韩国央行会议纪要：一位委员表示，委员会应维持宽松的货币政策立场，以应对疲软的经济状况。一位 委员表示，未来任何降息措施都应谨慎考虑。 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

俄罗斯政府预计央行将继续宽松货币政策。 ...

6月12日，韩国央行行长李昌镛表示，韩国央行将根据对宏观经济和经济指标的密切评估，来决定降息 的具体时机和幅度。李昌镛指出，央行"目前"将维持宽松货币政策。他表示，如果降息幅度过大，可能 会在首尔首都圈引发房价上涨的风险，而不是有效推动经济复苏。 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The US ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, suggesting a decline in the labor market [2] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges with a reduction of 8,000 jobs, the largest drop this year, reflecting issues in the economic structure and potentially increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The consumer price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year as of April, leading investors to buy gold as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The price of spot gold rebounded from a low to a high of 3338.25 before retreating to around 3325.50 USD/oz, indicating a short-term downtrend [3] - The current technical pattern suggests a trading strategy where investors should consider short positions near the resistance level of 3340.00, with a stop-loss at 3377.00 and a take-profit at 3273.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - Spot silver prices continued to rise, currently quoted at 36.800, with a clear upward trend observed in the 1H chart [5] - The technical analysis recommends waiting for a price pullback to the support level of 36.340 to open long positions, with a stop-loss at 35.960 and a take-profit at 36.850 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates in the Eurozone to stabilize market expectations and address economic weaknesses, while facing structural challenges that will influence future economic performance [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - On June 5, the ECB reduced the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [1]. - The ECB's decision comes amid a weakening economic growth momentum, with GDP growth expectations for 2025 revised down to 0.9% [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Eurozone economy is experiencing internal demand deficiencies and external trade environment deterioration, exacerbated by increased tariffs on steel and aluminum products by the U.S. [1][3]. - The Eurozone inflation rate fell to 1.9% in May, the first time below the 2% target in eight months, providing room for the ECB to implement rate cuts [1][2]. Group 3: Impact of Rate Cuts - Short-term, the rate cuts are expected to lower financing costs, boosting consumption and investment, particularly in conjunction with fiscal stimulus plans like Germany's €46 billion corporate tax reduction [2]. - Long-term, the rate cuts indicate a shift in ECB policy focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing growth, although future rate paths remain data-dependent [2][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - European stock markets have shown positive performance, with the German DAX index up 22% year-to-date and the Stoxx50 index rising 10.6% [3]. - However, challenges persist, including weak growth in manufacturing and services, and potential conflicts between ECB monetary policy and national fiscal policies [3][4]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Key uncertainties include the progress of trade disputes, inflation trends, and the advancement of structural reforms, which are crucial for enhancing economic resilience [4]. - The ECB's recent rate cut is viewed as a defensive measure to respond to current pressures while allowing flexibility for future policy adjustments [4].

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 据新华社消息，当地时间6月5日，欧洲中央银行宣布，将欧元区三大关键利率分别下调25个基点。这是 自去年3月欧央行宣布改变货币政策运作框架的第八次降息，和去年6月12日首次降息相比，欧元区的存 款机制利率、主要再融资利率（固定利率）和边际借贷利率分别从3.75%、4.25%和4.5%下降至2.00%、 2.15%、2.40%。 如此频繁且大规模降息背后，是高度不确定的世界市场给欧元区经济增长带来的压力与日俱增。诚如欧 央行官网首页公布的今年5月22日的一个讨论主题"贸易、紧张局势、关税以及整个充满不确定性的世 界"所展现的信息，面对地缘政治发展和全球金融失衡，欧央行维持物价稳定、确保充分就业、实现国 际收支平衡和推动经济增长的政策目标正面临着越来越大的挑战。 主要原因在于，宏观经济调控非常讲究财政政策和货币政策的配合使用，这也是IS-LM模型的基本原 理。比如，在利率水平极低的时候，人们不愿意进行投资，而更愿意持有现金，这个时候政府若用货币 政策刺激往往效果甚微，这就是所谓的凯恩斯陷阱（Keynes trap）。在全球范围内，日本平成时代的样 本就是一个典型例 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a four-day winning streak in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3385.36 points, up 0.04% [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) showed strong performance, with a total trading volume of 2.769 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 18.82%, both ranking first among similar products in the market [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation for the first time at the beginning of the month, injecting 1 trillion yuan into the banking system for a period of three months (91 days) [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, consisting of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and favoring large and mid-cap styles [2] - Investors can access quality core asset opportunities through the A500 Index ETF linked funds (Class A 022453; Class C 022454) [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in three key interest rates, effective June 11, marking the eighth rate cut in a year, signaling further monetary easing [1] - After the rate cut, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate are set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [1] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, and the ECB is equipped to handle upcoming uncertainties at the current interest rate levels [1] Group 2 - The ECB unexpectedly lowered its inflation forecast for the Eurozone, projecting an overall inflation rate of 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with the 2026 forecast being particularly surprising to the market [2] - The Eurozone's economic growth is showing signs of slowing, with projected GDP growth rates of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [2] - The ECB noted that global trade policy uncertainties may continue to suppress business investment and exports in the short term, but improvements in financing conditions will enhance the Eurozone's ability to withstand external shocks [2] Group 3 - The ECB will adopt a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy, without committing to a specific interest rate path [3] - This approach aligns with market expectations and allows for future policy flexibility [3] Group 4 - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) may intensify, as the ECB continues its easing while the Fed has not cut rates this year, resulting in a rate gap of over 2 percentage points [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly [4] - Fed officials view inflation as a primary risk, with many preferring to delay rate cuts due to the uncertain impact of tariffs on the economy [4] Group 5 - Fed officials express concerns about inflation risks, particularly due to the potential impact of Trump's trade policies, which may continue to push prices higher through various channels [5] - Current monetary policy is deemed effective in responding to macroeconomic changes [5] Group 6 - The impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth and employment remains unclear, but there are concerns about their short-term effects on inflation [6] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's pace of rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [6]

| 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 42319.74 | -108 | -0.25% | | | 纳斯达克 | 19298.45 | -162.04 | -0.83% | | | 标普500 | 5939.3 | -31.51 | -0.53% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5410.55 | 5.4 | 0.10% | | | 英国富时100 | 8811.04 | 9.75 | 0.11% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7790.27 | -14.40 | -0.18% | | | 德国DAX | 24323.58 | 47.1 | 0.19% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1137.28 | -1.03 | -0.09% | | | 上证信数 | 3384.1 | 7.9 | 0.23% | | | 深证成指 | | 10203.5/L _ 58.92 | 0.58% | | | 创业板指anghul.co | | 2048.62 goguda23,68m | 1.17% | | | ...