金十数据7月30日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交平台表示，记住，虽然印度是我们的朋友，但多年来我们 与他们的贸易往来相对较少，因为他们的关税太高，是世界上最高的，而且他们的非货币贸易壁垒是所 有国家中最令人讨厌的。此外，他们一直从俄罗斯购买绝大多数军事装备，并且是俄罗斯最大的能源买 家。在每个人都希望俄罗斯停止在乌克兰的军事行动的时候，印度这一切表现都不好！因此，从8月1日 开始，印度将支付25%的关税，再加上对上述行为的罚款。 特朗普：印度将支付25%的关税及罚款 ...

据报道，特朗普表示，印度可能会面临20%至25%的关税税率，同时他表示，最后期限8月1日之前两国 仍正在谈判一项贸易协议，因此最终的关税税率尚未确定。(第一财经) ...

美国总统特朗普7月29日在搭乘总统专机"空军一号"从英国返程途中对媒体记者表示，美国可能对印度 输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未就此作出最终决定。 特朗普说，虽然印度是一个好朋友，但印度对从美国进口产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对美国 产品征收的关税。（新华财经） ...

在刚刚过去的周日，美国和其最大的贸易伙伴欧盟达成了贸易协议。这份协议在欧盟内部引发了巨大的 争议，一些欧盟国家指责该协议"不公"，并将给欧洲经济带来严重的损害。 对此，专家表示，尽管该协议对欧盟来说或许是个坏消息，但却会给英国经济带来意想不到的提振。 根据美欧贸易协议，美国将对欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税税率，而根据美英此前达成的协议，英国将 被征收10%的关税。 "理论上，英国将从中受益，"英国投行Investec的首席经济学家Philip Shaw表示。 "欧盟面临的15%的新关税意味着英国对美国的出口商品将变得相对便宜，这可能会促进英国与美国的 贸易，美国企业将倾向于从英国而不是欧盟购买商品，"他解释道。 全球知名律师事务所Dentons的国际贸易律师Beth McCall表示，美欧贸易协议也削弱了对英国潜在的利 好。 她表示，若美国（按照此前的威胁）对欧盟商品征收30%的关税，那么英国商品将更具吸引力。而现 在，关税的预期差异仅为5%。 他还指出："英国面临的较低关税为欧盟公司将部分制造基地转移到英国或扩建现有的英国设施提供了 巨大激励。" Altmann进一步解释称，特别是那些利润率较低的欧盟制造商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily attributed to progress in trade relations, with agreements reached between the US and major economies, reducing the likelihood of escalating trade conflicts [3][4]. Trade Relations - The US has successfully negotiated trade agreements with the UK, Japan, and the EU before the August 1 deadline, alleviating concerns about the US economic outlook and debt issues [3]. - Ongoing negotiations between the US and China aim to extend the trade truce by three months, with market focus on the potential outcomes of the leaders' meeting and the duration of the tariff suspension [3]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to take action in its upcoming meeting, as the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the third quarter [4]. - Rising import costs due to tariffs are increasing production costs for businesses, heightening the risk of economic slowdown, which may eventually lead to higher inflation for consumers and the labor market [4]. - Fed Chair Powell has indicated that if inflation proves to be temporary, the FOMC may restart the rate-cutting cycle, suggesting a shift in focus towards labor market performance rather than inflation outlook [4]. Employment Data - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment figures [4]. - A slowdown in the labor market could significantly raise expectations for a rate cut in September, potentially putting more pressure on the dollar [4]. Long-term Outlook - In the medium term, the US dollar assets face uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and fiscal deficits [5]. - The US's large-scale fiscal measures have not effectively addressed its debt issues, leading to a decline in confidence in dollar assets and prompting investors to diversify into other currencies [5].

7月29日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价基本没有变化，交易商等待美国与智利和中国的贸易 会谈结果，以获得有关美国计划从周五开始对铜征收50%进口关税的更多信息。 伦敦时间7月29日17:00(北京时间7月30日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨5美元，或0.05%，收报每吨 9,798.0美元，持于略高于21天移动均线的水平。 最活跃COMEX期铜合约较LME指标期铜的升水从上周的30%降至26%，此前全球主要铜供应国智利表 示将在本周华盛顿举行的更广泛的贸易对话中讨论美国铜关税。 美国商务部长卢特尼克周二表示，尽管单独会谈仍在继续，但特朗普总统本周仍将就贸易协议做出决 定，这又带来了一层不确定性。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）29日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，小幅上调今明两年世界经济增长 预期。报告还提及，中国实际GDP年化增长率达到6%，超出预期。相较于4月份的预测，IMF将中国 2025年经济增速上调了0.8个百分点至4.8%。中国是全球最大的金属消费国。 据新华社报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美联储将于今日晚些时候开始为期两天的政策会议。尽管美联储预计将在周三维持利率不变，但交易员 将密切分析政策制定者的言论，以判断未来行动的时机。 与此同时，印度准备迎接美国对部分出口产品加征关税，税率可能高达25%，因为它选择在华盛顿设定 的最后期限前坚持做出新的贸易让步。 其他方面，美国国债在发行了440亿美元的七年期国债后，继续走高。在债务发行计划公布前，长期债 券领涨，这可能为美国计划如何控制这些期限债券的收益率提供线索。美元表现优于大多数发达国家货 币。 道指主要成分股联合健康集团和波音的季度业绩未能给投资者留下深刻印象。联合包裹服务公司公布第 二季度利润低于预期，成为特朗普总统全面征收关税的最新受害者。 科技巨头Meta、微软、亚马逊和苹果将于本周晚些时候公布财报，这可能会在未来几天引领华尔街的 走势。 经济消息方面，7月份消费者信心指数升至97.2，高于预期。6月份，美国职位空缺和招聘人数有所下 降，这表明劳动力市场活动进一步放缓。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years to 3.0% and 3.1%, reflecting a slight increase from previous predictions, but still lower than last year's growth of 3.3% [1] - The IMF has adjusted China's growth forecast for 2025 upward by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of 2025 and lower-than-expected tariffs [1] - The report indicates that despite a decline in exports to the U.S., China's strong sales to other countries have offset this decline, supported by fiscal measures contributing to consumption [1] Group 2 - The IMF projects U.S. economic growth at 1.9% and 2% for the next two years, while the Eurozone's growth forecasts have been raised to 1% and 1.2% [2] - The report highlights that the trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, which includes a 15% tariff on nearly all European imports, is expected to negatively impact both economies [2] Group 3 - The IMF warns that U.S. inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target in 2026 due to tariff impacts, indicating significant trade-related distortions affecting global economic resilience [3] - The report emphasizes the need for countries to engage in pragmatic cooperation to reduce policy-induced uncertainties and to focus trade negotiations on lowering barriers rather than increasing them against third parties [3] - The IMF calls for clear and consistent communication from central banks in the current uncertain environment, highlighting the importance of central bank independence in both legal and operational aspects [3]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

欧盟的贸易谈判代表或许正为与特朗普政府达成协议而弹冠相庆。然而，如果将此视为胜利，试问怎样 的结果才算失败? 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩上周日共同宣布的这项协议，确实让金融市场 和欧洲商界领袖如释重负。欧盟主要出口商现在可以按照15%的对美出口关税来制定投资与商业计划 ——这远低于特朗普此前威胁的30%惩罚性关税(更早时甚至扬言征收50%)。尤为关键的是，该税率适 用于欧洲汽车(与日本汽车共同免于25%的汽车进口税)、医药及半导体产品(这些原本可能面临行业性惩 罚关税)。协议还使欧盟得以暂缓实施已准备好的报复性关税措施，至少消除了部分不确定性。 但这种模糊性也意味着，上周日的声明绝非最终结果。即便按较低税率执行，关税仍将重创美国经济： 财政部长贝森特或可炫耀新增税收，但进口萎缩必将随之而来——二者不可得兼。如果欧盟企业真的大 举投资美国，由此产生的资本流动将不利于贸易平衡。这一切都意味着，欧盟对美贸易顺差(去年商品 顺差达1980亿欧元，部分被1090亿欧元的服务逆差抵消)在未来几年可能不会显著缩减。 而当这位冲动且善变的总统再也无法否认关税的破坏性影响时，必将再度归咎贸易伙伴。令人 ...