Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, causing widespread concern among investors as major indices plummeted [2] - The decline is attributed to disappointing economic data and geopolitical instability, raising fears about the U.S. economic outlook [2] Japan's Economic Response - Japan has made substantial adjustments to its economic policies, increasing support for emerging industries, particularly in renewable energy and semiconductors [2] - This initiative has bolstered domestic market confidence and attracted international attention, with Japanese companies ramping up R&D investments and expanding into overseas markets [2] China's Economic Strategy - China is accelerating financial market reforms and further opening its market to attract foreign investment, injecting vitality into its financial landscape [3] - The country is also making significant strides in technology innovation, with sectors like 5G, artificial intelligence, and new energy vehicles thriving and gaining international recognition [3] Political Implications - The stock market crash poses a significant challenge for political figures like Trump, whose economic policies and reputation are under pressure due to the market's downturn [3] - Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates reflect his urgency to stabilize the economy amidst increasing international competition from countries like Japan and China [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies to reduce risk and enhance the stability of returns [1][2] Group 1: Diversification Strategy - Diversification is a key strategy in modern investment theory aimed at reducing risk through the allocation of assets across different categories [1] - Different asset classes often do not perform in sync, allowing for a balanced investment portfolio [1] - Stocks are influenced by macroeconomic factors and corporate earnings, while bonds are more stable and tied to interest rates [1] Group 2: Dimensions of Diversification - Diversification can occur across multiple dimensions, including cross-asset class, cross-industry, and cross-geography [2] - Cross-asset class diversification involves investing in various assets such as stocks, bonds, funds, and real estate [2] - Cross-industry diversification prevents concentration in a few sectors, spreading investments across finance, technology, consumer goods, and energy [2] - Cross-geography diversification mitigates the impact of economic fluctuations in a single region by investing in different countries and areas [2] Group 3: Benefits of Diversification - By employing a diversification strategy, investors can effectively lower risks associated with single assets or asset classes [2] - This approach helps avoid significant losses during adverse market conditions due to over-concentration in specific investments [2] - Diversification aligns with long-term wealth growth objectives for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, major asset classes generally recorded positive returns, but performance varied significantly among them, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks and gold showing substantial gains [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Asset Performance - Large-cap stocks achieved a return of 18.24%, significantly higher than the 2.79% return of small-cap stocks [2][4]. - Long-term government bonds yielded 9.38%, with approximately 6.9% of this return attributed to price increases from declining interest rates [4]. - Newly included gold assets saw a remarkable increase of 28.19% [5][6]. Long-term Return Effectiveness - The report addressed concerns regarding the long-term return calculations from 2005 to 2024, confirming that the historical returns are stable and provide valuable reference for investors [8][10][11]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios are lower than those at the end of 2004, indicating that the long-term return rates of the Chinese stock market are objectively stable [10][11]. Gold's Long-term Returns - From 2003 to 2024, Shanghai gold had an annualized return of 8.98%, while London gold from 1969 to 2024 had a return of 7.66% [13]. - Gold's performance is highly cyclical, with significant returns during periods of high inflation and geopolitical risk, but underperforming during stable economic conditions [14][15][16]. Diversification Benefits - The report illustrated the advantages of diversification, showing that as the number of stocks in a portfolio increases, the average return becomes more concentrated and predictable, reducing the risk of individual stock failures [18][19]. - Holding more than 10 stocks leads to diminishing returns in terms of average yield improvement, while the volatility approaches the market's systemic risk [19]. Risk Premium Analysis - The report decomposed the long-term risk premiums of various asset classes, indicating that all risk premiums are positive, with stocks offering the highest risk premium [22][23]. - The characteristics of risk premiums in China are similar to those in the U.S., suggesting that higher risks are compensated with higher returns over the long term [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of China's A-share market and its underlying patterns, comparing them with the U.S. stock market, and emphasizes the importance of long-term data in guiding investment decisions [1][2][16]. Group 1: Historical Performance and Patterns - The historical annualized return of China's A-share market from 2004 to 2023 is reported at 9.61%, which some believe is inflated due to the low starting point in 2004 [10]. - The analysis shows that 2004 was not the historical low point for A-share valuations, as both P/E and P/B ratios were higher in 2004 than in 2024, indicating that returns from valuation changes were negative [13][16]. - The article asserts that long-term returns across various asset classes can outpace inflation, with stocks yielding the highest returns, closely tied to economic growth [16][18]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The current low performance of the stock market may represent a cyclical undervaluation, presenting a potential investment opportunity if historical patterns hold true [2]. - In 2024, large-cap stocks, long-term government bonds, long-term credit bonds, and gold have shown significantly higher returns compared to historical averages, while small-cap stocks and short-term government bonds have underperformed [19][20]. - The article highlights that 70% of the 9.38% return from long-term government bonds in 2024 was due to price appreciation from declining interest rates, raising questions about future bond yield expectations [22]. Group 3: Individual Stock Investment Insights - The analysis of investing in individual stocks reveals that concentrating on a single stock yields an average return of only 3.92%, significantly lower than the overall market return [28]. - Diversifying by increasing the number of stocks held improves average returns and reduces volatility, suggesting that reducing reliance on individual stock selection can enhance investment outcomes [28][32]. - The article emphasizes that many investors overestimate their knowledge of specific companies and the market, leading to suboptimal investment results [30][31].

老婆昨天和我说，之前投城投债2年期的产品到期了，本金1000加利息（6.7%）已收到，暂时买了个3% 的理财过十一，节后我就要重新规划这笔钱的去向。 之前零星的聊过我有给家庭做财务配置规划，很多读者好奇，那今天正好说说这个。 我们家房产的比例不高，一共就北京一套，临海一套，不算投资，纯自住 ， 现在房价跌了，加起来也 不到2000。剩下资产都是金融资产，股票、债券、期货、港美、股权、信托、黄金、加密货币，甚至还 投了一点非标玩票。 看似种类不少，但本质上还是可以根据风险级别来划分。比如年化预期收益在6%以下的算低风险资 产，6-15%的算中风险资产，15%以上的算高风险资产。 行情好的时候策略比较积极，按照1:3:6配置，行情不好的时候就保守一下，改为2:4:4，或者2:5:3。资 金会在同一个风险级别的不同项目里互通，但不会随意跨风险级别流动，比如a股减仓了可以加仓美 股，但债券赎回来的钱不会买股票。 所以最近赎回来的这笔钱也肯定是找债券类的标的，不会说看到a股行情好就往里加仓，只是这几年债 券资产收益率跌的很厉害，现在只能买到5%左右的，所以我会从这笔钱里抽出一部分去增持链上资 产，以提升整体的收益率。 ...

"2018 年之后，就没见钱回来过。" 文丨高洪浩 宋玮 制图丨黄帧昕 编辑丨宋玮 "凭运气赚的钱，再凭实力亏掉"，这句话常被用来调侃这样一类典型：加入某家不被看好的创业公司，没 想到风口到来，公司蒸蒸日上，此后期权变现，经朋友推荐把钱丢进几个明星项目，不出意外，亏掉了。 过去二十年，腾飞的中国 TMT 行业让一批人白手起家便赚得不菲财富。 2022 年之前，他们出手阔绰。有人做天使投资，热衷于 winner picking（挑选赢家）；有人像买包一样投 基金；有人下股市搏杀，分别买入美团、拼多多和快手的股票以分散风险，却忘了它们都在同一只叫 "中 国 TMT" 的篮子里。 一位公司创始人，本着 "分散" 精神，把钱给了 10 个他认识的基金经理，这 10 个基金经理本着 "共识" 的 原则，又把钱都投到了一家公司里，结果就是这个创始人自己的公司。 上一笔财富的获得方式和体验，决定了他们相信什么。 整整一代创业者和投资人都是在长达 13 年的牛市中被教育起来的，2022 年当这个惊人的牛市结束之后， 他们看起来集体进入了一个价值混乱期。 "价值投资是不是不存在了？基本面是不是不存在了？" 一位被美元 VC 机 ...