来源：金投网 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第7个工作日，当前预计油价上调60元/吨，折合每升油价上调0.05-0.06 元，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅继续不增不减，仍超上调红线，油价上涨中。 注意，国际油价还在上涨 地区 92号汽油 注意，受地缘政治风险影响，国际油价仍有上涨态势。俄乌冲突，也门局势，美委局势，均在支撑油价 上涨。国内预计油价涨幅暂时不变，预计在元旦假期结束后，会有新变动，希望到时候是下跌走势。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：上涨0.24%，收于57.95美元/桶。布伦特原油上涨0.08%，收于 61.27美元/桶。今日国际油价继续震荡，截至发稿，美原油暂报57.89美元/桶，跌幅0.10%。 目前据三名欧佩克代表表示，由于全球石油供应过剩的迹象越来越多，预计欧佩克+在本周末召开会议 时将坚持暂停增产的计划。短期内或可能缓解市场的供应过剩担忧，提振油价上行。 另外，据今日凌晨的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储内部官员分歧问题依旧严重，对降息的不确定性也加 剧了原油市场的波动行情。 总的来说，国际油价在短期内仍有上涨可能，晚间会有美国EIA原油库存，以及当周初请失业金人数， 油价仍有震荡空间。 本轮油 ...

一、基本面 1、美联储货币政策：2025年12月美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，基准利率降至3.5%-3.75%，降低持有黄金的机会成本；尽管政策制定者内部分歧显著 （部分支持维持利率、部分主张更大幅度降息），且2026年预计仅降息一次，但经济数据恶化的潜在风险可能推动美联储加速宽松，为黄金提供长期支撑。 此外，美联储启动短期美债购买的技术性操作，稳定了市场预期。 昨日12月30日（星期二），黄金亚欧盘震荡上涨，到美盘前最高上涨至4404/4405区域。美盘受阻转跌，凌晨收盘前跌至4334附近，日线收出一根长上影线 的十字阳线。 2、四小时级别：核心关注4303的得失情况，该点位为短线多空博弈的关键分水岭。若日内行情能够企稳于该点位上方，仍有继续走强的可能，后续需继续 上看昨日高点4404/4405；若该区间被有效突破，进一步上攻目标可关注4426/4427、4455/4456区域阻力。上述两个点位对应黄金价格从4550下跌至4303过程 中的黄金分割0.5与0.618关键位置。 若行情有效跌破4303，则市场将延续下行趋势，反弹过程中可寻找逢高做空机会，下方依次关注4286、4274/4273以及4225/ ...

美国总统特朗普公开证实中情局本月在委内瑞拉境内实施了打击行动，这标志着美国对委施压战略的重 大升级。 《环球时报》援引CNN及多家媒体报道称，当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普对媒体证实了一则消息： 美国中央情报局近日对委内瑞拉沿岸的一个据信被用于储存和运输毒品的港口设施实施了无人机袭击。 这一行动迅速引发了各方对局势失控的担忧。彭博分析认为，虽然白宫将行动定性为反毒打击，但这引 发了美国国会关于战争授权的激烈辩论，同时也极限测试着委内瑞拉军方的忠诚度与底线。投资者正密 切关注该地区局势是否会进一步升级，从而对能源市场及区域地缘政治稳定造成更广泛的直接冲击。 马杜罗的沉默与未来走向 面对美方罕见的直接越境打击，委内瑞拉方面的反应显得格外谨慎。据环球时报报道，截至发稿前，委 内瑞拉官方未对此事作出正式表态。媒体观察到，马杜罗在周一晚间近两小时的讲话中并未提及此次袭 击，而是强调了军队的团结与忠诚。 特朗普在会见以色列总理内塔尼亚胡前对媒体确认，美军摧毁了这一"大型设施"，并称该处发生"大爆 炸"，"现在那个地方已经不存在了"。虽然目前尚未确认有人员伤亡，且委内瑞拉方面暂未正式回应， 但地缘政治风险的急剧上升已引发市 ...

Economic Data - Chicago PMI improved significantly, coming in at 43.5%, surpassing expectations of 39.8%, indicating a potential shift from contractionary territory after nearly three years [2] - Housing price index increased by 1.3% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 1.1%, but showed a deceleration from the previous 1.4% [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting minutes are anticipated to provide clarity on the Fed's concerns and future direction, which may influence market volatility, particularly in the yield complex [4][5] - Current yields are trading around 4.1% to 4.13%, with expectations of a clearer economic picture emerging from the FOMC minutes [4] Commodity Market Trends - A rebound in metals is observed after a significant pullback, with silver showing signs of recovery, which may support equities, particularly in the technology sector [5] - Crude oil prices are up about 0.5%, influenced by geopolitical tensions in Yemen and OPEC's expected output pause [9][10] Energy Sector Outlook - The XLE is showing potential for bullish movement in 2026, with historical data suggesting a possible 17% to 30% upside following bullish MACD crossovers [11][12] - Energy sector performance may diverge from broader equity market trends, indicating a complex relationship between energy and other sectors [13] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 is experiencing a low volume environment, with potential for a pullback as indicated by the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) [15][16] - Consolidation around the 6,900 level is ongoing, with technology sector performance being crucial for any aggressive breakout [17][18]

Group 1 - The precious metals market has regained investor attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs on December 24, 2023, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively, significantly outperforming most global asset classes [1] - The primary catalyst for the surge in precious metal prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, which has strengthened the outlook for policy easing and weakened the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have accelerated capital inflows into the precious metals market as a safe haven, while structural market dynamics due to imbalances in industrial supply and demand, particularly from the expansion of photovoltaic installations and surging AI server demand, have provided strong support for silver prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the precious metals market is expected to experience a further acceleration in capital allocation due to heightened risk aversion, with overall price trends showing a pattern of fluctuating increases [2] - Short-term risks include potential profit-taking by investors and the possibility of monetary policy easing falling short of expectations, which could exert downward pressure on prices [2] - Long-term prospects remain positive for precious metals, supported by the onset of global monetary easing, continued central bank gold purchases, and the deepening process of de-dollarization, alongside persistent geopolitical risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is regaining favor as a traditional safe-haven asset amid ongoing global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, with traders closely monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes for monetary policy clues [1][3]. Market Analysis - On December 30, gold prices showed positive movement, supported by strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and continued inflows of safe-haven funds, which are expected to provide strong support for gold prices and limit further downside [1][3]. - The international gold price experienced a significant drop from approximately $4549 to around $4303, a decline of about $246 in a single day, before stabilizing [4]. - Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded slightly but faced resistance around $4383, leading to a period of minor fluctuations as the market sought to recover from the sharp decline [4]. Technical Indicators - The key resistance level is identified at the upper Bollinger Band around $4520; a decisive breakthrough could open up further upward potential, aiming to retest historical highs of $4550 and challenge the psychological level of $4600 [4]. - Initial support is located in the $4305-$4300 range, corresponding to the low on December 29 and significant round numbers; if this area is breached, further corrections may target the December 16 low of approximately $4271 [2][4]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategy includes testing positions around key resistance levels of 4387, 4397, and 4430, with support levels at 4340, 4323, and 4305 [5][6]. - For intraday trading, a light position is recommended with a margin of error of ±2, suggesting a stop loss of 5 points and an initial target of around 15 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as profit-taking occurred after a bullish week, but the overall trend remains upward with technical support from moving averages [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, gold opened at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a high of $4,548.58, and then fell to a low of $4,303.73, closing at $4,331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [1][12]. - The daily trading range was $244.85, indicating high volatility during the session [1][12]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The opening on December 30 saw gold prices supported by buying interest at the mid-chart level, with geopolitical tensions providing a positive boost [3][13]. - Despite a bearish outlook from upcoming U.S. economic indicators, the long-term bullish sentiment for gold remains intact due to global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [3][14]. - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting minutes, which may influence gold prices depending on the tone regarding interest rates [14][16]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently supported by various moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to these levels [9][10]. - The monthly chart shows a potential bearish pattern, suggesting risks of a drop to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but a strong performance in the following month could lead to a bullish outlook towards $5,500-$6,000 [16][19]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a critical factor that could either support or hinder gold prices, with expectations leaning towards a more dovish approach [4][8][17]. - Continued adjustments in central bank reserve structures and persistent inflationary pressures are expected to support gold demand in the long term [16].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 4.5%, marking the largest single-day decline since October, primarily due to the CME raising margin requirements for gold and silver futures, which triggered profit-taking and position adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the European session on December 30, spot gold saw a slight increase, reaching $4,380 per ounce before stabilizing around $4,360 [1] - The previous day's drop was attributed to the CME's increase in margin requirements, leading to widespread profit-taking and portfolio adjustments, which intensified short-term volatility [2] - Analysts suggest that the potential for further declines in gold prices may be limited due to expectations of the Federal Reserve entering a loosening cycle by 2026, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [2][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold trading showed a positive trend, remaining above the critical 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating a sustained bullish outlook [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the midline, suggesting a potential for further consolidation or a brief pullback in the short term [4] - Key resistance is identified at the upper Bollinger Band around $4,520 per ounce, with a successful breakout potentially leading to tests of historical highs at $4,550 and psychological levels at $4,600 [4] - Initial support is concentrated in the $4,305-$4,300 per ounce range, with a failure to hold this level possibly extending the correction towards the December 16 low of $4,271 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing significant price declines due to a combination of macroeconomic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and changes in supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 saw a substantial drop, opening at 334,200 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 336,740 CNY/ton, and a low of 316,730 CNY/ton, ultimately closing at 326,330 CNY/ton, down 16,010 CNY, or 4.68% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 441,256 lots, with open interest decreasing by 6,392 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Dynamics - Supply is showing signs of recovery, with increased imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and improved exports from Myanmar and Indonesia, despite ongoing geopolitical risks [3]. - Domestic and international social inventories are accumulating, indicating a loosening of the previously tight supply-demand balance [3]. Demand Dynamics - High tin prices are suppressing downstream profits, leading industries such as solder to adopt low inventory strategies, resulting in weak market transactions [3]. - Traditional consumer electronics are entering a low season, while demand from emerging sectors like AI servers and new energy is not sufficient to offset the overall cyclical decline in demand [3]. Short-term Price Outlook - The cautious macro sentiment is expected to guide the tin market towards further price declines in the short term, as profit-taking by bulls contributes to downward pressure [4].

港股市场"三桶油"走强，其中，中国海洋石油涨5%，中国石油股份涨超3%，中国石油化工涨超2%。消息面上，国 际油价连续第二日走强，WTI原油升破58美元/桶，布伦特原油逼近62美元/桶。地缘政治风险再度升温成为主要驱 动。俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突出现新变数，同时也门局势恶化引发中东供应中断担忧，双重因素共同推升市场风险溢 价。尽管年末流动性相对有限，油价仍录得可观涨幅，反映投资者对潜在供应冲击的敏感性上升。 此外，瑞银分析师强调，中国海运原油进口量保持强劲，为油市提供需求端支撑，进一步巩固价格底部。 与此同时，中东地缘紧张再度升温。沙特领导的联军周末向也门南部主要分裂势力发出停止军事行动的警告。有分 析称，也门局势恶化令红海航道和中东石油运输面临新威胁，供应中断风险显著上升。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | (0) 中国海洋石油 | 5.04% | 21.680 | 1.03万亿 | 22.28% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 3.39% | 8.540 | ...