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申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250514
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:22
Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The night - session prices of both crude oil and methanol rose. Crude oil prices were affected by US CPI data, inventory changes, and strategic reserve adjustments. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish, with开工 load and inventory conditions influencing its price [3] Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 479.5, 470.5, 61.96, 61.53, 66.60, and 66.10 respectively. The price changes were - 2.8, - 2.1, 0.90, 0.95, 1.61, and 1.55, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.58%, - 0.44%, 1.47%, 1.57%, 2.48%, and 2.40% [2] - The trading volumes were 77,046, 52,260, 290,296, 223,289, 417,955, and 270,581 respectively, and the open interests were 15,073, 24,340, 200,444, 280,659, 494,806, and 422,865 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2650, 863, - 18975, 9999, - 32629, and - 513 respectively [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 9.0, 470.5, 33.7, 0.3, 3.10, and 0.50 respectively, with previous values of 9.7, 182.6, 43.0, 14.7, 3.46, and 0.44 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2354, 2380, and 2291 respectively. The price changes were 20.0, 42.0, and 21.0, with percentage changes of 0.86%, 1.80%, and 0.93% respectively [2] - The trading volumes were 52,758, 990, and 766,446 respectively, and the open interests were 163,172, 3,319, and 764,051 respectively. The changes in open interests were 6087, - 542, and 6569 respectively [2] - The spot prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 260, 2465, 2230, and 2395 respectively, with price changes of 3, 10, 5, and 13 respectively [2] Market Commentary and Strategy Crude Oil - The night - session oil prices continued to rise. The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the month - on - month data turned from - 0.1% to 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.4% [3] - The API data showed that last week, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.287 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.374 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.675 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 850,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 500,000 barrels to 39.96 million barrels [3] Methanol - The night - session price of methanol rose by 2.1%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.99%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - As of May 8, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.65%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points compared to the previous period and 5.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - As of May 8, the coastal methanol inventory was 619,000 tons (at a historical low), an increase of 1,000 tons or 0.16% compared to April 30, and a decrease of 0.75% year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 212,000 tons [3] - According to incomplete statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the expected arrival volume of imported methanol ships from May 9 to May 25 is between 700,000 and 710,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish [3]
涤纶长丝市场近况交流
2025-05-13 15:19
涤纶长丝市场近况交流 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦对涤纶长丝直接出口影响小(占比 1.67%),但对整体纺织 品服装出口影响大(美国占中国总出口 11%,中国占美国进口 33%), 南亚东南亚国家难以完全承接中国订单,美国或接受高价继续采购。 • 2025 年一季度中国纺织品服装出口增速 1%,低于孟加拉(6.4%)、越 南(11.1%)等国,但美国库存偏低,中国仍有机会通过提升产品附加值 保持竞争力。 • 2025 年全球主要经济体原油库存低位,海外成品库存也较低,一季度美 国、欧盟库存增速分别为 18.9%、24.7%,若油价维持低位缓步抬升,中 国纺织品服装直接出口将受益,一季度化纤机织物出口同比增速达 16%。 • 2025 年中国纺织品服装出口金额表现较弱,因成品端出口单价下降显著, 如化纤梭织物服装单价下降 10.9%,导致涤纶长丝、中端纺织品、服装出 口金额失速。4 月原料价格下跌,中端主动去库存。 • 目前涤纶长丝类坯布库存 33 天,高于五年均值 30 天,但 4 月底到 5 月初 订单环比抬升。终端 DTY 工厂和纱厂已开始去库存,DTY 大厂库存从 33 天降至 23 天,P ...
今日重点关注的财经数据与事件:2025年5月13日 周二
news flash· 2025-05-12 16:01
Group 1 - Key Point 1: The U.S. President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which may impact geopolitical relations and economic ties in the region [2] - Key Point 2: The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its April monetary policy meeting, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions [2] - Key Point 3: The UK will report on the ILO unemployment rate for March, the unemployment rate for April, and the number of unemployment benefit claims for April, which are critical indicators of the labor market [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Germany and the Eurozone will release the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May, which is a key indicator of economic expectations [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will publish the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for April, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, including both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted figures [2] - Key Point 3: The Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to give a speech, which may provide insights into the central bank's outlook and policy stance [2]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250508
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 03:29
光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报(2025 年 5 月 8 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落,其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶,跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶,跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘,下跌 7.1 元/桶, | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变,但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加,在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际,这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示,经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上,决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示,截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周,美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶,至 4.384 亿桶,此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...
美国能源信息署(EIA):美国上周EIA原油库存减少203万桶,彭博用户预计下降110万桶、分析师预期下降163.233万桶,之前一周减少269.6万桶。
news flash· 2025-05-07 14:33
美国能源信息署(EIA):美国上周EIA原油库存减少203万桶,彭博用户预计下降110万桶、分析师预 期下降163.233万桶,之前一周减少269.6万桶。 ...
美国至5月2日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。
news flash· 2025-05-07 14:21
美国至5月2日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...
原油月报:关税政策影响下,三大机构下调需求预期-20250507
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-07 07:26
证券研究报告 行业研究——数据专题 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | 本次评级——看好 | | --- | | 上次评级——看好 | 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500518070001 邮箱:zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号:S1500524040001 联系电话:13261695353 邮箱:liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大 厦B座 邮编:100031 原油月报:关税政策影响下, [Table_Title三大机构下调需求预期 ] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 原油价格回顾 5 | | --- | | 全球原油库存 6 | | 全球原油供给 8 | | 全球原油供给总览: 8 | | 全球主要区域原油供给情况: 9 | | 全球原油需求 18 | | 全球原油需求总览: 18 | | 全球主要区域原油需求情况: 20 | | ...
美国石油协会(API)数据显示,5月2日当周,美国API原油库存 -449万桶,分析师预期 -250万桶,之前一周 +380万桶。
news flash· 2025-05-06 20:40
美国石油协会(API)数据显示,5月2日当周,美国API原油库存 -449万桶,分析师预期 -250万桶,之 前一周 +380万桶。 ...
今日重点关注的财经数据与事件:2025年5月7日 周三
news flash· 2025-05-06 16:13
⑫ 次日02:30 美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件:2025年5月7日 周三 ① 待定 中国4月外汇储备 ② 01:00 美国至5月6日10年期国债竞拍-得标利率 ③ 01:00 美国至5月6日10年期国债竞拍-投标倍数 ④ 04:30 美国至5月2日当周API原油库存 ⑤ 09:00 国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会 ⑥ 14:45 法国3月贸易帐 ⑦ 17:00 欧元区3月零售销售月率 ⑧ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA原油库存 ⑨ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑩ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑪ 次日02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 相关链接 ...
美国能源信息署(EIA):美国上周EIA原油库存下降270万桶,彭博用户预计增加78.5万桶、分析师预期减少78.950万桶,之前一周增加24.4万桶。
news flash· 2025-04-30 14:35
美国能源信息署(EIA):美国上周EIA原油库存下降270万桶,彭博用户预计增加78.5万桶、分析师预 期减少78.950万桶,之前一周增加24.4万桶。 ...