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黄金“疯狂”背后,资金已有分歧
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-11 00:51
2025.09.11 本文字数:2198,阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 曹璐 封图 |AI生成 金价的每一次突破,都在给黄金板块"添柴","黄金热"氛围不断升温。 在金价强势带动下,A股与港股黄金板块同步跟涨。Wind数据显示,截至9月10日,SSH黄金股票 (931238.CSI)成份股年内平均涨幅突破80%;同时,黄金热潮更蔓延至金融产品端,黄金类ETF业绩 也"水涨船高",尤其是股票型黄金ETF,6只产品年内平均上涨74.89%。 在配置热情与业绩表现的双重推动下,黄金类ETF的规模快速扩张。据第一财经计算,目前20只黄金 ETF的年内总规模已增加近1.3倍。不过,不同类型黄金ETF的资金流向呈现显著分化,黄金股ETF在三 季度以来持续吸引资金流入,而商品型黄金ETF则整体遭遇净赎回。 这场由金价飙升引发的"黄金热",正从现货市场向股票市场、金融产品持续渗透。面对持续走高的金 价,黄金的涨势还会持续吗? 业绩亮眼引关注 自年初以来,黄金价格一路震荡走高,进入8月下旬后更是加速突破。Wind数据显示,截至9月10日, COMEX黄金近15个交易日上涨9.08%,年内涨幅进一步扩大至38.73%。从 ...
黄金“疯狂”背后,资金已有分歧
第一财经· 2025-09-11 00:43
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing surge in gold prices and its positive impact on the gold sector, leading to increased interest and investment in gold-related financial products and stocks [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of 38.73% year-to-date as of September 10, 2023 [5]. - The international gold price started at $2,625 per ounce and reached a historical high of over $3,700 per ounce [5]. - The SSH gold stock index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 73.18%, with individual stocks experiencing average gains exceeding 80% [5][6]. Group 2: Performance of Gold ETFs - The average year-to-date increase for 20 gold ETFs is 46.63%, with stock-type gold ETFs outperforming at an average increase of 74.89% [6]. - Since July, over 3 billion yuan has flowed into gold stock ETFs, indicating strong investor interest [6]. - In contrast, commodity-type gold ETFs have faced net outflows, totaling over 10.5 billion yuan, as investors took profits [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some expressing uncertainty about the sustainability of the current gold price rally [8]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts and inflation concerns, could continue to support gold prices [9][10]. - The overall trend indicates a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term, with expectations of continued central bank purchases and a potential increase in gold's share of global reserves [10].
非农就业下修近百万 美联储降息压力加大
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-10 17:46
当地时间9月9日,美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布的年度基准修订初步结果显示,截至今年3月的过去12 个月,美国新增非农就业岗位比此前估计少91.1万个,相当于平均每月少7.6万个。这一下修幅度为20多 年来罕见。此前赞誉美国经济韧性和就业市场强劲的经济学家和市场人士突然意识到美国经济衰退甚至 滞胀风险。 市场对本次数据下修的预期为约70万。在本次数据公布前,美国财长贝森特也预警年度非农就业数据可 能下修多达80万。然而,最终的下修幅度远比市场普遍预期的程度还要糟糕。此前公布的数据显示,8 月美国非农就业人数仅增加2.2万,远低于预期的7万多人,也低于过去3个月平均增长2.9万人。甚至更 早这一趋势就已现端倪,6月的就业数据录得自2022年12月以来的首次月度下降,实际减少了1.3万个就 业岗位。 有分析指出,数据显示美国劳动力市场实际表现明显弱于劳工统计局最初的估计。摩根大通首席执行官 (CEO)杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)表示,这些数据修订证实了美国经济正在放缓、走弱,"我不确定 它仅仅是走弱,还是正在走向衰退"。牛津经济研究院称,"美国经济停滞在上个月(8月)变得更加明 显,还与通货膨胀和失业率高企 ...
20只黄金ETF规模增近1.3倍 黄金“疯”背后资金已有分歧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 17:11
这场由金价飙升引发的"黄金热",正从现货市场向股票市场、金融产品持续渗透。面对持续走高的金 价,黄金的涨势还会持续吗? 业绩亮眼引关注 自年初以来,黄金价格一路震荡走高,进入8月下旬后更是加速突破。Wind数据显示,截至9月10日, COMEX黄金近15个交易日上涨9.08%,年内涨幅进一步扩大至38.73%。从价格走势看,国际金价自年 初2625美元/盎司起步后持续攀升,其间一度突破3700美元/盎司大关,创下历史新高。 [ 金价的持续上涨也推动相关产品的净值提升。目前市场共有三类黄金ETF,分别是跟踪SSH黄金股票 的股票型基金,以及跟踪SGE黄金9999、上海金的商品型产品。截至9月9日,这20只黄金ETF的年内平 均涨幅为46.63%。 ] 金价的每一次突破,都在给黄金板块"添柴","黄金热"氛围不断升温。 在金价强势带动下,A股与港股黄金板块同步跟涨。Wind数据显示,截至9月10日,SSH黄金股票 (931238.CSI)成份股年内平均涨幅突破80%;同时,黄金热潮更蔓延至金融产品端,黄金类ETF业绩 也"水涨船高",尤其是股票型黄金ETF,6只产品年内平均上涨74.89%。 在配置热情与业绩表现 ...
One Surprise Inflation Number Could Change The Fed's Next Move - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (ARCA:VOO)
Benzinga· 2025-09-10 15:32
A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. producer prices is bolstering expectations for rate cuts, but with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index on deck, investors will need to brace for a potentially stickier inflation picture.Economists forecast that the August Consumer Price Index will show headline inflation climbing to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. If confirmed, that would be the highest annual pace since January 2025.The core inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is ex ...
中美流动性共振的投资机遇
2025-09-10 14:35
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global financial market, with a focus on the Chinese and American stock markets, monetary policies, and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Liquidity and Asset Prices** Current resonance in monetary policies between China and the U.S. has led to global liquidity easing, benefiting various assets. However, there is a divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals due to the forward-looking nature of asset prices and abundant liquidity [1][2][3] 2. **Chinese Stock Market Dynamics** The Chinese stock market is experiencing high liquidity, indicated by elevated financing balances, account openings, and turnover rates. This liquidity is primarily driven by the transfer of household deposits into the stock market, referred to as "residential deposit migration" [1][4][5] 3. **U.S. Dollar Downtrend** The U.S. dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, with diminishing relative economic advantages for the U.S. This trend is expected to lead to a depreciation of the dollar, creating a favorable investment environment for various assets globally [1][7] 4. **Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuance** The peak issuance of U.S. Treasuries is not expected to significantly impact dollar liquidity or financial markets this year. The overall trend remains one of increasing global liquidity, benefiting various capital forms [1][8] 5. **Inflation and Economic Pressures in the U.S.** The U.S. economy faces dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation, increasing the risk of stagflation. The Federal Reserve may face political pressure to lower interest rates, which would favor gold and Chinese stocks [1][11][22] 6. **Investment Recommendations** It is advised to prioritize allocations in gold, Chinese A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks due to favorable conditions in the current liquidity environment. The recommendation is to maintain a positive outlook and increase allocations during market fluctuations [1][12][31] 7. **Future of U.S. Inflation** U.S. inflation is expected to continue rising due to the disappearance of seasonal distortions and the ongoing effects of tariffs. The inflation rate could reach between 3.5% to 4% in the near term [1][18][21] 8. **Market Volatility and Investment Strategy** The global stock market is currently experiencing volatility, but September and October are seen as favorable investment periods. Investors are encouraged to adopt a proactive approach, increasing allocations in response to market dips [1][28][33] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Quality of U.S. Inflation Data** The quality of U.S. inflation data is compromised by statistical biases and inconsistencies in data collection, which may obscure the true inflationary pressures [1][15][16] 2. **Trade War Impacts** The ongoing U.S. trade war is unlikely to resolve tax burdens completely, with most costs ultimately borne by U.S. consumers and businesses rather than foreign exporters [1][20] 3. **Future Policy Considerations** The future of liquidity in the Chinese market is contingent on government policies and fiscal measures, with potential downturns in liquidity expected if new policies are not introduced [1][26][27] 4. **Investment in Commodities** A cautious approach is recommended for commodity investments due to weak global demand and economic conditions, although specific sectors like rare earths may present opportunities [1][32]
12只个股股价翻倍、主题ETF规模增1.3倍,黄金“疯”背后资金已有分歧
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-10 13:41
Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has significantly boosted the performance of the gold sector, leading to a "gold rush" in both the stock and financial product markets [1][2]. Gold Price Performance - As of September 10, COMEX gold prices have increased by 38.73% year-to-date, with a notable rise of 9.08% in the last 15 trading days [1][2]. - The international gold price started at $2,625 per ounce and reached a historical high of over $3,700 per ounce [1]. Stock Market Performance - The SSH gold stock index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 73.18%, with a 23.09% rise from August 20 to September 11 [2]. - Individual stocks in the gold sector have performed exceptionally well, with 12 stocks doubling in price and companies like WanGuo Gold Group and China National Gold International seeing year-to-date increases exceeding 200% [2]. ETF Performance - Gold ETFs have experienced significant growth, with the total scale of 20 gold ETFs increasing by nearly 1.3 times, reaching approximately 165.79 billion yuan [3]. - Stock-type gold ETFs have outperformed, with an average increase of 74.89% year-to-date, while commodity-type gold ETFs have faced net outflows totaling over 10.5 billion yuan [3]. Investor Sentiment - There is a divide among investors regarding the sustainability of the current gold price surge, with some expressing uncertainty about future trends [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current macroeconomic environment, including concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and inflation, is driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - Institutions generally maintain a "short-term volatility, long-term bullish" outlook for gold prices, with expectations of continued central bank purchases and a low allocation of gold in global reserves [6]. - UBS has raised its gold price targets for 2026, forecasting prices of $3,600 and $3,700 per ounce by March and June, respectively [6].
专访美银中国区行政总裁王伟:金价明年上半年冲击4000美元
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-10 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is increasingly volatile, with geopolitical factors and trade tensions impacting recovery momentum, leading to a surge in gold prices to historical highs [2] Economic Outlook - Despite a complex global environment, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with stable growth expectations for 2025 at 1.8% and 2026 at 1.7% [3][5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations, indicating a slowdown in both labor supply and demand [3][6] Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs have created cost pressures but have limited overall impact on inflation, with a moderate price increase observed as companies do not fully pass costs to consumers [4][5] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately by the end of the year, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index projected to exceed 3% [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December, with potential for further cuts if labor market conditions worsen [6][7] - The market is currently optimistic about a soft landing for the global economy, with 68% of fund managers expecting this outcome [6] Bond Market Insights - The yield curve is experiencing a bull steepening, driven by real interest rate compression, with nominal rates influenced by inflation expectations [7] - The focus on the debt ceiling may impact U.S. Treasury yields, with a dovish Fed stance likely to support mid-term inflation expectations [7] Gold Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $3,750 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by fiscal conditions and potential rate cuts in a high inflation environment [8] Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on dollar, cash, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and healthcare sectors, while being cautious on stocks and emerging markets [9] - Fixed income strategies are shifting towards longer-duration assets, with a positive outlook on agency MBS and investment-grade corporate bonds [10]
美联储陷入“双重风暴”:非农暴雷后通胀反扑?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-10 07:08
美国就业市场的坏消息,可能会促使美联储政策制定者在下周降息。眼下他们最不愿看到的,是通胀再 传坏消息——但或许已别无选择。 即将公布的两份关键物价报告预计将显示,随着美国高关税的影响渗透至经济,通胀仍在上升。8月生 产者价格指数(PPI)与消费者价格指数(CPI)的整体及核心通胀率,均预计出现高于平均水平的涨 幅。 与此同时,美国整体CPI年率可能从2.7%升至2.9%,触及年内高点;被视为"未来通胀更可靠预测指 标"的核心CPI年率则重返3%以上。 最新的坏消息来自一份报告:美国劳工统计局(BLS)高估了2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长, 高估幅度达创纪录的91.1万人。而今年夏季的招聘节奏进一步放缓。 在拜登政府末期及特朗普第二任期初期,就业增长速度大幅放缓,这为美国经济勾勒出一幅截然不同的 图景——相比几个月前,当前经济更脆弱,也更易陷入衰退。 雪上加霜的是,美国正实施数十年来最高水平的关税。这些关税削弱了消费者信心,一定程度上冻结了 企业招聘与投资,还小幅推升了通胀。 定于周三公布的8月PPI预计将显示,整体通胀率与核心通胀率均环比上涨0.3%。该指数旨在捕捉批发 价格变化,即企业间原材料 ...
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-9-10)美债收益反弹 金价冲高回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 06:27
Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 979.68 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 9, spot gold prices peaked at $3675.01 per ounce, marking a new historical high, before closing at $3626 per ounce, down $9.7 or 0.27% [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Israel and Hamas, influenced gold prices, which initially surged before retreating due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data revealed a downward revision of 911,000 in U.S. non-farm payrolls, equivalent to a 0.6% decrease, marking the worst performance on record [5] - Analysts suggest that the downward revision of employment data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders currently pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may face a correction, with potential support levels at $3600 and $3578, while resistance levels are seen at $3700 and $3750 [6]