Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios beyond stocks and bonds by considering commodity ETFs, which can provide opportunities to mitigate risks and capture investment potential in various commodities related to daily life [1]. Group 1: What is Commodity ETF? - Commodity ETFs are funds that track the price movements of commodities such as gold, copper, and soybeans, allowing investors to gain exposure without directly buying physical assets [3]. Group 2: Reasons to Consider Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs offer convenience compared to physical assets, with lower entry barriers, simpler operations, and flexible trading options [4]. - They help in risk diversification as commodity price movements may not correlate with stocks and bonds, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility [4]. - They provide access to investment opportunities in long-term trends, such as global energy transitions, which may not be fully captured by traditional stock and bond investments [4]. Group 3: Types of Commodity ETFs - Gold ETFs can serve as a hedge against stock market volatility and inflation, allowing investors to benefit from gold price increases without holding physical gold [6]. - Agricultural commodities like wheat and corn, as well as economic crops like soybeans and cotton, exhibit high volatility but have low correlation with stocks and bonds over the long term, making them suitable for differentiated portfolio allocation [7]. Group 4: Considerations for Investing in Commodity ETFs - Commodity assets may experience greater short-term volatility compared to stocks and bonds, necessitating a strong understanding of the supply and demand dynamics and influencing factors of different commodities [10][11]. - Commodity investments are non-yielding assets, meaning they do not generate interest or dividends; returns primarily come from price changes [11]. Group 5: Conclusion - Overall, commodity ETFs can enrich investment choices beyond stocks and bonds, with categories like gold, non-ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural products each offering unique characteristics that can enhance portfolio diversification [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tactical overweight stance on A-shares and US stocks is maintained, driven by improving market risk appetite and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][2] - The current low interest rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a long-term trend of institutional capital entering the market supported by diverse investment tools [2] - The strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan has a year-to-date annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, with a target allocation of 45% equities, 45% bonds, and 10% commodities [2] Group 2 - The improvement in risk appetite is identified as a key factor influencing current tactical asset allocation, with multiple factors expected to support strong performance in equity assets [3] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) plan projects an annualized return of 55% by 2025, with a high Sharpe ratio of 1.65 from backtesting [3] - The August allocation recommendation suggests 55% in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities, with a positive outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and a cautious stance on government bonds due to market pressures [3]

Core Insights - The "Zhongyun Jingwei·Yuan Guanlan Bian" investment strategy report conference was held in Zhengzhou, attracting over a hundred clients to discuss market opportunities [1] - The event emphasized the importance of professional investment strategies and forward-looking perspectives in wealth management amid a complex economic environment [3] Macroeconomic Analysis - Dr. Deng Shubin, Chief Economist of Zhongyuan Securities, provided an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year, highlighting significant growth in service consumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy despite structural issues and external risks [4] - The central government aims to "expand residents' property income" as a key path to boost consumption, with the value of stock asset allocation becoming increasingly prominent in the current recovery environment [4] Market Insights - Mr. Zhang Liang, General Manager of Shenzhen Zhongou Ruibo, noted a significant positive shift in domestic policies, indicating the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market, with a focus on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gold for growth opportunities [6] - The current economic resilience, coupled with increased external uncertainties, suggests that the bond market is entering a period of fluctuation, where bonds should be viewed as a "core allocation" to balance investment portfolio volatility [9] Wealth Management Solutions - The "He Account" one-stop wealth management service was introduced by Mr. Wang Ningqi, emphasizing the solution to multi-account configuration challenges and the benefits of asset isolation and targeted inheritance through trust legal structures [10] - The conference showcased Zhongyuan Trust's commitment to providing professional and forward-looking market insights and asset allocation strategies, reinforcing its dedication to client-centric wealth management [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares and US stocks for August, driven by improving market risk appetite and expectations of economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to risk assets significantly outperforming safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [1]. - The expectation of continued economic growth and government support for capital markets is leading to a highly optimistic outlook for A-shares [1]. - The US stock market is viewed positively due to a reduced probability of recession and increasing chances of interest rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a long-term trend of increased institutional investment in capital markets [1]. - A strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan has been constructed based on macro factors, achieving an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57 as of the end of July [1]. - The proposed strategic benchmark allocation is set at 45% for equities, 45% for bonds, and 10% for commodities, with a deviation limit of 10% [1]. Group 3: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The improvement in risk appetite is identified as a core factor influencing the current tactical asset allocation, with multiple factors expected to support continued strong performance in equity assets [2]. - The TAA plan projects an annualized return of 55% by 2025, with a high Sharpe ratio of 1.65 based on full sample backtesting [2]. Group 4: Specific Allocation Recommendations - For August, the recommended allocation is 55% in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities [3]. - A positive outlook is maintained for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to stable economic growth expectations and government support [3]. - Caution is advised regarding government bonds due to pressures from market risk appetite and capital redemption [3]. - The outlook for commodities, particularly oil, remains cautious due to supply and demand pressures [3].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes an improvement in risk appetite supporting global equity allocation value, with a tactical overweight on A-shares and US stocks as of August [3] - The current low interest rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan yielding an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57 as of the end of July [3] - The proposed strategic benchmark allocation is set at 45% for equities, 45% for bonds, and 10% for commodities, with a deviation limit of 10% [3] Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation Insights - The enhancement of risk appetite is identified as a key factor influencing current tactical asset allocation, with expectations of continued strong performance in equity assets supported by various factors including technological breakthroughs and government support for capital markets [4] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) plan anticipates a 55% weight in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities, reflecting optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as marginal optimism for US and Japanese stocks [4] - Caution is advised regarding government bonds due to market risk appetite adjustments and redemption pressures, while commodity prices, particularly oil, may face dual pressures from supply and demand [4] Group 3: Infrastructure Opportunities in Xinjiang - Historical reviews of three central work conferences on Xinjiang indicate significant stock price increases for key construction companies following these meetings, with notable gains such as 45.6% for Beixin Road and Bridge after the first conference [10] - Fixed asset investment in Xinjiang increased by 16.2% in the first five months of the year, with industrial investment rising by 22.8%, particularly in wind and solar energy projects [11] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan highlights ongoing infrastructure investment, with plans for 500 key projects totaling 3.47 trillion yuan by 2025 [12] Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry Development - The coal chemical sector in Xinjiang is projected to experience a construction peak, with planned projects exceeding 800 billion yuan, driven by policy support [13] - Companies like China Chemical and Donghua Technology are positioned to capitalize on traditional coal chemical market opportunities, with significant new orders reported [13] Group 5: Aerospace and Satellite Deployment - The acceleration of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite deployment is identified as a critical area, with a projected need for 2.3 million satellites by 2030, necessitating enhanced rocket launch capabilities [18] - Current rocket launch capacity is insufficient to meet the demand for satellite deployment, with an annual requirement of 1,500-2,000 tons compared to the current capacity of approximately 200 tons [19] - Reusable rocket technology is highlighted as a key factor in reducing launch costs, with liquid fuel rockets becoming the mainstream choice for new generation reusable rockets [20]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation suggests a potential bull market, but many investors may not be adequately prepared for it [2][8]. Group 1: Historical Experiences - In the 2014-2015 bull market, the company engaged in numerous trades but struggled to keep up with the market, resulting in minimal gains [4][5]. - During the 2019-2020 bull market, the company focused on broad index products, achieving annual returns of over 30%, which were considered relatively low at the time [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of responding to market conditions rather than attempting to predict them, suggesting that most investors should adopt a more reactive approach [9][10]. - Two key strategies for responding to a bull market include: 1. Investing a significant portion of funds in equity markets when market positions are not high, and being willing to increase investments during market pullbacks [11]. 2. Accepting average market returns rather than seeking quick profits, which may involve diversifying investments across broad indices to mitigate risks [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market index levels may not accurately reflect the underlying sector performances, as value stocks have contributed significantly to index gains, while other sectors may still have room for growth [11]. - The company suggests that the best approach for ordinary investors is to increase equity allocations during market lows and focus on responding to market changes rather than making predictions [16].

图源：小红书 "我很怀念煤老板做投资人的日子，他们特别好。" 当年的著名编剧汪海林，说出了不少影视人的心声，在一众喜欢"瞎干预"的投资人面前，煤老板成了被怀念的对象。 如今，怀念煤老板的远不止影视圈，如今还有一大批挂牌待售的高星酒店。 愁云惨淡。 用这个词来形容今年的西安高星酒店大宗交易市场的行情，再恰当不过了。 近期，西安二环边一座建成超30年历史的地标四星级酒店以超低价拍卖成交，吸引市场诸多关注。 据京东拍卖平台显示，今年7月西安骊苑大酒店名下资产被西安晨钟实业有限公司以1878.86万元拍下，按此拍卖价格折合单价仅842元/平方米，直接突破 了西安高星酒店拍卖的下限。 842元一平拍下的，除了酒店建筑本身，还包含酒店的电子设备（如电脑、打印机、电视机、空调等）、其他设备（如家具、灯具、装饰物品等酒店经营 用品）等固定资产。 对比今年被卖掉的高星酒店： 沈阳世茂希尔顿酒店折合每平方均价约为1.15万元； 成都希顿国际酒店相当于7900元每平方米； 莫干山开元名庭酒店折合2440元/每平方米； 哪怕同样是四星级的东莞君爵酒店，成交单价也折合为1387元/平方米。 作为西安老地标的骊苑大酒店，如今拍出超低价不 ...

- The report introduces the **Macro Factor Risk Parity Model** for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), which aims to diversify macro risks and stabilize allocation positions. The model uses real macro indicators to construct original macro factors, such as growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity factors for domestic economy, and asset premium factors for overseas markets. These factors are standardized after processing real values and predictions through STL seasonal treatment. The model employs multi-linear regression with a rolling 5-year window and a 1-year half-life for regression weights to calculate factor exposures. The backtesting results show an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, indicating satisfactory performance in risk diversification[42][43][44] - The **Black-Litterman (BL) Strategy** is used for Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) to enhance returns. It combines macroeconomic factor scores with subjective views to form a viewpoint matrix. The process starts with converting macroeconomic consensus expectations into asset macro composite score indicators, then into expected returns, and finally integrating them into the BL viewpoint matrix. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 23.1% during the five-year backtesting period (2019/01/02-2024/02/29) and 55% in 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.65, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining subjective and quantitative research[50][51][54] - The **Macro Factor Risk Parity Model** backtesting results show stable allocation proportions: bonds at 40-50%, equities at approximately 50%, and commodities below 10%. This aligns with mainstream investment needs. The model's annualized return is 9.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.57, and it outperforms the traditional risk parity model in terms of returns while maintaining balanced asset allocation[45][46][48] - The **BL Strategy** backtesting results indicate an annualized return of 24%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.65. In 2025, the strategy achieved a remarkable annualized return of 55%, successfully capturing key market opportunities such as the Q1 gold bull market and Q2 A-share recovery. The strategy's concentrated holdings are mitigated by the SAA framework, which establishes baseline proportions for major asset classes[54][56][57]

这篇文章将聚焦非专业投资者都能参考的资产配置思路。我将全球可投资资产分为三类：与中国经济高 度相关的资产；与美国经济高度相关的资产；与中美经济都不怎么相关的资产。 一、房地产、股票与黄金 我之所以推荐把资产分成这三大类别，源于对全球格局的观察——当今世界的经济版图，基本由中国与 美国两股力量主导。 两国之间既有深度的经济联系，又存在激烈的竞争关系，呈现此消彼长的格局。争夺全球霸主地位是一 场长期博弈，两者将会长期对垒。 我们无法断言中国必胜美国，尽管身为中国人自然希望这一刻到来，但投资上不能被情绪驱动。中国相 关的资产，必须要配置一部分。但美国的科技与金融实力同样强大，必须承认并尊重。 2021年中国房地产触顶、美国深陷疫情时，"东升西降"一度成为投资圈的流行判断，但很快在2022年偃 旗息鼓。 本文来自微信公众号：投资人黄海 （ID：haivcconsumer），作者：黄海，头图来自：AI生成 日常生活中，不少朋友会私下向我们咨询投资建议——手中有一笔资金，该如何配置？ 美国依然是一个强大的经济体。虽然已不复1990年代的巅峰，但体量与实力仍不可小觑。2025年初，随 着DeepSeek的横空出世，中国资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently in a delicate state, avoiding a hard landing but still facing underlying structural issues that could lead to future instability [2][6][7] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with initial non-farm employment data showing an increase of approximately 147,000 jobs, although subsequent revisions revealed a significant drop to only 14,000 jobs added [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, indicating that consumer income can support spending [2] GDP and Growth Dynamics - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly decline since 2022, with net exports negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.6 percentage points [3] - Consumer and private fixed investment grew by 3.0%, suggesting some internal economic support, but growth in durable goods orders and residential investment is slowing [3] Policy Environment - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase the budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years, with a stable deficit rate around 6% of GDP, indicating ongoing high fiscal deficits that may support the economy in the short term but pose long-term sustainability risks [4] - The marginal effects of fiscal stimulus may diminish in a context of tight monetary policy [4] Trade Policy Implications - Recent trade barriers, including a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 10% base tariff on nearly all imports starting April 2025, may raise production costs and weaken international competitiveness [5] - Such protectionist measures could lead trade partners to seek alternative markets, potentially exerting downward pressure on U.S. exports [5] Capital Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rebounded quickly after a 15% decline, recovering in just 15 trading days, the fastest in 75 years, driven by expectations of interest rate stabilization and fiscal stimulus [5] - Historical data suggests that similar rebounds typically lead to average gains of 6%, 10.5%, and 16.5% over the next three, six, and twelve months, respectively [5] Structural Challenges - The current economic state resembles a temporarily balanced situation, with underlying structural issues such as productivity growth slowdown, aging population, rising debt burdens, and international trade tensions still present [6][7] - Investors are advised to remain cautious, as superficial data and market rebounds may obscure the true economic resilience [6][7]