Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].

Report Summary Core View - In the week ending July 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, continuing the upward trend from the previous period. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.9% to 94.7%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day but remained at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, reaching the lowest level since the week of May 9. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the production decline. Gasoline inventories declined from a high level, diesel inventories continued to decline against the seasonal trend, and the apparent demand for refined oil products increased. The seasonal accumulation of total crude oil and petroleum product inventories has not stopped, and the single - week data has limited indication [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes (Unit: million barrels)**: US commercial crude oil inventory change was +7.07 (previous value: +3.845); Cushing crude oil inventory change was +0.464 (previous value: -1.493); strategic petroleum inventory change was +0.238 (previous value: +0.239); gasoline inventory change was -2.658 (previous value: +4.188); diesel inventory change was -0.825 (previous value: -1.71); jet fuel inventory change was -0.909 (previous value: +0.631); fuel oil inventory change was -0.453 (previous value: -0.389); crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) was +6.411 (previous value: +9.361) [6]. - **Production and Demand (Unit: thousand barrels per day)**: US crude oil production was 13,385 (previous value: 13,433); refined oil apparent demand was 20,863 (previous value: 20,487); gasoline apparent demand was 9,159 (previous value: 8,640); diesel apparent demand was 3,668 (previous value: 4,043); crude oil imports were 6,013 (previous value: 6,919); crude oil exports were 2,757 (previous value: 2,305); refinery crude oil processing volume was 17,006 (previous value: 17,105); refinery utilization rate was 94.7% (previous value: 94.9%) [6].

美国一周原油库存增加707.0万桶，市场预估为减少207.1万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and the date would not change. He might send a tax - levying letter to the EU in the next two days. At a cabinet meeting, Trump said he was still planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals [3]. - The arrival of crude oil at Shandong refineries continued to decline but remained higher than the same period last year. - Sources said that OPEC+ might approve another production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September at its August 3 meeting [3]. - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4 was 7.128 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of February 7, 2025 [3]. b. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [4]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels per day, an increase of 975,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel production from major refineries increased, while that from independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The focus for July 9, 2025, includes various economic data releases and events, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will report API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4, which is crucial for understanding oil supply dynamics [2] - Key Point 3: China's June CPI year-on-year data will be released, providing insights into inflation trends in the region [2] - Key Point 4: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy outlook [2] - Key Point 5: The U.S. will also release wholesale sales month-on-month data for May, which is important for gauging consumer demand [2] - Key Point 6: EIA crude oil inventory data will be published, including specific figures for Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves, which are vital for market analysis [2] - Key Point 7: The U.S. will conduct a 10-year Treasury auction, with results including the bid-to-cover ratio and yield, influencing bond market sentiment [2] - Key Point 8: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into future interest rate decisions [2]

Economic Events and Data Summary - Japan's May trade balance will be released at 07:50 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - France's May trade balance will be available at 14:45 [1] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be available at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's trade balance for May will be released at 07:50 [1] - Key Point 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - Key Point 3: RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 4: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 5: France's trade balance for May will be available at 14:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 04:30 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]

【美国原油供需情况及全球原油市场动态受关注】当周美国原油产量基本平稳，环比降0.2万桶/日，至 1343.3万桶/日；贝克休斯石油钻井数减6台，处于历史低位，显示页岩油产量增长动力不足。同时，美 国原油进口量环比增97.5万桶/日，出口量大减196.5万桶/日，净进口量显著增加。 需求方面，美国原油 表需小幅下行，但仍高于历史同期均值。炼厂加工量环比小幅增长，整体需求端表现符合旺季预期。 库存上，6月27日当周美国商业库存累库384.5万桶，因净进口量增加；库欣地区去库149.3万桶，需求地 PADD3库存累库504.2万桶。 成品油供应方面，上周炼厂开工率回升0.2%至94.9%，处于较高水平。美 国炼厂检修量低位，预计旺季开工率维持高位。 成品油消费端，表需环比基本平稳，各类油品走势分 化。出行方面，汽油需求大幅下降，航煤基本平稳；工业油品方面，馏分油和丙烷&丙烯表需均小幅上 升。七月暑期旅游旺季，高速行驶里程和坐飞机人数处于高位。 成品油库存方面，汽油累库418.8万 桶，因需求回落、产量增加；馏分燃料油去库171.0万桶，因需求持续走强。 全球原油市场，EIA数据 显示原油小幅累库，旺季需求符合预期。 ...

Market Overview - As of July 3, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about geopolitical instability and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for August rose by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; ICE Brent futures for September rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase [1] Key Information - In the first five months of 2025, China's crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 42.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average. Conversely, imports from the Asia-Pacific region rose to 15.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and up 6.3 percentage points from the five-year average. Imports from South America accounted for 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the five-year average [2] - Shandong independent refineries operated at a crude distillation capacity of 50.74%, down 0.74 percentage points from the previous week. Specific operations included maintenance at Hualian, while Changyi's crude distillation unit was operational, and other secondary units remained idle [2] - Ecuador's state-owned oil pipeline company OCP has preemptively closed its crude oil pipeline to construct a new bypass due to accelerated erosion issues. Meanwhile, Petroamazonas is repairing pipelines along a new route, with leakage issues under control [2] - Polish refiner Orlen has ceased purchasing Russian crude oil for its Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic, marking the end of its last contract with Rosneft [2] Production and Investment - Mexico's oil production is expected to drop to levels not seen since the late 1970s, with an average daily output of 1.62 million barrels from January to May 2024, the lowest since 1979. June exports fell to a historic low of 529,000 barrels per day due to declining production and reduced output from the Dos Bocas refinery [3] - Argentine energy company Pampa Energia announced a $426 million investment to build an oil and gas processing plant in the Vaca Muerta shale region, located in the Neuquén province, with plans for production to commence next year [3] Price Dynamics - Overnight oil price increases were primarily driven by geopolitical events and trade developments, although fundamental factors limited the extent of the price rise. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, increasing risk premiums. Additionally, a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, boosted demand expectations. However, OPEC+ production increases have been fully priced in, and U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, below the healthy summer threshold of 9 million barrels, raising concerns about consumption fatigue [4] Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with WTI resistance levels at [67,68], Brent pressure at [69,70], and SC at [510,520]. Options trading may capture volatility opportunities, for reference only [5]