Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices may drop to over $30 per barrel by 2027 due to severe market oversupply issues [1] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen by 14% this year, stabilizing at $62.59 per barrel as of November 24 [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring potential peace negotiations in Ukraine, which could lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia and further downward pressure on energy prices [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline from current levels, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaging $53 per barrel in 2026 [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a daily oversupply of 2 million barrels in 2026, indicating a significant market imbalance [2] - The firm suggests that 2026 will mark the end of the current large-scale oil supply shock affecting the market [2]

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing the longest monthly decline in over two years, with traders closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine conflict [1][3] - WTI crude futures are hovering around $59 per barrel, while Brent crude futures are above $63, with U.S. crude contracts expected to record a fourth consecutive monthly decline, marking the longest streak since Q1 2023 [1] - OPEC+ members are likely to maintain their current production freeze until early 2026, with the meeting focusing on a long-term assessment of member production capacities [1] Market Trends - U.S. crude prices have fallen 18% year-to-date, driven by market expectations of a supply surplus following OPEC+'s potential production increases and rising output from non-OPEC+ producers [3] - JPMorgan forecasts a supply surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in the oil market by 2026, decreasing to 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Russian President Putin indicated that a ceasefire proposal from former U.S. President Trump could serve as a basis for future agreements, signaling openness to negotiations [3] - The resolution of the Ukraine conflict could significantly impact the oil market, as Russia is a major oil producer currently facing severe Western sanctions, with any agreement potentially leading to a relaxation of sanctions and a resumption of oil flows to buyers in China, India, and Turkey [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, market concerns about crude oil demand, accelerated production increases by OPEC+, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in crude oil. However, it is difficult to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on November 30th, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly reduce the pressure in Q1 2026. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US refined oil inventory according to EIA data, and an increase in net imports have led to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are difficulties in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 442.8 yuan/ton and a high of 448.1 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,687 to 36,011 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA将2026年美国原油产量上调20万桶/日至1350万桶/日。OPEC月报将第三季度全球石油短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，将2026年全球石油短缺5万桶/日调整为过剩2万桶/日。OPEC月报将2025年全球原油需求增速预测维持在130万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速预测维持在138万桶/日。IEA年度《世界能源展望》中预测石油需求可能将持续增长至2050年，而IEA此前预计全球石油需求将在2030年见顶。IEA月报将2025年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至310万桶/日，将2026年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至250万桶/日；将2025年全球原油需求增速上调7.8万桶/日至78.8万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速上调7.1万桶/日至77万桶/日 [3] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - On the evening of November 26th, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21st, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of November 21st decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near its historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year; diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. Although diesel demand decreased significantly, the increase in gasoline and other oil products led to a 0.41% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成 影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗 斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，不过也有乌方官员否认原则上同意美方和平计划，俄乌 和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比 亚首都的黎波里附近爆 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内 瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中 断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，美国降息前景 不明朗，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地区出口增加，原油仍是供应过剩格局。随着欧 佩克将2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, with Russia being open to the idea, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US yet. The risk premium for gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching the highest level since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US oil rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained, with a forecasted Brent price range of $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US's draft plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [6][9] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Price Data Summary - From November 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil prices fluctuated from $60.74 to $58.84, with a change of $0.78; Brent crude oil prices dropped from $64.89 to $62.22, a decrease of $0.34; Dubai crude oil prices rose from $65.20 to $64.50, with a change of $0.11. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The Tuapse refinery in Russia resumed oil processing on November 21. - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude oil is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to the Brent crude oil spot price (CIF). Some Indian refiners have changed their stance due to the lower prices and are considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers. - The US is preparing to launch a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days. - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $30 - $40 per barrel range in 2027. [3][4] 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report, in the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.728 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25%. The inventories of major refiners and social entities decreased, while those of local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refiners rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated. [4][5][16]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market has experienced fluctuations, with recent price increases attributed to cost support and inventory reduction, but the outlook suggests a potential peak due to weakening demand and rising inventory levels [1][3][6] Group 1: PTA Market Dynamics - Recent PTA prices have risen, reaching a high not seen since early September, driven by cost support and inventory reduction [1] - The operating rate of PTA production facilities decreased by 4 percentage points from November 10 to November 20, while downstream polyester operating rates only fell by about 1 percentage point, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [1][3] - As of November 20, the average PTA processing fee from July to November was 198 yuan/ton, indicating a production loss situation for PTA [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The decline in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical negotiations, is expected to weaken cost support for PTA, leading to a higher probability of a market peak [3][5][6] - The expectation of increased inventory in January and February 2024 is likely to dominate market sentiment, with historical data showing inventory levels between 830,000 to 900,000 tons during this period [3][6] - Despite four months of continuous inventory reduction, the spot market remains significantly lower than futures prices, indicating a lack of tight supply conditions [3][6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The OPEC+ plan to gradually increase oil production from October 2025 is expected to shift the oil supply outlook from anticipated shortages to actual oversupply, further diminishing upward pressure on oil prices [5] - Concerns remain regarding potential geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, particularly involving Venezuela, which could impact oil prices if conflicts arise [5]

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油价迎来年内第十次下调。据国家发展改革委网站最新消息，自11月24 日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油及0号柴油分别下调0.05元、0.06元、0.06元。 卓创资讯数据监测模型显示，本次成品油价下调后，消费者用油成本有所降低。油箱容量在50升的小型 私家车加满一箱油将比此前少花2.5元左右。国内多数地区92号汽油将进入"6元时代"。 原油需求侧整体呈现增速放缓、内部分化的格局。黄柳楠表示，因美国经济数据疲软，全球原油需求增 长预期下调，但增速仍高于2024年。炼油环节成为关键瓶颈，全球炼厂开工率因计划检修、意外停产及 制裁导致的物流问题大幅下滑。与之相反，成品油需求结构性强劲，由于柴油和航空煤油库存处于低 位、工业运输需求旺盛及俄罗斯油品供应中断，裂解价差飙升至多年以来高位。 展望后期油价走势，黄柳楠预计，今年年底到明年年初，Brent、WTI原油价格或考验4月前低，甚至可 能考验50美元/桶，上海原油期价跌幅或小于外盘。建议关注宏观预期潜在反转，届时油价波动或放 大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师曹莹莹表示，俄乌 ...

每经AI快讯，摩根大通预计由于供应过剩，布伦特原油价格可能在2027年跌至30~40美元区间。 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 2 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下 一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA 数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于 历史最高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌克 兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞 拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、 ...