1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,900 - 73,860 yuan/ton [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high and stable supply from ore and salt lake sources and the weak willingness of the power battery sector to purchase [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.09% day - on - day, with a profit of 833 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica increased by 1.45% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,969 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,780 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 81,150 physical tons next month, a 3.92% increase. The import volume is expected to decrease by 2.22% month - on - month. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day but is lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has intensified [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts have increased to different extents, with the 09 contract increasing by 2.24% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts has changed, with the 09 contract showing a 15.24% change [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products have changed. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.64%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.62% [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [20]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has shown different trends in different years [20]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [20][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [26]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [26][30]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production capacity, utilization rate, and output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed [33]. - Import and Export: There is a supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time [38][41]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have also changed [38][41]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [46]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [50]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries [50]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [50]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [56][59]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [62]. - Production: The production capacity, output, and export volume of ternary materials have changed [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [66]. - Production: The monthly production and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time [74]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [75].

碳酸锂主力合约涨超5%，现报69760元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decline, Focus on Substantial Changes in Supply [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral market sentiment [4] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - 2509 contract: The closing price was 66,420, down 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 478,114, down 285,914; the open interest was 340,618, down 1,528 [2] - 2511 contract: The closing price was 65,840, down 260 from the previous day; the trading volume was 52,548, down 34,089; the open interest was 108,026, down 606 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt volume was 10,655 hands, down 548 from the previous day [2] Basis - Spot - 2509: -1,470, up 290 from the previous day [2] - Spot - 2511: -890, up 310 from the previous day [2] - 2509 - 2511: 580, up 20 from the previous day [2] Raw Materials - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China): 685, up 4 from the previous day [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%): 1,450, unchanged from the previous day [2] Lithium Salts - Battery - grade lithium carbonate: 64,950, up 50 from the previous day [2] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 63,350, up 50 from the previous day [2] Other Products - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 31,345, up 15 from the previous day [2] - Ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type): 106,300, up 30 from the previous day [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,779 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. Domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Production was 1.268 million vehicles, up 26.4% year - on - year; sales were 1.329 million vehicles, up 26.7% year - on - year; exports were 205,000 vehicles, down 3.6% month - on - month and up 140% year - on - year [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,640 - 64,920 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and 80% higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 62,979 yuan/ton, a 0.07% daily increase, with a loss of 104 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, remaining the same daily, with a loss of 6,907 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a high profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Market indicators**: The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,750 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 530 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; other inventories are 41,430 tons, a 6.34% month - on - month increase; the total inventory is 140,793 tons, a 1.77% month - on - month increase, all higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.16% - 0.71%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production volumes. Demand - side data shows changes in indicators such as monthly production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate and other products [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.15% to 674 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows that the demand is high, and the balance is mostly negative [14][17][25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volumes also changed. The supply - demand balance shows that there are periods of surplus and shortage [28][33]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide all showed corresponding changes [36][39]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the cost - profit of lithium hydroxide processing, purification, and export, all showed different trends over time [42][45][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different degrees of changes, and most of them were higher than the historical average [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries all showed corresponding changes. The production and shipment volume of power batteries and energy - storage batteries showed different trends [53][56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors all showed corresponding changes [59][62]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials all showed corresponding changes [65][68]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium all showed corresponding changes [70][73]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles all showed corresponding changes [78][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 7, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat at 63,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 250 yuan/ton to 60,950 yuan/ton. However, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,481 tons to 15,555 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. But due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly output has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile from May to June were basically flat, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently, the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - In the current market, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipt level remains low, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short selling after the sentiment turns can still be monitored. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the prices may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Directory Research Views - Price changes: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: July supply is expected to increase, but weekly output has slowed. Imports are expected to change little. Demand has a slight month - on - month increase, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term strength due to various factors, but future hedging pressure exists, and prices may oscillate widely [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 380 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 1 US dollar/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium phosphate aluminum stone remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton, the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles and micro - powder) fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of various precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells mostly had small increases or remained unchanged [5] Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone over time [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [11][13][15] - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price differences [18][19][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [22][25][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [35][37] - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [39] Team Member Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, etc. Has over a decade of commodity research experience and the team has won many awards [43] - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44] - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44] Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone [47] - Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979, postal code: 200127 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unilateral and inter - period trends of lithium carbonate deviate from the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the position - holding risks. The market attributes the rebound of the absolute futures price to the change of the demand and production schedule expectation for July from negative to positive. After the strengthening of the unilateral futures price, the basis of trade and long - term contracts has strengthened significantly, while the inter - period spread has weakened significantly, which is inconsistent with the continuous large - scale cancellation of futures warehouse receipts. [3] - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go short on rallies after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to range from 55,000 to 63,000 yuan per ton. [3][4] - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage (except for the 8 - 9 contract, which maintains the positive arbitrage idea) after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear at the end of June. [5] - For hedging, it is recommended to conduct short - hedging, and the short - hedging ratio is suggested to be increased to 70%. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan per ton, up 3,420 yuan per ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 63,300 yuan per ton, up 4,400 yuan per ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 750 yuan per ton to 61,150 yuan per ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,670 yuan per ton to - 2,090 yuan per ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quote was + 400 yuan per ton, up 400 yuan per ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 60 yuan per ton, down 980 yuan per ton month - on - month. [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the operating rate improved. The price of spodumene concentrate rose by 9 US dollars per ton to 629 US dollars per ton this week. The production of salt lakes increased, and there will be new projects in Qinghai put into production in July. This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,767 tons, an increase of 305 tons from last week, with a growth rate of 1.65%. [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Driven by the better - than - expected performance of Xiaomi's large orders, the market expects the demand for power batteries to continue to be released. According to the statistics of consulting firms, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate battery cells in July increased by 6% month - on - month, and that of ternary battery cells increased by 4% month - on - month; the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month. The market expects that the demand in the off - season of lithium batteries in July may be better than previously expected. [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The total social inventory continued to increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 136,837 tons, an increase of 1,936 tons month - on - month. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 21,998 tons. [2] 3.3 Market Data - The report provides a series of charts and tables showing the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the lithium industry chain, including the spot and futures price differences of lithium carbonate, the inter - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures, the price trends of lithium ore, lithium salt products, and lithium batteries, etc. [8][10][11][13][15][17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18767吨 环比增长1 ， | 65% 高于历史同期平均水平 。 . , | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86570吨 | 环比增加0 54% 上周三元材料样本 ， . , | | | | | | 企业库存为15298吨 ， | 环比增加2 97% 。 . | | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为60506元/吨 | 日环比增长0 60% 生产所得为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [2][58]. - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, while the demand is revised downwards due to trade frictions. In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, with production expected to reach 1.783 million tons and demand at 1.484 million tons. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21% [2][11][55]. - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [2][15][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Lithium Carbonate Trend Review - In 2025 H1, the market price of lithium carbonate continued to decline compared to 2024, with the price ranging from 60,000 to 82,000 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in January, the price trended downwards throughout the rest of H1 [6]. - In January 2025, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the supply contraction was more prominent, coupled with reduced imports and rising costs, the price was firm. The import of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, domestic production decreased after the end of the increase in December, and the inventory was transferred to the downstream [8]. - From February to March 2025, with both supply and demand increasing, the price oscillated downwards. Domestic production and operating rates recovered after the Spring Festival, but imports decreased. The lithium - battery industry was gradually warming up, but there was a structural differentiation in cathode materials. Social inventory reached a new high, and cost support weakened [9]. - From April to June 2025, with strong supply and weak demand, the price declined rapidly. The US tariff policy hit long - term demand. Cathode material production profit was at the break - even point, and production enthusiasm weakened. The restart of an overseas mine created an expected supply increase, and lithium carbonate inventory remained stable, leading to a decline and then stabilization of lithium ore prices [10]. 3.2 Global Excess is Still Expanding, and the Domestic Circular Market is Self - Sufficient 3.2.1 Global Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Update - In 2025, the supply - demand surplus of lithium salts is 299,000 tons, significantly larger than the 103,000 tons in 2024, and it is expected to further expand to 550,000 tons in 2026. The supply growth rate of 34% far exceeds the demand growth rate of 21%, and the market may face long - term inventory accumulation pressure [11]. - The global lithium supply increment is concentrated in new projects. In 2025, the production is expected to reach 1.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,000 tons or 34%. Different resource types and regions contribute to the growth, with significant differences in growth momentum [12]. - Global lithium demand still maintains growth but at a slower pace. In 2025, the demand is expected to be 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 184,000 tons or 21%. The demand structure is still dominated by power batteries, but the growth rate of energy - storage battery demand has declined [13]. 3.2.2 Balance Sheet from the Perspective after Decoupling - China has achieved a breakthrough in the self - sufficiency of its own and equity resources, weakening the premium ability of overseas miners. In 2025, China's lithium supply has reached 760,000 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the global supply, and the domestic demand's import dependence has decreased from 43% to 25% [15]. - In the context of Sino - US trade friction and potential decoupling risks, the global lithium - battery industry chain is being re - structured. China's domestic lithium carbonate demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.008 million tons, accounting for 67.9% of the global demand, but the trade environment is reshaping the demand logic [17]. 3.2.3 High - Frequency Supply - Demand - The global lithium market is in an oversupply state in 2025. The surplus in H2 is slightly lower than that in H1. The surplus volume in Q3 is expected to further expand from July to October. In Q4, the market is different from previous years, with a weaker and more sluggish incremental performance from November to December. The end - of - year impulse demand has been advanced, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in Q4, with only a small gap in December [19]. 3.3 The Lithium - Battery Industry Chain is in a Stage of Passive Inventory Accumulation and Profit Negative Feedback - The lithium - battery industry is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback, with a volume - increasing and price - decreasing operation logic. In 2025, the demand for the lithium - salt industry is 1.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%, but the industry profit is being squeezed. The probability of entering the volume - increasing and price - decreasing mode in H2 is high [24]. - New energy vehicle inventories have reached a record high, and the profit is in a downward cycle. Price promotions have increased the inventory pressure on the supply chain, and car companies have compressed the payment period to suppliers to ease the capital pressure [27]. - Battery enterprise inventories continue to reach new highs, and the profit is below the break - even point, with a large inventory accumulation pressure [32]. - Cathode material enterprises have shifted from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction. The industry pattern is being reshaped, with "low - end overcapacity and high - end shortage", and some small and medium - sized enterprises have withdrawn from the market [37]. - Lithium salt enterprise inventories are at a peak level, and the profit of processing enterprises is approaching the full - cost line, but there is still profit at the cash - cost level [41]. - Lithium mine profit is among the highest in the industry, at 60 - 145%, and the inventory is rising from the bottom [47]. 3.4 Unordered Capacity Clearance Period, Distortion and Downward Shift of the Cost Curve - The lithium industry is in an unordered capacity clearance period. High - cost enterprises and new -投产 enterprises have complex reasons for not reducing production, and the industry's clearance path is expected to be long [49]. - The cost - curve model based on corporate financial costs to anchor the bottom of lithium prices has failed. The production cost disclosed by enterprises is continuously falling, and the cost curve is shifting downwards. Based on different models, the estimated integrated mine cost corresponding to downstream demand in 2025 is 53,796 yuan/ton and 44,748 yuan/ton respectively, and the supply at around 60,000 yuan/ton still shows an oversupply pattern [50]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The supply of lithium salts is growing against the trend, and the demand is revised downwards. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more severe. China has achieved a breakthrough in resource self - sufficiency. The demand has been overdrawn in advance, with continuous inventory accumulation from July to October and a weak peak season in Q4 [55][56]. - The lithium - battery industry chain is in a stage of passive inventory accumulation and profit negative feedback. The cost - curve model based on financial costs has failed, and the cost curve is shifting downwards [57]. - In the second half of 2025, it is expected that the lithium carbonate price will remain in a weak - oscillating pattern, with the price range projected to be between 50,000 yuan/ton and 65,000 yuan/ton [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market in the second quarter is expected to continue, with no significant growth in demand - side production during the off - season. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices. Also, be cautious of the contradiction between the high open interest of the 2507 contract and the approaching delivery month for new energy varieties [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth and an increasing probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline. Negative factors are the large future production capacity expectations of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt in a continuous accumulation trend, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to cost reduction of some high - cost technology routes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Prediction**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventories and at risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options (either over - the - counter or on - exchange options), and buy out - of - the - money put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans and worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the money call options (either on - exchange or over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the trading volume was 181,046 lots, down 560 lots or 0.31%; the open interest was 306,885 lots, down 450 lots or 0.15%. The closing price of the LC2511 contract was 59,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.13%; the trading volume was 17,850 lots, down 3,940 lots or 18.08%; the open interest was 67,483 lots, up 4,127 lots or 6.51% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - spread Changes**: The LC07 - 08 month - spread was 340 yuan/ton (previous value: 160 yuan/ton, last week: 440 yuan/ton); LC08 - 11 was 300 yuan/ton (previous value: 300 yuan/ton, last week: 360 yuan/ton); LC09 - 11 was 40 yuan/ton (previous value: 100 yuan/ton, last week: - 100 yuan/ton); LC11 - 12 was - 380 yuan/ton (previous value: - 300 yuan/ton, last week: - 240 yuan/ton) [15]. 3.3 Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores remained unchanged on the day. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li2O: 2 - 2.5% was 1,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium辉石 with Li2O: 6% (Brazil CIF) was 615 US dollars/ton [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 53,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.47%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 64,570 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.39% [22]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread was 4,120 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 5.72%; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices was - 934.79 yuan/ton, up 262.22 yuan or - 21.91% [26]. 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - **Downstream Product Quotes**: The prices of some downstream products remained stable, while others declined slightly. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 30,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 (consumer - type) ternary material was 105,220 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 622 (consumer - type) ternary material was 111,120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan or 0.08%; the price of 811 (power - type) ternary material was 143,120 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.13% [36][37]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased from 31,713 to 29,967, a decrease of 1,746. Some warehouses such as Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai and Cosco Shipping Nanchang saw significant decreases in warehouse receipts [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of weak supply and light demand, with industrial inventories accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to the trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 59,880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,092 hands, up 1,037 hands; the position of the main contract is 306,885 hands, down 450 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 400 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,713 hands/ton, down 330 hands [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 697 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,595 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,576 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise start - up rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,700 yuan/ton, down 0.04; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 215,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 21.27%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 22.92%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.1.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 106,820 contracts, up 4,804 contracts; the total put position is 37,986 contracts, up 1,633 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 35.56%, down 0.0738 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money IV is down 0.0079 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The added value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May [2]. - Yahua Group plans to rename its wholly - owned subsidiary Sichuan Yahua Lithium Industry Technology Co., Ltd. to "Yahua Lithium Industry Group" and transfer the equity of five subsidiaries related to lithium business to it for free [2]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy's sales volume of new energy materials from January to May 2025 was about 47,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20.95%. Among them, the sales volume of lithium cobaltate was about 22,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 53%, and the sales volume of ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) was 23,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2% [2]. - In May, US retail sales recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year. After the April data was revised to a 0.1% decline, the unadjusted retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the retail sales excluding automobiles decreased by 0.3% [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The production willingness of some smelters has recovered due to the previous rebound in futures prices. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume from Chile has decreased significantly, and the domestic supply is expected to be high in the short term and then gradually decline [2]. - **Demand**: Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Although the lithium price has weakened recently, enterprises have no intention to further stock up, and the spot market transactions are still cautious and cold [2]. - **Option Market**: The put - call ratio of the position is 35.56%, down 0.0738% month - on - month. The call position in the option market dominates, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2].