Group 1 - Alcon (ALC.US) experienced a pre-market drop of over 10% following a downward revision of its 2025 net sales outlook, citing the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs for the remainder of the year [1] - The company's net sales forecast was adjusted from a range of $10.4 billion to $10.5 billion in May to a new range of $10.3 billion to $10.4 billion [1] - Nearly half of Alcon's revenue is generated from the U.S. market, making it significantly vulnerable to changes in U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2 - As of August 19, Alcon's closing price was $90.00, while the pre-market price on August 20 was $80.83, reflecting a decrease of $9.29 or 10.31% [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $44.575 billion, with a total share count of 495 million [1] - Alcon's stock has a 52-week high of $100.788 and a low of $80.232, indicating significant volatility in its share price [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.1 billion USD for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million USD, showing a decrease of 7.16% [1]. - The manufacturing segment generated 2.8 billion USD in revenue, up 6.2%, with a gross margin of 17.7%, down 1.4 percentage points [1]. - The retail segment demonstrated significant growth, with a revenue increase of over 30% for the outdoor line Pony and a 100% surge in live-stream sales [3]. - The company is implementing cost-saving measures to counteract rising labor costs and has a strong cash flow position with total cash nearing 900 million USD [2]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - The demand for footwear products continues to show steady growth, supported by a favorable order mix and an increase in average selling price (ASP) to 20.6 USD per pair, up 3.2% [1][2]. - The company is enhancing research and development efficiency and implementing cost-saving measures to mitigate labor cost pressures [2]. - The financial management is robust, with a stable cash flow and a mid-term dividend of 0.4 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 48% [2]. Retail Business - The diversified business matrix has proven effective, with the yoga brand XEXYMIX achieving vertical integration and the outdoor line Pony seeing sales growth exceeding 30% [3]. - The gross margin for Q2 reached 34.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, due to successful pricing strategy adjustments [3]. - The all-channel revenue contribution reached a record high of 33%, growing 16% year-on-year, with live-stream sales experiencing a significant increase [3]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 8.3 billion USD, 8.8 billion USD, and 9.4 billion USD, respectively, due to tariff pressures [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to remain stable at 400 million USD for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.25 USD [4].

Core Viewpoint - Eagle Precision (01286) has experienced a decline of over 5%, currently trading at 3.75 HKD, with a transaction volume of 10.97 million HKD. The company announced that approximately 40% of its products sold to the U.S. are subject to new tariffs, significantly impacting its business operations and profitability [1]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The company reported that about 40% of its product value sold to the U.S. is under "Delivered Duty Paid" terms, meaning the company is responsible for shipping, customs clearance, and paying all applicable taxes and tariffs [1]. - Approximately 60% of the products included in this category are affected by the new tariff list, which imposes additional tariffs that exceed the company's gross margin [1]. - The imposition of these additional tariffs has made the company's supply chain commercially unviable and could potentially constitute a force majeure event [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Revenue - As of the end of last year, revenue from sales to the U.S. accounted for approximately 44.4% of the company's total revenue [1]. - The company is currently negotiating with customers regarding the potential transfer of the additional tariffs, making it difficult to assess the specific impact on its business and operations at this time [1]. - The company will continue to monitor the situation closely and will take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the additional tariffs on its business and operations [1].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In the US, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32% in July, aligning with expectations, with forecasts suggesting a monthly increase of 0.3%-0.4% in the coming months due to tariffs affecting core goods prices, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and clothing [1][2] - The forecast for core CPI/PCE inflation rates is projected to reach 3.2% by December, with expectations of a decline towards target levels next year as tariff impacts diminish and the labor market cools [1][2] Group 2: China's Economic Situation - In contrast to the US, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell into deep deflation, with a forecasted PPI inflation rate of -2.8% for this year and -1.0% for next year, attributed to severe overcapacity issues [2][3] Group 3: Economic Data Reliability - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of US economic data, with evidence of a slight decline in data quality over the long term, potentially impacting the information value of economic indicators [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Events - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin has generated skepticism in the market regarding its potential to significantly alter Russian gas supplies or lead to a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine, with natural gas prices remaining stable [7] - The meeting is not expected to result in substantial changes to Russian oil supply, as constraints are primarily due to OPEC+ quotas and investment levels rather than US sanctions [7] Group 5: UK Monetary Policy - Following hawkish signals from the Bank of England, the expected timeline for interest rate adjustments has been pushed back, with forecasts for the terminal rate now anticipated to be reached in April instead of March [8] - The GBP is expected to face depreciation risks, leading to revised forecasts for EUR/GBP and GBP/USD exchange rates [8] Group 6: Tariff Impacts - The US has announced higher tariffs on India and Switzerland, which are expected to negatively impact economic growth in these countries [9] Group 7: Economic and Market Predictions - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with specific forecasts for major economies including the US (1.7%), China (4.7%), and the Euro area (1.2%) [10] - Policy rates are expected to adjust, with the US rate forecasted at 3.13% for 2026 [10] Group 8: Commodity and Currency Markets - Predictions for commodity prices include Brent crude oil at $111 per barrel and natural gas prices at $3.90 per million British thermal units for 2025 [12] - Currency forecasts indicate a potential increase in the EUR/GBP exchange rate to 0.87 over the next three months [8]

Market Overview - The US dollar index showed no clear trend this week, dropping below 98 due to moderate inflation data, but rebounding after higher-than-expected PPI data suggested future inflation may rise [1] - Spot gold prices fell significantly, influenced by Trump's announcement regarding tariffs on gold bars, but found some support from a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Non-US currencies like the euro and pound rose against the dollar for the second consecutive week, while the dollar-yen pair saw slight declines amid expectations of potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [1] - International oil prices hit a two-month low due to pessimistic supply forecasts from IEA, but rebounded later in the week [1] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, with a terminal rate between 3% and 3.25% [5] - Nomura Securities anticipates three consecutive rate cuts by March next year, while Bank of America suggests dissenting opinions may arise during the September meeting [5] - Deutsche Bank warns that Trump's attacks on US institutions pose a threat to the dollar, while Dutch analysts believe the dollar cannot sustain gains even with rising inflation [5] Major Events - The upcoming summit between Trump and Putin is expected to address the potential for a peace agreement regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with discussions on territorial exchanges likely [6][7] - The US inflation data released this week has significantly increased expectations for a rate cut in September, with the probability reaching as high as 95% [10] - Trump's nomination of E.J. Antony, a critic of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to lead the agency may influence future employment data reporting [11][12] Economic Policies - A new personal consumption loan subsidy policy will be implemented from September 2025, providing a 1% annual subsidy for eligible loans, with a maximum subsidy cap of 3,000 yuan [17] - Goldman Sachs maintains its prediction that tariff costs will eventually be passed on to consumers, estimating that two-thirds of the total cost will be borne by them [18][19] Corporate Developments - The US government is negotiating to acquire a stake in Intel to support its chip manufacturing center in Ohio, which has seen multiple delays [20][21] - Berkshire Hathaway sold 20 million shares of Apple in Q2 2024, reducing its stake to 280 million shares, while also investing in other companies like Chevron and Domino's Pizza [26]

Core Viewpoint - Tapestry's stock plummeted over 13%, marking its largest drop since March 2020, closing at $97.94 due to concerns over future earnings guidance and tariff impacts [1] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Tapestry reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.04, exceeding analyst expectations by $0.02 [1] - The company's quarterly sales reached $1.72 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.68 billion [1] Future Outlook - Tapestry forecasts diluted earnings per share for fiscal year 2026 to be between $5.30 and $5.45, reflecting a growth of 4% to 7% year-over-year, but falling short of analyst expectations of $5.49 [1] - The company attributed the earnings guidance shortfall primarily to tariff impacts, which are expected to negatively affect earnings by $0.60 per share [1] Market Reaction - The market reaction to Tapestry's earnings report was negative, as investors appeared to have not fully accounted for the tariff costs, leading to a significant decline in stock price [1] - Prior to this drop, Tapestry's stock had seen a year-to-date increase of 74% [1]

Core Insights - Retailers are gradually raising prices on various goods to cope with higher import tariffs, leading to a slight increase in core inflation for U.S. consumers in July [1] - The median forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg indicates that the U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, up from a 0.2% increase in June, marking the largest increase this year [1] - Despite the rise in Core CPI, lower gasoline prices are expected to keep the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase in July below 0.2% [1] Industry Impact - The imposition of higher tariffs by the U.S. on trade partners is beginning to affect consumer prices in categories such as home goods and leisure products [1] - Although indicators measuring core service inflation remain moderate, economists generally expect the impact of increased tariffs to continue to manifest gradually [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady this year, while signs of a cooling labor market have emerged, creating a dilemma for the Fed, which is tasked with both stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [1] - As concerns about the sustainability of the job market grow, many companies are seeking ways to minimize the transfer of tariff costs to consumers [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The US July CPI was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[2] - Core CPI for July was 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[2] - Service prices increased more than goods prices, indicating a shift in inflation dynamics[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose to nearly 100%, with at least two cuts anticipated by year-end[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest since 1933, which is expected to raise inflation by 1.5-1.8 percentage points[4] - The market anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2% for Q4[5] - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is low, given only three FOMC meetings remaining this year[5]

当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部数据显示，美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨 0.2%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比涨幅为0.3%。这两项数 据均高于上月，其中环比涨幅为近6个月以来的最大值。 尽管7月份核心CPI创半年新高，对于市场预期的美联储9月降息预期而言仍不是好消息，但7月份美国 CPI整体数据显示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。 中金公司宏观研究团队认为，从分项来看，关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一 些此前下跌的服务价格转为上涨，增加了通胀的黏性。美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。 对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上，与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联 储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大幅提升，市场波动将加剧。 开源证券宏观研究团队指出，核心商品的再通胀，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击还在进行中。从美联储 关注的超级核心服务通胀来看，7月份同比、环比增速分别较6月份上升0.19个百分点、0.27个百分点。 往后看，随着低基数效应的出现、关税影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes that its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - The target price for Yue Yuen has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1] - Management expects a high single-digit year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders for Q3 due to a high base effect, with gross margins also expected to decline year-on-year for the same reason [1] - For Q4, an increase in shipment volume is anticipated, which is expected to be the highest level for the year [1] Group 2: Customer and Market Dynamics - Shoe manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, waiting for clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on end markets [1] - Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of manufacturing sales, have requested to share the burden of tariffs [1] Group 3: Sales Performance - The average selling price of the manufacturing business is expected to increase year-on-year due to product mix improvements, with an overall expected low single-digit year-on-year growth in average selling price for the year [1] - Retail business continues to face discount pressure due to weak consumer demand in China, with sales performance in July and August being weak [1]