摘要2025年11月6日，实物黄金中国黄金基础金价报价913.8元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了6元/克。零 售价今天报价929.8元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了6元/克。回购价今日价格910.8元/克，相比上一个交 易日上涨了6元/克。 2025年11月3日 913.8 929.8 910.8 元/克 2025年11月1日 907.8 923.8 904.8 元/克 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 基本面： 11月5日，美国国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默和国会众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯呼吁总统特朗 普与国会两党领袖会面，商讨结束政府"停摆"及应对医疗政策问题。两位民主党领袖在致信中表 示："民主党人随时准备与你面对面会谈。"截至目前，特朗普仍坚持在民主党投票支持重启政府前，不 与其展开谈判。 2025年11月6日，实物黄金中国黄金基础金价报价913.8元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了6元/克。零售价 今天报价929.8元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了6元/克。回购价今日价格910.8元/克，相比上一个交易日 上涨了6元/克。 附表： 中国黄金 基础金价 零售价 回购价 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may face a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position trades with a slightly bullish trend, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,630 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina both increased [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The main - to - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread of alumina is - 40 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.60, up 0.14 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 550,450 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 4,594 tons to 113,574 tons; alumina inventory increased by 8,704 tons to 248,311 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 255 yuan/ton, down 455 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 270 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the basis of alumina is 3 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production increased by 7.42 tons to 799.90 tons, while demand decreased by 21.49 tons to 704.31 tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 tons to 46.85 tons [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: Alumina exports increased by 7 tons to 25 tons, and imports decreased by 3.44 tons to 6 tons. The import of aluminum scrap decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons, and the export increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - side**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly due to the commissioning and resumption of previous capacity replacement and technological transformation projects [2]. - **Demand - side**: The production of aluminum products increased by 35.18 tons to 590 tons, and the production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.06 tons to 65.65 tons. The demand for downstream aluminum products is boosted by the development of new energy vehicles and other fields [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of automobiles increased by 47.42 million to 322.65 million. The production of aluminum alloy is 177.60 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Indices**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.43, down 0.072 compared to the previous period, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger vehicle market is 58.7% [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter by up to 2 percentage points [2]. - China will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff on US - imported goods for one year, retaining a 10% tariff [2].

Core Points - The core issue identified is communication, particularly regarding economic concerns affecting the Republican Party's political prospects [1][4] Economic Indicators - Trump highlighted three positive economic indicators: record-high stock market, steady wage growth, and increased job availability for American workers [3] - He claimed that nearly 2 million more American workers are employed compared to when he took office [3] - Trump stated that the U.S. has attracted $18 trillion in investments since his return to the presidency [3] Political Implications - Trump acknowledged that the responsibility for the government shutdown is largely attributed to the Republican Party, emphasizing the need to reopen the government to avoid further political backlash [4] - He indicated that the government shutdown has a significant negative impact on the Republican Party according to polling data [4] Shift in Campaign Focus - Following the Democratic victories in local elections, the Trump administration plans to shift its political messaging to focus on cost of living issues [5] - The political director of the Republican National Committee noted that the focus on living costs was crucial for the success of winning candidates [6] - The failure of Republican candidates in New Jersey and Virginia was attributed to their lack of effective communication on affordability issues [6]

美国联邦航空局局长布赖恩·贝德福德在发布会上说，政府"停摆"导致人员配备压力日益增加。如果采取运力削减措施后压力仍然持续增加，将在这40座机 场"采取更多追加举措"。 美国空管人员被迫无薪上班 0:00 当地时间11月5日，美国联邦政府进入"停摆"第36天，成为美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府"停摆"。美国交通部长达菲当日表示，如果"停摆"持续，交 通部将从7日开始削减全美40座繁忙机场10%的运输量，以降低国家空域风险。 达菲当天在首都华盛顿一场新闻发布会上宣布这一举措。他说，这40座机场的压力正与日俱增，他将于当天晚些时候与一些航空运营商高层会面，商讨如何 安全实施运力削减举措。 "停摆"若持续 美国或将关闭部分空域 据航班追踪网站数据，4日美国境内以及进出美国的航班延误近4300架次，其中151架次取消。达菲4日表示，情况可能会恶化，因为政府"停摆"短期内没有 结束迹象，空管员一直领不到工资。他警告说，随着11月下旬假期临近，将出现航班大规模延误甚至取消，届时，出于安全考虑，美国交通部可能不得不关 闭部分空域，因为"根本无法控制局面"。 责编：黄之安、卢思宇 据了解，此次对全美繁忙机场的运力削减将影响数 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, becoming the longest in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019 [1] - Senate Democratic leaders have formally requested a bipartisan meeting with President Trump, indicating a potential thaw in political deadlock [1][4] - The economic impact of the shutdown is significant, with estimated losses of approximately $15 billion per week, affecting various sectors [4][8] Political Developments - Following recent electoral victories, Democratic leaders are seeking to negotiate an end to the shutdown, which has severely impacted the economy and public welfare [4] - A bipartisan group of senators is reportedly working on a proposal that includes funding for certain agencies and a short-term bill to reopen the government [7] - There is a possibility of support from moderate Democratic senators, which could help surpass the required votes to end the deadlock [7] Economic Impact - The ongoing shutdown is causing substantial economic losses, estimated between $10 billion and $30 billion weekly, with a consensus around $15 billion [8] - Specific impacts include a freeze on approximately $24 billion in federal procurement spending, hindering contractors and suppliers [12] - Small business loans have been disrupted, affecting around 4,800 businesses with a total of $2.5 billion in loans blocked [12] - Food assistance programs, such as SNAP, are facing funding issues, potentially affecting 42 million people [12] - Early childhood education services have been interrupted, impacting over 8,000 children and families [12] Market Reactions - President Trump has acknowledged the negative effects of the shutdown on the stock market and other sectors, urging for a swift resolution [10] - Despite the challenges, he remains optimistic about the long-term performance of the stock market [10]

今日周二(11月4日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11242一线下方，今日开盘于11455元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11229元/千克，下跌1.40%，最高触及11504元/千克，最低下探11188元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 两党普通参议员团体一直在商讨如何将一项短期拨款方案打包通过，该方案将重启政府运作，同时推进 全年拨款法案的审议，并赋予民主党人对即将到期的《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票表决的权利。 另外美国参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩表示，由于两党基层谈判取得进展，他对本周能达成协议结束政 府停摆"持乐观态度"。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周一慢涨至11537附近，还是没有站稳11600压制点，现在还是震荡走势，等待多头趋势爆发出来。 沪银在上涨中低点越来越高，下方11000，11140都是阶段性低点，而高点一直维持在11600之下，所 以，现在是一个震荡三角上行的阶段，那么，本周也要在上涨趋势先的支撑点做多，再看11600破位后 的单边上涨。周内支撑在11200，可以在此点位做多看涨，上方先看11600，破位后再看120 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 656,170 kilograms, with a decrease of 9,440 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures opened at 11,230 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,320 yuan, a low of 11,103 yuan, and closed at 11,276 yuan, down 0.73% [1] - The total silver warehouse inventory in Shanghai is 548,391 kilograms, with a decrease of 10,994 kilograms from the previous day [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is sending notifications to federal employees indicating that only those who worked during the government shutdown will receive back pay [3] - The White House is willing to discuss back pay for federal employees with Democrats, using it as leverage to push for government reopening [3] - The government is complying with court orders to pay benefits for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), despite previous threats to halt these benefits [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate Republicans rejected President Trump's proposal to end the filibuster, which is a procedural rule requiring 60 votes to advance most legislation [1] - Trump emphasized the urgency of passing legislation to end the government shutdown, citing significant impacts on programs like SNAP and the aviation industry [1] - The temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown has failed to advance 14 times in the Senate due to the lack of 60 votes [2] Group 1 - Trump's call for the Senate to terminate the filibuster was met with immediate resistance from senior Republican leaders, including Mitch McConnell [1] - The current Senate composition is 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, but the Republicans do not have the necessary 60 votes to bypass the filibuster [2] - Republican Senator John Thune stated that the filibuster has historically protected the nation from extreme legislation [2] Group 2 - Several Republican senators warned that abolishing the filibuster could allow Democrats to push through more radical agendas in the future [2] - There are concerns among Republican lawmakers that eliminating the filibuster could backfire when political power shifts [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate Republicans rejected President Trump's request to end the filibuster, with senior Republican Senator McConnell stating that they will not terminate it [1] - Trump emphasized the urgency of passing legislation to end the government shutdown, which he claims is severely impacting programs like SNAP, the airline industry, and the stock market [1] - The current Senate rules require a supermajority of 60 votes to advance most legislation, and despite Republicans holding a majority, they have not reached this threshold, allowing Democrats to effectively block bills [1] Summary by Sections - **Filibuster and Legislative Process** - Trump called for the immediate termination of the filibuster to facilitate the passage of a temporary funding bill to end the government shutdown [1] - The filibuster requires at least 60 votes to advance legislation, which has led to 14 failed attempts to pass a funding bill to end the shutdown [1] - **Republican Opposition** - Senate Republican leaders, including John Thune, have expressed opposition to ending the filibuster, arguing it protects the nation from extreme legislation [2] - Several Republican senators warned that abolishing the filibuster could enable future Democratic majorities to push through more radical agendas [2]