Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况 金十数据7月1日讯，美联储古尔斯比表示，在失业率接近4%、通胀率约为2.5%且不断下降的情况下， 他认为关税或其他供应冲击不可能在短期内造成真正的20世纪70年代式的滞胀，当时的失业率是现在的 两倍，通胀率超过13%。古尔斯比说："但绝对有可能出现两种情况同时恶化的情况。你通常会说，双 方的差异会持续多久？你认为这是暂时的还是永久的？双方的差距有多大......这就是我思考问题的方 式。"他没有对这些变量做出预测。 ...

摩根大通对美元前景持看空态度，认为美国经济增长放缓与其他地区政策刺激将削弱美元相对优势。债市方面，报告预测随着美国债务规模持续膨胀，传统 大买家对美债的需求占比将下降，可能导致期限溢价上升四十到五十个基点。 对于美联储政策路径，该行预期与市场共识存在显著分歧。摩根大通预计首次降息将推迟至今年年底到明年年初，累计幅度约一百个基点，远低于期货市场 押注的今年两次降息。"只有经济出现超预期放缓或衰退，才会触发更激进的宽松周期，"分析师强调。 尽管对宏观经济持谨慎态度，摩根大通却维持对美股的乐观看法。报告认为，在科技/AI板块强劲基本面支撑下，配合系统性资金的持续流入，美股创新高 的阻力仍然最小。"除非出现重大政策或地缘风险，当前市场动能有望延续，"分析师表示。 摩根大通最新研究报告发出警示，美国当前贸易政策可能在全球范围内产生双重冲击——既拖累经济增长，又重燃通胀压力。该行将美国下半年陷入经济衰 退的概率上调至百分之四十，同时下调今年GDP增长预期至百分之一点三，较年初预测的百分之二大幅调降。 这份年中展望报告特别指出，关税政策引发的"滞胀压力"是下调美国经济增长预期的关键因素。滞胀这一经济学术语特指经济增长停滞与 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 BIS指出，增长前景恶化，同时消费者价格稳定、公共财政和金融系统的风险加剧。面对挑战，官员们 建议央行专注核心使命以维护信任，并增强行动有效性。 卡斯滕斯强调美联储在当前环境中尤其艰难，其主席鲍威尔坚决抵制来自白宫的降息压力。"在美国， 美联储可能面临非常困难的局面，即通胀压力上升或通胀预期偏离，同时经济放缓，"他说，"这是央行 通常觉得特别棘手的情况。" BIS报告频繁强调通胀风险，包括贸易中断如何冲击已受人口老龄化和劳动力短缺挤压的经济体，并损 害商品供应。官员们强调，疫情后消费者敏感度上升，结合仍高企的生活成本预期，可能对价格稳定构 成新挑战。 这一分析结合近期原油价格飙升（随后部分回落）可能让政策制定者警惕。BIS经济顾问申炫松（Hyun Song Shin）称："一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，确保一次性价格上涨不转化为持续通胀至关重要。" 报告还指出，部分国家积累的史无前例的国债构成风险。经合组织成员国利息支付占GDP比例去年达 4%并将继续上升。"通胀和金融稳定风险更易源自主权债市压力或通过其传播，"BIS称，"对财政可持 续性的担忧可能引发再融资挑战，并潜在颠覆通 ...

Economic Trends - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with hard data beginning to align with previous soft data trends, confirming earlier conclusions about a cyclical downturn starting in 2025[2] - The PMI is below 50% and overall economic conditions are deteriorating, indicating stagflation similar to the situation in 1985[4] Currency and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% in the last five months, dropping from a historical percentile of 86% to 57%[2] - Despite the dollar's decline, the U.S. stock market has reached new highs, which was previously underestimated in terms of resilience[2] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that during similar periods of dollar depreciation (over 11% in five months), the stock market generally experienced gains, particularly in 1985, 2009, and 2010[3] - The current market conditions resemble those of 1985 and 2002, where the stock market did not experience significant declines prior to the dollar's depreciation, affecting subsequent rebounds[4] Future Outlook - The continuation of the current trend of a declining dollar and rising stock market will depend on economic recovery and policy measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing[4] - The stock market's equity risk premium (ERP) has returned to negative territory, indicating low value for future rebounds compared to historical standards[4] Inflation Concerns - Input inflation is expected to rise due to the dollar's weakness, with predictions that CPI will exceed 3% by the end of the year if monthly increases remain around 0.2%[8] - Recent data quality issues in CPI calculations have raised concerns about the accuracy of inflation metrics, with estimation rates increasing from 10% to 30%[7] Policy Implications - The potential for tax cuts and monetary easing in the second half of the year could significantly impact inflation and market dynamics[6] - The balance of Trump's aggressive policies and their effects on market perceptions will be crucial in determining future market stability[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

美国劳动力市场的降温迹象同样引人关注。美国劳工部数据显示，持续领取失业救济金人数攀升至一百九十七点四万，创下二零二一年十一月以来的新高。 这一趋势与消费者信心指数的持续下滑相呼应，显示高物价和就业市场的不确定性正在抑制家庭支出意愿。 此次GDP终值下修主要归因于消费者支出和出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济增长的核心驱动力，一季度个人消费支出仅增长百分之零点五，远低于去年 四季度的百分之四，创下二零二一年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增百分之三十七点九导致净出口拖累GDP高达四点七个百分点，反映出企业为规避 未来关税上调而提前囤积库存的影响。 尽管进口数据的下修部分抵消了消费疲软的拖累，但美国整体经济仍呈现需求放缓的趋势。一季度美国国内需求增长率从初值的百分之三点零一路下调至百 分之一点九，联邦支出更是以百分之四点六的速度下滑，创下二零二二年以来的最大降幅。与此同时，核心PCE物价指数终值上修至百分之三点五，表明通 胀压力仍未缓解，进一步加剧了市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧。 美国商务部最新公布的数据显示，今年第一季度美国经济按年率计算萎缩百分之零点五，较此前预估的负百分之零点二进一步下调，这也是自二零二二年一 季 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 中东战争结束叠加特朗普拟提前公布下任联 储主席人选，市场全面转向 Risk On 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 23 日-6 月 27 日），有色板块本周上涨 5.11%，在全部一级行 业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 7.21%，工业金属板块上涨 6.53%，小金属板块上涨 4.46%，贵金属板块下跌 1.48%， 金属新材料板块上涨 3.72%。工业金属方面，伊朗与以色列迅速达成停火协议，地 缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on，风偏的上行以及降息的预期于本周大 幅推升工业金属价格。贵金属方面，地缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on， 风偏的上行短暂压制黄金价格，我们认为市场并未充分计价美国经济步入滞胀的风 险，预计 7 月通胀上行速度将加快，黄金届时或迎来新一轮上升机会。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：长单 TC 持续回落，市场风偏上行叠加 LME 逼仓风险助推铜价上行。截至 6 月 27 日，伦铜报收 9,879 美 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing rapid shifts in sentiment due to various driving factors, including geopolitical risks, unexpected policy announcements, and conflicting macroeconomic data [1][2] - Geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., have a direct and strong impact on market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in oil prices (over 11%) and a rise in U.S. stock markets [1] - Unexpected policy announcements, particularly from political figures like Trump regarding trade negotiations and sanctions, can quickly reverse market gains, highlighting the fragility of the current optimistic sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The presence of contradictory macroeconomic signals, such as a decline in U.S. GDP alongside an increase in core PCE, indicates early signs of "stagflation," complicating market assessments of economic conditions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policies is heightened by these macroeconomic indicators, potentially affecting market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Upcoming bank stress test results, while routine, could amplify market vulnerabilities if negative surprises occur, especially following the banking turmoil of 2023 [2] Group 3 - The focus for the upcoming week will shift to key economic data, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report being crucial for assessing labor market health and its implications for economic growth and inflation [3] - The importance of the services PMI is emphasized, as the services sector is a major component of the U.S. economy, while global manufacturing challenges are indicated by China's PMI contraction [3] - European inflation and employment data will also play a significant role in shaping the European Central Bank's policy outlook [3] Group 4 - The upcoming holiday factors, such as Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day, are expected to reduce market liquidity, which could lead to more volatile market reactions to economic data and unexpected news [4] - In a low liquidity environment, even expected data releases may trigger more severe market movements, increasing the risk of "flash crashes" or "flash rallies" [4] Group 5 - The market is entering a critical period characterized by multiple intertwined uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, policy changes, conflicting macro data, and holiday liquidity [5] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant, focusing not only on the data results but also on their potential impacts on economic outlooks and policy expectations [5] - Effective risk management and flexible response strategies are essential in navigating this complex environment, as the market's next direction will largely depend on the evolution of these interacting forces [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the trade war will lead to stagflation tendencies in the second half of 2025, with global GDP growth expected to slow to an annualized rate of 1.4% and core inflation rising to 3.4% due to inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [2][3] - The commodity production sector is expected to be the first to feel the impact of economic slowdown, with global factory output and capital spending projected to contract [2] - Despite rising inflation in the U.S., lower-than-expected growth is likely to drive moderate deflation in other regions, with the Eurozone's core inflation rate expected to fall below 2% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley assesses that the global GDP growth has an upward risk bias for the second half of 2025, driven by a positive evaluation of the private sector's health, a supportive financial environment, and expected fiscal policy easing [3] - The risk of a significant growth surprise is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of the U.S. entering a recession, driven by concerns over household purchasing power and low corporate sentiment [3] - The behavior of a still-healthy corporate sector, particularly avoiding layoffs, is crucial for maintaining U.S. economic expansion, although this may come at the cost of profit margin compression [3]