小摩认为目前的情况大致仍接近这一水平，不包括因政府雇员被临时休假而带来的失业率短期上升。最 突出的数据是ADP的私营部门就业估算。10月份ADP就业人数反弹至增加4.2万人，而9月份为减少2.9万 人，8月份为减少3000人。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年11月的第一个星期五，美国劳工统计局因政府停摆再次缺席"非农日"。没有 官方就业报告，小摩整理了来自其他就业数据的信号，总体来看，自9月以来变化不大。截至8月，私营 部门就业人数的三个月平均增长为2.9万人，失业率为4.32%。 虽然ADP在预测非农月度就业变化方面可能存在较大偏差，但其样本量庞大，且今年累计的就业增长与 非农数据总体吻合。未来，ADP将在美东时间每周二上午发布一个四周平均的就业变化数据。 小摩表示，考虑到就业数据通常存在波动性，10月份的读数也可以被视为"稳定"。但由于此前四个月中 有三个月为负值，任何正增长都对"就业市场正在走弱"的说法构成反驳。 该行指出，持续申请失业救济金的人数则更令人担忧。尽管最近几周的轻微上升可能是季节性因素残 留，但其同比增长速度并未放缓，通常保持在4%以上，这表明失业率正在逐步上升。 来自州政府级的基础数据显 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a deterioration in public perception of the job market in October, while inflation expectations have slightly decreased [1][2] - The New York Fed's survey coincides with a similar trend observed in the University of Michigan's survey, where 71% of respondents expect unemployment to rise in the next year, more than double the rate from the previous year [1] - The survey results suggest increasing concerns about the job market amid signs of weakness, which may exacerbate internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [1] Group 2 - Consumer price inflation expectations for the next year have decreased from 3.4% in September to 3.2% in October, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable around 3% [2] - There is a mixed outlook on commodity prices, with expectations for declines in gasoline and food prices, but an increase in anticipated medical cost inflation to the highest level since February 2023 [2] - The probability of higher unemployment in the next year has risen to 43%, the highest since April, indicating a growing concern among consumers about job security [2] - Perceptions of household financial conditions continue to worsen, with more respondents indicating their financial situation is worse than a year ago and expecting further deterioration [2] - There is an improvement in the perception of credit availability, with the proportion of households believing loans are harder to obtain dropping to the lowest level since 2022 [2]

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market showed strong performance in October, with a net addition of 66,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement [1][2] - The job growth significantly exceeded market expectations, which anticipated a loss of 20,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% [1] - The increase in employment was primarily driven by part-time positions, while full-time jobs remained relatively unchanged. The private sector added 73,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in hiring intentions among businesses [1] Group 2 - Job growth was predominantly concentrated in Ontario, which accounted for 55,000 of the new positions, representing over 80% of the national job increase [2] - Average hourly wages rose by 3.5% year-on-year to CAD 37.06, although the growth rate is still below the peak wage increases seen during inflationary periods [2] - The Canadian job market has experienced significant volatility this year, with a total of 127,000 jobs added in September and October, offsetting a loss of 106,000 jobs in July and August [2]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1177.18 tons on November 6, a decrease of 1.07 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at 3989.20 USD/ounce on November 6, down 0.16%, with an intraday high of 4028.70 USD/ounce and a low of 3973.20 USD/ounce [1][2] Group 2 - Despite large-scale layoffs announced by several companies, the U.S. labor market shows signs of stability [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 1 increased to 229,140, a slight rise of 9,620 from the previous week [2] - Due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, official employment statistics have been interrupted, leading the market to rely more on private data for economic assessment [2]

Core Insights - The potential ruling by the Supreme Court on tariffs could lead to a short-term positive impact on equities, particularly for consumer companies that have not yet recovered from pandemic-related challenges [2][10] - The current bond yields are perceived to be low, with expectations that they should be closer to 4.5% for the 10-year yield, raising concerns about government revenue from tariffs and the overall deficit [4][8] - The contribution of tariff revenue to the government budget is considered overstated, as the impact on corporate profits and subsequent tax revenues must also be taken into account [5][8] Tariffs and Market Impact - The removal of tariffs could be viewed as a tax cut, potentially benefiting the market and consumer companies significantly [6][10] - There is skepticism regarding the sustainability of tariff revenue, especially in light of the overall government spending of $7 trillion, indicating that the tariffs may not significantly affect the budget [7][8] - The discussion around tariffs has been ongoing for several months, with indications that the Supreme Court may rule them illegal, which could drastically change the market landscape [9][10] Job Market and Economic Indicators - Recent job market data indicates the largest drop in layoffs in October in 20 years, suggesting a significant slowdown in the job market [11] - Despite the negative job market indicators, some high-frequency data suggests that the economy may be moving past the worst phase and approaching slightly positive conditions [12][13] - The overall assessment of the American economy indicates a prolonged slowdown, with revisions and measurement issues complicating the understanding of the current state [12][13]

Group 1 - Concerns regarding the job market have increased, leading to a renewed stock-market selloff [1]

美联储哈玛克：留意到就业市场已降温，但近期数据仍显示就业市场状况良好 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed labor market indicator has been introduced to provide alternative insights into the labor market amidst the absence of government data, indicating stability in the job market despite some concerns about payroll job creation [1][5][6] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.36% in October, with a 40% probability of being higher and a 20% probability of being lower [2] - The labor market indicators suggest stability, with low hiring and low firing rates, which is atypical for the beginning of recessions [9][10][18] - Total payroll job creation has shown substantial deterioration, raising questions about its reliability as a business cycle indicator [6][7] Economic Environment - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and their impact on businesses, contributing to a cautious outlook on the job market [11][14] - Despite strong GDP numbers and consumer spending, there are concerns about potential job market weakening, particularly for new graduates facing hiring challenges [15][17] Inflation and Rate Cuts - The lack of private sector information on inflation during the government shutdown raises concerns about potential inflation issues developing unnoticed [13] - The current environment of low hiring and low firing may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding rate cuts [12][13]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月6日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 917.80 | 0.79% | 238433 | 137883 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，11月6日上海黄金现货价格报价913.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（917.80元/克）贴水4元/ 克。 美国就业市场在经历两个月连续下滑后出现企稳迹象，美国10月ADP就业人数增加4.2万人，大幅超过 预期的3万人，也扭转了上月修正后减少3.2万人（本次修正为2.9万人）的局面。 美国就业市场在经历两个月连续下滑后出现企稳迹象，但整体劳动力需求仍在放缓，薪资增长持续停 滞，这为美联储12月是否继续降息增添不确定性。 亚马逊、星巴克和塔吉特等大型企业近期宣布的高调裁员计划，仍在加剧市场对就业前景的担忧。尽管 初请失业金人数总体保持低位，但低裁员环境存在恶化风险，可能在未来数月推高失业率。 美联储上周连续第二次会议降息后，主席鲍威尔表示，他看到劳动力市场正在"非常缓慢地降温，但仅 此而已 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 6 is 639,940 kilograms, with a decrease of 16,230 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 11,297 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,443 yuan per kilogram, a low of 11,255 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 11,427 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 1.99% [1] Group 2 - The ISM services index for October expanded as expected, rising from 50 in September to 52.4, indicating improved business activity [2] - The "prices paid" sub-index of the ISM services index reached its highest level since October 2022 at 70, suggesting rising inflation [2] - ADP reported that private sector hiring exceeded expectations, indicating a strong job market, although initial market reactions were negative due to risk aversion limiting silver price increases [2][3]