这场戏的主角是美国共和党的资深参议员林赛·格雷厄姆，刚刚从白宫椭圆形办公室出来，神采奕奕地立刻在社交媒体上发布了一条震惊全球的消息：任何 购买俄罗斯石油和天然气的国家，其出口到美国的所有商品，将被征收至少500%的关税。这不再仅仅是关税，这简直是一种变相的全面禁运，意图通过窒 息疗法切断对手的经济命脉。 这场戏的目标异常明确。格雷厄姆在接受福克斯新闻采访时，毫不避讳地列出了狩猎名单：中国、印度、巴西。这三个国家不仅代表了金砖国家的核心力 量，也象征着全球南方国家对于独立自主发展的强烈愿望。美国通过设置500%的高关税壁垒，企图一举达成三重目的：一是经济上让俄罗斯彻底窒息；二 是分裂金砖组织；三是全球范围内确立顺我者昌，逆我者亡的霸权铁律。 然而，这个近乎疯狂的500%关税数字，却引发了全球范围内两极化的反应。最先受到冲击，且反应最为剧烈的，是平日里自诩左右逢源的印度。在这场强 硬压力面前，印度长期以来的平衡策略瞬间失效。莫迪政府一直在美国和俄罗斯之间寻找微妙的中间地带：一方面拿着美国的投资与技术承诺，另一方面以 低价大量进口俄罗斯石油，支撑本国制造业的发展。 刚刚从大洋彼岸传来的消息，让全球外交圈和金融圈都炸 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with gold futures reaching over $4600 per ounce and silver prices fluctuating around $84 per ounce, both marking historical highs [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to its status as a key safe-haven asset, influenced by the U.S. government's military actions against Venezuela, which observers believe may accelerate the trend of "de-dollarization" among countries, thereby supporting international gold prices [1] - The silver market is experiencing a persistent supply shortage, which is expected to continue in the short term, leading to a rebound in silver prices and market expectations for further price increases [1] Group 2 - Projections indicate that gold prices are expected to rise over 60% by 2025, while silver prices may increase by nearly 150% during the same period [2]

Group 1 - The price of paper gold is currently trading around 1026.24 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 1.68%, reaching a high of 1032.04 CNY and a low of 1009.29 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for paper gold is bullish, indicating a potential upward trend in prices [1] Group 2 - The global gold price is surging while the dollar is depreciating, leading to a decline in the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [2] - By 2025, the trend of de-dollarization is expected to become more pronounced, with central banks increasing their gold holdings, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years [2] - The share of U.S. debt in central bank reserves is projected to fall below 25%, while gold's share is expected to rise above 25%, marking the first time since 1996 that gold exceeds U.S. debt in reserves [2] Group 3 - The paper gold price on January 9, 2026, was reported at 1003.45 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.35%, continuing a trend of upward movement [3] - Key support for paper gold is at 1000.00 CNY, with resistance levels between 1009 and 1012 CNY, showing a strong correlation with Shanghai Gold Exchange prices [3] - Market activity remains robust with stable positions and no concentrated redemptions, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold and silver futures prices due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with gold reaching over $4600 per ounce and silver nearing $84 per ounce, both marking historical highs [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly following the U.S. military actions against Venezuela, which are expected to accelerate the trend of "de-dollarization" among countries, providing strong support for international gold prices [1] - The forecast indicates that gold prices are expected to increase by over 60% by 2025 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The silver market is experiencing a supply shortage, which is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to a rebound in silver prices [1] - Predictions suggest that silver prices may rise by nearly 150% by 2025 [1]

周一（1月12日）金价早盘高开高走，及时追涨多单布局方案。现货黄金在经历早盘下探后强劲反弹，目前每盎司4555.28美元附近，现货黄金价格再度上演 惊心动魄的上涨行情，周涨幅接近4%，距离去年12月底创下的历史峰值4549.71美元已经非常接近，美国就业数据欠佳和地缘政治局势动荡，给金价提供了 上涨动能。整个市场弥漫着一种难以抑制的兴奋情绪——黄金似乎正在为冲击5000美元大关积蓄最后的力量。 这些事件叠加在一起，形成了一个极端罕见的"信任崩塌连锁反应"。当超级大国开始公然谈论扣押盟友资产、违反国际法、威胁接管他国领土时，美元作为 世界秩序核心的信誉正在被快速消耗。 去美元化不再是理论口号，而是正在发生的现实。各国央行、机构、甚至普通投资者，都在用最古老也最可靠的方式对冲这种体系性风险——疯狂买入黄 金。机构集体高喊5000美元，黄金牛市进入"信仰阶段"零售投资者同样保持高度乐观，近七成看好后市。 更值得注意的是，黄金已经不再单纯依赖美联储降息逻辑，而是进入了一个更高级的"信仰驱动"阶段：只要全球秩序的不确定性一天不消退，黄金的配置价 值就一天不会下降。这张2026年金价月线图表，生动展示了多头们当前瞄准的下 ...

黄金大涨背后主要受到两方面因素推动，一是近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金，二是美联 储独立性危机仍在发酵。 新华财经上海1月12日电（葛佳明） 全球金融市场的避险情绪正同时受到伊朗最新局势不确定性以及美 联储相关司法争议的影响。1月12日早盘，伦敦现货黄金价格一度突破4600美元／盎司，最高达到 4600.79美元／盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货白银涨近5%，逼近84美元／盎司，创下历史新高。 在王彦青看来，当前信用货币体系的动摇是支撑贵金属上涨的核心原因。一方面从美国内部看，美国总 统特朗普与美联储之间的争端正持续削弱美元的信用。美联储独立性的动摇叠加美国财政与政府债务扩 张加速均推动了去美元化的进程；另一方面从全球来看，大国博弈逐渐白热化，国家之间不信任的增 加，亦推动去美元化进程。 "前期芝商所（CME）两度上调白银保证金、以及年初大宗商品指数再平衡，被动基金短期集中抛售部 分黄金和白银，导致白银价格波动加大。"东海期货宏观研究员明道雨直言。 对于贵金属后续走势，明道雨认为，短期地缘因素是驱动黄金价格上涨的主要推动力，维持黄金价格继 续上行的观点。美元信用下降、全球央行购金是主导黄金长期上涨趋势的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December fell short of expectations, leading to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in precious metal prices. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and initiated a reserve management - type balance - sheet expansion. With the weakening of US economic data, the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. Due to concerns about potential US tariffs on platinum and palladium imports, their prices are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data to be released on Tuesday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US December non - farm payrolls fell short of expectations, increasing interest - rate cut expectations and providing liquidity support. Gold prices rose, with the US gold closing at $4,518 per ounce last Friday, up 4.1% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,580, and the lower support level is $4,460. Silver prices also rose due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot. The weekly gain was 10.4%, closing at $79.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $76 and an upper resistance level of $83 [6][9]. 2. Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in December were lower than expected, and the precious metal prices continued to be strong. The Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet. The slowdown in the US employment situation and the weakening of economic data suggest that the mid - term price centers of gold and silver will move up. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to remain strong and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the US December CPI data [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple macro - economic indicators such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [15][17][19]. 4. Current Week's Important Economic Data - The actual values and expected values of US December economic data are presented, including non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP employment, and ISM non - manufacturing PMI [24]. 5. Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased. It is expected that the Fed will pause interest - rate cuts in January and from January to May, and may cut interest rates 1 - 2 times after the new chairman takes office. The US is discussing the option of acquiring Greenland [25]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2,832.02 kg to 1,129,427.74 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 51 kg to 97,653 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312,057.22 kg to 13,677,468.74 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 71,376 kg to 620,262 kg [13][30]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 6, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 213,743 contracts, a decrease of 5,756 contracts from last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 28,532 contracts, a decrease of 127 contracts from last week [13][34]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On January 13 (Tuesday) at 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released; on January 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate and November PPI annual rate will be released; on January 15 (Thursday) at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 will be released [36].

更值得关注的是，黄金已不再单纯依赖美联储降息逻辑，而是进入"信仰驱动"的更高阶段：只要全球秩 序的不确定性未消，黄金的配置价值便不会下降。2026年的黄金行情，本质上已超越传统宏观交易范 畴，成为一场对"旧世界秩序信任度"的集体投票。 只要伊朗骚乱、格陵兰争议、关税大棒、美元武器化等任一维度持续发酵，黄金便难现系统性顶部。 5000美元或许不再是天花板，而只是下一个心理关口。 本周市场还需重点关注：周二将公布美国12月CPI报告，周三将发布10月及11月PPI数据，以及被称 为"恐怖数据"的11月零售销售数据;同时，地缘局势相关消息也需持续跟踪。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 从黄金日线走势来看，当前呈现强势多头反转形态，近5个交易日录得6阳1阴，三连阳走势不仅完全覆 盖12月29日大阴线的跌幅，更确认了涨势重启信号，后市多头动能将持续释放，新高突破是核心主线。 摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报1025.74 元/克，涨幅1.39%，最高上探至1031.87元/克，最低触及1011.21元/克。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向看涨 走势。 今日周一(1月12日) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent trends in gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and changing investment regulations, indicating a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1008.54 CNY per gram, up by 0.8% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 4574.1 USD per ounce, increasing by 1.63% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - **Central Bank Purchases**: DBS Bank strategist expects gold prices to reach 5100 USD per ounce by the second half of 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a shift away from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3]. - **Investment Regulations**: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation to 1100 CNY, requiring investors to have a risk rating of C3 or above to open a regular investment account, reflecting the current high volatility in gold prices [4]. - **Global Central Bank Trends**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with a target of 7415 million ounces by the end of 2025. Global central banks have purchased 297 tons of gold in the first 11 months of 2025, with over 70% of surveyed banks planning to increase gold allocations in the next five years [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - **Silver**: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - **Palladium**: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - **Lead**: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - **PTA**: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - **MEG**: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related**: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - **Sugar**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].