Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a "shutdown" for four weeks, leading to significant disruptions in various sectors [1] - The shortage of air traffic controllers has worsened due to the shutdown, impacting flight operations across the country [1] - On the 27th, nearly 7,000 flights were delayed nationwide, highlighting the operational challenges faced by the aviation industry [1] - Ongoing political stalemate between the Republican and Democratic parties continues to hinder the resolution of the shutdown, with both sides engaging in mutual blame [1]

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间27日，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第27天，这场史上第二长的"停 摆"正持续冲击美国社会的方方面面，在华盛顿，由于无法领到工资，不少联邦雇员前往慈善组织排队 领取救济食品。 27日在华盛顿街头，慈善组织"世界中央厨房"向因政府停摆而被迫无薪休假的联邦雇员分发食物，数十 名联邦雇员前来排队领取蔬菜、水果、肉类等救济食品和饮用水，部分人坦言现在的生活十分艰难。 美国国防部雇员：（政府"停摆"的影响）变得真实了。我没有领到薪水，所以只能省着点花钱。但我们 这样撑不了很久，因为你有孩子要上幼儿园，有贷款需要还，要知道银行不会等着你（有了钱再还）。 美国农业部此前宣布暂停其"补充营养援助计划"，也就是俗称的食品券项目，11月1日将停止发放食品 救济，目前这一项目覆盖约4200万人，约占美国总人口八分之一，其中多数为低收入群体和残障人士。 食品券项目暂停后，他们的生活将难以为继。 美国民众 基纳德：一旦没了这项救济，我和女儿如果想获得健康食品就会成问题，而且我还必须在食 品、医保和住房之间艰难取舍。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of optimistic trade sentiments and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with recent data indicating a significant drop from record highs [1][3][4]. Market Analysis - As of October 27, gold is priced at $4,078.36 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.56% from previous levels, with a year-to-date increase of 55% largely driven by trade tensions [1]. - The recent drop in gold prices, over 6% from last week's record high of $4,381.21, indicates market sensitivity to trade negotiations and potential tariff changes [1][4]. - The upcoming deadline for additional tariffs on Chinese imports adds uncertainty, which could reignite gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3.0%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing market speculation for a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The likelihood of a rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00% is nearly 100%, with high probabilities for further cuts in December and January [3]. Technical Analysis - Recent price movements show gold testing support levels around $4,040, with potential resistance at $4,140-$4,165 [5][6]. - The current technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the price below key moving averages, indicating a need for careful monitoring of support levels [5][6]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to watch key support levels at $4,040 and $4,000, with potential strategies to short if these levels are breached [8]. - The market remains volatile, and traders should be prepared to adjust strategies based on real-time developments and price movements [8].

美国农业部称，资金已经枯竭。 目前，11月1日将不会发放任何福利。 据悉，美国联邦政府的"补充营养援助计划"覆盖约4200万人， 主要受益人群为低收入群体， 残疾人和老人等 ，这些人群可使用政府补贴的食品券在指定商店购买食物。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨陈思颖 见习编辑张嘉钰 2架美军机在南海相继坠毁 阿里巴巴前CEO张勇，5354万港元买下香港半山豪宅 SFC 21君荐读 2 智能 悦 读 · 权 威 . ry S 扫码点击下载 当地时间10月25日，据央视新闻援引美国农业部网站通知称， 美国联邦政府的"补充营养援助 计划"将于11月1日停止。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]

白宫周五在社交媒体平台X上发文称，由于国会未能通过临时拨款法案，资金短缺导致调查人员无法外出采集数据，从而"使我们失去了关键 数据"，"其经济后果可能是毁灭性的"。 白宫指出，这"将是历史上首次"无法公布相关信息。 美东时间周五（10月24日），白宫宣布，由于美国政府关门，下个月可能不会公布通胀数据。 分析人士指出，美国政府"停摆"持续的核心原因在于两党就医保福利支出问题僵持不下，临时拨款法案始终无法通过。 截至周五，共和党人与民主党人在临时拨款立法上的僵局已进入第24天。目前约有70万名联邦雇员被迫休假，另有近70万人无薪工作。 虽然政府仍在停摆中，但美国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告于周五公布，以便社会保障局能据此计算数百万退休人员及其他福利领取者的 2026年生活成本调整方案。这份报告原定于10月15日发布。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在另一条X帖子中表示："民主党选择让政府继续关门，可能导致10月通胀报告无法发布，这将使企业、市场、 家庭以及美联储陷入混乱。" 美国联邦政府关门已进入第四周，这是美国历史上持续事件第二长的政府"停摆"事件。 自10月1日政府停摆以来，参议院民主党人多次阻止临时拨款法案 ...

当地时间10月24日，随着美国政府停摆进入第24天，超过50万名联邦雇员本周未能如期领取全额薪水。 参议院目前休会，停摆预计将持续至下周一。 另据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，因政府"停摆"导致薪资中断，大批联邦雇员当天在华盛顿东南部 的首都地区食品银行（Capital Area Food Bank）排队领取餐食和生活用品。 一名受访者称："过去我是发放补助的人，如今却要排队领援助。"另一名雇员表示，尽管停薪，却因收 入标准不符而无法领取粮食券，称"这令人感到悲哀——为国家工作多年，到需要帮助时却得不到支 持。" 由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 （央视新闻） 据组织者威尔·斯特罗曼介绍，食品银行当天向约250名联邦雇员提供援助，并计划每周五持续发放物资 直至停摆结束。多名受访雇员表示，账单、房贷与家庭开支给他们带来巨大压力，希望国会议员也暂停 领取薪水。 ...

由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 当地时间10月24日，随着美国政府停摆进入第24天，超过50万名联邦雇员本周未能如期领取全额薪水。 参议院目前休会，停摆预计将持续至下周一。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

摩根大通交易部门认为，尽管经济学家预计周五发布的消费者物价指数（CPI）将显示通胀居高不下，但股票交易员很可能对此不以为意——因为当前市场 叙事被"美联储下周有望降息"的乐观情绪主导。 以安德鲁·泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的团队指出，CPI发布当天股市波动"将低于往常"，原因是投资者对美联储10月29日再次降息的预期，可能抵消任何与 通胀相关的焦虑情绪。他们判断，即便经济学家普遍预计CPI读数将高于预期，但标普500指数在数据发布后上涨的概率仍约为65%。 "我们认同市场观点，认为只有出现极端尾部风险，才可能让美联储搁置降息计划。"摩根大通全球市场情报主管泰勒周三在给客户的报告中写道。 彭博社调查显示，经济学家预计9月核心CPI（剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分）环比上涨0.3%，同比涨幅将维持在3.1%——与前一个月持平，且远高于美 联储2%的通胀目标。 周五发布的CPI数据，是10月1日政府停摆以来首份重要经济报告，对投资者而言分量极重。该数据将成为美联储利率会议前少数能反映经济状况的明确信 号之一，且可能为今年剩余时间的市场走势定调。 美国劳工统计局已召回少量员工编制这份报告，以便社会保障局能据此 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].