Core Viewpoint - The key to attracting foreign investment lies in providing a stable, predictable, and fair market environment, which is being addressed through various government initiatives aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and encouraging foreign reinvestment [1][2]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The State Council has emphasized the importance of implementing policies to strengthen domestic circulation and has made targeted deployments to enhance foreign investment [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued measures to encourage foreign investment enterprises to reinvest domestically, highlighting the need for greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital [1][2]. - The government has recognized the need for reforms in foreign investment management and has outlined plans to steadily expand institutional openness in its work report [1]. Group 2: Market Environment - The construction of a unified national market aims to eliminate regional and industry barriers, allowing for the free flow and optimal allocation of production factors such as goods, services, capital, and labor across the country [2][4]. - Ensuring fair competition and equal treatment for foreign enterprises in areas such as resource acquisition, licensing, and government procurement is crucial for attracting foreign investment [2][4]. - The establishment of a unified market system is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the market to foreign investors by providing a consistent legal framework and equal status for both domestic and foreign enterprises [2][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The government is focused on addressing bottlenecks and obstacles in the construction of a unified national market to improve policy precision and operability [4]. - Key requirements for establishing a unified market include creating a national market regulatory framework, facilitating the smooth flow of production factors, and implementing a unified market access management system [4][5]. - The construction of a unified national market is seen as a way to attract global resources and integrate them into the domestic economy, thereby enhancing the overall investment environment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held on July 11, 2025, in Nanjing focused on the collaborative efforts of the Yangtze River Delta region to enhance market regulation and build a unified national market, showcasing significant progress in cross-regional cooperation and regulatory mechanisms [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Initiatives - The Yangtze River Delta region has implemented over 170 high-frequency government services and applications for cross-province "one-stop" services, with 40 types of high-frequency electronic certificates recognized across provinces [2]. - A total of 6.98 billion data entries have been collected in the regional business entity database, with data update cycles reduced from monthly to daily [2]. - Six new cooperation agreements were signed, including those focused on platform economy innovation and integrated risk warning in credit regulation, indicating a commitment to further regulatory integration [5][6]. Group 2: Future Plans - The region aims to deepen fair competition reforms, enhance anti-monopoly enforcement collaboration, and promote a unified regulatory framework across the four areas [3][4]. - There is a focus on standardizing quality support and leading standards in key industries such as biomedicine and artificial intelligence, as well as developing green and low-carbon standards [3]. - The initiative includes enhancing digital collaboration and data sharing to improve regulatory efficiency and create impactful application scenarios [3][4]. Group 3: Consumer Environment and Safety - The Yangtze River Delta region plans to enhance consumer protection by implementing a three-year action plan to optimize the consumer environment, including the establishment of "trustworthy" stores and markets [7][8]. - Strengthening food safety regulations through cross-regional inspections and monitoring is a priority, ensuring consumer health and safety [7][8].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of innovation to lead the development of a modern industrial system in Zhenjiang, focusing on strengthening emerging industries, nurturing future industries, and revitalizing traditional industries [1] - It highlighted the need for comprehensive understanding and implementation of the "five unifications and one openness" principle to optimize the business environment and enhance the integration of domestic and international markets [1] - The meeting discussed leveraging Zhenjiang's transportation advantages to strengthen the marine industry and contribute to the high-quality development of the marine economy [1] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the importance of cultural preservation and reform in cultural systems to build a culturally strong city [2] - It called for enhanced support and services for youth, promoting talent development initiatives to create favorable conditions for their growth and contributions [2] - The meeting reviewed the progress of various initiatives aimed at implementing the important directives from the General Secretary, focusing on responsibility and effectiveness [2] Group 3 - The meeting addressed the management of collective assets at the village level, emphasizing the need for high-quality pilot projects and collaborative efforts [3] - It reviewed the progress of strict party governance, focusing on political leadership, theoretical education, and strengthening the cadre team [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and regulate low-price disorderly competition in enterprises, promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity in the basic chemical industry [1] - In the refrigerant sector, the acceleration of the second-generation quota reduction and the freezing of the third-generation quota by 2025 indicate continued supply constraints, with recent corporate performance forecasts showing an improvement in industry prosperity [1] - The organic silicon industry has ended its rapid expansion phase, with new supply growth slowing down, while demand from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and electronics is expected to improve the supply-demand balance, potentially leading to price and profit recovery [1] Group 2 - In the sweetener sector, the high concentration of the sucralose industry and collaborative production halts for inventory reduction may drive price increases during peak demand seasons; allulose, with its sugar-like taste but lower calories, has significant market potential following its approval as a new food ingredient in China [1] - The anti-involution policy context indicates a clear trend of optimizing the supply-demand structure within the industry [1] - The chemical leader ETF tracks a segmented chemical index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the chemical products and materials sectors, with the latest trading day showing an index increase of 1.32% [1]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - The report from Nomura Securities predicting a "cliff-like decline" in China's economy in the second half of the year is considered alarmist and underestimates the resilience of the Chinese economy and the positive effects of policies [1] - Consumer spending has shown strong growth in the first half of the year, with improvements in consumption and dining revenues, indicating robust consumer resilience [2] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support consumption, as previous implementations did not lead to significant declines in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented a long-term mechanism to boost consumption through measures aimed at increasing employment, income, and reducing living costs [2] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is seen as a necessary step for long-term healthy development in sectors like new energy [3] - The impact of tariffs on exports has been overstated, as China's export performance has remained strong despite previous trade tensions, showcasing the competitiveness of Chinese products [4] Group 3: Positive Policy Stance - The current policy stance is characterized by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies aimed at stabilizing growth [5] - The government has a diverse toolbox for economic stabilization, including infrastructure investment, social security spending, tax reductions, and structural adjustments [6] - While there may be marginal pressures on the economy in the second half, these do not alter the long-term positive trend, and the notion of a "cliff-like decline" is unfounded [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a comprehensive plan by the Henan provincial government to enhance the integration into the national unified market, focusing on breaking down market entry barriers and improving operational efficiency for enterprises [1][2][7] - The plan includes ten key areas that are expected to directly benefit enterprises and the public, aiming to streamline processes and reduce administrative burdens [1][7] - Specific measures include the online mutual recognition of medical examination results, the simplification of enterprise migration processes, and the reduction of logistics costs [1][4][6] Group 2 - The "Market Access Barrier Cleanup and Rectification Work Plan" aims to eliminate unreasonable regulations and practices that create market entry barriers, establishing a fair market environment [2][7] - The "Enterprise Migration Facilitation Reform Work Plan" proposes to integrate multiple registration processes into a single step, aiming to reduce the processing time for enterprise migration to six working days by the end of 2025 [3][7] - The "Logistics Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement Work Plan" sets a target for the total social logistics volume in Henan to exceed 20 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with logistics costs as a percentage of GDP reduced to around 12.8% [4][5][7] Group 3 - The "Medical Institution Examination and Inspection Result Mutual Recognition Work Plan" aims for 100% mutual recognition of examination results within medical alliances by the end of 2025, reducing unnecessary medical expenses for patients [6][10] - The "Social Security Service Facilitation Work Plan" focuses on improving the efficiency of social security transfer processes for individuals moving across regions, ensuring timely and standardized service [6][9] - The plan emphasizes the importance of collaborative regulatory efforts through the "One Industry, One Inspection" model to minimize the frequency of administrative checks on enterprises [3][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of setting economic growth targets for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, considering the current domestic and international challenges [2][4][7] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's average economic growth rate was around 5%, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1][5][6] - The need for deepening reforms in key areas is highlighted to address issues such as low consumer demand, real estate market adjustments, and external uncertainties [1][9][23] Group 2 - The proposed economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 5%, which aligns with the goal of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 [8][4] - The articles discuss the necessity of expanding effective demand through measures such as stabilizing the real estate market, increasing residents' income, and optimizing consumption policies [9][10][16] - The importance of reforming the household registration system is noted, as it can enhance consumption willingness among migrant populations and stimulate urban demand [11][12] Group 3 - The articles suggest that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the inventory of unsold properties and a gradual recovery in sales [16][17] - Recommendations for the real estate market include reducing government intervention, easing purchase restrictions, and providing financial support to homebuyers [17][18] - The concept of a new real estate development model is introduced, focusing on a balanced relationship between government and market forces, and promoting a dual housing supply system [18][19] Group 4 - The articles emphasize the need to address "involution" in competition by promoting fair competition and eliminating local protectionism [21][22] - Key reform areas for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include enhancing the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, establishing a unified national market, and improving macroeconomic governance [23][24] - The importance of expanding institutional openness and aligning with international trade rules is highlighted to enhance competitiveness and resilience in global supply chains [24][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, signifying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper reduced positions significantly, with the price fluctuating narrowly around 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 78,060 yuan. After the contract change, the premium in Shanghai was 95 yuan and 60 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was 780 yuan [2] - Overnight, the US CPI rose year - on - year, and the impact of tariffs was gradually emerging. The Fed was likely to "stand still" at the end of the month. Traders were advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot premium of 90 yuan in East China. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased by over 30,000 tons on Monday. The price broke the upward trend line, and there was short - term callback pressure [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan, with weak demand. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the industry had negative profits but some resilience [3] - The upward trend of alumina spot prices eased. The domestic operating capacity of alumina returned to a historical high, but the warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE was only over 20,000 tons, and the futures were unlikely to fall deeply [3] Zinc - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation, and the demand side had continuous negative feedback. The zinc price was weak, and the weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased to 231,600 lots, with a precipitation of 4.59 billion yuan in funds. The term structure flattened [4] - The expectation of increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. The key domestic meeting did not bring surprises, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds was continued [4] Aluminum - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation. LME aluminum broke below the 2000 - dollar mark, dragging down the domestic market. Technically, there was still room for downward adjustment [6] - The aluminum price was weak, and downstream buyers were waiting and watching. The supply difference between northern and southern electrolytic lead smelters still existed, and recycled lead holders were reluctant to sell. The refined - scrap price difference remained flat [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel market was in the traditional off - season, with weak spot trading mainly relying on low - price goods from traders [7] - The inventory of nickel iron increased to 37,000 tons, the inventory of refined nickel increased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 12,000 tons to 991,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel still had room to rebound, and traders were advised to wait for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line. The spot tin price was reduced by 1000 yuan to 263,600 yuan, with a premium of 230 yuan over the 2508 contract [8] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in June decreased to 4465 tons month - on - month. The strategy of short - selling was continued [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded with active trading and high positions. The spot trading activity was low, and downstream buyers were not willing to stock up [9] - The total market inventory reached a recent high of 141,000 tons, and traders continued to replenish stocks by 2430 tons to 41,000 tons. The price of Australian ore was 678 dollars. Short positions could be gradually established [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream polysilicon production in July increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants continued to rise [10] - The supply side had some constraints, and the fundamentals showed marginal improvement. The price was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and the change of warehouse receipts should be monitored [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 yuan/ton. The spot price of N - type re -投料 was 45,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream price increase began to transmit costs [11] - The current futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. The short - term trend was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in June 2025 was mixed. Although the Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, the demand declined significantly in June, with negative month - on - month growth in social retail and fixed - asset investment. Constraints on China's economic rebound are accumulating, including declining resident income, deteriorating real estate, and deepening deflation. For the stock market, due to the negative beta truncation effect of the national team's entry into the market, funds continue to drive the stock index up. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 June Economic Data Analysis - **GDP situation**: The real GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The Q2 GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter growth, better than last year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 was only 3.94%, a 0.65% decline from Q1. Low prices are still eroding the real growth rate [8] - **Supply - demand situation**: On the supply side, the industrial added value and service production index in June maintained a growth rate of about 6%. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment in June were 4.8% and - 0.1% respectively, lower than market expectations and showing a decline from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rates were negative, at a poor level compared to historical data. Consumption growth highly depends on subsidies, and the fiscal impulse from the early issuance of national debt is fading [12] - **Real estate situation**: In June, the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. The new construction area and sales area and amount all showed negative growth, and housing prices were accelerating their decline. The total capital source of real estate enterprises was still in a low - level shock. The real estate market has been deteriorating since Q2, and policies are needed to stop the decline [20] - **Resident income situation**: In Q2, the growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents was 5.08%, a 0.47% decline from Q1. Except for the increase in transfer net income, other income sources such as wage income and business net income declined. The pressure on domestic consumption will increase in the second half of the year [27] - **Industrial capacity utilization situation**: The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74%, a 0.1% decline from Q1. The mining and public utility industries were the main drags, while the manufacturing industry increased slightly. Some industries such as electronic information manufacturing and electrical equipment manufacturing saw an increase in capacity utilization, which may be related to export and investment [31] 3.2 Investment Suggestions - Although theoretically a GDP growth rate of about 4.7% in the second half of the year can achieve the full - year target, there are accumulating unfavorable factors for the economic rebound. It is necessary to increase the subsidy for consumer goods replacement and the efforts to stabilize the real estate market. For the stock market, unless there is a major change in US tariffs on China or a rapid decline in China's economic growth in Q3, the market may still ignore the fundamentals and remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate each stock index to cope with the rapidly rotating market [2][35]