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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程增长维度回正,风险资产持续表现-20250818
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-08-18 09:47
Market Overview - Macro growth factors have stabilized, with the Jianxin Gaojin growth factor turning positive, indicating a recovery in macro growth expectations[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 8.58%, leading global markets, driven by a renewed preference for technology growth sectors[9] - Market risk appetite has improved, with trading volume increasing by 24.1% week-on-week, reflecting heightened investor participation[57] Inflation and Economic Indicators - CPI year-on-year growth is at 0.1%, while PPI remains low, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[4] - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[39] Asset Class Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Equities: In the U.S., focus on technology sectors with long-term AI investment opportunities, as economic data shows resilience[5] - Commodities: Structural differentiation is evident, with strong performance in soybean meal (+5.59%) due to supply concerns[4] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Valuation and Earnings Expectations - A-share valuations have increased, with the CSI 800's P/E ratio at the 13th percentile of the past three years, indicating rising valuation pressure[64] - Analysts project a 9.9% year-on-year earnings growth for the CSI 800, with revenue growth expectations at 6.0%[65]
宏锡基金带您读懂期权:从零基础入门到资产配置的进阶之路
期权入门指南: 零基础也能秒懂的核心要点 "期"表示未来,"权"表示权利。期权,就是未来的权利的意思。其英文名称 "option" 直指本质——赋予期权持有者自由选择的权利。 期权是一种金融合约,赋予购买者在某个交易日或之前,以固定价格买/卖出某种金融资产的权利。 权利持有人(买方)既选择可以行权,也可以选择不行权。买方需要支付小额费用(权利金)锁定这个权利,卖方则承担相应的履约义务。 1、期权合约的六大要素 (1)标的资产:期权合约的"主角" 标的资产是指期权合约所对应的基础资产。它可以是商品、股指、外汇等。如玉米期权对应玉米期货合约,股指期权对应股票指数。 (2)权利类型:多空战场的"指挥棒" 权利类型决定了是有权买入还是卖出标的资产。 ①看涨期权(Call):未来买入标的资产的权利,如果你认为未来标的资产价格可能上涨,可购入看涨期权; ②看跌期权(Put):未来卖出标的资产的权利,如果你认为未来标的资产价格可能下跌,可购入看跌期权。 例如,50ETF期权的合约单位为1万,买了一份50ETF期权看涨期权就相当于拥有1万份50ETF的购买权利。 (5)行权价格:交易的"锚定点" (3)到期日:期权合约的"保 ...
港股异动丨华检医疗一度涨超6% 拟购买加密货币 总金额不超30亿港元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 07:56
Core Viewpoint - The company, Huajian Medical (1931.HK), has proposed to seek shareholder approval for a purchase authorization to invest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum (ETH), as part of its asset allocation strategy and business development plans [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company's board believes that purchasing and holding cryptocurrencies is a crucial step in solidifying its Ethereum reserves and accelerating the development of the ivd.xyz exchange ecosystem [1] - The board has recommended that shareholders approve a resolution allowing the company to potentially purchase cryptocurrencies over a period of 36 months, with a total purchase limit not exceeding 3 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The potential cryptocurrency purchases and the authorization for such purchases are considered to align with the company's long-term development strategy and the overall interests of its shareholders [1]
从“定存族”到理财高手:低利率时代的资产配置升级战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 07:01
Core Viewpoint - The traditional bank deposit attractiveness has significantly declined due to low interest rates, prompting a shift in investment strategies among young people towards alternative financial products [1][2][13]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The one-year fixed deposit rate of the six major banks in China has dropped to 0.95%, marking a historic low [1]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a trend towards a moderately loose monetary policy, which may lead to further declines in deposit rates [1][2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is increasingly evident, with funds moving from traditional savings accounts to other financial products [2]. Group 2: Investment Alternatives - Money market funds, bond funds, and gold are becoming popular investment choices for young people seeking higher returns and lower volatility [1][3][14]. - Money market funds offer high liquidity and low risk, with annualized returns between 1.1% and 1.5%, which is higher than bank savings but may decrease further [4][5]. - Bond funds provide greater yield elasticity and are considered medium-low risk, suitable for investors with a six-month or longer investment horizon [6][7][14]. - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, but it carries higher volatility and does not generate interest or dividends [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The emergence of hybrid investment strategies, such as money-bond advisory strategies, aims to balance liquidity and yield elasticity by dynamically adjusting the proportions of money market and bond funds [10][12]. - The "工银货债通" product exemplifies this strategy, achieving an annualized return of 2.33% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of 0.12% [12][14]. - These strategies are particularly suitable for low-risk investors seeking slightly higher returns while maintaining liquidity [12][14].
楼市和黄金,信仰资产的“乾坤大挪移”
Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge is referred to as a "re-monetization trend," marking the longest bull market since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, with gold prices rising from $1,046 per ounce in December 2015 to a record high of $2,685 per ounce by December 2024 [4][6] - Over the past two years, the primary buyers of gold have shifted from Western ETF retail investors to central banks and sovereign wealth funds, indicating a significant change in market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [4][6] - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, a historic high, as they seek to diversify away from dollar reserves and mitigate risks associated with potential sanctions [7][8] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Trends - Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable price increase, soaring from $26,000 in August 2023 to over $122,000 by August 2025, representing a nearly 470% increase in market capitalization from $500 billion to $2.4 trillion [5] Group 3: Global Economic Shifts - The post-World War II dollar system is perceived to be collapsing, prompting countries to seek new anchors for their financial systems, including potential gold-backed digital currencies [6][8] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2024, while gold's share has increased from 9% to 20%, reflecting a significant shift in reserve asset preferences [8] Group 4: Real Estate Market Changes - The perception of real estate as a safe investment is changing, with properties transitioning from being viewed as wealth amplifiers to financial liabilities, leading to a reevaluation of their investment potential [10][11] - The belief in continuously rising property values is being challenged, as individuals now focus on cash flow and the potential for depreciation rather than solely on price appreciation [12][14]
非银存款飙升2.14万亿,居民存款减少1.11万亿,结构性资金迁移加速
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 04:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant structural change in the financial landscape, with non-bank deposits reaching a record high of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [1][2] - The surge in non-bank deposits is closely linked to the strong performance of the capital markets, which has led to increased trading activity and higher margin deposits at securities firms [2][3] - There is a noticeable shift in asset allocation among residents, as funds move from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, reflecting a changing investment mindset [3] Group 2 - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a decline in deposit rates and a recovery in the capital markets, which has created a "see-saw" effect in asset allocation [3] - Financial products such as wealth management and funds are becoming significant destinations for resident funds, indicating a diversification in investment channels [3] - The capital market's strength since late June has attracted off-balance-sheet funds back into the banking system, further driving the growth of non-bank deposits [2]
多策略叠加打造增强引擎 南方中证A500指数增强8月18日正式发售
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-18 02:15
Core Viewpoint - The Southern Asset Management has launched the Southern CSI A500 Index Enhanced Fund, aiming to provide investors with a quality tool for allocating core A-share assets while striving for excess returns based on the new generation of broad-based indices, the CSI A500 Index [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - The Southern CSI A500 Index Enhanced Fund is anchored to the CSI A500 Index and leverages the quantitative investment team's expertise to achieve excess returns while tracking the index's beta returns [1] - The fund's management fee is set at 0.80% per year, with a custody fee of 0.10% per year and a sales service fee of 0.40% for Class C shares, combining low costs and high transparency typical of index funds with the management capabilities of the fund manager [5] Group 2: Team and Strategy - The quantitative investment team consists of 13 members with an average of over 8 years of industry experience, focusing on a platform-based work model to enhance transparency and collaboration in investment research [2] - The investment strategy employs a "multi-strategy overlay" approach, utilizing a diverse set of sub-strategies to achieve stable enhancement of the target benchmark, incorporating models such as multi-factor, fundamental quantitative, style rotation, and deep learning [4] Group 3: Market Positioning - The CSI A500 Index covers 107 industries in the A-share market, including sectors like semiconductors, healthcare, banking, and liquor, representing a "condensed version" of the entire market, which allows the fund to capture opportunities in new productivity sectors while balancing traditional industry values [5] - Southern Asset Management has validated its strength in broad-based management, with multiple index products exceeding 100 billion in scale, indicating a robust track record in managing large-scale index funds [5]
818理财直播周重磅来袭!“星火计划”讲师团坐镇5大专场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 02:04
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "818 Financial Live Streaming Week" aims to address investors' concerns about navigating the complex financial market, focusing on both identifying genuine opportunities and avoiding risks associated with non-standard financial activities [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Securities Times and supported by the Capital Market Investor Education "Spark Plan," featuring five specialized sessions and numerous experienced financial instructors from leading financial institutions [1][2]. - The live streaming will take place from August 18 to 22, with daily sessions at 15:00 on the Securities Times website, app, and video channels [1][8]. Group 2: Session Breakdown - **August 18 (Asset Allocation Session)**: Experts will discuss practical strategies for achieving stable returns amidst market volatility, focusing on "cash is king" and "cross-cycle allocation" [4]. - **August 19 (Stock Investment Session)**: The session will help novice investors build their investment framework by covering stock fundamentals, technical analysis, and market information collection [5]. - **August 20 (Fund Investment Session)**: This session will explain advanced techniques for fund investment, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment plans for ordinary investors [6]. - **August 21 (Futures Investment Session)**: Experts will analyze the practical applications of futures and options, providing insights into investment, hedging, and arbitrage strategies [7]. - **August 22 (Financial Literacy Session)**: The focus will be on financial education for both youth and general investors, exploring effective money management [8]. Group 3: Educational Initiative - The "Spark Plan" is a collaborative initiative involving multiple stakeholders, including stock exchanges and investor service centers, aimed at creating a comprehensive investor education platform [8]. - Since its launch on May 15, 2024, the initiative has attracted over 100 institutions and reached more than 50 million investors through quality content and innovative activities [8].
股债“跷跷板”又来了!资产如何更好配置?
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market and the bond market, highlighting the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, and suggests a balanced asset allocation strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since 2015, the performance of the stock index (CSI 300) and the bond index (CITIC All Bond) has shown significant fluctuations, with six periods of opposite performance noted [1]. - The annual performance data from 2015 to 2024 indicates that the bond index has outperformed the stock index in several years, with notable differences in percentage changes [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised against focusing solely on either stocks or bonds due to the cyclical nature of their performance, suggesting a mixed asset allocation approach [2][3]. - A proposed strategy involves primarily investing in bonds while allocating a smaller portion to stocks, which can help capture opportunities during stock market upswings while providing stability during downturns [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The article highlights the performance of mixed-asset funds, particularly those with a bond focus, which have shown better cumulative returns and lower volatility compared to the CSI 300 index over the past 20 years [3][4]. - Specific funds, such as the "Guofu Anyi Stable 6-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund," have demonstrated positive returns across various time frames, indicating effective risk management and performance consistency [6][7]. Group 4: Risk Management - The "Guofu Anyi Stable" fund has shown superior risk control metrics, including lower annualized volatility and maximum drawdown compared to its peers, suggesting a strong risk-adjusted performance [6][7]. - The fund's Sharpe and Calmar ratios also outperform the average of similar funds, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [6].
基金经理开实盘,收益率跑输普通网民?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-18 00:01
Core Viewpoint - The increasing popularity of A-shares has led many public fund managers to open real-time trading accounts on online platforms to showcase their performance [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Managers Opening Real Accounts - Numerous public fund managers, including those from Guojin Fund and Guotai Fund, have opened real accounts on platforms like Tiantian Fund and Ant Wealth [2][10]. - The total amount of these real accounts is generally high, with some exceeding 4 million yuan, such as Guojin Fund's Yao Jiahong, whose account reached 4.1394 million yuan [11]. Group 2: Performance and Investment Choices - Some fund managers have reported holding profits exceeding 1 million yuan, indicating positive returns [3][13]. - Fund managers predominantly invest in their own products or those from their fund companies, with no evidence of investing in products from other companies [8][9]. Group 3: Comparison with Retail Investors - Despite the reported profits, fund managers' returns often lag behind those of ordinary investors, with the top retail investors achieving monthly returns between 30.41% and 39.39% [16][17]. - Over the past year, no fund manager has made it to the top performance rankings, which raises questions about their short-term investment capabilities compared to retail investors [18][19]. Group 4: Implications and Industry Perspectives - The practice of fund managers opening real accounts may enhance trust and transparency with investors, especially for smaller firms or emerging managers [22][23]. - However, there are concerns that these accounts primarily serve as a marketing tool for their own products rather than providing genuine investment insights [12][21][26].