Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

据环球网援引日本《朝日新闻》消息，日本和美国的第五轮关税谈判未取得进展，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮表示双方尚未找到共识 。美日谈判陷入僵局， 而日本首相石破茂态度突变，这背后有着诸多复杂因素。 石破茂（资料图） 石破茂态度转变有着多方面原因。从经济利益考量，日本汽车产业是其经济支柱之一，若按照美国要求限制汽车出口，日本经济将遭受重创。农业方面，大 量农业就业岗位与当前农产品关税政策相关，降低关税会引发国内农业领域动荡。在外交层面，日本也在尝试多元化发展。日本加强与东盟国家的合作，积 极推动区域经济合作；在处理与中国关系上，也有积极信号释放，中国是日本重要的贸易伙伴，2023 年中日贸易额达 3500 亿美元，日本期望通过改善对华 关系，在经济合作中获取更多利益，减少对美国市场的过度依赖。此外，日本持有 1.1 万亿美元美债，这成为日本在谈判中的重要筹码，日本暗示必要时可 能抛售美债作为对美国关税政策的反制手段。 美日谈判若持续破裂，双方可能爆发贸易战。美国可能对日本汽车加征 25% 关税，日本也计划对 34 亿美元美国农产品实施反制。这不仅会冲击美日双边贸 易，还将影响全球供应链，特别是汽车和半导体产业。若达成协 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Core Viewpoint - ASML is facing significant challenges due to geopolitical tensions and trade policies, which could impact its market position and the global semiconductor supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Geopolitical Challenges - The CEO of ASML, Christophe Fouquet, has expressed concerns about the uncertainty brought by U.S. trade policies, including tariffs that could increase the cost of ASML's essential lithography machines [1][2]. - The Dutch government has been involved in discussions regarding the export restrictions on ASML's equipment to China, which complicates trade negotiations [1][4]. - ASML's unique position as the sole manufacturer of complex lithography machines makes it a target in the ongoing tech trade war between the U.S. and China [1][4]. Group 2: Business Performance and Projections - ASML reported a record revenue of €28.3 billion (approximately $32.3 billion) last year and anticipates sales could reach between €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030 [6]. - Despite the growth in demand for AI chips, concerns remain about the sustainability of this demand and the high costs associated with ASML's machines, which are priced at around $400 million each [6][8]. - The company's stock has seen a decline of about 25% over the past year, reflecting market uncertainties [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Innovation - ASML's advanced lithography machines utilize extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology, which is critical for manufacturing microchips, and require components from hundreds of international suppliers [5][8]. - The company is actively lobbying for more support from the EU and Dutch government to mitigate the impacts of U.S.-China trade tensions on the semiconductor industry [4][8]. - There are concerns that U.S. export bans could inadvertently strengthen China's domestic semiconductor capabilities, as Chinese companies are investing heavily in developing their own lithography technology [9][11].

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/6/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 2042.100 | -19.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1351.9 | | +5.70↑ | | 期货盘面 | 690.20 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -31.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 496.50 | | -48.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | -419.29 | +23.50↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 45494 | 1367↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1622.81 369.99↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 2,185.08 | | 466.94↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 2240.35 167.64↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | ...

本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，具体资料赘述在文中和文末！ 面对美方的狮子大开口，中方这次给出了一套漂亮的组合拳，在短短24小时内，特朗普接连收到三大噩耗。 美方双线施压 此次出访，主要任务是访问英国，与美方磋商经贸议题，只是中方顺带需要完成一项议程，可美方居然玩起了老把戏，不仅要求中方大幅扩大稀土出口， 还公然干涉中英关系，尽显霸道本色。 特朗普政府的谈判策略始终笼罩在"贸易战"的阴影，就在此次伦敦会谈前一个月，美国贸易代表办公室仍坚称"对华关税是必要杠杆"，延续着2018年以来 的单边主义路径。 这种"边打边谈"的套路已多次暴露其真实意图：以谈判为筹码，逼迫中方在单方面让步中妥协，白宫国际经济委员会主席哈西特对媒体的表态揭示了美方 核心诉求：稀土的供应量和审批流程必须"开倒车"，回归四月初的宽松状态。 这种要求无异于让中国自行拆除战略资源管控体系，稀土作为高科技产业和国防工业的"维生素"，全球80%以上的加工产能在中国手中。 应英国政府的邀请，中方高层将于6月8日至13日访问英国，在此期间，会与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 并且特朗普还试图对英国进行隔空干预，他通过外交渠道向新任首相斯塔 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续反弹，布伦特08合约涨0.72%。周一中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国开启，若 会议延续上周两国元首通话的乐观信号将弱化贸易战对经济及油品需求的负面影响，市场对这一情 景提前定价。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后，宏观面中美贸易战相关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求 改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存对原油构成支撑，5月以来原油现货基差持续走强。二季度以来原油 库存累增2.1%、成品油库存累增0.8%，总体石油累库1.6%基本延续一季度累库速度。原油暂以反弹 空间有限定调，关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扭转及周末第六轮美伊核会谈进展。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上 突破刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关税政策将继续主导市场， 俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张,金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走高，伦铜库存流出速度加快，物流持续向美转移，且银价补涨。国内消 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has risen above 24,000 points, closing at 24,181 points with a gain of 388 points on June 9, 2025, driven by optimistic market sentiment following U.S.-China trade talks [5] - The market anticipates a new round of financial policies from mainland China, including potential interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, to stabilize the market [1][2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs temporarily, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports reduced from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods reduced from 125% to 10% for 90 days [1] Economic Indicators - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in May, better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 3.3%, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline [7] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports increased by 6% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 4.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately 471.89 billion USD [7][8] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached a record high of 1.932 million units in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [8] Corporate Developments - JD.com has initiated a hotel and travel business, reportedly offering three times the salary to attract talent from competitors [9] - BYD is integrating its various business scenarios with Alibaba Cloud's AI capabilities, enhancing its smart cockpit and marketing services [9] - A-share lithium battery supplier, Yiwei Lithium Energy, plans to list H-shares in Hong Kong to strengthen its capital base and international competitiveness [9] Sector Focus - The "Two New" policy in mainland China is expected to expand to include durable goods such as electrical appliances and bathroom fixtures, aimed at boosting economic growth [8] - The pharmaceutical sector is seeing renewed interest due to ongoing COVID-19 developments and collaborations between Chinese and U.S. pharmaceutical companies [6] - AI concept stocks are gaining traction with advancements in large model upgrades, indicating a growing focus on technology-driven investments [6]

Group 1 - Boeing has sent a 737 Max plane to China for the first time since tariff tensions escalated, marking a significant step ahead of further trade talks between the US and China [1][4] - The plane's journey took approximately 59 hours, starting from Seattle and making stops in Hawaii and Guam before arriving in Zhoushan [2] - Previously, Boeing had to send back three planes to the US in April due to trade tensions, with CEO Kelly Ortberg noting that many customers in China were unwilling to take delivery [3] Group 2 - Tariff tensions have eased, with the US reducing its levy on Chinese products to 30% and China lowering its tariffs to 10%, creating a more favorable environment for Boeing [4] - Boeing's commercial aircraft order book is significantly impacted by China, which accounts for about 10% of its orders [4] - Airbus predicts that China will become the largest market for aviation services by 2043, accounting for 20% of all aircraft deliveries, and has seen a positive market response following reports of potential orders from China [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly converging demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short trades at high prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum and alumina both increased. LME aluminum注销仓单 and LME aluminum inventory decreased [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased. The Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory in the previous period decreased [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum decreased, while the alumina spot price remained unchanged. The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumaoh and LME decreased, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production decreased by 15.22 tons to 732.30 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.17% to 80.93%. The demand for alumina decreased by 30.02 tons to 693.70 tons, and the supply - demand balance decreased by 13.48 tons to - 9.93 tons [2] - The export and import quantities of alumina decreased, the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import and export quantities of primary aluminum increased, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.00 tons to 4,520.20 tons, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.05% to 97.65% [2] - The production of aluminum products decreased by 21.77 tons to 576.40 tons, and the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 2.70 tons to 54.70 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy decreased by 12.70 tons to 152.80 tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.16 tons to 1.66 tons [2] - The automobile production decreased by 44.06 million to 260.40 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.09 to 93.86 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.03% to 10.81%, the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.40%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the option call - put ratio increased [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts and bank regulations. The Sino - EU negotiation on the price commitment of electric vehicles was in the final stage [2] - US employment growth slowed down in May, and the US import volume in April decreased by 16.3% month - on - month. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]