美联储古尔斯比：疲弱的就业市场将导致降息。与此同时，通胀正朝着错误方向发展。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images The Fed continues to emphasize that it currently has no "risk-free" path. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is pulling the central bank's policy in two different directions, as the job market weakens while inflation remains elevated. The central bank has started cutting interest rates, but could change its strategy if inflation gets worse. Two other Fed policymakers spoke Tuesday, with one advocating for gradual rate cuts and the other for more dec ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank is in a “challenging situation” with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market.In comments prepared for delivery to Rhode Island’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking a new surge of in ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with further cuts anticipated in October and December [1][2] - The decision to lower rates is driven by rising unemployment, which increased to 4.3% in August, the highest in the current cycle, alongside a significant drop in non-farm payroll growth [2][3] - The Fed's focus has shifted from stable employment to addressing the risks of rising unemployment, indicating a more dovish monetary policy stance [2][4] Group 2 - The Fed's internal consensus on the need for easing is evident, with only one member dissenting, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [4][6] - The economic outlook suggests a projected unemployment rate of 4.5% by year-end, with further declines expected in the following years, reinforcing the likelihood of continued monetary easing [4][6] - The capital markets reacted predictably to the rate cut, with the stock market showing limited movement as the news was already priced in, although ongoing rate cuts may support a stronger market foundation [7][13] Group 3 - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to lead to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, although this is not indicative of the yuan's strength compared to other currencies [10][11] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in China may lower mortgage rates to around 2.7%-2.8%, but the impact on the housing market is expected to be limited due to broader economic concerns [14][16] - The overall sentiment in the housing market remains pessimistic, with external capital unlikely to flow into the market under current conditions, indicating a disconnect between rate cuts and housing recovery [16][17]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆周一重申支持上周的降息决定，但警告称进一步宽松的空间有限。在联邦公 开市场委员会（FOMC）将基准利率下调25个基点后不到一周，这位美联储官员强调，尽管就业市场风 险上升，但通胀压力仍需警惕。 穆萨莱姆在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的演讲中表示，上周的降息是"为支持充分就业、防止劳动力市场进一 步疲软而采取的预防性举措"。 穆萨勒姆表示，最近的数据显示，就业的下行风险已经上升，但他补充说，他仍然认为通胀可能保持在 美联储2%的目标之上。这意味着政策利率需要维持在足够高的水平，以抵消物价上涨的风险。 他补充说，关税正在加剧通胀，尽管影响低于预期，但随着企业调整价格，全面影响可能还要几个月才 能感受到。 "货币政策应继续倾向于防止通胀持续高于目标，" 穆萨勒姆表示。尽管失业率可能存在风险，但除非 这些风险开始成为现实，否则"过度强调劳动力市场……可能弊大于利。" 与此同时，他指出，消费者仍在支出，经济增长放缓但仍接近趋势水平， 繁荣的股市和较低的信贷息 差继续支撑着经济。 在这种背景下，穆萨勒姆表示，政策制定者应该谨慎行事，因为当前经过通胀调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. However, due to the coexistence of inflationary upside and employment downside risks, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding interest rate forecasts. Powell indicated that this is a risk management-type rate cut, and his hawkish remarks have brought uncertainty to the rate cut path in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the market still places high bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly. [3] - In the short term, affected by the realization of the Fed's rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar index, precious metals will experience a brief correction. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, it is expected that the transmission of tariffs to inflation will gradually become apparent. If inflation significantly heats up and the employment market shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year, it may affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm, which will be negative for precious metals. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the investment demand for precious metals from central banks and investors remains strong, providing bottom support for precious metals prices. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of Shanghai Gold is long-term bullish, short-term oscillating, and investors should pay attention to correction opportunities. In the medium term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai Silver is short-term oscillating, and in the medium term, it is recommended to buy on dips. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 0.33% to $3663.15 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.05% to $3719.40 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 0.47% to 830.56 yuan per gram, and the price of Gold A (T+D) decreased by 0.52% to 826.00 yuan per gram. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 1.41% to 3946.35 million ounces, and the total COMEX gold position increased by 1.29% to 520,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.78% to 266,400 lots. The spot price of silver in the London market decreased by 0.06% to $42.24 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price rose by 1.60% to $43.37 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 0.64% to 9971.00 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Silver A (T+D) decreased by 0.94% to 9940.00 yuan per kilogram. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.64% to 52404.33 million ounces, and the total COMEX silver position increased by 3.99% to 163,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX silver decreased by 4.45% to 51,500 lots [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio fell to around 83 last week, and the overseas gold-silver ratio fell to around 85, still higher than its long-term historical average. After the Fed cut interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, precious metals prices rose and then corrected due to profit-taking by investors [7]. - **Domestic-Overseas Price Spread**: The domestic-overseas price spreads of gold and silver both decreased compared to the previous week. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Dollar Index**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index plunged and remained at a low level, boosting precious metals prices. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals prices oscillated strongly [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: After the Fed announced its September interest rate decision, the real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds declined. However, subsequent hawkish remarks by Powell and a decrease in the number of unemployment benefit claims announced on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the weakening trend of the labor market, causing the real yields of US Treasury bonds to rebound [16]. - **Key US Economic Data**: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The PPI was 2.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, and -0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time in four months. The core PCE price index in July increased by 2.88% year-on-year, and the PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the ISM services PMI was 52. Retail sales in August increased by 0.63% month-on-month. The ADP employment number in August increased by only 54,000, and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial unemployment benefit claims last week decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 [20][24][27]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Factors**: The Fed's September interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish. The market still has high expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Sino-US negotiations have made progress, while the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to disrupt the market [34]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the speculative net long position of CMX gold increased by 47,000 lots to 266,400 lots, while the speculative net long position of CMX silver decreased by 24,000 lots to 51,500 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased last week [38]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 3946.35 million ounces, a 1.41% month-on-month increase, and the COMEX silver inventory was 52404.33 million ounces, a 0.64% month-on-month decrease [42]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In September 2025, the global gold reserve increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons. China's gold reserve increased by 1.87 tons to 2300.40 tons, the 10th consecutive month of increase. In the second quarter of 2025, the global total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with strong industrial demand for silver [45]. This Week's Key Focus - **Fed Officials' Speeches**: Fed officials will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook this week. Pay attention to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [46]. - **Key US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index for August and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September will be released this week. Pay attention to the US inflation situation [46].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%[1] - This is the first rate cut since December 2024, aligning with market expectations[1] - The FOMC's statement emphasized a slowdown in economic activity, removing previous references to net export volatility[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The statement noted that employment growth has slowed, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low[2] - Recent employment data showed August non-farm payrolls below expectations, contributing to the decision to cut rates[2] - Current inflation rates are above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with core PCE prices showing upward pressure[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with a significant increase in the number of officials anticipating three cuts this year[4] - The median federal funds rate projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, reflecting expectations of ongoing economic pressure[4] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" to balance employment and inflation amid a complex economic landscape[4]

汇通财经APP讯——在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立 分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强 调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示，这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显 出当前利率政策的分歧。米兰支持更大幅度的降息，与美联储主流共识形成鲜明对比，而明尼亚波利斯 联储主席卡什卡利则认为米兰的上任不过是常规人事变动，并对美联储的公众信任表示乐观。整个事件 反映出美国经济政策在就业、通胀和政治影响之间的微妙平衡，值得投资者密切关注。 米兰的独立政策宣言 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示， 自己将基于对经济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓 就职，并在会上支持降息50个基点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自己的立场与众不同，并 承诺将在周一的发言中详细解释背后的经济逻辑和计算过程。他认为，当前的利率水平距离"中性"还有 较大差距，经济中不存在明显的通胀风险，尤其是在严格移民政策的影响下，住房需求将受到抑制，从 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美元指数因美联储预计 2026 年之后大幅放缓降息步伐以及英国央行放 缓缩表步伐、日本央行按兵不动等信息而连续三个交易日回升，但市场乐观评估 特朗普政府压力下的美联储降息进程，伦敦黄金在 3630 美元/盎司附近企稳小幅 反弹。4 月下旬至 8 月份金价横盘震荡消化高估值压力，但美联储降息东风助推 金价于 9 月初突破阻力而开启新一轮上涨趋势，本轮涨势或延续至 2026 年春夏之 交，建议投资者继续持多头思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者可适当 ...

利率点阵图本意是与市场沟通决策透明度，结果让大家看清会议室里毫无头绪。 9月份议息会议不是美联储主席鲍威尔主持的，美国总统特朗普在美联储会议室墙上投下肥胖的身影。斯蒂芬·米兰作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，由特朗普 提名以停薪留职的身份经国会确认，成为美联储理事参加本次会议。特朗普安插米兰，提出要解雇美联储理事库克，财长贝森特公开批评货币政策，透露启 动下任主席人选面试。市场心领神会地把降息25个基点概率交易到了100%。 米兰首秀对降息25个基点投出一张反对票。政策点阵图上有一个黑点落在3%以下，预测年内还要降息100个基点。这个黑点远离落在3.75%附近的十几个黑 点，让点阵图形成了一个感叹号。坊间猜测这个黑点就是米兰。 7月份会议之后就业数据大幅调整，连续几个月的用工岗位数从原先15万上下被调低到只有2万多。失业率升高到4.3%，就业目标压力增大。另一边通胀并 未明显回落，居民消费甚至好于预期。金融市场在AI情绪和降息预期推动下创出新高。经济预测（SEP）调高今年GDP增长到1.6%（明年1.8%），失业率维 持在4.5%（明年4.4%），通胀PCE维持在3.0%（明年2.6%），政策利率降低25点到3.6 ...