· 2025 年 4 月 29 日 国都港股操作导航 星期二 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 40227.59 | 0.28 | | 标普 500 指数 | 5528.75 | 0.06 | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 17366.13 | -0.10 | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8417.34 | 0.02 | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 22271.67 | 0.13 | | 日经 225 指数 | 35839.99 | 0.38 | | 台湾加权指数 | 20034.41 | 0.81 | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3288.41 | -0.20 | | 深证成指 | 9855.2 | -0.62 | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 21971.96 | -0.04 | | 国企指数 | 8080.19 | 0 | | 红筹指数 | 3768.92 | 0.22 | | 恒生科技指数 | 4988.94 | 0.12 | | AH 股溢价指数 | 135.36 | -0.32 | | 恒生期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-04-29 关注特朗普执政百日演讲 市场分析 5月1日至5月5日将迎来国内的五一假期。假期期间共跨越3个交易日，假期前后重要的数据和事件主要有：中国4 月PMI，欧美一季度GDP初值，日本央行利率决议，美国4月非农，欧佩克+会议，美联储的利率决议等。复盘过去 11个五一假期样本：1、国内股指的假期季节性特征显著，整体国内股指在节后二十个工作日内（首月）呈现持续 走高态势，中小盘（中证500和中证1000）首日和首周样本录得上涨概率较高；2、商品分板块，重点关注假期期 间的出行消费对原油价格的影响；对于化工、煤焦钢矿等工业品关注国内稳增长和供给侧等变量，农副产品表现 偏弱，月度季节性有下行的压力。 4月政治局会议定调积极。4月25日，我国召开政治局会议，"今年经济呈现向好态势""外部冲击影响加大"定调当下 经济判断，对于宏观政策，会议表示"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，适时降准降息"，此外"提高中低收入群体收入"、"推进城市更新和城中村、危旧房改造"等措词也 值得关注。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，延续去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of measures to stabilize employment and the economy while promoting high-quality development, focusing on targeted and actionable policies to enhance the sense of gain for enterprises and the public [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Support - Measures include encouraging enterprises to stabilize employment, increasing vocational training, expanding support through labor substitution programs, and enhancing public employment services [2][6]. - A large-scale vocational skills training initiative will be launched, targeting sectors with high recruitment demand and focusing on key groups such as rural laborers and unemployed graduates [6]. Group 2: Foreign Trade Stability - The government plans to enhance support for foreign trade through tailored policies for individual industries and enterprises, helping exporters mitigate risks and encouraging foreign investment [2][3]. - Financial support will be increased, including government funding, credit support from financial institutions, and insurance for domestic trade [3]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Expansion - The potential for expanding domestic demand is significant, with an estimated annual investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for equipment upgrades as the country advances in high-quality development [4]. - A new childcare subsidy system and targeted measures for car purchase quotas in cities with restrictions will be implemented to boost consumption [4]. Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - The government aims to improve consumption infrastructure and stimulate private investment through new policy financial tools [2][4]. - An estimated 4 trillion yuan investment demand will arise from the need to update and renovate various pipelines over the next five years [4]. Group 5: Skill-Based Compensation - A skill-oriented salary distribution system will be established, guiding enterprises to consider skill levels in wage distribution, thereby incentivizing skilled labor [6]. - The government will implement differentiated subsidy support to better link training with employment and income growth [6].

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

Economic Growth and Employment - In the first quarter, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - The number of new urban jobs added in the first quarter was 3.08 million, an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous year, exceeding the expected pace [3] - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the first quarter, which is below the expected control target [3] Policy Measures for Economic Stability - The government plans to establish a childcare subsidy system and create special re-lending tools to support key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [1] - Specific measures to stabilize foreign trade include tailored support for export enterprises and encouraging foreign investment in China [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate around 7.3 [2] Consumer Services and Employment Trends - The Ministry of Commerce is set to introduce a series of policies to enhance service consumption, including a 2025 action plan for quality improvement and a special action plan for health consumption [2] - There is a notable increase in recruitment demand in sectors such as life services, transportation logistics, and resident services, with AI-related job demand growing over 30% year-on-year [3]

此外，还包括积极扩大有效投资以及营造稳定发展良好环境方面的相关举措。 4月28日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。国家 发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上表示，将落实党中央、国务院决策部署，出台稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展的若干举措。 赵辰昕介绍，相关政策将注重突出针对性和可操作性，注重增强企业和群众的获得感，成熟一项、出台 一项。 五方面举措稳就业稳经济 赵辰昕介绍，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 其中，在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支 持、加强就业公共服务等几项具体举措；在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括一业一策、一企一策加大支持 力度，帮助出口企业规避风险，扩大服务产品"出海"，鼓励外资企业境内再投资等几项具体举措；在促 进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务消费，强化失能老年人照护，推动汽车消费扩容，构建技能导向的薪酬 分配制度等几项具体举措。 "下一步，国家发展改革委将积极会同各有关方面抓好若干举措落实，同时还将按照党中央、国务院要 求，常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，根据形 ...

Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The government is implementing measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, focusing on encouraging enterprises to maintain employment and enhancing vocational training [1] - Specific initiatives include expanding support for export enterprises, encouraging foreign investment, and promoting service product exports [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Investment - The government aims to expand service consumption and strengthen care for disabled elderly individuals, as well as promote automotive consumption [1] - Efforts to boost effective investment include improving consumer infrastructure and increasing private investment enthusiasm [1] Group 3: Healthcare and Social Security - Ten provinces in China have implemented direct payment of maternity benefits to individuals, simplifying the process and reducing the time taken to receive benefits [2] - The maternity benefits, funded by the medical insurance fund, replace the salary of female employees during maternity leave [2][3] - The process for claiming maternity insurance has been streamlined, eliminating the need for additional documentation such as birth certificates and marriage certificates [3]

今日优选 外媒专访：特朗普认为没有任何红线会改变关税政策 美乌最快或于本周签署矿产协议 美财政部上调二季度举债规模预期 巴基斯坦防长：印度的军事进攻迫在眉睫 韩国预计在6月大选前不可能与美国达成贸易协议 一季度中国黄金消费量同比、黄金ETF持仓增长 玉渊谭天：一些增量政策将在6月底前推出 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 国际原油结束两日连涨，美盘跌幅扩大。WTI原油跌破62美元关口，最终收跌2.06%，报61.68美元/桶，创近两周新低；布伦特原油收跌1.97%，报64.61美 元/桶。 美股三大股指涨跌不一，道指收涨0.28%，标普500指数涨0.06%，纳指跌0.1%。特斯拉(TSLA.O)涨0.3%，苹果(AAPL.O)涨0.4%，英伟达(NVDA.O)跌2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.68%，阿里巴巴(BABA.N)跌1.6%，蔚来汽车(NIO.N)涨近7%。 欧股主要股指全线收涨，德国DAX30指数收涨0.13%；英国富时100指数涨0.02%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨0.32%。 港股收盘 ...

● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 彭扬 "以上政策都注重突出针对性和可操作性，注重增强企业和群众的获得感，将成熟一项出台一项。"赵辰 昕说，下一步，国家发展改革委将积极会同各有关方面抓好若干举措落实，同时将常态化、敞口式做好 政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，根据形势变化及时出台增量储备 政策。 赵辰昕表示，将加力推动既定政策落地见效，包括提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万亿元投资 资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等，这些政策大部分将在二季度落地，并不断强化政策取向一致 性。 "不管国际局势如何变化，我们将锚定发展目标，保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，我们对实现 今年经济社会发展目标任务充满信心。"他说。 更好发挥内需主动力作用 "面对当前复杂严峻的国际环境，大力提振消费，全方位扩大国内需求，具有特殊的重要意义。"商务部 副部长盛秋平表示，下一步，将坚定不移办好自己的事，围绕"两稳"政策措施，推出细化举措，进一步 增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用，以强大国内市场更好应对外部风险挑战。 国家发展改革委等四部门有关负责人4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，我国将出台实施稳就业稳经 济推动高 ...