Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] 2) Core View of the Report - After the US announced that the August CPI annual rate of 2.9% and the core CPI annual rate of 3.1% were in line with market expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level in 4 years, far higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value, further verifying the weak employment situation. The market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Precious metals may remain strong before this month's meeting, and long positions should be held, but there is a risk of increased volatility after continuous rises [1] 3) Other Key Points - The European Central Bank announced that the eurozone's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate will remain unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively. The inflation rate has reached the 2% medium - term target, and price pressures in the eurozone continue to ease. The eurozone economy shows resilience in a complex global environment, but external uncertainties, especially trade disputes, are significant [2] - On September 11 local time, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Israel's attack on Qatar on the 9th. Qatar will not tolerate any infringement of its sovereignty and national security, and reserves the right to respond in accordance with international law. Qatar prioritizes mediating a cease - fire between Palestine and Israel while retaining the right to retaliate [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93.9%, and the probability of cutting by 50 basis points is 6.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by October is 7.6%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6% [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the decline [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion, a decrease of 456.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,300 stocks in the market saw declines, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Chip stocks showed resilience with notable gains, particularly with Zhichun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The film and television sector was active, with Jinyi Film and Television also reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, brokerage stocks faced downward pressure, with Guosheng Jin控 dropping over 5% [1] - The commercial aerospace sector collectively weakened, with multiple stocks like Aileda declining over 5% [1] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.63%, while the ChiNext Index remained unchanged [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with a total market turnover exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan, while sectors such as CPO, semiconductors, and copper cable high-speed connections saw significant declines [1] - The banking, precious metals, PEEK materials, electricity, and industrial mother machine sectors showed gains [1] - The CSI A500 index fell by 1.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.7%, the ChiNext index dropped by 2.9%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 2.1% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index, which tracks 300 large and liquid stocks, recorded a decline of 0.7% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 times and a valuation percentile of 64.4% since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 index, covering 500 securities from various industries, fell by 1.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times and a valuation percentile of 71.4% since its inception in 2004 [2] - The ChiNext index, consisting of 100 large and liquid stocks, saw a decline of 2.9% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 41.9 times and a valuation percentile of 37.5% since its inception in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 index, which includes 50 large and liquid stocks, decreased by 2.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 186.8 times and a valuation percentile of 99.9% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking 50 large and active stocks listed in Hong Kong, fell by 0.2% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 times and a valuation percentile of 63.2% since its inception in 2002 [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% at 3844.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.21% at 12545.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.9% at 2870.72 points [2][3] - Nearly 4500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell, while only 858 stocks saw an increase [2] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics, computing power, military industry, and information technology sectors led the declines, while the precious metals sector continued to rise [2] - Precious metals increased by 2.05%, with banking and electric power stocks also showing positive performance [4] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan for the 21st consecutive trading day [8] Notable Stocks - Guizhou Moutai's stock price rose over 2%, reaching 1500 yuan per share, marking a new high since May [12] - The innovative drug concept stocks saw significant gains, with companies like BeiGene and Amgen rising over 10% [12] International Market Influence - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1%, with Huahong Semiconductor leading the decline among component stocks [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the domestic financial market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875.53, reflecting a 0.46% increase, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.05% to 12828.95 [4] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August stands at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index is at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points [6] - The report identifies key industry developments, including advancements in consumer-grade 3D printing technology and the operational launch of China's largest molten salt thermal storage project [8] Industry Developments - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expanding, with companies like Zhongzhou Special Materials and Jinchengzi leading the way [8] - A significant breakthrough in technology has been achieved with the launch of the largest molten salt thermal storage project in China, involving companies such as Dongfang Electric Heating and Aerospace Chenguang [8] - The satellite communication industry is experiencing a policy-driven commercialization opportunity, with key players including China Satellite Communications and Heertai [8] Company Focus - Jianghe Group reported a non-recurring net profit of 334 million yuan for H1, marking a 21.4% increase, with overseas orders rising by 61% to 5.2 billion yuan, primarily from projects in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [10] - Magpow Technology is actively participating in the innovative design and collaborative construction of data center hardware systems based on NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture [10] - Jiyuan Technology has invested 500 million yuan to acquire a stake in Wuhan Endatong Technology, resulting in a 13.59% ownership [10] Market Review and Outlook - On September 1, the total trading volume in the two markets reached 27.5 billion yuan, with 3059 stocks rising and 1964 falling, indicating a net outflow of 766.29 billion yuan [12] - The market showed a slight upward trend, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, suggesting a rotation of funds towards mid and small-cap stocks [12] - Key sectors attracting capital inflow include innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals, while sectors like insurance, securities, and banking faced declines [12] - The report anticipates further upward movement in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a potential breakthrough above the 3920-point resistance level [13]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3429.15, with a change of 21.50 [1] - London Silver latest price is 38.80, with a change of -0.14 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1345.00, with a change of 6.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1102.00, with a change of 12.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 64.01, with a change of -0.59 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9883.50, with a change of 85.50 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.85, with a change of -0.02 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 147.05, with a change of 0.11 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.01 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 16118.83, with a change of 32.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1196.00, with a change of 17.48 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 977.68, with a change of 9.74 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 15310.00, with a change of -22.59 [1] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided, latest not provided [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, change is 1.00 [1] Group 3: Data Source - The above chart data sources are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [6]

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3879.05 points during the session, closing at 3862.65 points, up 0.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% and 0.55%, respectively [1] Gold Market - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with international gold prices reaching new highs; COMEX gold futures peaked at $3552 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% [4][5] - London spot gold prices also rose, reaching $3486.16 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $3500 from April 22 [5] - Domestic gold futures in China saw a rise of over 2%, hitting a new high of 802 yuan per gram [5] - Major stocks in the gold sector, such as Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology, saw substantial increases, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit [5][6] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector exhibited mixed performance; stocks like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip reached daily limits, while Cambrian Technology experienced a decline of nearly 3% [3][9] - Cambrian Technology's stock fluctuated significantly, dropping over 8% at one point but stabilizing to a decrease of 2.98% by midday [11] - Reports indicated that Alibaba's procurement rumors regarding Cambrian Technology were unfounded, but the company continues to advance its AI chip development [13] Alibaba's Market Activity - Alibaba's stock surged over 16% in Hong Kong, with a market capitalization increase of approximately 400 billion HKD, reaching a total market value of 2.59 trillion HKD [14] - The company reported a revenue of 247.65 billion yuan for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net profit of 43.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76% [16] - Alibaba's investment in AI and cloud infrastructure reached 38.6 billion yuan, a 220% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its AI capabilities [16] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector saw significant activity, with stocks like MicroPort Medical rising over 14% and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 109% [17] - The approval of 43 innovative drugs in the first half of the year, a 59% increase year-on-year, highlights the growing focus on drug development in China [17] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 101%, reflecting strong investor interest in the pharmaceutical sector [17]

Market Overview - On September 1, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.55% [1][2] - The total market turnover for the morning session was 1.85 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day, with over 3,100 stocks rising [2] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks related to gold, jewelry, cobalt, and minor metals becoming active [7] - Notable stocks such as Haixing Co., Jintong Co., and Shengda Resources reached their daily limit up, while Hunan Gold and Luoyang Molybdenum also saw increases [7] - The recent rise in international gold prices was attributed to the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which enhanced the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks and trade tensions [8][9] Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, particularly innovative drugs and CROs, showed strong performance, with stocks like Maiwei Biotech hitting the daily limit up [11][12] - Maiwei Biotech announced the approval of its two biosimilar products in Pakistan, marking a significant milestone for the company [16] - The recent adjustments to the national medical insurance catalog are expected to increase the value of innovative drugs, with a focus on new drugs and CAR-T products [17] Notable Stock Performances - In the precious metals sector, stocks such as Haixing Co. and Jintong Co. saw increases of around 10% [8] - In the innovative pharmaceuticals sector, Maiwei Biotech's stock rose by 20% to 57.60 yuan, with a trading volume of 24.39 million shares [13][14]