北京时间周五晚21:30，美国劳工统计局交出了一份惨淡的报告。 其中， 餐饮服务及饮酒场所、医疗保健与社会援助行业继续增加，零售业就业减少。 12月私营非农就业全体员工平均时薪上升0.12美元，增长0.3%，至37.02美元；过去12个月上涨3.8%。 美国12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于市场预期中值6万人，前值由6.4万人修正为5.6万人； 美国12月失业率录得4.4%，略低于市场预期的4.5%，前值由4.60%修正为4.5%。 数据公布后，美国股指期货延续涨势，道琼斯指数期货涨0.31%，标普500指数期货涨0.34%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.43%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500指数主连 (2603) | mount | 6985.50 | +23.50 | +0.34% | | ESmain | | | | | | 道琼斯指数主连 (2603) | | 49647 | +154 | +0.31% | | YMmain | ringen | | | | | 纳斯达克100指数主连 (260 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December employment report indicates a challenging outlook for 2025, with job security appearing precarious, potentially reigniting recession discussions on Wall Street [1] Group 1: Employment Market Insights - The labor market data is described as weak, which may lead to renewed recession concerns among investors [1] - The uncertainty surrounding employment security is highlighted as a significant factor affecting market sentiment [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The weak employment data provides a clear basis for the Federal Reserve to consider another interest rate cut in their upcoming meeting [1] - The immediate market reaction saw stock prices rise, as traders view the Fed's potential decision as a catalyst for further market gains [1]

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, which is below the expected 73,000 according to a Dow Jones survey [3][7] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is lower than the anticipated 4.5% [3][7] - The December non-farm payroll report indicates a slight slowdown in the labor market but remains stable, potentially guiding the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts later this year [3][7] Trade Policy and Legal Developments - Investors are awaiting a potential ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump, which could impact trade policy and national fiscal conditions [3][7] - The ruling may disrupt ongoing negotiations with partner countries and could lead to a "refund dispute" over approximately $150 billion in tariffs already paid by importers if the decision is unfavorable to Trump [3][7] - Wells Fargo's Chief Equity Strategist Ohyung Kwon noted that companies have adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding the tariff legality, which may change post-ruling, potentially restarting the manufacturing cycle as companies begin to replenish inventories [3][7] Company Updates - Generac's stock rose over 3% after Baird upgraded its rating to "outperform," citing unique catalysts including opportunities from commercial and industrial diesel generators [4][8] - This upgrade marks the second rating increase for Generac within two days, following a "buy" rating from Citigroup [4][8] - The overall U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Composite Index declining by 0.4% due to drops in tech stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom, while the Dow Jones increased by approximately 270 points, or 0.6% [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term performance of the US dollar is highly dependent on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, while the medium to long-term outlook indicates a clear weakening trend for the dollar due to multiple fundamental factors [1][2]. Short-term Summary - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 has slightly decreased from 41.6% to about 40% as of January 8, driven by resilient economic indicators [1]. - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating ongoing economic vitality [1]. - Economists predict a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for December, with the unemployment rate potentially dropping to 4.5% and average hourly earnings rising by 3.6% year-on-year [1]. - Stronger-than-expected data could diminish rate cut bets and strengthen the dollar, particularly against the yen, while weak labor market data could increase easing expectations and suppress dollar demand [1]. Medium to Long-term Summary - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is a core driver of the dollar's weakening trend, with expectations of a 150 basis point cut in 2026 to support the labor market [2]. - Fitch predicts two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.25% [2]. - The anticipated change in Fed leadership in 2026 is expected to lead to a more dovish monetary policy, further increasing downward pressure on the dollar [2]. - Differentiated global central bank policies are also suppressing the dollar's performance, with the Bank of Japan moving towards rate hikes, contrasting with the Fed's easing path [2]. Structural Challenges - The dollar index experienced a cumulative decline of 9.41% in 2025, marking the deepest annual drop since 2017, as global investor sentiment towards dollar assets shifts [3]. - Ongoing issues with the US fiscal and current account deficits are further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [3]. - Analysts predict a "strong first, weak second" phase for the dollar in 2026, with the index expected to range between 93 and 102 [3]. - The dollar may maintain some resilience in the first half of the year due to fiscal impulses and AI capital inflows, but is expected to enter a clear downtrend in the second half as dovish Fed signals emerge and fiscal effects wane [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment growth in December fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, leading to the weakest annual employment growth since the pandemic began [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that October's non-farm employment was revised from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 76,000 jobs for November and December combined [3]. - For the entire year, U.S. non-farm employment increased by 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since the sharp decline of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 due to the pandemic [3]. - The three-month moving average of employment data has entered negative territory, indicating a significant decline in labor market momentum [1][4]. Unemployment Rate Insights - Despite the disappointing employment data, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, which was better than the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [9]. - The decline in the unemployment rate is partly attributed to a shrinking labor force participation rate, suggesting that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market entirely [3]. Sector-Specific Employment Trends - Private sector employment growth remains weak, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline. The healthcare sector added 21,000 jobs, although this is below the average monthly increase of 34,000 jobs seen last year [5]. - Analysts predict that in 2025, private sector employers will add an average of 61,000 jobs per month, the weakest level of growth since 2003 without an economic recession [5]. Wage Growth Analysis - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with the previous value revised to 0.2%. Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.8%, outpacing inflation by approximately 1 percentage point [7]. Interest Rate Expectations - The report has dispelled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, as the decline in the unemployment rate is seen as a key factor supporting the Fed's patience [8]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in January is currently viewed as zero, despite the weak employment data and downward revisions [2][8].

Group 1 - The National Market Supervision Administration announced an investigation into the competitive conditions of the food delivery platform service industry due to issues like excessive subsidies and price wars, which have intensified "involution" competition and negatively impacted the real economy [3] - Meituan expressed strong support for the investigation and stated it would cooperate fully, aiming to work with other platforms to ensure fair market competition [3] - The investigation will involve on-site verification, interviews, and surveys to gather opinions from various stakeholders, including platform operators, new employment groups, and consumers [3] Group 2 - Qu Guangji has been appointed as the General Manager of China National Aviation Holding Company, replacing Wang Mingyuan [5] - The appointment was announced during an expanded leadership meeting of the company, following the directives from the Central Organization Department [5] Group 3 - Cainiao has launched a new cross-border logistics service from the U.S. to Mexico, establishing a logistics network that covers 99% of Mexico and offers competitive pricing at 60% of the industry average [9][10] - This service aims to break down high-cost barriers for cross-border logistics, providing a cost-effective logistics fulfillment experience for local e-commerce platforms and cross-border sellers [9] Group 4 - The A-share market reached a historic milestone as the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed the 4100-point mark for the first time in ten years, achieving a rare 16 consecutive days of gains, the longest streak since 1993 [15] - The market's trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of 3.12 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest trading record in A-share history [15]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. Treasury bonds indicates that traders have largely erased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month, following a better-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate, which offset weak overall job growth [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The unemployment rate's decline exceeded expectations, leading to a drop in government bond prices and an increase in yields by up to 3 basis points [1] - The employment data released is considered the first "clean" reading reflecting macroeconomic employment trends, as previous labor reports were delayed due to a government shutdown [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be more focused on the unemployment rate rather than the overall data noise, which is seen as slightly bearish for U.S. interest rates [1] - Future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to depend on the performance of the labor market in the coming months, with predictions of two rate cuts in 2026, the first of which is anticipated mid-year [1] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Some Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about inflation being above target, which is viewed as a limitation on further easing measures [1]

交易员认为美联储1月份降息的可能性几乎为零。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in December remained stable at 4.4%, alleviating concerns raised by the spike to 4.6% in November, indicating a relatively mild labor market condition compared to historical standards, though higher than the post-pandemic hiring peak [1] Group 1 - The December unemployment rate of 4.4% is consistent with the level seen in September, suggesting stability in the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment rate to 4.6% in November raised concerns, but the December data has mitigated those worries [1] - The current unemployment rate is still above the low points reached during the post-pandemic hiring surge, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The limited number of initial unemployment claims suggests that there is no immediate urgency for the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts [1] - Following three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve projected for the end of 2025, the recent data may reduce the likelihood of additional cuts in the near term [1] - The combination of a stable unemployment rate and limited jobless claims may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Industry - The industry under research is agriculture products [1] Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, the domestic market is expected to face a potential supply shortage in Q1 2026, with the 03 contract stronger than the 05 contract. The price of soymeal will be affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean imports and crushing [9][10] - For eggs, the spot price is expected to enter a seasonal peak, with the 02 and 03 contracts likely to strengthen in basis. The far - month contracts may have potential due to the expected inflection point in inventory, and attention should be paid to the replenishment situation [48] - For sugar, the raw sugar index is expected to maintain a sideways shock, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a shock market. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average resistance level [71][72] - For cotton, the short - term cotton price faces callback pressure at the integer - level resistance, and the medium - to - long - term trend of going long at low levels remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by downstream enterprises [92] Breakdown by Directory Soymeal Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soymeal rose as of January 9, with Dalian at 3240 yuan/ton (+80), Rizhao at 3160 yuan/ton (+80), Zhangjiagang at 3150 yuan/ton (+50), and Dongguan at 3140 yuan/ton (+60) [8] - The US soybean futures rebounded after a previous decline, mainly due to the digestion of the bearish factors of Brazilian bumper harvest and weak US soybean exports. The domestic soymeal followed the external market and was relatively strong, especially the 03 contract. The 05 contract's rebound space is limited [9][10] Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA December report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area decreased, but the yield per unit increased. The South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's production estimated to reach 1.75 billion tons and Argentina's at 48.5 million tons. The planting progress in Brazil is almost complete, and the growth situation is good. Argentina's planting rate is 88.3% as of January 7 [11][12][13] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of January 1, the weekly shipment volume, net sales volume, and cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. The US and China reached a trade agreement, but the commercial procurement is restricted by the 13% tariff [19] - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of January 8, the crushing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate decreased, and the import volume and inventory situation showed seasonal changes [27][28][30] - **Soymeal Transaction and Inventory**: As of January 2, the domestic main oil mills' soymeal inventory increased. The trading volume was affected by factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the suspension of imported soybean auctions [34][37] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of January 9, the 05 contract basis of soymeal was about 438.86, and the 3 - 5 spread was 309. The basis is expected to be strong in shock, and the 3 - 5 spread may continue to be strong [40] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 8, the number of domestic soymeal registered warehouse receipts was 25,410, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [45] Eggs Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs rose this week, and the futures near - month contracts were slightly stronger, while the far - month contracts declined. The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to strengthen in basis, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' potential due to inventory changes [48] Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was at a high level in the same period of history, with a slight decline. The replenishment momentum was weak, and the proportion of different - age - group laying hens changed [49][50][53] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: As of January 8, the egg spot price rose, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a very low level [58] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume was relatively high but slightly declined, the culling age was stable, and the culled - hen price was at a low level in the same period of history [59] - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: As of January 8, the egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [65] Sugar - The raw sugar index slightly rebounded, and the Zhengzhou sugar index strengthened in shock. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The production in Brazil and India will affect the sugar price [71][72][74] Cotton Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The external cotton market slightly recovered, and the Zhengzhou cotton reached the resistance level and then fell back. The domestic spot market trading was slightly weak, and the pure - cotton yarn market maintained rigid demand. The overseas market was affected by tariffs, and the domestic market should pay attention to the planting area change and the pre - Spring Festival restocking [90][91][92] Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA December report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with the opening inventory increasing, production and trade volume decreasing, and the closing inventory increasing [93] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of November 30, the net signing and shipment volume of US cotton showed different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volume also changed compared with the previous year [100] - **Textile Enterprises**: As of December 26, the cotton and yarn inventories of textile enterprises changed, and the load indexes of yarn and grey - cloth production decreased [102] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of January 8, the spot basis of cotton increased, and the 1 - 5 spread also increased [115] - **CFTC Position and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 30, the non - commercial net position of US cotton increased, and as of January 8, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [119]