美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 按照Timiraos的说法，美联储内部的分化可以清晰地划分为三个主要阵营：中间的谨慎派、急于降息的 少数派，以及更保守的等待派。 中间派的代表包括旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly），她在爱达荷州的一次会议上表示： "通胀前景一直过于不稳定，无法证明先发制人地降息以应对经济疲软是合理的。" 但她同时指出，由于利率仍处于紧缩水平，"你不能永 ...

三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 文章指出，虽然沃勒和鲍曼可能的反对票将成为五年来首次有FOMC会议出现"唱反调"的情况，并带来 新的头条新闻，但这实际上凸显了大多数美联储官员对过快行动的普遍谨慎态度，而非对其构成挑战。 保守派则采取了更加鹰派的立场，如亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）担心，关税 公告虽已出，但实际征收率低，价格压力可能在夏末才显现。 ...

Core Insights - Visa's CEO reported that consumer spending in the U.S. for the second quarter remains strong, indicating resilience in the economy despite external pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on consumer spending has been minimal, suggesting that economic fundamentals are holding steady [1] Group 1 - The second quarter spending growth in the U.S. is robust, reflecting positive consumer sentiment and economic activity [1] - Tariffs have not significantly affected spending patterns, indicating that consumers are continuing to engage in spending despite potential trade-related concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tapestry, Inc. stock has declined as analysts reassess its valuation despite the ongoing strength of the Coach brand, leading to a downgrade from Buy to Hold by Bank of America Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson, while raising the price forecast from $95 to $115 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Tapestry has traded at an average P/E of 13x over the past decade, currently sitting at the upper end of the range, which has influenced the downgrade to a Neutral stance [2]. - Hutchinson forecasts a solid fourth quarter with EPS of 98 cents, matching management's guidance, alongside expected sales growth of 5.4% and an operating margin of 16.4% [3]. - Fiscal year 2026 guidance will be closely monitored, with expectations for mid-single-digit sales growth and stable margins, balancing tariff-related pressures with SG&A efficiency [3]. Group 2: Brand Performance and Market Dynamics - The Coach brand continues to perform well due to effective marketing and premium product appeal, although management is not expected to forecast double-digit growth for the brand this year [4]. - There is potential for upside in fiscal year 2026 estimates, but limited long-term margin expansion is anticipated beyond Coach's current operating margin of 33.6% [4]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Profitability - Management is expected to maintain profitability over time despite tariff pressures, with a projected 60 basis points decline in gross margin for fiscal year 2026 due to tariffs, with full recovery anticipated by fiscal year 2027 [5].

欧盟输美商品将面临更高的15%关税税率，而英国此前已同意的征税税率为10%。 "理论上，英国是受益的，"Investec的首席经济学家Philip Shaw说，"欧盟新的15%关税意味着英国对美 国的出口变得相对便宜，这可能会促进英国与美国的贸易，因为美国公司会从英国而非欧盟购买商 品。" Lubbock Fine LLP的合伙人兼德国业务主管Alex Altmann在美欧协议宣布后不久发布的一份报告中也暗 示，由于关税税率较低，英国商品对美国消费者来说也会更便宜，这意味着他们可能更青睐英国产品， 而非欧盟制造的产品。 在欧洲各国的世界领导人和经济学家们消化美欧贸易协议的消息之际，一些专家认为，尽管这对欧盟来 说可能是个坏消息，但该协议可能为英国带来意外的提振。 他补充道，"英国较低的美国关税确实为欧盟公司将其部分生产基地转移到英国或扩大其现有的英国设 施提供了主要激励。" Altmann解释说，利润率较低的欧盟制造商尤其可能觉得搬到英国的想法很有吸引力，以避免这些利润 受到进一步挤压，他指出，由于英国脱欧，英国拥有闲置的制造能力。他补充道，"英国可能是这份协 议的一个巨大的间接赢家，" Dentons的国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, while discussions around potential rate cuts in the fall are intensifying due to pressures from the Trump administration and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 30, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates as more data is awaited regarding the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1]. - There is growing speculation about a possible rate cut in September, as indicated by futures markets, with observers closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the monthly employment report [1][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Some Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are likely to voice dissent regarding the current interest rate levels, citing rising employment risks [2]. - If both officials oppose the decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against the majority, with Waller being considered a potential successor to Powell [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent inflation reports show that while some goods have seen price increases due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that price pressures are not yet widespread [3]. - Economists are puzzled by the limited impact of tariffs on prices, attributing it to factors such as preemptive inventory increases and cost-sharing in supply chains [3]. Group 4: Powell's Communication Strategy - During the press conference, Powell is expected to address concerns about tariffs and inflation, likely emphasizing the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability while acknowledging recent positive data [4]. - Powell has faced significant pressure from the Trump administration, which may influence his responses, although he is anticipated to focus on economic issues rather than political pressures [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming week is critical for the market, with key events including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, earnings reports from major tech companies like Amazon and Apple, and important economic indicators such as GDP and non-farm payroll data [1][3] - Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel describes this week as a "truth moment" for the market, emphasizing the significance of the data flow in assessing investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and stock market [3] - The S&P 500 companies are generally exceeding expectations, with profits rising by 4.5% year-over-year, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [3][6] Group 2 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with expectations for a significant rebound in Q2 GDP following a contraction due to a surge in imports earlier in the year [7] - Analysts predict that consumer spending adjusted for inflation in June will show little to no growth, and hiring is expected to continue slowing down, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate [7][11] - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is anticipated to accelerate due to the impact of tariffs [7][11]

昨天延续空头，跌幅50美金后。 美盘，再次止跌反弹3340调整。 大空未见强势信号，继续看空延续。 黄金本周冲高破3400后，再次上演过山车，跳水迎来3天连跌，昨天再度跳水50美金，大空之下，下周 再探3300的关口。 昨天我们3337附近，再次做多收获。 今天的走势 昨天主要因素： 一方面，欧央行按兵不动，日央行也来搞事情了，释放信号要加息了。美欧日，全球主要的三大央行启 动紧缩政策，再度冲击金融市场，特别是美日达成协议，日美持续贬值，黄金承压迎来大跌。 另外一方面，昨天一个数据，美耐用品订单月率，这个也是受关税冲击的数据，意外结果超预期，并未 受到关税的影响。以及重点，美联储再释放信号，不受特朗普影响，坚持美联储独立性。包括欧美谈判 持续进展在内，继续给关税影响降温，黄金继续跳水。 下周止跌调整先看3348的位置，再反弹突破，持续看到3377的阻力。 不过，面临3348的位置，再次遇阻。 下方回调，先看到3309的支撑。 看上方调整，以及反弹挑战3348的位置。 下方若持续回调，再穿3309的位置，延续大的空头，穿3300，看下方3282的支撑。 黄金4个月连涨后，到本月迎来了连续3个月高位调整，特别是大 ...

Core Insights - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 37.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.77 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 37.16 billion yuan, compared to 34.44 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, marking a 7.91% increase [3] - Operating profit reached 16.12 billion yuan, a 3.09% increase from 15.63 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Total profit was 16.05 billion yuan, up 3.18% from 15.56 billion yuan [3] - Basic earnings per share increased to 2.24 yuan, an 8.21% rise from 2.07 yuan [3] - The annualized return on average equity decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 13.80% [3] Asset Quality - As of June 2025, the non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, unchanged from the end of the first quarter [5] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 374.16%, up 3.62 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating enhanced risk mitigation capacity [5] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 0.33 percentage points to 9.65% [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans and advances reached 1.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [4] - The growth rate of loans and advances was 18.7%, although it decreased by 1.7 percentage points compared to the end of the first quarter [4] - Total deposits amounted to 2.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, but a decline of 4.9 percentage points from the end of the first quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - Puma's stock price plummeted by 19% due to warnings of annual sales decline and potential losses in 2025, alongside quarterly sales falling short of expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decrease in annual sales and expects to incur losses in 2025 [1] - Quarterly sales figures were below market expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in brand momentum [1] Group 2: External Factors - The performance is adversely affected by U.S. tariffs on imported products, which could lead to a reduction in gross profit of approximately €80 million by 2025 [1] - Despite efforts to optimize the supply chain and adjust pricing, the impact of tariffs remains significant [1]