Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - **Tin**: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - **Styrene**: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - **Apples**: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that despite ongoing inflation risks, gold prices surged significantly following Powell's dovish remarks, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [1] - Upcoming key data releases include durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell indicated that stable unemployment and labor market indicators allow for cautious policy adjustments, despite the current restrictive policy stance [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that while gold prices rose, they have not yet surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, with geopolitical risks easing after optimistic news regarding Russia and Ukraine [1] - If gold prices rise above $3,400, the next resistance levels would be the June 16 high of $3,452 and the historical high of $3,500 [1] - Analyst Chad suggested that if gold prices retract, they may find support at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, with further targets at the 20-day moving average of $3,345 and the 100-day moving average of $3,309 [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,367 and support at $3,357, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1678 and support at 1.1678 [4] - Key indicators to watch today include the German IFO Business Climate Index, U.S. new home sales, and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant drop in the US dollar and a surge in gold prices, with traders anticipating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut before September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices closed up $33.05, or 0.98%, at $3,371.51 per ounce following Powell's remarks [2]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data includes durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Despite the recent surge, gold has not yet broken the $3,400 per ounce resistance level; if it does, the next resistance levels are $3,452 (June 16 high) and $3,500 (historical high) [4]. - If gold prices retreat, support may be found at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, followed by the 20-day moving average at $3,345 and the 100-day moving average at $3,309 [6].

Group 1: Central Bank Strategies - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintains the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged, opting for targeted structural tools instead of broad rate cuts, reflecting caution towards financial risks and asset bubbles [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows a clear inclination towards easing, having cut rates by 25 basis points in August and signaling potential further cuts due to concerns over economic growth and employment [2] - The Swedish Riksbank maintains rates but indicates a possibility of future cuts, attributing slightly higher-than-expected inflation to temporary factors, which may require policy reassessment if economic activity does not improve [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasizes stability and data dependency, maintaining rates unchanged while signaling no urgency to adjust policy despite external economic challenges [3] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) faces a complex situation influenced by tariff scenarios, with rising expectations for rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [3] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - Upcoming Australian CPI data will be crucial for RBA's future decisions, with potential inflationary pressures from electricity prices impacting market expectations for further rate cuts [4] - Japan's CPI data shows a mixed picture, with overall inflation slowing but core inflation remaining above 3%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [5] - The U.S. PCE data, a preferred inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, will directly affect market expectations for rate cuts, with geopolitical factors potentially influencing long-term inflation trends [5] - Weak Canadian GDP data, coupled with low inflation concerns, may provide further justification for the BoC to pursue easing measures to support economic growth [5] Group 3: NVIDIA's Financial Outlook - NVIDIA is expected to report strong quarterly results, driven by explosive demand for AI computing power, but the focus will be on future guidance, particularly regarding its exposure to the Chinese market [6] - The agreement between the U.S. government and NVIDIA, requiring a portion of revenue from China to be paid, along with potential AI export taxes, introduces significant uncertainty for NVIDIA's operations in China [6] - KeyBanc anticipates that NVIDIA may exclude Chinese revenue from its guidance, signaling deepening impacts of U.S. tech restrictions [6] - NVIDIA's financial results will have broader implications for the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and the future of AI technology amidst U.S.-China tech competition [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, marking the first time in five years that prices fell below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang adjusting their prices accordingly [3][6][9] - Zhou Dafu's gold jewelry is now priced at 1006 yuan per gram, down from a peak of 1029 yuan, while Zhou Liufu has dropped to 985 yuan, reflecting a decrease of nearly 40 yuan [6][9] - Banks offer more competitive prices for gold bars, with China Construction Bank quoting 786 yuan per gram, which is nearly 200 yuan cheaper than jewelry prices, making it an attractive option for investors [7][9] Group 2 - The decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a strong US dollar, which reached a year-high index of 108.3, and a reduction in geopolitical risks that traditionally drive investors to gold as a safe haven [9][10] - There has been a notable shift in investment flows, with funds that previously sought refuge in gold now moving towards Bitcoin and US stocks, leading to a significant reduction in gold ETF holdings by 45 tons over three months [9][10] - The overall demand for gold jewelry has plummeted, with sales dropping by 26% in the first half of the year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards renting rather than purchasing gold items [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of understanding the purpose of gold purchases, whether for personal use or investment, and advises consumers to be cautious and informed to avoid potential pitfalls [13][14] - It emphasizes the need for consumers to compare prices across different banks and stores, as discrepancies can lead to significant savings, with some banks offering gold bars at prices that vary by as much as 10 yuan per gram [14][21] - The article concludes with a portrayal of a consumer, Aunt Chen, who opts for a bank gold bar instead of jewelry, reflecting a more rational and cautious approach to gold investment among the general public [21][22]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07%, marking a historical high [1] - Operating cash flow increased by 11.4% to 12.009 billion yuan, while the debt-to-asset ratio remained at a reasonable level of 50.15% [1] Core Business Progress - Copper production was 353,600 tons, up 12.68%, and cobalt production was 61,100 tons, up 13.05%, with all products exceeding half of their annual targets [2] - Significant improvements in operational efficiency were noted, particularly in the TFM project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with enhanced governance and optimized processes leading to lower costs [2] Key Drivers of Profitability - The substantial increase in net profit was driven by effective cost control, with operating costs decreasing by 10.96%, surpassing the revenue decline [1] - Continuous optimization of product structure, with copper and cobalt business revenue share increasing, benefiting from long-term demand in the new energy supply chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆★ (the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities, advisable to wait and see) [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to price fluctuations in the energy market. Short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain, and investors are advised to use appropriate strategies to manage risks [1]. - The fundamentals of different energy products vary. Some show signs of supply - demand balance improvement, while others face challenges such as cost pressure and high inventory [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC10 contract up 0.55% during the day. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to a re - evaluation of the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long - straddle strategy for out - of - the - money options to hedge risks and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On Friday, affected by the news of increased US sanctions on Iran's oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. FU rose more than 3% in the early trading session, and LU rose nearly 1%. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was also low, with supply down 19% year - on - year as of July. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 17.5% month - on - month. The fundamentals are generally more bullish, and the price spread between different varieties has changed [2]. Asphalt - Sanctions on Iran's oil have led to a stronger geopolitical premium for crude oil, and asphalt prices have followed suit, with the main contract approaching the short - term upper boundary. Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's asphalt production has shown a widening year - on - year decline due to increased deep - processing loads. In August, the shipment volume of sample refineries increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for new toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers have improved significantly year - on - year, indicating potential demand for asphalt. The basis has declined due to the strengthening of the futures market and the stability of spot prices. The asphalt market's fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and its price trend mainly follows that of crude oil [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the volume of imported liquefied petroleum gas arriving at ports and the volume released by refineries have increased, putting pressure on domestic - produced gas. After the decline of naphtha prices, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. With the expected decline in chemical profit margins in the future, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the upward pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, maintaining a volatile trend [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is trading at $3328.25 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.3% from the previous day [1] - The strong rise of the US dollar index by 0.45% has made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, impacting its attractiveness [1] - Market attention is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which may influence future gold trends [1][2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has been experiencing significant fluctuations, indicating a potential upcoming trend change, with both bulls and bears accumulating momentum [2] - The market is expected to remain volatile until Powell's speech, with a bearish outlook maintained for the medium term [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3320, $3310, and $3300, with ultimate targets set at $3245 and $3150-$3120 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at approximately $63.43, showing a slight decline of 0.14% [5] - Recent data from the EIA indicates a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories, supporting the price amid strong demand [5] - The technical outlook for oil suggests a potential upward trend in the short term, with key resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support at $62.0-$61.0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding Intel's (INTC.US) foundry revival have negatively impacted TSMC (TSM.US), raising investor concerns about increased competition. However, JPMorgan believes that the "competitive illusion" created by Intel's foundry efforts is actually more beneficial for TSMC [1] Group 1: Intel's Developments - Intel has made significant progress recently, with reports of potential government investment and a $2 billion investment from SoftBank. Key customers may also participate in the revival of Intel's wafer fabrication facilities [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that the U.S. cannot rely solely on TSMC for advanced chip supply and aims to shift more capacity back to the U.S. [1] Group 2: TSMC's Market Position - JPMorgan asserts that the illusion of having a weaker competitor is more advantageous for TSMC, as it alleviates ongoing regulatory pressures and the push to return business to the U.S. [2] - Despite potential negative perceptions from market participants regarding major TSMC clients like Apple or Nvidia supporting Intel's revival, JPMorgan believes that this will not resolve the inherent conflicts of interest between products and foundries [2] - TSMC is expected to maintain over 90% market share in advanced nodes for the foreseeable future, as the costs associated with a 100% market share may outweigh the benefits [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors - Reports suggest that the U.S. government may convert part of the CHIPS Act funding into equity stakes in participating companies, which could require TSMC to sell a small portion of its equity, likely not exceeding 1% [3] - JPMorgan believes that this potential equity sale is unlikely to significantly alter TSMC's strategic direction and that TSMC will probably not operate Intel's factories or share intellectual property or technology with Intel [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - JPMorgan concludes that while geopolitical factors may cause short-term volatility, TSMC's fundamentals remain strong, indicating potential for upward movement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a recent price of 7.37 yuan and a 12.55% increase over the past six months [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 21, 2025, the gold ETF fund has a turnover rate of 1.35% and a trading volume of 3.81 billion yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 221.58 million yuan recently, with a total of 81.55 million yuan net inflow over the last 15 trading days [2] - The fund's net asset value has increased by 80.84% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Group 2: Investment Dynamics - UBS forecasts that the upward trend in gold prices may continue for another year, driven by factors such as persistent inflation in the U.S., below-trend economic growth, and a potential resumption of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Eastern Jin Cheng suggests that unexpected inflation data may lead to a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, which could pressure gold prices in the short term [1] Group 3: Fund Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, with a tracking error of just 0.002% over the past three months, reflecting high tracking precision [5]