Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - French Agricultural Credit Bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, targeting a terminal rate of 4.00% due to sticky inflation limiting aggressive easing policies [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that U.S. companies may be more susceptible to tariffs than European firms, with the latest Producer Price Index showing a 0.9% increase, suggesting tariffs are impacting businesses [3] - Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote Bank highlights that the recent firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, affecting market confidence in the U.S. [2] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - Deutsche Bank states that the recovery potential for the U.S. dollar is limited due to challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with the dollar's situation expected to remain "difficult and volatile" [2] - Japanese investors view the recent sell-off of French government bonds due to political risks as a buying opportunity, as the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds has reached its highest level since April [3] Group 3: Thailand's Economic Forecast - Maybank economists predict that the Bank of Thailand may cut interest rates twice before the end of 2026 due to weak economic growth and inflation prospects, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.8% and 1.5% in Q3 and Q4 respectively [4]

Group 1 - The announcement of the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the future independence of the Federal Reserve among investors [1][5] - Following the announcement, there was a mixed reaction in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising while short-term yields mostly fell [1][3] - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond decreased by 3.2 basis points to 3.698%, while the 10-year yield increased by 0.4 basis points to 4.279% [1] Group 2 - Economists warn that further political interference in the Federal Reserve could pose significant risks [7] - Elizabeth Warren, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, criticized the dismissal as an illegal attempt by the president to find a scapegoat for rising costs, calling it a violation of the Federal Reserve Act [6] - The potential for further dismissals of Federal Reserve officials could increase inflation risks, leading investors to speculate that the Fed may become less focused on inflation [5]

Group 1 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in gold prices [1][4][6] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [4][5] - Market analysts predict that Trump's actions could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [5][6] Group 2 - Cook has stated that she will not resign and plans to take necessary actions to prevent Trump's "illegal actions," asserting that he lacks the authority to dismiss her [2][8] - The potential legal battle over Cook's dismissal could test the Supreme Court's stance on the independence of the Federal Reserve, as past rulings have protected such officials from arbitrary dismissal [7][9] - Analysts express that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment, which has historically been based on the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]

Group 1 - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds faced a sell-off due to concerns over President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, which may undermine confidence in the central bank [1] - The sell-off widened the gap between short-term and long-term bond yields to the largest level in nearly three years, with investors betting on a short-term decline in interest rates but higher rates in the future due to inflation pressures [1] - The two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.7%, while the 30-year yield rose by 0.06 percentage points, creating a gap of over 1.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury yield later retreated to 4.91%, indicating market volatility in response to political pressures [2] - Analysts expressed concerns that undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, with significant implications for the economy [2] - Recent actions by Trump, including criticism of Fed Chair Powell and the dismissal of senior officials, have increased market unease regarding the Fed's independence and the reliability of economic data [2] Group 3 - Analysts view the White House's actions as part of a strategy to weaken the Federal Reserve's statutory independence, which could lead to a weaker currency and steeper government bond yield curves [3] - The dollar fell by 0.3% against a basket of currencies, with a year-to-date depreciation of over 9%, reflecting investor concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [3] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve is seen as a prominent example of a "fiscal dominance" era, where central bank policies are increasingly influenced by government needs to maintain low borrowing costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud as the reason for her removal [1][2]. - Cook responded by stating that Trump lacks the legal authority to dismiss her and intends to continue her duties [2][3]. - This event marks a potential first in the 111-year history of the Federal Reserve, where a sitting president attempts to remove a Federal Reserve governor [1][3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions represent a systematic intervention in the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and decision-making processes [2][8]. - If Cook is successfully dismissed, Trump would gain a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy towards more accommodative stances [8][9]. - Concerns are raised that the Federal Reserve's ability to combat inflation may be weakened due to increased political influence over its decisions [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Trump's announcement, there was a limited decline in the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and S&P 500 futures, indicating market sensitivity to the news [4]. - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve's agenda becomes more influenced by Trump's policies, it could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and commodity prices [4][5]. - The potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy objectives may include considerations of political cycles, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections, which could further complicate monetary policy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, amidst conflicting economic signals and political pressures [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Fed's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target and signs of a weakening labor market, creating a complex environment for decision-making [5][6]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted the conflicting signals and the difficulty of timing policy changes during transitional periods [6]. - Powell's remarks suggested that tariffs are impacting prices, but the long-term effects on inflation remain uncertain [7]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for rate cuts and threatening to dismiss officials over controversies [6][7]. - The atmosphere at the symposium was notably tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny of the Fed's actions [6]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding the Fed's approach to achieving inflation and employment targets, marking a shift from previous strategies [8]. - This new strategy emphasizes the importance of an independent Federal Reserve in addressing economic challenges effectively [9][10]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Following Powell's speech, the euro strengthened against the dollar, raising concerns about potential downward risks to inflation in the Eurozone [11]. - The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with global markets means that a slowdown in U.S. growth could have significant implications for other economies [11].

新华社北京8月26日电 美国总统特朗普25日说，他已解除美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克的职 务。美国消费者新闻与商业频道评论，美国总统直接罢免美联储理事史无前例，标志着特朗普因美联储 拒绝下调利率而对该机构"独立性"发起的攻击进一步升级。 美国金融服务机构雷蒙德—詹姆斯公司董事总经理爱德华·米尔斯说，特朗普解雇库克的举动对美 联储独立性而言"史无前例"，表明白宫正不断升级其对货币政策决策的压力。 米尔斯说："市场可能将此视为对美联储独立性的攻击，从而加剧未来政策走向的不确定性。" 受特朗普解雇库克的消息影响，现货黄金价格26日创两周来新高，美元指数一度回落。 她说："我不会辞职，将继续履行协助美国经济发展的职能，正如我自2022年以来所做的那样。" 库克是美联储首名非洲裔女性理事，由拜登提名上任。美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特20日 公开指认库克曾同时将两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更优惠贷款利率，普尔特同时向司法部提交 一份刑事指控。特朗普当天晚些时候在社交媒体上转发相关报道并称"库克必须辞职"。21日，美司法部 表示将对库克展开调查。（卜晓明） 泽沃斯说，美联储主席鲍威尔在前总统约瑟夫·拜登任期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dismissal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board by former President Trump, highlighting the legal and political implications of this action, as well as the potential motivations behind it [1][4][7]. Group 1: Dismissal Details - Trump claims authority under the U.S. Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act to remove Cook from her position [1]. - Cook, the first African American woman on the Federal Reserve Board, intends to continue her duties in stabilizing the U.S. economy despite the dismissal [4]. - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that a Federal Reserve Board member can only be dismissed for "cause," which has historically not been applied to any sitting member [6]. Group 2: Political Context - Cook's questioning of Trump's tariff policies, which she believes could harm U.S. productivity, is seen as a key reason for her dismissal [7]. - The potential reshaping of the Federal Reserve by Trump is discussed, with implications for monetary policy and the independence of the institution [11]. - The dismissal occurs amid ongoing debates between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with Cook voting to maintain the current rate, contrary to the administration's preferences [11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with Cook's term expected to last until January 31, 2038 [8]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve through such dismissals is questioned, as the current chair, Powell, was also nominated by Trump [10]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with legal procedures required for a presidential dismissal, indicating that Trump's actions may serve as a warning to other board members [12].

Group 1 - President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Market reactions have been muted, with short-term Treasury yields slightly declining, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.936% due to expectations of forced monetary easing leading to inflation [1] - Investors are cautious about shorting the dollar or U.S. assets, as significant investments from trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea could support the dollar and U.S. stock markets [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions have undermined confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment and diminished the dollar's unique advantages, which have historically allowed the U.S. to finance its $36 trillion national debt [2] - There has been a steady outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets, with global equity funds (excluding the U.S.) receiving substantial inflows since May, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] - The dollar index has declined by 9% this year, and while U.S. stock markets have reached record highs, their gains have lagged behind other markets driven by technology and AI [2]

Group 1 - European stocks experienced a significant decline, with the French CAC 40 index dropping over 2% following the announcement of a confidence vote by the French Prime Minister on September 8, leading to a 9 basis points increase in the yield of French 10-year government bonds [1][5] - The U.S. long-term Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, resulting in a steepening yield curve, as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve intensified due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1][2][3] - Global market tensions are rising, with Wall Street's initial optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts fading, as traders prepare for possibly unfavorable inflation data later in the week [4] Group 2 - The political crisis in France is impacting market sentiment, with the announcement of a confidence vote causing a drop in bond prices to their lowest since March [5] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the fastest annual growth in five months, which could further influence market dynamics [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1%, while the euro rose by 0.2% to 1.1638 USD, indicating fluctuations in currency markets amid the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4]