Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently influenced by the rebound of the US dollar index and a decrease in international trade tensions, with a focus on US fiscal and monetary policy outlooks. Short-term gold prices are constrained by the dollar, interest rate expectations, and economic data, while long-term trends remain bullish due to potential declines in real yields under the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a peak at 3315 before a rapid decline, reaching a low of 3250 after a major sell-off triggered by the halt of tariff policies [1][3]. - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a recorded daily candle, but prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a potential for stabilization and a bullish outlook in the longer term [4]. - Short-term indicators show a V-shaped recovery after touching 3250, with resistance levels identified at 3280-3290 and support at 3230-3220 [4]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also experiencing volatility, influenced by industrial demand and macroeconomic factors. Key support is at 32.5, with resistance at 34. A failure to hold the support could lead to a drop to 31.50 [6]. - The recommendation for silver trading is to focus on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at 33.20-33.35 and support at 32.65-32.50 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has raised market concerns regarding the future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate and its impact on the Chinese stock market [1][2][4] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown a significant upward trend since early April, recovering the "7.2" level by the end of May, with a 1.01% increase in May alone and a total increase of 1.48% since the beginning of the year [1] - The offshore RMB has mirrored this trend, rising 2.03% year-to-date as of May 28 [1] - The USD index has declined over 8% since the beginning of the year, falling from a high of 109 to below 100 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two factors: the depreciation of the USD and proactive domestic macroeconomic policies that enhance economic resilience [2] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and accelerated fiscal spending, which have provided internal support for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Impact on Chinese Stock Market - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to attract more foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a potential 3% appreciation of the RMB against the USD over the next 12 months [4] - Historical data suggests that when the RMB appreciates, the Chinese stock market tends to perform well, aligning with trading patterns observed in other Asian emerging markets [4] - A 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD could lead to an approximate 3% increase in returns for the Chinese stock market, assuming other conditions remain constant [4]

智通财经5月29日电，美元指数日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报100.40。 ...

美元指数DXY日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报100.40。 ...

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is attributed to two main factors: the depreciation of the USD and the implementation of proactive domestic macroeconomic policies [3] - The USD index has shown a downward trend this year, dropping over 8% from a high of 109 to below 100 [3] - Future RMB exchange rate movements are expected to be influenced by the progress of China-US trade talks and the USD exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the Chinese stock market, with an expected improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [4] - The report estimates that the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [4] - Other foreign institutions, such as UBS, also express optimism about the Chinese stock market, noting that the MSCI China Index is undervalued compared to historical averages [5]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its upward momentum, reaching a weekly high of 99.80, driven by improved economic data, although the rally lacks strong momentum [1] - Key factors supporting the dollar's rise include better-than-expected US durable goods orders and consumer confidence data. April durable goods orders fell by 6.3%, but this was better than the market expectation of -7.9%. Core orders, excluding transportation, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, alleviating recession concerns [2] - The US consumer confidence index unexpectedly surged to 98 in May, a significant increase of 12.3 points from April's 85.7, marking the largest monthly gain in four years. This reflects improved market expectations regarding the economy and employment prospects [2] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a daily high of 3350 and a low of 3285, closing below 3300. The focus is on whether the price can break below 3280, with potential targets at 3260 and 3250 [3] - On May 28, gold maintained a volatile trend, opening at $3301.80 per ounce, reaching a high of $3315.45 and a low of $3291.45, with a current price of $3307.09, reflecting a slight increase of 0.19% [4]

Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On May 27, 2025, international gold prices dropped significantly, with London spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,300.46, a daily decline of 1.25% [1] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 1.27% to $3,299.7 per ounce, influenced by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a rebound in the dollar index, and easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been adjusted downwards in response to the international gold price decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their gold prices to 986 CNY per gram, a decrease of 10-29 CNY per gram [3] - Lao Miao's gold price has dropped to 997 CNY per gram, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market offers a competitive price of 756 CNY per gram with low processing fees [3] Group 3: Core Reasons for Price Volatility - Market sentiment and policy impacts include cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating no imminent rate cuts, which diminishes gold's appeal [4] - Progress in US-EU trade negotiations and the postponement of tariff increases by Trump have alleviated market tensions [4] - Technical adjustments are evident, with gold prices having risen over 20% since mid-April, leading to profit-taking [4] - Changes in consumer behavior show a shift towards high-value channels and lighter wedding jewelry designs, with average weights decreasing from 40 grams to 30 grams [4] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Trends - Investor sentiment is polarized, with some leveraged traders facing losses exceeding 470,000 CNY in a single day, while long-term investors remain optimistic about gold's inflation-hedging properties [5] - China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April to 127.5 tons [5] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected around the $3,300 per ounce support level, with potential volatility of 5%-10% if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance in June [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,350 [5] - Long-term support factors include ongoing global central bank gold purchases and a weakening trend in dollar credit, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could challenge $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [5] Group 5: Consumption and Investment Recommendations - For essential consumption, it is advisable to prioritize bank gold bars (with a premium of about 3%) or wholesale market options to avoid high processing fees associated with branded gold jewelry [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations on May 28, with the market focusing on the pressure within the trading range. The previous day's market was influenced by the U.S. market closure, leading to continued volatility due to changing tariff situations, which has pressured gold prices. The market now anticipates a potential agreement, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, resulting in significant capital withdrawal from the gold market [1] - Multiple bearish factors are contributing to the decline in gold prices. The strengthening U.S. dollar has created pressure on gold priced in dollars, with the dollar index rising against a basket of currencies, particularly a 1% increase against the yen [2] - The strong performance of global stock markets has diverted funds from gold. On the previous day, the Dow Jones surged by 740 points (1.78%), the S&P 500 rose by 2.05%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.47%, with technology stocks leading the rally, attracting capital away from safe-haven assets [2] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted. The Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called for maintaining stable interest rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clearer. This statement reinforced expectations that the Fed may pause interest rate hikes, which theoretically should support gold prices, but was overlooked in the current risk-on sentiment [2] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture. The U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped by 14.4% in May, exceeding economists' expectations, while April's core durable goods orders saw the largest decline in six months, indicating weakened business investment at the start of Q2. This contradictory economic signal suggests a delicate moment for the U.S. economy, with executives delaying capital projects until policies become clearer, although optimism prevails in the current market environment [2] Market Data - Current spot gold is priced around $3350 per ounce, while spot silver is at $33.50 per ounce [3] - The dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound phase, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [3] Trend Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, suggesting a strategy of placing long positions near support and short positions near resistance [7] - Technical indicators for silver show that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with support at 32.05. The MACD indicates a downward trend, and market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7] Trading Strategy - A proposed trading strategy includes placing short positions around $33.35, with a stop-loss at $33.68 and take-profit targets between $34.00 and $34.60 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors drove a short - term rebound in the US dollar index, leading to weak performance in precious metal prices. The poor Japanese bond auction results and potential adjustments to Japan's bond - issuance structure caused the Japanese bond yield to fall, driving up the US dollar against the yen and strengthening the US dollar index by 0.58% to 99.57 [2]. - US real - estate and manufacturing indicators were affected in a high - interest - rate environment. The April durable - goods orders had a significant decline, and the March real - estate price index was lower than expected. The market anticipates two 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts by the Fed in September and December. Attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of US economic recession risks on precious metal prices [3]. - For gold, it is recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for significant price corrections to buy at lower prices. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 756 - 836 yuan/gram. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see for now. Silver has strong upward momentum only when the Fed makes a clear dovish statement. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - On May 27, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3299.70 per ounce, down 1.73% from the previous day; COMEX silver closed at $33.39 per ounce, down 0.76%. Shanghai gold futures (Au(T + D)) closed at 768.48 yuan/gram, down 0.70%, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag(T + D)) closed at 8189 yuan/kilogram, down 0.61% [4][6]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 99.6147, up 0.64% [4]. Price and Volume Relationships - For COMEX gold, the trading volume increased by 22.61% to 29.20 million lots, and the open interest increased by 1.62% to 44.80 million lots. For COMEX silver, the open interest increased by 2.31% to 14.15 million lots [6]. Price Structure and Spread - On May 27, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was 6.43 yuan/gram, and the SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 515.30 yuan/kilogram [55].

【资讯导读】 ·5月美国消费者信心指数大幅上升 ·法国5月调和CPI同比上涨0.6%，为2020年12月以来的最低水平，低于市场预期的0.9%。 ·叙利亚财政部长称，叙利亚将从6月2日开始重新开放股票市场。 ·特朗普政府正在考虑要求所有申请赴美留学的外国学生接受社交媒体审查 ·叙利亚将从6月2日开始重新开放股票市场 ·日本34年来首次失去全球最大债权国地位 【市场资讯】 ·美国3月FHFA房价指数环比降0.1%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。美国3月S&P/CS20座大 城市未季调房价指数同比升4.1%，预期升4.5%，前值升4.5%。 ·世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，5月美国消费者信心指数从4月的85.7大幅上升至98，高于所有经济 学家预期。 ·受商用飞机订单锐减拖累，美国4月耐用品订单超预期下滑，核心资本货物订单环比下降1.3%，创去年 10月以来最大跌幅。整体耐用品订单环比初值暴跌6.3%。 ·美国特朗普政府正在考虑要求所有申请赴美留学的外国学生接受社交媒体审查。为准备实施这一审查 要求，特朗普政府已下令美国各大使馆和领事馆停止为此类学生签证申请人安排新的面试。 ·墨西哥经济部长Mar ...