11月28日，港股科技板块早盘表现略微震荡热门ETF中，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）高开后震荡攀 升，截至发稿现涨近0.5%，盘中成交额逼近14亿元。成分股中，地平线机器人-W、华虹半导体、阿里 巴巴-W、蔚来-SW、京东集团-SW等涨幅居前。 中银国际在研报中称，产业链景气度持续验证与政策催化预期强化，科技主线有望回归。AI产业链特 别是国产算力是我国先进制造业的重要一环，也是智能化产业代表，在当前大背景下，更是急需加快科 技自立自强的重点领域，此次政策催化预期强化，产业链有望持续受益。产业链景气度持续验证与政策 催化预期强化之下，配置可逐步回归科技主线，特别是国产算力、国产存储芯片等领域。 国联民生证券认为，展望后市，近期市场延续"高开低走+低量能"的趋势，承接资金不足，热点也较为 杂乱，指数分化明显，市场仍处于震荡修复阶段，以结构性机会为主。持仓上谨慎追高，可埋伏带长期 逻辑的低位行业个股，如"十五五"规划中提到的四大新兴产业和六大未来产业，静待政策面消息拉动； 短期可适当参与科技板块中，前期超跌且有消息催化的消费、AI应用、机器人等的轮动机会。 ...

Group 1 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) experienced a high of nearly 4% in the morning but closed with a gain of 1.28% [1] - The strong performance of the integrated circuit ETF is attributed to the market's recognition of domestic computing power and the involvement of certain manufacturers in Google's OCS supply chain [2][6] - Google's deployment of optical circuit switches (OCS) in data centers is a significant factor, as OCS allows direct transmission of data using light, avoiding the need for conversion to electrical signals, resulting in lower power consumption and latency [2] Group 2 - OCS technology has advantages such as lower power consumption and faster signal transmission compared to traditional electronic switching, but it faces challenges due to its immature technology and incomplete supply chain [2][3] - The current mainstream OCS solutions include MEMS mirrors, digital liquid crystal, piezoelectric ceramics, and silicon photonic waveguides, with Google utilizing a MEMS-based approach for its Palomar OCS [3] - The supply chain for OCS is currently fragmented, but the recognition of overseas computing power is growing, with Google's AI ecosystem creating a competitive advantage across chips, networks, models, and applications [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.29% at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.44%. The market experienced a high of over 2% in the morning before retreating [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 1.72 trillion yuan, slightly down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Integrated Circuit Sector - The Integrated Circuit ETF saw a strong performance, initially rising nearly 4% before closing up 1.28%. This was attributed to the growing market recognition of domestic computing power and the involvement of certain manufacturers in Google's Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) supply chain [2][7] - OCS technology allows for direct transmission of data using light, avoiding the need for conversion to electrical signals, which results in lower power consumption and latency. However, the technology is still maturing and lacks a complete industrial chain [2] Consumer Electronics Sector - The Consumer Electronics ETF rose by 0.36%, driven by favorable policies and new product launches. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, categorizing consumer electronics and smart wearable products as key consumption areas [9] - Global demand for consumer electronics is gradually recovering, with smartphone revenue expected to grow by 5% year-on-year by Q3 2025, reaching a historical high [9] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery industry saw significant gains, particularly in solid-state battery concepts. The price of electrolyte has risen to 55,750 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 180% since the beginning of the year, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 165,500 yuan per ton [11] - A major development in solid-state batteries includes the establishment of the first large-capacity solid-state battery production line in China, which is currently in small-scale testing. Full-scale production is anticipated around 2030, although challenges remain in technology and cost [11]

Core Insights - Google's new AI model performance is comparable to or exceeds ChatGPT, trained entirely on self-developed TPU chips, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] - The A-share optical module sector has seen a collective surge, with the Wind optical module index rising for three consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The AI computing power sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with market focus on the potential challenge posed by Google's TPU technology to Nvidia's GPU [1] - Investors are adopting a cautious strategy, prioritizing investments in "computing power arms dealers" that supply both tech giants, leading to strong performance in leading optical module companies [1] - In contrast, stocks related to Google's unique OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology are underperforming, indicating a market preference for suppliers with bilateral cooperation foundations during this period of uncertainty [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - As overseas AI concept trading becomes crowded, funds may gradually rotate to the undervalued domestic computing power sector, presenting potential opportunities for future investments [1] - The current market situation mirrors that of June-July, where the optical module sector surged while the domestic semiconductor sector has yet to show clear signs of a breakout [3] - Historical trends suggest that when overseas computing power supply chains become overly crowded, funds tend to shift towards the more cost-effective and underexplored domestic computing power chain [3] - On November 26, the domestic computing power sector showed signs of a rally, indicating that some investors are beginning to position themselves for future gains, highlighting the potential for the currently low-priced domestic computing power sector to attract significant attention [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.02% and 2.14% respectively [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7833 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 28.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3] AI Hardware Sector - The AI hardware sector experienced significant gains, with key stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) rising by 13.25%, reaching a historical high [4] - Recent catalysts for the AI sector include major investments from companies like Amazon, which announced a $50 billion investment in AI and high-performance computing capabilities, and Alibaba's commitment to enhance its AI capabilities with potential additional investments beyond the previously pledged 380 billion yuan [4][5] - The communication equipment index, representing the AI hardware sector, showed a strong upward trend today [6] AI Applications - The AI applications sector showed signs of weakness, with a lack of sustained momentum and shifting core stocks, indicating a lack of focus within the sector [7][8] - For a sector to experience significant growth, it typically requires a strong leading stock to drive market sentiment, which has not been evident in the AI applications sector since October 30 [8] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is viewed positively, as it is in the early stages of development, with expectations for mass production by 2026 [10] - The industry is anticipated to reshape manufacturing, services, and household life, becoming a next-generation platform following smartphones and electric vehicles [10] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a pullback, primarily due to profit-taking, although some stocks rebounded after initial declines [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to conduct commercial trials for satellite IoT services, aiming to enhance market supply and stimulate industry growth [10][11] Consumer Goods Sector - A new implementation plan was released by six government departments to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 and a high-quality development framework by 2030 [11] - Following this announcement, stocks related to the internet celebrity economy and e-commerce saw a rise [12]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is performing well this year, leading to increased sensitivity in the market, especially during sideways trading periods. Investors are advised to focus on opportunities for buying on dips while being cautious of chasing hot concepts that may lead to losses [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market liquidity is improving, and there are clear signs of a bull market, with various sectors expected to perform accordingly. The upcoming performance vacuum period starting in November is anticipated to make many sectors more active, as is typical in the second half of the year [1]. - Investors are encouraged to select sectors with strong fundamentals and robust performance support, as these will provide higher safety margins. Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging and buying on dips are recommended for participation [1]. Group 2: Focus on Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector includes both overseas and domestic computing power directions. For overseas computing power, the communication ETF (515880) is recommended due to its high correlation with the overseas computing industry chain and expected strong performance [2]. - In the domestic computing power sector, the semiconductor industry chain is crucial. For those seeking flexibility, the GPU-related opportunities within the semiconductor chain should be monitored, particularly through the chip ETF (512760) and the more elastic science and technology chip ETF (589100). For investors prioritizing safety, the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) is highlighted for its relatively low valuation and high safety [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1]. Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 62% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales in data center computing and networking products [3][14]. - Google's recent launch of the AI image model Nano Banana Pro has generated significant market excitement, enhancing expectations for the Google chain and indicating a competitive landscape in AI model development [4][15]. - The domestic computing power market is experiencing multiple catalysts, with opportunities arising from potential changes in U.S. GPU export policies and advancements in domestic chip capabilities [5][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of significant growth in the domestic computing power market by 2026 [1]. Market Performance - The overall market saw declines during the week of November 17-21, 2025, with the Shenwan Communication Index dropping by 2.51% and the ChiNext Index falling by 6.15% [9][19]. Key Developments - Nvidia's strong financial performance and diverse customer demand counter the "AI bubble" narrative, with plans to deploy substantial AI infrastructure [3][14]. - Google's Nano Banana Pro model showcases advanced capabilities, leading to a surge in social media interest and raising concerns about the competitive landscape in AI [4][15]. - Domestic computing power is expected to benefit from potential U.S. policy changes regarding GPU exports, which could enhance capital expenditures in China [5][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the Google chain, domestic supernodes, and commercial aerospace sectors, highlighting specific firms such as Guangke Technology and Cambrian [8][19].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market's semiconductor industry chain is experiencing an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 1% [1] - Notable stock performances include Huahong Semiconductor up over 5%, SMIC and Jiantao Laminated Board up over 4%, and several other stocks like Hongteng Precision, Meitu, and Xiaomi Group rising over 3% [1] - The first Hong Kong ETF focusing on the semiconductor industry chain (159131) has seen a price increase of 2.26%, indicating a potential recovery trend, with a trading volume exceeding 33 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a new storage cycle driven by emerging technologies, with AI demand expected to boost the market [2] - The China Semiconductor Industry Association predicts that the total sales of the chip design industry will reach 835.73 billion yuan by 2025, a 29.4% increase from 2024 [3] - The domestic chip development is seen as a long-term trend, with current conditions viewed as the best time for growth in the sector [5] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The newly launched Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) tracks an index composed of 70% hardware and 30% software, focusing on semiconductor, electronics, and computer software sectors [7] - The ETF includes 42 Hong Kong hard-tech companies, with significant weights assigned to SMIC (20.27%), Xiaomi Group (9.11%), and Huahong Semiconductor (5.64%) [7] - The index aims to capture the performance of the AI hard-tech sector, excluding major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, thus providing a sharper focus on the semiconductor industry [7]

国金证券研报称，认为当前AI发展并无明显泡沫，北美四大CSP（谷歌、meta、微软、亚马逊）高资本 开支具备可持续性，且有进一步提升空间。OpenAI、英伟达、AMD等企业的供应链金融仍然较为初 期，且采用股权投资形式，较互联网泡沫时期的债权形式的供应链金融风险有所降低。股价层面，相较 于互联网泡沫时期，当前主要AI企业的股价增长主要来自EPS驱动，AI to B商业模式的逐渐闭环以及融 资环境的友好，有望继续支持AI高速发展，继续看好AI核心硬件标的。 中信证券研报指出，2025年11月25日晚间，阿里巴巴发布2026财年第二季度财报，云收入同比+34%， AI相关产品收入连续9个季度实现三位数同比增长；本季度资本开支为315亿元，过去四个季度在AI+云 基础设施的资本开支约1200亿元。阿里持续坚定投入AI基础设施，我们认为这标志着国产算力的自主 可控进程正在稳步推进，国产算力有望迎来行业拐点。我们建议关注国产算力投资机遇，聚焦卡位精 准、长期竞争力凸显的龙头。 消息面上，据21世纪经济报道，消息面上，谷歌近期达成一项重要合作——Meta计划从2026年起通过 谷歌云租用TPU算力，并于2027年在自有数 ...

Group 1 - The overall expansion of AI is significant, particularly in North America, with a focus on key segments such as optical modules, PCBs, and servers, where A-share companies have established a strong market presence and high barriers to entry [1] - The rapid growth in market size is driven by the increased deployment of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips, with large-scale customers deploying 1,000 units of the GB200-NVL72 cabinets weekly, each containing 72 GPUs, leading to substantial revenue generation [1] - As downstream manufacturers purchase these computing chips, they also acquire essential networking components like PCBs and optical modules, where A-share companies hold a competitive advantage both domestically and internationally [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance this year, particularly with domestic AI models like DeepSeek, which can compete with global standards despite some hardware limitations [2] - Since August, the semiconductor sector has experienced another wave of strong performance, indicating a robust market response [2] - The narrative around the market has become clearer since April, with North America's AI development accelerating, leading to a shift in investment focus towards the semiconductor sector as capital expenditures transition to revenue and profit growth [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor manufacturing supply chain has seen improvements in yield and capacity expansion, which are crucial for supporting GPU production, leading to rising expectations for the overall performance of semiconductor companies [4] - The current market is in a performance vacuum, with accelerated sector rotation, but technology remains a consensus investment theme among institutions and individual investors [4] - Investment strategies should be tailored to risk preferences, with recommendations for various ETFs based on exposure to overseas and domestic computing capabilities, emphasizing a long-term growth approach in the technology sector [4]