本轮上涨行情伴随着期货市场的大规模平仓。据Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时内，加密货币衍生品市 场的平仓规模超6.88亿美元，其中空头头寸平仓金额约占6.03亿美元。 政治层面的紧张局势则进一步火上浇油。有报道称，美国司法部本周早些时候已向美联储送达大陪审团 传票，这一消息扰动了市场情绪并拖累美元走弱，进而提升了那些被认为可规避央行政策风险的资产的 吸引力。 目前比特币价格正逼近此前引发大规模抛售的水平，且衍生品数据显示市场杠杆正迅速重新累积，这意 味着后续市场波动率可能会有所上升。 空头头寸遭强制平仓 来源：环球市场播报 随着加密货币价格加速上行，近12.2万名交易员爆仓，其中币安平台上以太坊对泰达币（ETHUSDT） 的合约平仓金额达1290万美元，为此次平仓潮的主力。 周三加密货币市场大幅走高，美国通胀数据回落，加之围绕美联储的政治不确定性再度升温，重新点燃 了市场对稀缺性非主权资产的需求。 过去24小时内，比特币（BTC）涨幅超4%，一周以来首次突破95000美元关口，向1月区间的高点逼 近。以太坊表现更为强势，涨幅超7%，价格升至3330美元左右；而索拉纳（SOL）、卡尔达诺 （ADA）、瑞 ...

2026年1月14日，贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻，现货白银开盘强势拉升，首次站上90美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。截至发稿，现货白银报91.13美元/盎 司，日内涨幅达4.85%，2026年开年以来，白银现货、期货价格累计涨幅已达25%左右，涨势远超市场预期。 银价狂飙市值登顶，贵金属板块应声大涨 银价的持续走高推动白银资产市值大幅攀升，1月14日市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，白银总市值首次突破5万亿美元大关，达5.039万亿美 元，超越芯片巨头英伟达的4.523万亿美元，成为全球第二大资产，黄金则以32.162万亿美元市值稳居榜首。 资本市场对银价大涨迅速作出反应，1月14日上午收盘，A股贵金属板块集体走高，其中湖南白银领涨，涨幅达9.53%，山金国际、四川黄金、中金黄金 等标的纷纷跟涨，贵金属投资热情持续升温。 此次银价飙升背后有明确的基本面支撑，1月13日美国劳工部公布2025年12月通胀数据，CPI同比上涨2.7%、核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，数据公布后，市场 对美联储较早降息的预期升温，交易员押注美联储4月降息概率从38%升至42%，成为白银价格走高的直接推手。而这一轮涨势 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近期，白银价格上涨趋势仍在继续，伦敦现货白银更是一举升破90美元/盎司，刷新历史最高纪录。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间1月14日14：39，伦敦现货白银一度触及91.551美元/盎司，刷新历史新 高，2026年以来累计涨幅超25%。 国内方面，文华财经数据显示，截至1月14日14：39，沪银期货主力合约最高触及22995元/千克，刷新 该合约上市以来新高，最新涨幅超7%。 一德期货贵金属分析师张晨表示，2026年开年以来，白银价格总体延续震荡上行态势。即便在大宗商品 指数调仓抛压的背景下，银价依旧保持强势，核心原因在于宏观面变化主导市场走向。国际地缘局势紧 张推升黄金避险需求，而全球对关键矿产资源的争夺，也让白银直接受益。 张晨表示，微观层面的数据显示，受现货供应紧张影响，白银正在不同市场间转移调配。2026年伊始， COMEX白银期货交割量再度放量，库存持续下滑，注册仓单占总库存的比例也不断走低。尤其是注册 仓单持续向合格仓单转化的趋势仍在延续，这一现象进一步表明市场惜售情绪升温，为银价提供支撑。 国内市场方面，白银库存持续回落， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by U.S. inflation data and geopolitical uncertainties, while highlighting the role of the company in providing investment insights and strategies to capitalize on market movements [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 13, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,634 per ounce before retracting, with the final close at $4,585.95 per ounce, reflecting a 0.26% decline [2]. - Silver prices also saw significant movement, hitting a historical peak of $89.12 per ounce before closing at $86.91 per ounce, marking a 2.14% increase [2]. - The U.S. inflation report indicated a year-on-year CPI of 2.7% for December, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month, which was below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and U.S. relations, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - The potential for military action and new tariffs on countries trading with Iran has further escalated concerns, providing additional support for gold prices [5]. - The situation in Ukraine and other geopolitical events have also contributed to a strong demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [6]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes that despite short-term volatility, the bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [8]. - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming U.S. retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which are critical indicators of economic resilience and inflation trends [8]. - The company offers real-time communication with analysts to help investors navigate market conditions and optimize their investment strategies [1][2].

文 | 史玥明 来源 | 光大期货微资讯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 共性驱动：三大核心因素撑起贵金属牛市根基 01 2026年开年的贵金属市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过。1月14日，现货白银首次突破90美元，再创历史新高，新年首月累计涨幅 已远超市场预期。一边是投资者涌入贵金属ETF、相关LOF基金份额屡创新高的狂热，一边是芝商所一个月内三次上调保证金、彭博 指数调整引发被动减仓的降温信号。 图源：wind 无论是黄金的稳步攀升，还是白银的暴力突破，本质上都是多重宏观变量共振的结果。梳理当前市场环境，地缘政治风险升温、美联储 降息预期强化、全球战略储备需求激增，这三大共性因素构成了贵金属上涨的核心支撑，且每一个因素都有明确的数据与事件佐证。 1. 地缘政治"风暴眼"持续扩容，避险需求空前高涨 贵金属的避险属性，在全球地缘冲突加剧的背景下被无限放大。进入2026年，全球地缘政治的"火药味"明显变浓，从美洲到中东再到北 极，多重冲突点叠加，直接推升了市场对贵金属的配置需求。 最受关注的莫过于特朗普政府的对外政策动向。据央视新闻报道，美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案，包括向中东派 遣航 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260114 扰动结束后，美国 Q1 通胀料将反弹——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 ◼ 展望与策略启示：关注一季度增长与通胀超预期偏强的风险。向前看， 我们认为 26Q1 美国的非农与通胀数据需要更多关注上行风险，这一上 行风险来自宽财政、宽货币的脉冲落地，和一季度常见的偏强季节性。 具体来看，①宽财政：Hutchines Center 测算 26Q1 财政给美国 GDP 的 拉动（财政脉冲）为 2.79%，主要来自政府停摆结束的被动财政扩张的 贡献；②宽货币：参考 2024 年 9-12 月累计 100bps 的连续降息让 25Q1 美国经济意外指数超预期，我们预计 2025 年 9 月以来累计 75bps 的连 续降息也将让 26Q1 美国经济受到宽货币的脉冲刺激；③季节性：2023 年以来，因疫情对相关数据季调模型的"污染"，美国非农就业初值与 2026 年 01 月 14 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhang ...

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.1% in October and November[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching the prior year's growth[4] Price Components - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 4.2%[7] - Food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a prior increase of 2.6%[7] - Core goods prices remained flat, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating weak durable goods demand[8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, with FedWatch indicating an average of 2.2 cuts (56.2 basis points) compared to 2.1 cuts (51.6 basis points) prior to the data release[8] - The overall CPI and core inflation performance aligned with market expectations, indicating a moderate inflation environment[8] Future Outlook - Confirmation of the inflation path requires one to two "cleaner" data windows, with potential upward pressures from delayed economic activity due to government shutdowns and tariff pass-through effects starting in early 2026[9] - Downward pressures include falling crude oil prices and declining food commodity indices, alongside indicators suggesting a downward trend in housing rent CPI growth[9]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surpassed $90 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by various market factors including inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. Price Movements - On January 14, spot silver prices rose to $90.004 per ounce, marking a 3.41% increase from the previous close of $86.919 [3]. - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with an intraday increase exceeding 4%, closing at $89.900, up 3.88% from the previous close of $86.338 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [4]. Market Capitalization - The market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, exceeding the market cap of NVIDIA, which stands at $4.52 trillion [5]. Global Market Context - The current price of silver is $89.82, reflecting a 4.03% increase, while gold is priced at $4,630, up 0.68% [6]. - Other precious metals such as platinum and palladium have also shown notable price increases [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data has reinforced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to rising demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [7]. - The core consumer price index in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below market expectations, which has influenced investor sentiment regarding monetary policy [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver over the next three months to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively [8]. - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in silver pricing dynamics since 2022, with a notable short-term supply shortage emerging due to various factors, including U.S. trade policies and increased industrial demand [8].

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月14日｜亚洲早盘时段，现货白银突破90美元/盎司的关键价位，为历史上首次。这一涨势得益 于昨日美国公布的通胀数据表现疲软，市场加大了对美联储降息的预期。与此同时，地缘政治紧张局势 加剧、强劲的工业和投资需求以及库存收紧等因素，一同助力了白银本轮的强劲涨势。 ...

【导读】现货白银突破90美元/盎司，续创历史新高 白银，又爆了！ 1月14日，现货白银价格继续攀升，盘中站上90美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 | く さ | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 89.883 | | 昨结 | 86.919 | | 开盘 | | 86.951 | | +2.964 | +3.41% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 90.004 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 2 | 물 | 0 | | 最低价 | 86.867 | 增 仓 | | 0 | 内 | 물 | 0 | | સ્ત્ર B4 | 五日 | 日K | 闇K | 月K | | 重多 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价: -- | | 盘口 | | | 90.004 | | | | 3.55% | 卖1 | 89.913 | 0 | | | | | | | 际 | 89.880 | 0 | | | | | | | ...