美股三大指数集体高开。 截至发稿，道指涨0.08%，纳指涨0.22%，标普500指数涨0.13%。 诺和诺德跌超2%，公司今天宣布CEO将辞职。 英伟达最新持仓曝光，相关概念股集体上扬，Applied Digital涨近12%，CoreWeave涨近8%，NEBIUS涨 超3%。 泽连斯基呼吁在俄罗斯拒绝全面停火情况下对其实施制裁。 美国总统特朗普15日在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，美国与伊朗就伊朗核问题全面协议条款达成"某种"共识， 美伊"接近达成"协议。前一天，伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的一名顾问接受美国媒体采访时说，伊朗 愿意放弃高丰度浓缩铀储备以换取美国解除对伊制裁。 谷歌股价上涨3%，消息上，文艺复兴科技Q1建仓ServiceNow、谷歌，大幅减持苹果。 热门中概股涨跌不一，禾赛涨超9%，哔哩哔哩美股涨超7%，高盛预计一季度游戏业务收入同比增长 71%。 现货黄金大跌，哈莫尼黄金、金田跌超3%。 特朗普强调，伊朗不能拥有核武器。 按照美联社说法，特朗普暗示，美伊围绕核协议条款"愈发一致"，不过没有作具体说明。他本周访问中 东地区期间重申，如果美伊谈判不成功，仍存在针对伊朗核设施发动军事行动的可能性。特朗普1 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.08%, Nasdaq up 0.22%, and S&P 500 up 0.13% [1] Company News - Novo Nordisk's stock fell over 2% following the announcement of the CEO's resignation [2] - Nvidia's latest holdings revealed a surge in related concept stocks, with Applied Digital rising nearly 12%, CoreWeave up nearly 8%, and NEBIUS increasing over 3% [2] - Google's stock rose by 3%, with Renaissance Technologies building positions in ServiceNow and Google while significantly reducing its holdings in Apple [3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Hesai up over 9% and Bilibili's U.S. shares rising over 7% [3] - Goldman Sachs projected a 71% year-on-year growth in the gaming business revenue for the first quarter [3] Commodity Market - Spot gold experienced a significant drop, with Harmony Gold and Jintian both falling over 3% [4] Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions against Russia in the absence of a comprehensive ceasefire [5] - Former U.S. President Trump indicated a "certain" consensus on the Iran nuclear deal terms, suggesting that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement [5] - Trump emphasized that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons and hinted at potential military action if negotiations fail [6] - Following positive signals from Trump regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, international markets anticipated a restoration of oil supply from the Middle East, leading to a decline in U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil futures, both dropping over 2% [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand is stable month - on - month, supply has rebounded, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports near - term spot prices and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Oil prices are under pressure due to the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal. The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there is room for the asphalt/oil price spread to widen. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3400 - 3550 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 16, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 1.27%, 0.49%, and 0.35% respectively compared to the previous day, while SC2506 decreased by 1.51%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4.62% to 7.5 million lots, and trading volume decreased by 8.92% to 11.9 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,520 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The spreads of BU06 - 07 and BU07 - 08 increased by 122.73% and 25.00% respectively. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.50%, 30.36%, and 26.56% respectively [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. Shandong gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 0.66% and 0.79% respectively. The price of Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.3. The central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased by 0.03% [2]. - **Spreads and Profits**: Asphalt refinery profits decreased by 53.26% to - 79.00, refined oil comprehensive profits decreased by 12.14% to 365.91, BU - SC cracking spread increased by 19.83% to - 267.43, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 5.58% to 941.70, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 7.23% to 737.01 [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 16, the average domestic asphalt price was 3,673 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous day. Crude oil prices continued to fall, and market sentiment was cautious. In the North, although the prices of major refineries increased, actual demand was insufficient, and traders' selling prices decreased to stimulate sales. In the South, major refineries mainly shipped by sea, and asphalt prices lacked upward momentum [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,600 - 3,760 yuan/ton. Refinery inventories were low, but due to falling crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, some refineries and traders slightly reduced prices. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 yuan/ton. Major refineries planned to reduce production, which supported prices. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and some refineries reduced prices to stimulate sales. Future demand is expected to gradually recover, but the rainy season and unstable crude oil prices will keep asphalt prices weakly stable [5][6]. 3. Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the open interest of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16].

在4月下旬的第三轮会谈中，阿拉格齐向威特科夫提交了一份更新的伊朗核协议想法文件。这一次，威 特科夫拿走了文件。 一位美国官员和另外两位直接知情的消息人士透露，特朗普政府在上周日的第四轮谈判中就已向伊朗提 交了一份核协议提案。 重这是自4月初核谈判开始以来，白宫特使威特科夫首次向伊朗方面提交了一份书面提案。 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐将提案带回德黑兰，与最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊、马苏德·佩泽什基安总统及其他 高级官员进行磋商。 美国总统特朗普周二在沙特表示，他向伊朗方面递出了"橄榄枝"，但强调"这不是一份会永远有效的报 价。现在是他们做出选择的时候了。" 在第一轮会谈中，阿拉格齐向威特科夫提交了一份载有多项伊朗提案的书面文件。一位了解那次会晤的 消息人士称，威特科夫告诉阿拉格齐，现在还为时过早，他希望先建立融洽关系。 根据外媒获取的消息以及经另一位知情人士证实的一份会议记录，威特科夫上周三向联合国安理会作了 简报，将美国提案描述为"优雅"且"非常大"，但强调谈判需要取得更多进展。 消息人士称，威特科夫上周日在阿曼将提案交给了阿拉格齐。美国国务院官员拒绝置评。 目前，威特科夫对第四轮美伊会谈结果感到鼓舞，该轮会谈在特朗普 ...

油价再度回撤，关注伊核协议进展 市场分析 燃料油日报 | 2025-05-16 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等； 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.16%，报2991元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报3596 元/吨。 昨日基于美国与伊朗方的表态，市场对伊核协议达成、美国解除制裁的预期增加，从而带动油价回撤。但目前来 看，协议还未有定数，市场或反复波动。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，近期中美关税的下调利好贸易与航运需求，且在90天暂停期内存在额外的补库需求， 有望带动船用燃料油消费改善。其中，低硫燃料油下游需求更集中在船燃端，反应或更为敏感。此外，5月份地中 海ECA生效后，虽然低硫燃料油需求被部分替代，但炼厂也通过产品调整减少低硫燃料油供应，欧洲市场表现实 际强于此前预期，套利船货量的收紧也对亚洲市场形成支撑。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东等地发电厂 需求进入季节性增长阶段。但需要注意，如果美国解除对伊朗制裁，伊朗高硫燃料油出口有望回升，是潜在的利 空因素。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2507-2509价差机会（正套），前期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, which could significantly impact oil supply and prices [2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - On May 15, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping over 4% at one point, attributed mainly to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, indicated Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement with the U.S. under specific conditions, which could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [2][3]. Oil Production and Market Predictions - Citigroup reported a high likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, potentially increasing Iran's oil production to over 4 million barrels per day and releasing oil reserves [3]. - Following this, Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast for Brent crude by $5 to $60 per barrel, while maintaining average forecasts for the second and third quarters at $62 and $63, respectively [3][4]. Refinery Support and Market Dynamics - Refinery margins have been a significant factor supporting oil prices, with high residual fuel oil crack spreads bolstering global refining profitability [5]. - Citigroup noted that increased refinery profitability could stimulate capacity utilization and hedging activities, providing temporary support for Brent prices [5]. OPEC+ Production Decisions - The unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June contributed to the decline in international oil prices, with the third-quarter production forecast raised to a surplus of nearly 600,000 barrels per day [6]. U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump issued a "final warning" to Iran, emphasizing that the U.S. would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and urging Iran to choose between chaos and peace [7][9]. - Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement with Iran, contingent on a change in Iran's current policies [9]. Iranian Response - Iranian officials, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Zarif, rejected U.S. accusations of being a destabilizing force in the Middle East, asserting that U.S. sanctions and pressures have hindered Iran's development [10].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 | | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/05/08 | 59.91 | 62.84 | 63.00 | -0.29 | 0.39 | -2.93 | 0.67 | 208.54 | 24.75 | 204.00 | 22.84 | | 2025/05/09 | 61.02 | 63.91 | 63.83 | - | 0.48 | -2.89 | 0.72 | 210.84 | 24.64 | 206.64 | 22.88 | | 2025/05/12 ...

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据卡塔尔半岛电视台报道，针对美国总统特朗普在为期3天的中东之行中抨 击伊朗的有关言论，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬当地时间14日回应称，伊朗不会"向任何霸凌者低头"。 当地时间13日，特朗普在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得出席活动时再次表示，有意与伊朗就限制其核计划"达 成协议"，但同时威胁称"如果伊朗领导层拒绝……我们将只能极限施压，让伊朗的石油出口变成零"。 伊朗与美国4月12日在马斯喀特举行首轮间接会谈，这是自2018年5月美国单方面退出伊核协议以来双方 首次正式开启谈判。此后，双方分别于4月19日和26日举行了两轮间接会谈。佩泽希齐扬5月11日表示， 伊朗对其与美国的谈判是认真的，但不接受销毁伊朗全部核设施。他表示，伊朗将继续全力开展和平核 活动。 半岛电视台称，当地时间14日早些时候，特朗普在利雅得举行的海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（海合 会）-美国峰会上说，虽然他希望与伊朗达成协议，但伊朗必须"停止支持恐怖主义，停止代理人战争， 并永久、可核查地停止寻求核武器"。此外，特朗普当日在卡塔尔首都多哈参加国宴时，再次公开表态 称希望和平解决伊朗核计划，并暗示"球在伊朗一方"。 针对特朗普有关言论，半 ...

伊核协议重大信号：伊朗愿销毁武用铀 换美国解除制裁 金十数据5月15日讯，据NBC新闻报道，伊朗最高领袖高级顾问Ali Shamkhani表示， 伊朗准备在特定条 件下与特朗普签署核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。Ali Shamkhani表示， 伊朗将承诺永远不制造核武 器，销毁可用于武器化的高浓缩铀库存，同意仅将铀浓缩至民用所需的较低水平，并允许国际核查人员 监督这一过程，以换取立即解除对伊朗的所有经济制裁。当被问及如果这些条件得到满足，伊朗是否愿 意立即签署协议时，Shamkhani说："是的。"他的言论似乎是迄今为止伊朗最高领袖核心圈子就伊朗达 成协议的期望和意愿作出的最明确公开表态。伊朗最高领袖对所有国家安全事务拥有最终决定权。 ...

伊朗称美边谈判边追加制裁自相矛盾 智通财经5月14日电，伊朗新闻电视台5月13日报道称，伊朗与美国有关核问题的谈判正在进行，但近日 美国又对伊朗施加新的制裁，伊朗谴责美方做法是不公正的。伊朗负责政治事务的副外长拉万齐批评称 美国的举动是自相矛盾的。拉万齐指出，美国官员的威胁性和非威胁性言论都无法让人信任，反而使人 们对美国的立场产生怀疑和猜疑。伊朗与美国4月12日举行了首轮间接会谈，这是自2018年5月美国单方 面退出伊核协议以来双方首次正式开启谈判。此后，双方分别于4月19日、4月26日、5月11日举行间接 谈判。 (CCTV国际时讯) ...