Core Insights - The focus of national development is shifting from "quantitative recovery" post-pandemic to "qualitative leap" in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "high-level technological self-reliance" and aims for a dual goal of "effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [5][11] Group 1: Economic and Industrial Strategy - The national strategy is entering a new cycle centered on innovation efficiency, industrial structure, and regional collaboration, marking a shift from "policy following" to "system co-creation" [4] - The plan aims to build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone, focusing on future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy [11] - The transition from "incremental manufacturing" to "efficiency manufacturing" indicates a shift in focus from merely increasing production to optimizing resource allocation [12] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Hard technology investment, including semiconductors and advanced materials, is positioned as a foundational logic for "systematic breakthroughs" [10] - Investment institutions are encouraged to engage in pre-financing and result transformation for national technology tasks, fostering capital co-creation [10] - The emphasis on "entrepreneurial investment + risk-sharing mechanisms" presents opportunities for investment firms to participate in national innovation initiatives [10] Group 3: Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" elevates green development from a secondary goal to a structural institution, influencing all industrial allocations [17] - The integration of green issues into financial and market mechanisms signifies a shift in perspective, making green development a capital issue [17] - Sustainable investment opportunities in green infrastructure and carbon asset management are expected to grow [20] Group 4: Consumer and Market Dynamics - The plan positions consumption upgrade as a core driver of economic structural transformation, moving from recovery to quality enhancement [22] - The "silver economy" is recognized as a significant industrial opportunity, transforming aging issues into growth engines [22][25] - Investment opportunities in healthcare, elder care, and technology-assisted living are anticipated to rise due to demographic shifts [25] Group 5: Regional Development - The focus of regional policy is shifting from "development gradient" to "structural coordination," promoting a unified market and efficient resource allocation [27] - Investment institutions are encouraged to collaborate with local guiding funds to strengthen project foundations and facilitate new industry development in less developed regions [30] Group 6: Financial Market Reforms - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes structural improvements in capital markets, transitioning from a focus on financing to a comprehensive investment-funding-exit cycle [32] - Direct investment institutions are identified as key players in building a strong financial nation, with multiple exit pathways being developed [35] - The plan aims to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting direct financing methods [31] Strategic Summary - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines new engines for China's economic growth, including technological innovation and green transformation, while establishing a more inclusive capital market system [36] - Investment institutions are encouraged to align their strategies with national planning, leveraging professional judgment to identify promising sectors and companies for investment [36]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the "Industry Scope List for Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)," significantly expanding the asset categories included in infrastructure REITs, reflecting the internal demand for economic transformation and the public's desire for a better life [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion of Asset Categories - The new list includes high-quality asset categories such as sports venues, commercial travel and cultural sports complexes, four-star and above hotels, commercial office facilities, and urban renewal facilities, marking a major breakthrough in the scope of infrastructure REITs [1][2]. - Since the launch of infrastructure REITs in 2020, the market has continuously expanded, now covering 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types from 10 industries already achieving their first issuance [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Infrastructure and Sports Consumption - The expansion of the scope to include consumer infrastructure signifies a shift in understanding, moving from merely providing shopping spaces to offering high-quality living and service experiences [2][3]. - The inclusion of sports venues supports the national strategy for public fitness and expands new spaces for sports consumption, aligning with government efforts to enhance financial support for the sports industry [3][4]. Group 3: Commercial Office Facilities - The list allows independent commercial office facilities to issue REITs for the first time, which aligns with international REIT market practices and is a cautious decision based on China's national conditions [4][5]. - This move is expected to significantly expand asset scale and attract a broader range of investors, while also providing stable operating spaces and quality business environments for the real economy [4][5]. Group 4: Urban Renewal Facilities - Urban renewal facilities have been included as an independent category, providing strong financial support for national urban renewal strategies [5]. - The introduction of infrastructure REITs is seen as a solution to challenges such as large investment scales and long recovery periods in urban renewal projects, promoting a sustainable operational model and enhancing the long-term vitality of updated areas [5].

Core Insights - The global economy is facing significant downward risks, while the Chinese market demonstrates resilience and offers strategic opportunities for global enterprises due to its unique scale and competitive advantages [1][8]. Consumption Market - China's consumer market is characterized by continuous growth in scale, structural optimization, and improving quality, leading to a significant competitive advantage [2]. - From 2014 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to grow from 26.2 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, reflecting both total volume and structural optimization [2]. - By 2024, final consumption expenditure is expected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth, solidifying its role as the primary driver of economic expansion [2]. Investment Market - China's investment market is attractive due to its complete industrial system, continuously upgrading industrial structure, and significant investment returns [4]. - China is the only country with all industrial categories recognized by the United Nations, showcasing strong resilience in its manufacturing sector [4]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, indicating substantial investment demand potential [4]. Innovation Ecosystem - China's innovation ecosystem benefits from a vast array of application scenarios, rapid technological iteration, and a strong talent pool [5]. - China ranks 10th in the Global Innovation Index, marking a significant rise and leading among middle-income economies [5]. - As of July 2024, 250 million people in China have received higher education, providing a robust talent reserve for innovation [5][6]. Market Environment - The continuous improvement of China's market environment is evident through deepened institutional openness, optimized business conditions, and the establishment of fair competition [7]. - Since the establishment of the first free trade zone in 2013, significant institutional innovations have been replicated nationwide, enhancing foreign investment conditions [7]. - By the end of 2024, the total number of registered business entities in China is expected to reach 189 million, fostering a collaborative development environment among state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises [7]. Overall Market Advantages - China's market advantages are comprehensive and systemic, characterized by a large and continuously upgrading consumer market, a solid and improving investment environment, a vibrant and talent-rich innovation ecosystem, and an increasingly open and transparent institutional environment [8]. - In the face of global economic uncertainties, China's stability and growth potential are particularly valuable, with expectations of maintaining a high contribution rate to global economic growth over the next five years [8].

已有60年历史的法国酸奶品牌优诺，其中国业务将迎来新的主人。 上述交易完成后，天图资本将从优诺中国彻底退出。 在相关公告中，天图投资表示，公司预计将通过该股权出售事项录得亏损79.9万元。但通过回笼资金，可用于一般运营或其他投资机会。 12月1日，天图投资宣布，拟以8.14亿元对价出售间接持有的优诺中国45.22%股权，与此同时，其他卖方以及管理层，将同步进行股权转让。 接盘方昆山诺源睿源，将以约18亿元，收购优诺中国100%股权，IDG资本将拿到优诺中国业务的运营权。 从通用磨坊到天图，如今"酸奶贵族"的接力棒，传到了IDG资本手中。 天图退出优诺中国 历时6年多，天图资本将优诺在中国的业务，由小做到大、由亏损做到盈利，终于选择了退出。 12月1日，天图投资（01973.HK）披露公告，拟以8.14亿元对价，出售公司通过兴启投资及天图兴鹏间接持有的优诺中国约45.22%股权。 与此同时，其他卖方天图兴南、平潭兴旭将同步出售所持优诺中国约41.74%股权，对价为7.51亿元。 优诺中国的另一股东天津睿隽，目前持股约13.04%，为管理层持股平台。这部分股权也将与卖方协商出售，对价不超过2.35亿元。 | | ...

规模质量齐升 今年以来，我国赛事经济规模与质量同步提升，国际顶级赛事集聚效应显著增强。这不仅展现了我 国承办大型赛事的能力，更形成了强大经济拉动效应。 不久前闭幕的十五运会，对消费的拉动效应远超体育范畴，形成了以赛事为核心，辐射旅游、餐 饮、住宿、交通、零售等多元产业的消费生态体系。赛事期间，粤港澳大湾区文旅市场迎来爆发式增 长，"跟着赛事去旅行"成为最具热度的消费新风尚。截至11月16日，十五运会市场开发收入已达18.4亿 元，涵盖赞助、捐赠、门票、特许经营等多个方面，展现出顶级赛事IP强大的经济效益。 今年国庆中秋假期，上海创新推出"赛事黄金周"模式，集中举办了2025上海劳力士大师赛、世界赛 艇锦标赛等六大国际顶级赛事，累计吸引现场观众超80万人次，其中境外观众占比达15%，创下上海国 际赛事境外观赛人数新高。上海劳力士大师赛全程吸引约25万人次现场观赛，其中长三角地区观众占比 达45%，显示出强大的区域辐射能力。赛事期间，上海四星级以上酒店平均入住率达96%，重点商圈销 售额同比增长42%。 2025年，赛事经济迸发强劲活力，以多元形态融入经济社会发展脉络，成为拉动内需、促进消费升 级的重要力量。从国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage market is experiencing a significant transformation characterized by rising prices and the decline of the 3 yuan price range, driven by consumer demand for healthier options and changes in the industry landscape [6][17][20]. Price Trends - Traditional beverages priced around 3 yuan are becoming increasingly rare, with many drinks now costing 5 to 6 yuan or more, reflecting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [5][8]. - Major brands like 康师傅 and 可口可乐 have announced price increases for their products, with 康师傅's 500ml iced tea rising from 3 yuan to 3.5 yuan, and 可口可乐's prices also seeing similar hikes [12][16]. Cost Factors - The beverage industry's cost structure includes significant contributions from raw materials such as sugar, PET resin, and packaging, with sugar prices directly impacting beverage pricing [14][16]. - The rising costs of ingredients, particularly sugar, have led to increased prices for traditional sugary drinks, while healthier options often command even higher prices due to their premium ingredients [16][17]. Market Transformation - The beverage market is undergoing a profound change, with new categories like sugar-free teas and functional drinks gaining popularity, reflecting a shift towards health-conscious consumption [17][20]. - This transformation is not merely about price increases but involves a complete restructuring of the industry value chain and competitive landscape, emphasizing health, personalization, and emotional value [18][20]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for beverages that offer cleaner ingredients and health benefits, indicating a fundamental shift in consumer values [18][20]. - The new beverage era prioritizes product development, supply chain efficiency, and deep consumer insights over traditional price competition [20].

Core Insights - The rise of the ice and snow economy is driven by a dual interaction between new supply and new demand, leading to a dynamic balance that promotes high-quality economic development in China [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The ice and snow economy is becoming a new consumption hotspot, with activities like skiing, ice sculpture, and snow fishing gaining popularity [1] - In Harbin, the average daily search volume for the Ice and Snow World increased by nearly 163% since mid-October, indicating a surge in consumer interest [2] - The number of ice and snow-related enterprises in Harbin exceeded 2,300, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% over the past three years [2] Group 2: Economic Growth - China's ice and snow industry is projected to grow from 270 billion yuan in 2015 to 980 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [4] - The participation in ice and snow sports and related consumption is expected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan during the 2024-2025 winter season, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [4] Group 3: Industry Integration - The "ice and snow +" model is expanding the economic landscape, integrating various sectors such as education, tourism, culture, and agriculture [5][6] - The integration of multiple business formats is enriching the service offerings of the ice and snow economy, transitioning from single sports consumption to a comprehensive experience [6] Group 4: Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced a series of supportive policies to enhance the development of the ice and snow economy, including a recent directive with 24 measures to stimulate growth across the entire industry chain [7] - The application of new technologies like 5G and AI is driving high-quality development in ice and snow equipment manufacturing, enhancing user experience [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing development of various new economic forms, such as the "first release economy" and "silver economy," is expected to further stimulate consumer demand and support the growth of the ice and snow economy [8] - The strategic focus on enhancing supply-demand compatibility aims to unlock the potential of China's vast market, contributing to sustainable economic growth [8]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 难有高增长，或有超预期 消费会成为 2026 年宏观热点吗？ 研究结论 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量：10 月经济 数据点评 2025-11-15 为"并跑领跑"时代构筑制度根基：宏观 角度看四中全会与"十五五 ...

POLYVOLY旗下有三谷与Reve两大个护品牌，曾经都在天猫上响当当，六年累计销售额达30亿。 POLYVOLY还获得过总计超1亿元的融资。 然而，POLYVOLY欠下大笔债务，先后被超20家企业告上法庭。今年10月，POLYVOLY在债务到期前 无法清偿，且资不抵债，向法院申请破产清算。 2023年至今，POLYVOLY还两次被列入失信被执行人名单，两任法人代表多次被限制高消费。 又一家明星公司要倒下了。 据消费媒体"沥金"报道，保利沃利科技（武汉）有限公司（下称POLYVOLY）进入破产清算阶段。 POLYVOLY创办初期，铅笔道就做过报道，并见证了它攀上巅峰。10年一转眼，一家明星公司，为何 走到这一步？ 当时，正是天猫商城快速上升期，整个社会的主题词是"消费升级"，POLYVOLY诞生的时机很好，团 队背景也很好。 2016年，李梓嘉结束上一段创业，从高压状态中刚刚解脱，寻找新的创业方向。她想到，如果一款产 品，可以在几分钟的时间内取悦自己，短暂忘却生活中的压力，可能会受工作繁忙的职场女性欢迎。 李梓嘉开始对个人护理市场调研，她想起自己曾在英国洗护品牌Lush的专卖店闲逛，Lush的固态泡澡产 品— ...

挪威渔业与海洋政策大臣玛丽安·西佛森·奈斯在致辞中表示："中国是挪威最重要的海产贸易伙伴之一。我们高度重视与中国合作伙伴、客户的关系，希 望通过更紧密的合作，让更多优质、可持续的挪威海产品走进中国家庭。随着中国消费结构升级，我们也期待在贸易和产业层面进一步深化协作，共同推动 双边海产贸易的稳步增长。" 资料显示，2025年前十个月，中国共进口143,743吨大西洋三文鱼，同比增长47%。截至今年第二季度，中国从2023年的第八位跃升成为大西洋三文鱼 全球第六大市场，超越巴西、西班牙等该品类传统消费大国，增长势头强劲。作为中国最大的大西洋三文鱼进口来源国，挪威今年对华出口表现尤其突出。 今年前十个月，挪威对华出口三文鱼76,901吨，同比增长111%；出口额达到68.11亿挪威克朗，同比增长67%。同时，挪威三文鱼在华市场占有率也稳步增 长，持续占据领导地位。 需求快速增长的背后，是消费结构的深刻变化。三文鱼消费潜力正伴随着中国中产人群的扩大加速释放。对于消费者而言，选择三文鱼既出于健康饮食 的考量，也为了满足味蕾、追求高品质的生活方式。挪威海产局近期的一项研究表明，家庭消费已成为三文鱼的最主要消费场景，约占总 ...