2025.06. 23 本文字数：2235，阅读时长大约4分钟 上周，在以伊冲突升级持续下，黄金意外表现平平，美元指数反而录得一个月来最大周涨幅，似乎重 现"避险"属性。 世界黄金协会最近的一项调查发现，地缘政治不确定性和潜在的贸易冲突，是新兴经济体央行以远快 于发达经济体的速度转向黄金的主要原因。 美银更预测，即便抛开地缘政治风险，金价也将获得继续上涨的动力。该行分析师在最新报告中写 道， 诚然，在全球动荡时期，黄金通常被视为避险资产，但战争和地缘政治冲突通常不是金价的长 期增长动力 。 值得注意的是，黄金今年以来的强劲上涨主要得益于各国央行购入黄金以对冲美国财 政前景恶化这一趋势。美银预计，各国央行的黄金持有量目前相当于美国未偿还公共债务的18%左 右，高于10年前的13%。 但分析师普遍认为，这只是暂时现象，金价将重启涨势，美元传统"避险资产"地位仍将继续受到美国 关税政策和财政前景的拖累。 金价后续有望冲击4000美元 上周，现货黄金收报3368美元/盎司附近，周跌幅达1.8%，为三周以来首次下跌，并录得6月12日以 来最低水平。此前，以伊冲突爆发之初，现货黄金曾一度逼近3450美元的前期历史高点。C ...

Group 1 - Analysts believe the recent performance of gold is a temporary phenomenon, and gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend, while the dollar's status as a traditional "safe-haven asset" will continue to be undermined by U.S. tariff policies and fiscal outlook [1][3] - Last week, spot gold closed at approximately $3,368 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, and the lowest level since June 12 [3] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that geopolitical risk premiums for gold have rapidly dissipated since mid-June, but this may be a false signal; historically, gold prices have averaged a 3% increase during geopolitical events [3][4] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's recent survey found that geopolitical uncertainty and potential trade conflicts are primary reasons for emerging market central banks shifting to gold at a faster pace than developed economies [4] - Bank of America predicts that even without geopolitical risks, gold prices will continue to rise, driven by central bank purchases to hedge against deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects [5] - Bank of America estimates that current central bank gold holdings are about 18% of U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago, and anticipates gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, a 19% increase from current levels [5] Group 3 - The dollar index experienced a rare increase, rebounding last week with its largest weekly gain in a month, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East conflicts [6] - Despite the recent rise, market participants believe the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is under significant pressure due to ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies and fiscal deficits [6] - The complex sentiment towards the dollar is reflected in U.S. Treasury yields, which have shown little change since the onset of the conflict, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.39% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar and increased oil prices, while U.S. stock index futures have declined due to heightened risk aversion and concerns over energy supply [1][6][9]. Market Reactions - The dollar has strengthened against the euro and most major currencies in early Asian trading, while oil futures surged, reflecting the market's response to geopolitical risks [1]. - Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant declines, indicating a broader sell-off in the cryptocurrency market as investors move towards safer assets [2]. - The S&P 500 index remains only about 3% below its historical high from February, suggesting that the market's overall reaction has been relatively muted despite the ongoing conflict [4]. Oil Market Impact - Brent crude oil futures have jumped 11% to $77 per barrel, with traders preparing for further price increases amid escalating tensions in a region that accounts for one-third of global oil production [6]. - Analysts suggest that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise significantly, while a quick resolution might see prices revert to the $60 range [6]. U.S. Dollar Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has risen approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is considered limited given the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6]. - Market strategists indicate that if the dollar maintains its upward trend, it could enhance the attractiveness of other U.S. assets [7]. Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are weighing multiple factors, including inflation, growth, oil prices, and trade tariffs, as they navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape [8]. - The potential for Iran to respond aggressively, such as by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, remains a critical concern for market participants [5][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market's response to the conflict may be tempered due to the current accommodative monetary policies and the absence of liquidity bubbles [12]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to create volatility in oil and gold prices, while the core issue remains whether U.S. assets will continue to enjoy a safe-haven premium [15].

Market Overview - The Middle East situation continues to impact global markets, with A-shares declining and the bond market strengthening. The conflict in Iran has created tension, leading to a drop in A-share performance, with only 716 companies rising, marking a recent low [2][4] - On Friday, Trump's statement regarding a decision on attacking Iran within two weeks eased market nerves, resulting in improved performance for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] Bond Market - The bond market remains strong due to a loose funding environment, despite a slight liquidity withdrawal by the central bank. Weak economic data supports the bond market, making it favorable as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks [2][8] Commodity Market - Gold prices experienced a weekly decline of over 2% due to a strengthening dollar, while oil prices fluctuated significantly amid geopolitical tensions [3][37] Stock Market - As the second quarter approaches its end, attention on corporate earnings is increasing. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has decreased significantly, indicating a recalibration of market expectations [6][15] - The market is expected to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in technology sectors with improving fundamentals and those benefiting from domestic demand policies [7] Industry Performance - In the past week, the banking, communication, and electronics sectors performed well, with respective gains of +2.63%, +1.58%, and +0.95%. Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector saw a decline of -4.35% [21][25] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 6.4% for May, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7%. Real estate investment remains under pressure with a cumulative decline of -10.7% [33]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions following the US airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar in Asian trading [1] - Oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures rising by 11% to $77 per barrel, as traders brace for potential further increases amid ongoing conflict [6] - The S&P 500 index has shown resilience, only down about 3% from its historical high in February, indicating that investors expect the conflict to remain localized [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to the conflict is mixed, with some believing it could limit Iran's nuclear ambitions while others see it as a potential escalation [7] - The dollar has appreciated approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is relatively modest given its traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is a critical concern, as such an action would significantly impact oil supply and market stability [3][12] Group 3 - Market participants have reduced stock holdings in anticipation of conflict escalation, with the MSCI global index down 1.5% since mid-June [3] - The bond market has shown a complex reaction, with US Treasury yields initially falling but then reversing due to inflation concerns, resulting in minimal overall change since June 13 [6] - Analysts predict that if oil prices remain high, it could lead to increased political risks for the Trump administration, particularly as midterm elections approach [9][11]

Market Reactions to Middle East Tensions - Gold prices surged by $24 to a peak of $3398 per ounce due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - WTI crude oil opened 3.7% higher, reflecting market concerns over potential supply disruptions [2] - The S&P 500 index remains only about 3% below its historical high from February, indicating a relatively muted market response despite recent declines [2] Investor Sentiment and Market Predictions - Investors are currently anticipating that the conflict will remain localized, minimizing broader economic impacts [2] - Market analysts suggest that significant volatility could arise if Iran responds aggressively, such as by blocking the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fund managers have reduced stock holdings, indicating a cautious approach to potential market downturns [3] Oil Price Outlook - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that a quick resolution could bring oil prices back to $60 per barrel, while ongoing tensions may keep prices elevated [3] - A fundamental disruption in global oil supply could lead to significant price increases [3] Currency and Asset Strategies - There is a prevailing sentiment to short the US dollar, with some strategists suggesting that a sustained dollar rally could enhance the attractiveness of US assets [4] - High oil prices could pose a political challenge for the Trump administration, especially ahead of midterm elections [5] Stock Market Resilience - Barclays' Emmanuel Cau notes that historical data suggests oil shocks typically have a short-lived impact on stock markets, often presenting mid-term buying opportunities [5] - Analysts from Societe Generale believe that the current monetary policy environment will limit stock market declines compared to previous oil shocks [6] Safe-Haven Assets - Capital is expected to flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as Japanese government bonds, yen, Swiss franc, and gold [6] - Historical trends indicate that when investors sell the dollar, they often turn to US Treasury bonds, anticipating a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [6] Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US's actions in the Middle East, is seen as a critical factor influencing market volatility and investor behavior [7] - Analysts suggest that the recent US strikes may have prompted hedge funds to exit bearish positions on the dollar, potentially leading to a stronger dollar in the near term [7]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions - The announcement of airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by President Trump has increased uncertainty in capital markets, with investors awaiting potential market movements [1] - Oil prices have risen approximately 10% over the past week, with Brent crude futures up 18% since June 10, reaching a high of $79.04 per barrel [3] - The rental prices for large oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz have more than doubled due to concerns over navigation risks, with rates for supertankers rising from under $20,000 to nearly $48,000 per day [3] Group 2: Economic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with Oxford University estimating prices could rise to around $130 per barrel under severe conditions [3] - The U.S. is expected to experience increased inflation pressure, with estimates suggesting that every $10 increase in oil prices could raise inflation by 0.3%-0.4% [4] Group 3: Shifts in Energy Imports and Market Dynamics - Europe has increased its imports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., reducing reliance on the Middle East, while diesel and aviation fuel premiums in Europe have surged to 15-month highs [4] - The U.S. is less affected by these tensions as an energy net exporter, but faces economic slowdown and rising inflation pressures [4] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - Despite predictions of gold prices potentially rising to $4,000 per ounce, gold prices have actually decreased by 2% since the onset of the conflict [4] - There has been a significant outflow from U.S. stock funds, with a net outflow of $18.43 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow in three months [5] - Central banks are shifting their focus from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, with gold currently making up only 3.5% of their reserves [5]

当地时间6月22日，美国总统特朗普宣称美军"成功打击"并"彻底清除"伊朗三处核设施，中东紧张局势 再次升级。作为应对手段之一，伊朗议会认为应关闭承接全球约三分之一海运原油贸易的霍尔木兹海 峡，不过，此举尚待伊朗最高国家安全委员会批准。分析认为，全球大宗商品市场和金融市场都将受到 较大冲击。 数据显示，自一周前以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来，国际原油价格已经上涨了约10%，6月的涨幅超过 20%。 自1988年两伊战争结束后，霍尔木兹海峡一直保持畅通状态。如今，全球约三分之一海运原油贸易通过 霍尔木兹海峡进行。 中信证券同样认为，避险情绪往往在开战前夕就开始催化黄金价格，开战后价格走势出现两种模式。第 一，对于开战前存在市场预期的冲突，金价往往在开战首日冲高回落。第二，对于开战前缺乏市场预期 的冲突，金价在开战后十天左右达到短期高点，待战局明朗后阶段性回落。拉长时间来看，随着美国转 向战略收缩、国际局势不稳定性上升，地缘因素对黄金存在长期持续催化。 股市方面，中东多个国家股市在周日如期开盘。其中，沙特证券交易所主要股票指数TASI指数冲高回 落。截至记者发稿，该指数下跌0.29%。该指数今年整体表现欠佳，年初至今跌幅 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - Iran's parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, which is a critical oil shipping route, accounting for approximately one-third of global maritime crude oil trade [1] - Following the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have increased by about 10% since the Israeli attack on Iran, with June's increase exceeding 20% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that further political instability in Iran could lead to sustained high oil prices [1] Group 2: Commodity and Financial Market Reactions - The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East directly impacts oil supply, with recovery often only occurring after significant de-escalation [2] - Gold and the US dollar are gaining attention as safe-haven assets, with gold prices experiencing a decline of approximately 1.91% last week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.64% [2] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to increase uncertainty globally, potentially leading to a higher allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Middle Eastern stock markets, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, have shown varied responses, with the TASI index down by 0.29% and the TA35 index up by 4.71% [3][4] - US stock markets typically experience emotional disturbances only in the initial weeks of conflict, with a tendency to recover quickly if the US is not directly involved [4] - The overall impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on Chinese assets is limited, primarily causing emotional disturbances on the first day of conflict, which tend to recover quickly [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]