，黄金和白银在不 确定性加剧的环境中，再次展现出其独特的魅力。周二（12月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4220美元。 本周，市场还将迎来更多关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业报告和周五的9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，后者是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。这些数 据如果继续显示疲软，将进一步巩固降息预期，推动金价走高。 【12.2黄金交易建议】 1，黄金近期波幅较大，黄金稳健回落4186-4189美元附近多，止损4181美元，止盈看4210-4220美元 2，黄金上涨4238-4241美元附近空，止损4246美元，止盈看4220美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，亚盘黄金震荡上行，午后黄金跌至4215美元后上涨，笔者在文章中建议4215-4218美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has driven the precious metals market to rise, with gold reaching a six-week high and silver breaking historical records [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold peaked at $4,232.12 per ounce, while spot silver reached $58.854 per ounce [3]. - Silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 100% this year, significantly outperforming gold and other traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - The weakening U.S. dollar index has fallen to a two-week low, reducing the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold and silver, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals to global funds [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to 87%, with a general belief that lower interest rates will decrease the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that as long as the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut remains strong and inflation stays relatively high, the attractiveness of precious metal assets will not diminish significantly, indicating potential for further price increases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the stock market, delayed Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy signals at the end of the month in the short term [1][3] - For trading strategies, the 2603 contract of treasury bond futures is neutral for unilateral trading; pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis for arbitrage; and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a decrease of 0.20 percentage points and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with an increase of 0.20 percentage points and a growth rate of 0.41% [10] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 99.42, with a decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 0.05%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0710, with a change of 0.000 and a decline rate of 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.18%; DR007 is 1.46, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.60%; R007 is 1.51, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 114.37 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.03%, 0.10%, 0.12%, and - 0.08% [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.037 yuan, - 0.149 yuan, - 0.143 yuan, and - 0.139 yuan respectively [3] - There are multiple figures showing the closing price trends, price changes, capital flow, position ratios, etc. of treasury bond futures [7][12][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased only by 2% year - on - year and slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, the social financing and credit maintained a low - level expansion, while government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. The M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy [2] - On December 1, 2025, the central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.307%, 1.454%, 1.477%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2] - There are multiple figures showing the Shibor rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and local government bond issuance [7][26][29] 3.4 Spread Overview - There are multiple figures showing the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [7][28][33] 3.5 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][36][46] 3.6 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][48][52] 3.7 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][54][56] 3.8 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][61][67]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：24K99 24K99讯 周一（12月1日），黄金价格延续升势，因投资者对美联储本月降息的预期进一步升温，金价一度触及六周高点。不过，因日本央行方面 的消息引发美股、加密货币下跌，金价也出现剧烈波动，最终收盘显著收窄日内涨幅。 金价发生了什么？ FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia指出，周一，黄金价格连续第二个交易日上涨，一度触及高点4264美元/盎司，原因是货币市场预期美联储 将在下周降息。与此同时，美元走软支撑金价。 现货黄金周一亚市早盘一度触及4205.39美元/盎司，创下日内低点。但受美联储降息预期升温推动，金价随后持续反弹。纽约时段早盘，金价一度 飙升至4264.61美元/盎司，为10月21日以来最高水平。 美元跌至两周低点，使黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说，变得相对具有吸引力。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger说："市场预期进一步降息，加上通胀压力仍然高于美联储目标，这些因素仍然是黄金的基本支撑。" 不过，受美股、加密货币等资产波动影响，黄金价格也出现 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：日本央行的鹰派言论引发了对全球流动性收紧的担忧，金价受银价拉动 上涨；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨7.33个基点报4.087%；美元指数跌0.03%报99.41，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.0720；COMEX黄金期货涨0.24%报4265.00美元/盎；中性 2、基差：黄金期货963.28，现货957.5，基差-5.78，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90873千克，增加450千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US November ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, contracting for nine consecutive months, with a weak demand and improving output situation. The market's expectation of a December BOJ interest rate hike rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. In the domestic market, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. A-shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new high, but short - term risks need to be watched. Copper: CSPT may jointly cut production next year, and copper prices hit a record high. Aluminum: Despite the off - season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong. Alumina: Local production cuts may provide temporary support. Cast aluminum: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Zinc: The price center has moved up, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Lead: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is expected to repair strongly. Tin: The macro and micro performances are differentiated, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Industrial silicon: The supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel products: Cost rebounds drive the price to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore: The price is under pressure to oscillate. Coking coal and coke: The price rebounds at a low level, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Bean and rapeseed meal: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Palm oil: It is expected to oscillate within a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, with new orders dropping at the fastest rate since July, factory employment continuing to contract, raw material payment prices rising, and the production index expanding at the fastest rate in four months. The BOJ governor hinted at a possible December interest rate hike, and the market's expectation probability rose to 80%, leading to a stronger yen and a significant increase in Japanese bond yields. The US dollar index fell back to the 99 mark and then rebounded, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%. Silver and copper reached new highs and then fell, while oil prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: The November RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, shifting from expansion to contraction. New export orders grew at the fastest rate in eight months, indicating a recovery in external demand, but the overall sentiment remained in the contraction range. A - shares rose with heavy volume on Monday, and the bond market generally recovered [3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce, with silver hitting a new record high. COMEX platinum and palladium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling and closed slightly lower. The tightness of New York silver spot and potential delivery risks boosted silver prices. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 87%. It's not advisable to chase high in the short term, and the domestic platinum and palladium are expected to be weak [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper approached the 90,000 mark, and LME copper reached a maximum of over 11,300 and then fell. The CSPT plans to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address the distorted copper concentrate processing fees. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, hitting a four - month low. The weak US manufacturing data and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on copper prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain strongly oscillating at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. The LME closed at $2888 per ton, up 0.8%. The aluminum ingot inventory was flat, and the consumption in the off - season showed resilience. With copper prices hitting a new high, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. A Shanxi alumina enterprise will start maintenance, reducing the daily output by about 2000 tons. The fundamentals of alumina are still bearish, but local production cuts may provide temporary support [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,055 yuan/ton, up 1.54%. The end - of - year order rush and tight raw materials support the price. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose with increased positions, and LME zinc strengthened. The supply pressure has been continuously relieved, with the LME0 - 3 premium soaring and processing fees dropping significantly. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to decrease in December. Short - term zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [12][13]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and opened slightly higher at night, and LME lead rebounded. The supply in December is expected to decrease, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has improved marginally. Lead prices are expected to repair strongly [14][15]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the day and oscillated horizontally at night, and LME tin first declined and then rebounded. The production in November was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in December. The potential supply disruption in Congo due to the conflict and the uncertainty of the Fed's leadership have an impact on tin prices. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side is contracting, with Xinjiang maintaining a high operating rate and the southwest region's operating rate dropping due to the dry season. The demand side shows mixed performance. The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17][18]. Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The real - estate supply in November increased slightly. The overall supply - demand drive is weak, and the inventory reduction provides support. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of capital contract switching [19]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas supply is at a high level, and the demand from steel mills is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure to oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The upstream supply is stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The coking enterprises' inventory is increasing, and the demand for blast furnace raw materials is poor. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - term attention should be paid to the rhythm of contract switching [21][22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the bean meal 01 contract closed down 0.36%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed down 1.46%. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and the domestic oil mill's soybean and bean meal inventories have increased. The coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are almost depleted. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 01 contract closed up 0.75%. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and export demand remained weak, with an expected increase in inventory. Domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and economic data on precious metals [1][2][3] Market Trends - As of December 2, gold is trading at $4225.25 per ounce, having reached a six-week high of $4264 on December 1, while silver hit a record high of $58.82 per ounce [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor supporting precious metal prices, with traders estimating an 87% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The weakening U.S. dollar has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thereby increasing demand [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including the November ADP employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, are anticipated to reinforce rate cut expectations if they show continued weakness [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is viewed as a critical moment for potential policy guidance, with a dovish signal likely to boost gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - Recent price movements indicate a potential reversal, with gold showing signs of weakness after failing to break above key resistance levels [3][5] - The analysis suggests that if gold prices drop below $4200, it could confirm a market top, while a rebound from this level could lead to further testing of highs [5] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on gold around $4225-$4230 with targets set at $4200-$4185, and long positions around $4170-$4175 with targets at $4200-$4210 [6][7] - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management and position sizing to navigate potential market volatility [6][7]