Core Viewpoint - The onset of winter heating season in northern China has prompted energy companies to fully activate their winter supply modes to ensure energy security during peak demand periods [1][2]. Energy Supply and Infrastructure - A liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier with a capacity of 69,000 tons has docked in Qingdao, marking the seventh LNG shipment received at the station since October [2]. - The Tianjin LNG receiving station has improved unloading efficiency and storage capacity through a "dual-ship docking" operation model, achieving an average daily gas output of approximately 10 million cubic meters, with peak capacity reaching 58 million cubic meters [2]. - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has arranged a 3.7% year-on-year increase in natural gas supply resources for the winter heating season, accounting for about 60% of the domestic supply [3]. - The national gas pipeline network has seen a daily gas transmission volume exceeding 72 million cubic meters, reflecting an over 8% year-on-year growth [6]. Storage and Supply Readiness - Various gas storage facilities have completed their annual injection tasks ahead of schedule, with the Liaohe gas storage facility in Northeast China starting its winter supply mode, holding over 3 billion cubic meters of gas [7][8]. - The Tarim Oilfield's four gas storage facilities have achieved a record injection volume of 1.2 billion cubic meters, ensuring sufficient supply for the winter [8]. Green Energy Initiatives - The winter heating season has incorporated more green energy sources, including industrial waste heat and geothermal energy projects, contributing to lower carbon emissions [9][10]. - The "Liao Heat into Jinan" project utilizes industrial waste heat to provide heating, capable of meeting the heating needs of 1 million square meters while reducing coal consumption by approximately 1.29 million tons annually [10]. - China Petroleum has launched geothermal heating services across 11 provinces, providing clean heating for over 1.2 million households and achieving a cumulative geothermal heating capacity of 12.6 million square meters [11][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". Coastal city temperature drops and port coal prices are temporarily stable. Due to factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly running recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, cooling market sentiment. It is expected that thermal coal will start high - level oscillation in the short term [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Inventory - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 56,800 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4] Market Driving Factors - Multiple factors such as approaching peak - winter season, low coal inventory in northern ports, and expected supply contraction at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. The mention of energy supply guarantee by the National Development and Reform Commission cooled market sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

Core Viewpoint - The onset of winter heating season in northern China has prompted energy companies to fully activate their winter supply modes, ensuring energy security during peak demand periods. Group 1: Energy Supply and Infrastructure - A liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport ship carrying 69,000 tons has docked in Qingdao, marking the seventh LNG shipment received at the station since October [1] - The Tianjin LNG receiving station has adopted a "dual-ship docking and simultaneous unloading" operation mode to enhance unloading efficiency and storage capacity [1] - China Petroleum's Longqing Oilfield has increased its natural gas production to 135 million cubic meters, up by 3 million cubic meters since the beginning of the month [3] - The daily gas supply capacity has reached 738 million cubic meters, ensuring heating for northern regions [7] - The national gas pipeline network's peak capacity has increased to 1.17 billion cubic meters per day, a 23% increase compared to last winter [14] Group 2: Storage and Emergency Preparedness - Underground gas storage facilities have completed their annual injection tasks ahead of winter, with the Liaohe storage facility starting its winter supply mode, holding over 3 billion cubic meters of gas [17] - The Central Plains Oilfield's storage facilities have achieved a record high of 940 million cubic meters of gas reserves, sufficient to meet the daily needs of 26 million households during peak usage [21] - The Tarim Oilfield's storage facilities have also completed their annual injection tasks, reaching a historical high of 1.2 billion cubic meters [21] Group 3: Green Energy Initiatives - The "Liao Heat into Jinan" project utilizes industrial waste heat for heating, capable of meeting the heating needs of 1 million square meters and reducing coal consumption by approximately 1.29 million tons annually [25][27] - China Petroleum has launched geothermal heating services across 11 provinces, providing clean heating for over 1.2 million households [28] - Renewable energy generation in the first three quarters reached 2.89 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about 40% of total electricity generation, with wind and solar power growing by 28.3% [30]

Core Viewpoint - The onset of a new cold wave in northern China has marked the official start of centralized heating, entering a critical period for energy supply during winter [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - Energy companies have fully activated their winter supply mode, with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) planning a 3.7% year-on-year increase in natural gas supply resources for the heating season, accounting for approximately 60% of the domestic supply total [1] - The stability and emergency response capability of the natural gas transmission network are directly related to national energy security [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Storage - The National Pipeline Network Group is centralizing and coordinating the allocation of resources, enhancing the safety maintenance of equipment and facilities, and improving the emergency capabilities of the pipeline network [1] - Gas storage facilities act as "underground granaries" for natural gas, where surplus gas is injected during off-peak seasons and extracted during peak winter heating periods, serving as a stabilizing force for energy supply [1] - Domestic gas storage facilities have completed their annual injection tasks ahead of schedule, ensuring sufficient energy reserves for residential heating [1]

央视网消息：随着新一轮寒潮天气的到来，我国北方地区集中供暖已正式开启，能源保供也步入迎峰度冬关键期，能源企业全面开启 冬供模式。 作为华北地区天然气调峰保供的重要枢纽，天津液化天然气接收站采用"双船在泊、同步卸料"的作业模式，提升接卸效率和储备能 力，目前单日最高外输气量超3700万方，较去年同期增长15%。 在山东青岛，一艘满载6.9万吨液化天然气的运输船靠泊接收站，开始接卸作业。这是该站10月以来接卸的第7船液化天然气。 在推动海上进口资源稳供增供的同时，陆上气田加大了增产保供力度。国内最大天然气生产基地——中国石油长庆油田目前天然气产 量提升至1.35亿立方米，较月初增加300万立方米。在四川达州，"川气东送"工程主供气源地的中原油田普光气田，随着多口日产超 20万立方米的高产新井接连投产，气田备战迎峰度冬的天然气井数量已突破80口，创历史新高。 管网加速建设 提升 "全国一张网"度峰能力 天然气输送网络的稳定性与应急能力直接关系全国的能源安全。国家管网集团集中统一调配，加强设备设施安全维护，提升管网应急 能力。 新疆北疆地区近日迎来大风降温天气，为应对极端天气对管网运行的影响，国家管网集团启动了应急保 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The increase in wait - and - see sentiment has led to the temporary stability of port coal prices. Due to factors such as the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, after the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, market sentiment cooled down, and it is expected that thermal coal will start to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Inventory Data - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Previously, the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. Today, the National Development and Reform Commission's mention of energy supply guarantee cooled down the market sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a nationwide cold wave and strong winds on various sectors, including agriculture, transportation, energy, and market supply, highlighting the measures taken by relevant departments to address these challenges [1][2][3]. Energy Supply and Demand - The cold wave is expected to increase energy demand, with daily gas consumption reaching 1.18 billion cubic meters and peak electricity load at 1.13 billion kilowatts, although still below peak winter levels [3][4]. - National energy supply remains sufficient, with coal reserves at 230 million tons, enough for 35 days, and gas storage at high levels to ensure stable operations [3][4]. Market Supply of Essential Goods - The Ministry of Commerce is focused on ensuring stable supply of essential goods during the cold wave, enhancing market monitoring and increasing the organization of goods to meet basic consumer needs [5][6]. - Prices for vegetables and fruits have risen by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively since the beginning of the month, while pork prices have decreased by 1.4%, indicating a mixed market response [6]. Agricultural Impact - The cold wave poses risks to agricultural production, particularly for facilities and crops, with warnings issued for snow and frost damage [7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture is coordinating with meteorological authorities to prepare for adverse weather effects, advising on crop management and facility protection [7]. Transportation and Logistics - The Ministry of Transport is implementing measures to ensure road and waterway safety during the cold wave, enhancing monitoring and response capabilities for extreme weather conditions [8]. - Specific focus is on maintaining traffic flow on critical routes and ensuring the safety of vessels during adverse weather [8]. Public Health Recommendations - The cold wave is expected to increase flu risks in several regions, prompting health officials to recommend reduced outdoor activities and increased indoor ventilation [9]. - Vulnerable populations, including the elderly and children, are advised to take precautions against cold-related health issues [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

秋意散尽，朔风渐起，凛冽寒意悄然来袭。从漠河的林海雪原到江南的烟雨街巷，从蒙东的辽阔草原到 川蜀的丘陵盆地，千家万户对温暖的期盼，正转化为能源保供战场上最紧迫的号角。在这寒冬时节，国 家能源集团各条保供战线上却处处是一片热火朝天的景象。井巷深处，机械轰鸣不绝于耳；运输动脉， 奔涌铁流川流不息；电厂厂区，机组运行昼夜不停，这冲天斗志与拳拳之心交融共鸣，化作源源不断的 暖流，涌向千家万户、点亮烟火人间。 进入冬季，面对严峻神圣的保供职责，国家能源集团锚定"保民生、保安全、保稳定"核心目标，深入发 挥一体化保供能力，充分释放优质产能，坚持"以煤定电、以热定电"，全力以赴保产量、保供应、保民 生，以高度的政治责任感和使命感扛起保障迎峰度冬用能需求重任，守护人民群众温暖过冬。今年前10 个月，国家能源集团月均产煤量超5000万吨。 保产量，筑牢能源保供产能支撑 面对保供重任，国家能源集团将保持煤炭稳产高产作为首要任务，重点强化煤炭资源组织，加大外采和 储备力度。10月以来，已向全国供应商品煤近亿吨，同比增长2.2%，蒙东东北等关键区域稳步提升库 存，全力保障资源充足。联动运输环节，通过精细化管理深挖产能、筑牢运输防线， ...