Core Viewpoint - The Straits Times Index in Singapore increased by 22.67% for the entire year of 2025, reaching a new historical high last week, indicating strong market performance despite potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical risks and the release of macroeconomic data from the United States [1][1]. Group 1 - The Straits Times Index achieved a year-on-year increase of 22.67% in 2025 [1]. - The index reached a new historical high during intraday trading last week [1]. - Short-term market volatility may increase due to geopolitical risks and the release of concentrated macroeconomic data from the United States [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions following the U.S. attack on Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][5]. - Gold prices surged by 2.1%, surpassing $4,420 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 4.8% in response to the news [1][5]. - President Trump's statement about the U.S. plans to "take over" Venezuela after Maduro's regime change adds uncertainty to the future governance of the country [1][5]. Group 2 - Gold achieved its best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, with prices reaching new highs [2][8]. - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodities Index may trigger significant sell-offs from passive funds, with over $5 billion in silver and approximately $6 billion in gold futures expected to be sold [2][8]. - The current geopolitical risk premium is offsetting downward pressure on precious metals, with any news regarding Venezuela's resistance or external intervention likely to further stimulate prices [2][8]. Group 3 - The arrest of Maduro has created a power vacuum, raising concerns about potential civil war or broader regional unrest, which could fuel further increases in precious metal prices [3][9]. - If U.S. military actions in Venezuela lead to long-term presence or large-scale aid, it may increase fiscal burdens and impact the credibility of the U.S. dollar, providing deeper support for gold in the long run [3][9]. - Conversely, a rapid and smooth regime change could lead to profit-taking in safe-haven assets, resulting in a sharp correction in gold prices [3][9].

来源：每日经济新闻 新年首个交易日来了！ 在美国周末对委内瑞拉发起"斩首式"军事行动、强行抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，全球投资者在新年伊 始正面临地缘政治风险的再度大幅升温。周一开盘后，国际油价在小幅低开后走高又转跌、现货黄金和 白银价格则大幅上涨。 新华社1月5日报道，美国总统特朗普4日号称，美国已"掌控"委内瑞拉。 黄金、白银大涨 1月5日早间，贵金属集体大涨。数据显示，现货黄金重回4400美元关口，日内涨幅扩大至1.6%；现货 白银一度涨超4%，现报75.46美元/盎司。 | 贵金属 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 4404.000 | 75.464 | 4414.9 | | +72.425 +1.67% | +2.645 +3.63% | +85.3 +1.97% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE白银 | | 75.015 | 992.54 | 18232 | | +4.000 +5.63% | +11.32 +1.15% | +195 +1.08% | 国内商品期货市场开盘，贵金属板块同样大涨，钯金以 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events - The domestic futures market experienced significant volatility, with palladium, lithium carbonate, and platinum rising over 6%, while crude oil, coking coal, and soda ash fell over 2% due to a geopolitical event involving Venezuela [1][10] - A sudden military action by the U.S. against Venezuela led to a surge in safe-haven buying in the precious metals market, with palladium futures rising over 8% and platinum futures increasing over 6% [3][15] - Analysts noted that the rebound in platinum and palladium was primarily driven by geopolitical risks rather than significant changes in their fundamental demand [3][15] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, driven by clear domestic policy support and tightening supply conditions [5][18] - The Chinese government extended the subsidy for replacing old cars with new ones, enhancing demand expectations for the lithium battery industry [6][18] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 119,500 yuan per ton, indicating a strong bullish sentiment due to supply constraints [6][18] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Analysis - Despite the geopolitical event involving Venezuela, domestic crude oil futures fell over 3%, highlighting complex market dynamics [5][17] - Concerns about global economic growth and risk appetite were cited as primary factors suppressing crude oil demand expectations [5][17] - The long-term supply-demand outlook for crude oil remains unchanged, with no significant supply disruptions expected [5][17] Group 4: Macro Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, indicating a return to expansion and providing fundamental support for the market [7][19] - The positive macroeconomic sentiment contributed to a strong performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 500 index rising 3.11% [7][19] - Improved macroeconomic conditions also positively impacted basic metals, with aluminum, copper, and zinc futures all rising over 2% [7][20] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue operating under the dual themes of external risk disturbances and internal industrial transformations in 2026 [10][21] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities amidst market differentiation and competition, with ongoing volatility in precious metals and the need for further data to validate the performance of the new energy sector [10][22]

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月5日电（葛佳明）受委内瑞拉局势变动影响，1月5日贵金属集体大涨。新华财经数据显 示，现货黄金重回4400美元关口，截至发稿，日内涨幅扩大至2%；现货白银涨幅逼近4%，报75美元。 国际油价则维持弱势盘整走势，布伦特原油价格在每桶61美元附近徘徊。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对新华财经表示，海外地缘政局复杂性依旧，对贵金属形成 一定利多。今日亚洲早盘，贵金属高开高走，并与美元指数同涨，主要受避险资金推动。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，从短期来看，委内瑞拉局势对油价走势造成的影响尚不明确，但存在一 定的温和风险，具体取决于美国制裁政策如何演变；而从长期来看，委内瑞拉石油产量或将回升，这最 终可能对全球原油价格构成压力。 高盛维持其对2026年的原油均价预期不变：布伦特原油均价为每桶56美元；WTI原油均价为每桶52美 元。同时，该行预计委内瑞拉2026年的石油产量将保持在每天90万桶的水平。 而对于原油走势来说，多数分析师则表达了较为悲观的预期，委内瑞拉的波动可能会让石油价格出现短 期震荡局面，中长期来看，受到全球经济疲软影响，原油供应依然供大于求，原油价格在2026年 ...

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 995.000 期货市场 | | 17.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 18247 | +1173.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 132,523.00 | | -3780.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 2,370.00 | -238.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 115,296.00 | | -169259.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 671,811.00 | -1627695.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 97704 | | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 669,547 | -22091↓ | | | 上金所黄金现货价 993.57 现货市场 | | 18.67↑ 华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical events, has led to a significant increase in consumer gold jewelry prices, reflecting a broader market trend of rising gold value supported by monetary easing and heightened risk aversion [2][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 5, 2026, gold prices opened sharply higher, reaching $4,422 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.08% [2]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a concentrated release of market risk aversion, with institutions expressing optimism about gold's performance throughout the year [2][11]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - Due to the increase in international gold prices, the jewelry brand Chow Sang Sang will adjust prices for certain gold products starting January 6, with increases ranging from 200 to 1,500 yuan [5]. - The price adjustments will affect products such as charm beads and branded collaborations, indicating that these items are sensitive to fluctuations in international gold prices [5][8]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, suggesting that gold could challenge $5,400 if financial or political risks escalate [11]. - The report highlights that the current rise in gold prices is driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, increased geopolitical tensions, and ongoing institutional uncertainty, with a projected global central bank gold net purchase of 950 tons in 2026 [11].

截至上周五(1月2日)，伦敦现货黄金报收4332.51美元/盎司，自12月26日以来累计下跌200.00美元/盎 司，跌幅-4.41%。上周伦敦现货黄金价格于周一最高上行至4550.52美元/盎司突破前高，随后有所回 落。 地缘扰动有所升级。俄乌冲突仍在延续，乌军对俄多处人员和武器装备集中区实施打击，摧毁俄军坦 克、火炮、防空系统、无人机等目标；俄军在多地打击乌军，击毁乌军装甲车、反炮兵雷达站及电子战 系统、弹药库等。委内瑞拉总统被美方控制，1月3日美国对委内瑞拉实施了大规模打击，继续实现美国 对委内瑞拉颠覆政权的战略目标，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美方控制并带离委内瑞拉。本次突袭是特朗 普"西半球优先"战略调整的关键案例，可能造成其他国家的不安全感加深，带来避险需求的提升。 交易方面，芝商所一周两度上调金属品种保证金，芝商所(CME Group)于上周一、上周三收盘后，两次 上调黄金、白银等金属期货品种的履约保证金，称这一决定是基于对"市场波动性以确保充足的抵押品 覆盖"的审查做出的。市场人士看来，此举反映了交易所对当前贵金属市场异常波动的深度担忧；彭博 和标普商品指数将于本周开始年度调仓，由于2025年贵金属涨 ...

Ø 观点：在全球原油市场维持供应过剩的背景下，2026年油价运行中枢预计将承压。基准情景下，我们预计WTI原油价格可能下探 50美元/桶的关键支撑，对应国内SC原油期货价格或测试380元/桶附近。 Ø 逻辑：供应过剩仍是当前的主要逻辑，这一格局由"供应稳步增长"和"需求弹性不足"共同决定。一方面，在OPEC+增产及非 OPEC+国家产量增加的现实背景下，全球原油产量仍维持稳步增加，两者共同保障了全球产量的稳步增长，但受投资约束与资源 条件限制，整体增速预计将较往年放缓。另外一方面，随着全球经济步入低增速周期，原油需求更多体现为刚性，有限需求增 量难以扭转供应过剩的局面。在此背景下，油价整体将延续偏弱运行的态势，库存周期的将主导油价的阶段性走势，走势大概 率呈现"先抑后扬"的格局。一季度作为传统的消费淡季，将导致上半年全球原油市场面临显著的累库压力，油价预计震荡寻 底，二是下半年随着季节性需求回暖，叠加OPEC+可能根据市场变化调整产量政策，供需矛盾有望边际缓和，从而为油价提供支 撑。 Ø 风险点：地缘政治因素将继续作为2026年油价波动的核心扰动项，但其影响方向可能出现分化。一方面，中东局势存在恶化的 潜在风 ...

Core Insights - The first domestic fuel price adjustment in 2026 is scheduled for January 6 at 24:00, with expectations of a potential price increase or stability due to fluctuating international oil prices [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Mechanism - The domestic fuel price adjustment mechanism has shown a "rise then fall" trend due to significant fluctuations in the international oil market, influenced by geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1] - As of January 2, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 1.04%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 CNY per ton [1] Group 2: Price Adjustment Calendar - The 2026 fuel price adjustment calendar includes multiple scheduled dates throughout the year, with the first adjustment on January 6, followed by subsequent adjustments on January 20, February 3, and February 24, among others [2]