1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The platinum and palladium futures market showed a downward trend today. The platinum 2606 contract fell 1.43% to 549.35 yuan per gram, and the palladium 2606 contract fell 2.18% to 412.70 yuan per gram. The dollar has been running strongly recently, and the recent inflation expectations have suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions have led to high market risk aversion. Fundamentally, platinum inventory remains tight, and the supply side in South Africa is restricted by factors such as power, cost, mine aging, and insufficient capital expenditure. The strategic attractiveness of platinum as an asset has increased. In contrast, although palladium also benefits from geopolitical conflicts and Russian supply risks, its medium - term logic is weaker than that of platinum. Its demand is mainly concentrated in gasoline vehicle catalysts, with a relatively single structure, and it faces dual pressure from the increase in electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution in the long - term. In the short - term, there are many macro - level disturbances, and high market volatility may continue. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 549.35 yuan per gram, a decrease of 7.95 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 412.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.20 yuan. The main contract position of platinum was 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands; the main contract position of palladium was 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 538.93 yuan per gram, a decrease of 13.04 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 384.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 6.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 10.42 yuan per gram, a decrease of 5.09 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 28.70 yuan per gram, an increase of 3.20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9,966 contracts, a decrease of 243 contracts; the CFTC non - commercial long positions of palladium were 3,003 contracts, a decrease of 342 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.95, a decrease of 0.08; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.80%, a decrease of 0.02%. The VIX volatility index increased by 5.74 to 29.49 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Iran's clerical leadership announced the appointment of Mojtaba, the son of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei, as a counter - measure against US President Trump. Iranian President Pezeshkian called on the people to unite and defend the country, stating that Iran will not surrender unconditionally and will not attack neighboring countries unless attacked first. China's gold reserves at the end of February were reported at 74.22 million ounces (about 2,308.5 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from January, marking the 16th consecutive month of increase. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000, with private - sector employment decreasing by 86,000 and government employment decreasing by 6,000. The non - farm payrolls in January were revised to an increase of 126,000, and those in December were revised to a decrease of 17,000 [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On March 9 at 23:00, the US February New York Fed inflation expectations; on March 10 at 18:00, the US February NFIB small business confidence index; on March 10 at 22:00, the US February existing home sales data; on March 11 at 20:30, the US February CPI monthly and annual rates; on March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index; on March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying logic of the current precious metals bull market is global de - dollarization, and this logic remains intact. Long - term funds are not sensitive to short - term price fluctuations, and short - term price drops may stimulate more buying, building a solid bottom [86]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metals prices since the end of January is a healthy technical correction in the long - term bull market, not a trend inflection point or the end of the bull market. After the leverage returns to a reasonable level, prices will re - anchor to fundamentals [86]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, causing the US dollar index to approach 100. In the context of a significant increase in inflation expectations, the attractiveness of precious metals as non - interest - bearing assets has declined, resulting in short - term price pressure and increased volatility [86]. - The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds will continue to decline, which is beneficial to precious metals. The Fed's balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [86]. - The US dollar is likely to enter a medium - to - long - term downward channel due to factors such as the decline in the US's global control ability, the challenges to its hegemony, and the out - of - control debt scale [86]. - The fundamentals support the rise of silver prices. The supply - demand contradiction of silver cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, and the price increase elasticity of silver is expected to be stronger than that of gold, with room for further downward adjustment of the gold - silver ratio [86]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In early 2026, the global gold market accelerated its rise, with London gold breaking through the $5000 mark and reaching nearly $5600. Then, it experienced an epic plunge, with a two - day decline of over $1000 at the end of January. The direct cause was Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman, and the deeper reason was the liquidity crisis caused by the stampede of highly leveraged funds [13]. - In early February, there was a short - term technical rebound, followed by a callback. After the Spring Festival, due to Trump's additional 15% tariff and the tense situation in the Middle East, gold prices rose again. At the end of February, due to the military strike on Iran by the US and Israel, gold prices first rose rapidly and then fell back [13]. - Despite the sharp adjustment since the end of January, the cumulative increase of gold in early 2026 was nearly 20%, continuing the bull market in 2025 and remaining one of the best - performing global assets [13]. Silver - In January, the silver market had an epic rally, driven by factors such as de - dollarization, risk - aversion sentiment, and potential risks in overseas deliveries. However, at the end of January, it experienced a record - breaking one - day decline, mainly due to the liquidity crisis caused by the stampede of highly leveraged funds [15]. - In early February, there was a short - term rebound, followed by a significant callback. After the Spring Festival, silver prices rose again, but at the end of February, the CME's "technical glitch" caused the silver price to turn from rising to falling. The risk of a short - squeeze in March was temporarily relieved [15]. - In February, the cumulative increase in silver prices was almost zero, with a significant decrease in volatility compared to January. The market showed signs of stabilization, but volatility increased again in March. The physical inventory of silver is rapidly decreasing, and the global silver market is expected to have a supply gap for the sixth consecutive year in 2026 [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Middle East Conflict and Market Reaction - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a significant rise and then a fall in the precious metals market. The rise in oil prices put pressure on global risk assets, and the precious metals market initially rose due to its safe - haven property. As the conflict expanded, concerns about the Fed's future interest - rate cut path and the rise in the US dollar index put pressure on precious metals [20]. - The US's series of geopolitical actions have increased global risk - aversion demand, driving up precious metal prices. The risk of the US economy falling into stagflation has increased, which is beneficial to gold [20]. Impact of High Oil Prices - The US - Israel attack on Iran led to a rise in oil prices and the US dollar index. In the short term, it was negative for gold and silver, but in the long term, it meant a further decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds and an increase in inflation expectations, which was beneficial to precious metals [21]. Change in the Pricing Logic of Precious Metals - Historically, the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds was the underlying framework for judging gold prices. However, since 2023, the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has risen together with gold, and the traditional pricing logic is changing. The US's debt, deficit, and the impairment of the US dollar's credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold [23]. Global De - dollarization - The US dollar index has been declining since 2025, and the global trend of de - dollarization is accelerating. Central banks around the world have been increasing their gold holdings, and the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60% [26]. Weakening of the Safe - haven Attributes of the US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds - The US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which were once considered safe - haven assets, have begun to show the characteristics of risky assets. In contrast, the safe - haven attributes of gold and silver have emerged [30]. Expansion of US Treasury Bond Scale - The scale of US Treasury bonds is expanding uncontrollably, leading to a diversion of global risk - aversion funds to precious metals and other assets. If only 1% of foreign holders of US Treasury bonds transfer their funds to gold, the international gold price is expected to exceed $6000 per ounce [32]. Outlook for the US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is in a downward cycle, and it is expected to remain weak and decline in the next five years. A decline in the US dollar index will push up the price of gold [37]. US Stock Market and Precious Metals - The US stock market has shown signs of weakness since the beginning of 2026. If the over - valuation of the US stock market cannot be sustained, funds are expected to flow into the precious metals market [38]. US Economic Situation - The US economic growth rate has slowed down, and the risk of stagflation has increased. Inflation remains above the target value, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is expected to decline, which is beneficial to precious metals [41][44]. Fed's Independence and Policy Expectations - Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence has affected the precious metals market. Although Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman was unexpected, it is difficult to change the Fed's expectation of continuing to cut interest rates, and the Fed's balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [45]. Redefinition of Gold and Silver - Gold and silver are being redefined as anti - inflation and risky assets. Their volatility has increased, and they have become an important part of global asset allocation. In the long term, they have the ability to resist inflation [48]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached 863 tons, remaining at a high historical level but with a slower pace compared to the previous three years. In January 2026, central bank gold purchases were significantly lower than the monthly average in 2025. Some central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, and global de - dollarization is expected to continue, making central bank gold purchases a fundamental demand for gold [53]. Gold Investment Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand being the main driving force. Gold investment demand increased significantly, while jewelry demand declined in volume but increased in value. In 2026, the relaxation of investment regulations in India may bring more funds to the precious metals market [56]. Silver Supply - The supply of silver is rigidly constrained. The growth of mineral silver and recycled silver is limited, and the supply elasticity of the silver mining end is small. In 2026, the growth rate of silver supply is expected to be about 1.5% [59]. Silver Demand - Industrial demand accounts for nearly 60% of total silver demand. In 2025, total silver demand decreased slightly, and in 2026, it is expected to remain basically unchanged. The AI field will be an important source of incremental demand for silver [63]. Silver Supply - Demand Gap - The silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, and it is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and the available inventory is extremely limited, which is beneficial to the rise of silver prices [66]. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. Currently, the gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 50, lower than the historical normal level. If the monetary attribute of silver returns, the gold - silver ratio may fall below 20 [67][68]. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - As of March 3, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold decreased, while the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, increased. For silver, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX decreased, and the holdings of SLV increased. The spot market for both gold and silver is more optimistic than the futures market [72][76]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to try to buy gold and silver on dips. For Shanghai silver, the first support range is 19,000 - 20,000 yuan per kilogram, and the upper pressure range is 24,000 - 25,000 yuan per kilogram. For Shanghai gold, the first support range is 1050 - 1100 yuan per gram, and the upper pressure range is 1250 - 1300 yuan per gram. In the options market, one can try to buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options on gold and silver [85]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metals prices is a healthy technical correction. The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains unchanged, and the market is expected to start a new round of upward cycle as risk - aversion sentiment intensifies [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].

Impact on Inflation - A 50% increase in oil prices could raise the US CPI by approximately 0.6% to 1.1%, PPI by 2.2% to 6.7%, PCE by 0.5% to 1.0%, and core PCE by 0.3% to 0.5%[30][34][31] - The core PCE, which is crucial for Federal Reserve decisions, may struggle to return to the 2% target due to rising oil prices, potentially remaining around 3.0% by December 2025[37] Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve's response to rising oil prices is complex, balancing inflation and growth pressures, with three key variables influencing their decisions: the short-term level of oil prices, the persistence of price increases, and the relative pressures of inflation versus growth[39][43] - Historical data shows that during oil price surges, the Fed has sometimes maintained low interest rates, indicating a non-linear response to inflationary pressures[43] Market Implications - In a scenario where oil prices stabilize at $90 per barrel, the US stock market may shift towards value and dividend stocks, moving away from high-growth tech stocks[49] - US Treasury yields are expected to rise due to increased inflation uncertainty and expectations of continued Fed tightening, with historical trends indicating a correlation between rising oil prices and higher bond yields[50] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar may experience short-term strength but faces long-term downward pressure due to geopolitical risks and a potential shift away from dollar dominance[51] - Gold is likely to become a more attractive asset in a high oil price environment, as it serves as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation[52] Risks - Geopolitical tensions could escalate unexpectedly, leading to uncontrolled oil price surges and increased global inflationary pressures[58] - There is a risk of a US debt crisis if high interest rates persist, potentially undermining confidence in US Treasury securities[58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the significant shortfall in the US February non - farm payrolls and the continuous surge in crude oil prices, the risks in the employment market and inflation have risen simultaneously, leading to an increase in overseas stagflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The current market only prices in one interest rate cut in September this year. The downward revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar index have short - term suppression on precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up. Despite the short - term strengthening of the US dollar index, market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are still intensifying. With the reconstruction of the global political and economic order and the diversification of global central bank reserve assets, the de - dollarization process continues. Therefore, considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium resonate with both industrial and financial attributes, following the overall sector trend but with relatively larger fluctuations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1155.06, yesterday's closing price was 1144.14, with a decrease of 10.92 and a decline rate of 0.95%. The持仓 volume was 112,216 and the trading volume was 83,801. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1152.000, yesterday's closing price was 1140.800, with a decrease of 11.200 and a decline rate of 0.97%. The持仓 volume was 113,842 and the trading volume was 272,430 [2] - **Silver Futures**: For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 21369, yesterday's closing price was 21533, with an increase of 164 and an increase rate of 0.77%. The持仓 volume was 178,177 and the trading volume was 356,791. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 21639, yesterday's closing price was 21740, with an increase of 101 and an increase rate of 0.47%. The持仓 volume was 133,508 and the trading volume was 305,817 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1148.56, yesterday's closing price was 1138.46, with a decrease of 10.10 and a decline rate of 0.88%. The previous day's closing price of London gold was 5084.63, yesterday's closing price was 5171.80, with an increase of 87.17 and an increase rate of 1.71% [2] - **Silver Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21068, yesterday's closing price was 21350, with an increase of 282 and an increase rate of 1.34%. The previous day's closing price of London silver was 82.28, yesterday's closing price was 84.48, with an increase of 2.19 and an increase rate of 2.67% [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 105,033 kg, unchanged from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX gold is 33,081,878 troy ounces, a decrease of 18,415 troy ounces from the previous value [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 255,952 kg, a decrease of 16,769 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX silver is 349,145,895 troy ounces, a decrease of 2,196,030 troy ounces from the previous value [2] Related Derivatives - **Index and Yield**: The current value of the US dollar index is 98.95, a decrease of 0.08 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index is 6,740.02, a decrease of 90.69 from the previous value. The current yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 4.15%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous value. The current price of Brent crude oil is 93.32, an increase of 9.01 from the previous value. The current US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8981, a decrease of 0.0022 from the previous value [2] - **ETF and Net Position**: The current position of SPDR Gold ETF is 1,073 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from the previous value. The current position of SLV Silver ETF is 15,762 tons, a decrease of 48 tons from the previous value. The current net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 160,145, an increase of 968 from the previous value. The current net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 23,338, an increase of 1,078 from the previous value [2] Macro News - Iran's Assembly of Experts determined Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran early on March 9. Mojtaba Khamenei, born in 1969, is the second son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [3] - US President Trump said that the oil price will drop rapidly after the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated, and the cost is negligible for the US and the world in exchange for security and peace [3] - According to US media, the Trump administration is preparing an economic agreement with Cuba. The details and exact time are unclear, but it may include relaxing restrictions on Americans traveling to Havana. Trump can relax such restrictions without congressional approval. The discussion also involves providing an exit mechanism for President Miguel Díaz - Canel, allowing the Castro family to stay on the island, and transactions related to ports, energy, and tourism. The US government has proposed the possibility of lifting some sanctions [3] - US Energy Secretary Wright said there is no plan to target Iran's oil, gas, or energy industries. If there are Israeli strikes, they are targeting local fuel depots, and the US goal does not target energy infrastructure [3] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 17.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.7%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in June is 41.5% [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint After the Spring Festival, the precious metals market had a strong start with significant increases in gold and silver prices. As of February 25, the weekly increase of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 3.69%, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 16.41%. The reasons include weak US economic data leading to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, tense US - Iran relations, and fluctuating US tariff policies. Silver had a larger increase due to industrial demand and a smaller market size. The current volatility of gold and silver has significantly decreased compared to before the festival, and the right - side allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent, so it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Economic Data Weak, Rate - Cut Expectations Still Exist During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas precious metals trended upward. In February, data showed that the US January CPI unexpectedly slowed, with the year - on - year CPI dropping to 2.4% (below the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%), and the core CPI dropping to 2.5%. The Q4 2025 GDP growth rate significantly slowed to 1.4%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.4% and the expected 2.8%. The February 2026 US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were both lower than expected and previous values. Weak economic data is conducive to the Fed's subsequent rate - cut operations and the rise of precious metals [4]. 3.2 Tense US - Iran Relations, Frequent Tariff Disturbances On the US - Iran front, on February 23, Iran warned that any attack on it would be considered aggression. The US is carrying out a large - scale military deployment in the Middle East, and the conflict probability has increased, raising market risk - aversion sentiment. However, the probability of a full - scale war is extremely low. On the tariff front, the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were invalid, but Trump quickly announced a 10% tariff on global goods starting February 24 for 150 days and then planned to raise it to 15%. The erratic tariff policy provides strong hedging support for precious metals [7][8]. 3.3 Strong Central Bank Gold Purchases, Silver Inventory Depletion In 2025, global central banks' gold - purchasing demand remained strong. In Q4 2025, central banks' net gold purchases increased by 6% quarter - on - quarter to 230 tons, and the annual total was 863 tons. Poland's central bank was the largest official gold buyer in 2025, and China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months since November 2024. In 2025, global gold ETF holdings reached a record high of 4025 tons, with significant inflows from North America and Asia. For silver, as of February 24, 2026, COMEX registered silver inventory dropped to 88.19 million ounces, and total inventory decreased by 31% since October 2025. China's export controls and long - term supply shortages support the silver price [13][17][19]. 3.4 Future Outlook: Upward Trend Assured In the long term, factors such as the de - dollarization process, continuous central bank gold purchases, and non - convergent fiscal monetization support the long - term upward trend of precious metals. In the short term, geopolitical and tariff factors support the strong performance of gold and silver. Silver has a larger increase due to industrial demand. It is recommended to focus on the US - Iran situation and US employment and PPI data. Currently, the volatility of gold and silver has decreased, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment for various varieties, with "cautiously bullish" for many including stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), crude oil, etc., and "cautiously bearish" for some like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, there are policies like GDP growth expectations and a national - level merger fund, along with a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts increase commodity uncertainties. Different commodities have their own influencing factors and price trends. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Chief Comment - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, the NDRC expects GDP growth to exceed 6 trillion yuan this year and a national - level merger fund is set up. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity uncertainties, with energy and precious metals affected. [1] 3.2. Key Varieties Crude Oil - Due to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, cutting off oil supply and pushing up crude - oil futures. There are a series of supply disruptions and storage crises, and some countries have cut production. [2][12] Gold - Short - term: The Fed's lower - than - expected interest - rate cut expectations and a stronger US dollar suppress precious metals. Long - term: Multiple factors like geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization support the upward trend of gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall trend with larger fluctuations. [3][18] Methanol - Methanol night - trading rose 5.43%. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is at a medium - high level historically and is rising. [4][13] 3.3. Variety Views - A table shows the possibility judgment of "cautiously bearish" or "cautiously bullish" for various varieties, but it is a possibility judgment rather than a definite one. [6] 3.4. Main News Focus of the Day International News - Israel warns about Iran's leadership change, threatening those involved in the election. [7] Domestic News - At a press conference, officials from the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the NDRC announced more active fiscal policies, interest - rate regulation, and the establishment of a national - level merger fund. The central bank will use multiple monetary policy tools. [7] Industry News - China's gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month in February. [7] 3.5. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the price, change amount, and change rate of various overseas market varieties such as the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. from March 5th to March 6th. [8] 3.6. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Stock Indices - US stock indices fell, while domestic stock indices rebounded. As annual and first - quarter reports are released, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, stock indices will return to a structural market. [9] Bonds - Bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal this week did not significantly tighten the money market. Overseas factors and domestic policies support bond - futures prices in the short term. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Persian - Gulf conflict disrupts oil supply, leading to a significant increase in crude - oil futures prices. [12] Methanol - Methanol prices rose at night. The operating load of related plants decreased, and coastal inventory increased. [4][13] Rubber - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the price of crude oil, which in turn supports the price of rubber. The supply is seasonally low, and the demand is expected to recover after the holiday, so the rubber price is expected to be strong. [14] Polyolefins - Polyolefins continued the bullish trend on Friday. The increase in international crude - oil prices boosts polyolefins. [15] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures closed up, with inventory increasing after the holiday. Soda - ash futures rebounded, and the supply is high with inventory accumulation, facing inventory - digestion pressure. [16][17] Metals Precious Metals - Short - term suppression and long - term upward trend due to various factors such as US employment data, inflation, and de - dollarization. [3][18] Copper - Copper prices fell at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may fluctuate in a range. [19] Zinc - Zinc prices rose at night. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. [20] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The conflict affects aluminum production and transportation in the Middle East, and the long - term low inventory and supply constraints support the price. [21] Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply increased, and demand weakened in the short term. However, with the resumption of work, the demand is expected to improve, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts. [22] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strong at night. Brazil's soybean production forecast was lowered, and supply disruptions in the Middle East supported US soybean prices, so the domestic protein - meal price is expected to be strongly volatile. [23] Oils and Fats - Oil prices continued to be strong at night. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline, and geopolitical risks and bio - fuel expectations support the price, which is expected to remain high and volatile. [24] Pigs - The pig market is weak, with sufficient supply and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out. [25] Shipping Index Container Shipping to Europe - The EC index fell on Friday. The SCFI European - line price rose slightly. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the shipping market, and the freight rate will enter a period of greater volatility. [26]

2026年03月09日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属反弹，国际金价涨 1.73%至 5170 美元/盎司，国际银价涨 2.59%至 84.33 美元/盎司。 基本面：美国 2 月非农就业人口净减少 9.2 万，远低于预期，创 2020 年以来第二次单月负增长；失业率升至 4.4%。BLS 同步下修前值，合计调降 6.9 万人；中东局势继续紧张，阿联酋、科威特宣布减产；哈梅内伊之 子接任伊朗最高领袖；中国 2 月末黄金储备环比增加 3 万盎司，连续 16 个月增持；贝莱德限制 260 亿美元基 金赎回，黑石 BCRED 遭创纪录 7.9%赎回申请。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 2 吨；COMEX 黄金库存为 1029.4 吨，+1.86 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105 吨，维持不变；SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1081 吨，维持不变；伦敦黄 金库存 1 月底 9155.8 吨，12 月底为 9103 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 10926.7 吨，-27.3 吨；上期所白银库存 为 272.72 吨，-22.1 吨；iShares 白银 E ...

观 消 3、美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预 期。美联储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。 息 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年3月3日收盘，铂、钯较1月末高点分别回落21.4%、19.7%，较2月24日修复高 点亦出现显著回撤，前期反弹空间基本回吐，尚未收复年初高位。核心扰动为特朗普提名前美联 储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by various factors such as the Iran situation, and investors need to be cautious and pay attention to market fluctuations [6][9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year and 2 - year contracts showing small changes. The central bank conducted 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan. The US February employment data was poor. The central bank governor said that multiple monetary policy tools would be used. The market is expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iran situation may cause significant market fluctuations. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold prices fell and silver prices rose. China's foreign exchange and gold reserves have been increasing. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold. Due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market may fluctuate significantly, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, prices are dominated by supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downward trend continues, and the market is in a demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased. The price lacks upward momentum but the valuation is low. Technically, the short - term trend may be weak. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. During the key meetings, steel mills' production was restricted, suppressing demand. Supply has changed, and port inventories are at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak. Technically, it may test the previous low. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the domestic supply - demand pattern is limited. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, while the demand is weak. For coke, the supply is stable, but the demand is under pressure due to steel mill restrictions. Technically, the medium - term trend may be oscillatory. Investors can look for low - level long - entry opportunities with proper position management [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak, with an overall surplus. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward due to the ongoing Middle - East war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The situation in Iran and the reduction of production by Middle - East oil companies support oil prices. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities in the crude oil main contract [22][23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed price increases. The downstream factories are resuming production, and the demand for replenishment has increased, and the inventory trend has changed from rising to falling. The geopolitical conflict has strengthened the cost support. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. Some devices are planned for maintenance in March. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the recovery stage. The inventory is in the post - festival accumulation cycle. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber and 20 - rubber main contracts rose. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and the demand from tire enterprises is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the pre - festival accumulation trend. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [32][33][34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose and hit the daily limit at night. The core driver is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the seasonal off - season of domestic spring demand. The supply has increased, and the demand is at a low level. The cost is under pressure, and the inventory is in the accumulation state. The market is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state [35][36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The core driver is the geopolitical conflict and the international supply - demand mismatch. Iran's factory shutdowns and the impact on the shipping of fertilizers in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp increase in international prices. China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state, and in the long - term, the pattern is loose [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The domestic and Asian PX loads decreased. The downstream polyester and terminal industries are gradually resuming work. The cost is supported by the increase in crude oil prices. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage, and the price center may move up [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The PTA processing fee increased. The supply has adjusted, and the demand from the polyester industry is increasing. The cost is supported by the increase in crude oil and PX prices. The price is expected to rise with PX and oil prices. It is recommended to operate at low levels and pay attention to risk control [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the inventory increased. The demand from the downstream polyester industry is increasing. The cost is supported by the geopolitical situation, and the price may oscillate upward, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [41][42][43]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The loom load is slightly increasing. The low inventory and strong cost provide support. The market is mainly trading on the cost - end logic [44]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The processing fee has adjusted. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from the downstream beverage industry is increasing. The cost is strongly supported. The market is expected to follow the cost - end trend and be in a strong - oscillatory state [45][46]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash main contract rose. The production is stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. Some enterprises are planned for maintenance. The price may have short - term fluctuations due to the energy - related logic, but the fundamental support is lacking [47][48]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The industry is in the capacity - reduction stage, and the inventory is increasing. The demand recovery is slow. The cost and profit pressure may force the exit of old - fashioned production capacity. It is necessary to pay attention to the cold - repair of production lines and other factors [49][50]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is increasing. The downstream demand is in the recovery stage. The sharp rise in the price is related to the impact of the Middle - East situation on PVC production. It is necessary to be vigilant against the "roller - coaster" market risk [51][52]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend. The supply is relatively stable, and the price is oscillating. The supply - side news has limited impact, and the downstream demand has not followed up. The inventory pressure suppresses the pulp price [53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium ore is in a tight - balance state, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the employment market in the US is weak. The supply of electrolytic copper is limited, and the demand is seasonally improving. The copper price is expected to oscillate within a range [56][57]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts rose. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the cost is supported by the geopolitical conflict. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be in a strong - running state [58][59][60]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The production of refined zinc is increasing, and the import is in a net inflow state. The downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately. The supply recovery is faster than the demand, and the zinc price may be under pressure and oscillate [61][62]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract was flat. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The supply - demand mismatch supports the lead price, and it is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64][65]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose slightly. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo may affect the price. The supply situation has improved, and the demand has a complex pattern. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [66]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. The US - Iran conflict may affect the price. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine is expected to be significantly reduced, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The market is in an oversupply state [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The soybean import is slowing down, and the oil - mill profit is low. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is improving. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and wait and see for soybean oil after the price leaves the low - cost range [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and the export has declined. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider positive - spread opportunities [70][71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The Middle - East conflict has an impact on the vegetable - oil market. China has adjusted the tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to have a bullish view on rapeseed oil [73][74]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated, and the external market rose slightly. The new - year global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the consumption is expected to increase. The domestic cotton inventory is at a high level, and the future planting area is expected to decrease. The medium - and long - term cotton price is expected to be strong [76][77]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and the external market rose. India has adjusted its sugar production forecast. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of crude oil price increases on the overall commodity market [78][79][80]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures declined. The spot market is stable, and it is in the consumption off - season. The inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong [81][82][83]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract rose. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. The number of breeding sows is still at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [84][85]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg production is at a high level, and the breeding profit is low. The egg supply in March is expected to remain high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contracts [86]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The North - port corn inventory is low, and the demand for corn ethanol is expected to increase. The domestic corn production and demand are basically balanced, and the import is expected to remain low. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market [87][88]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The wood transportation is affected by the geopolitical conflict, and the cost has increased. The supply and demand have not improved significantly. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is necessary to pay attention to the external price, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [89][90].