Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall commodity market is affected by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, policy expectations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends such as being strong, weak, or in a range - bound state [4][14]. - Geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine have increased concerns about energy supply disruptions, which has an impact on the prices of commodities such as PX and crude oil [8]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations drive the overall strength of commodities, but external risks such as the potential intensification of the trade war in August also need attention [38][46]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight, with a recommendation of rolling long on spreads. The start - up rate of domestic plants has decreased, and the upcoming production of new PTA plants will increase demand [14]. - **PTA**: The raw material trend is strong as polyester inventory decreases, and there is a suggestion to focus on the spread of long PTA and short PF [4][14]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, driven by the continuous rise in coal prices [4][14]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Although there are some changes in futures prices and trading volume, the overall market lacks a clear trend [15][16]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. Short - term factors such as policy expectations, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals support the price increase, but medium - term supply pressure may limit the upside [20][22]. Asphalt - Asphalt will fluctuate repeatedly. The production and inventory of asphalt have decreased, and the market is affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [23][24][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE will move in a range. The supply pressure is increasing, while the demand support is weak, and the market is also affected by macro - factors [37][38]. PP - PP's spot price will oscillate with light trading. The futures market has limited impact on the spot, and downstream demand is insufficient [41][42]. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term positive sentiment, the supply pressure will increase, and it is currently in the off - season of demand [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp will oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals are in a stalemate, with high inventory on the supply side and weak demand on the downstream side [49][51][53]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market is relatively active due to the influence of the futures and price increase notices [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to run strongly. The spot price is rising, and short - term fundamentals are neutral, with support from rigid demand and supply contraction [58][61]. Urea - Urea will move in a range. The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the demand is weak, and it is also affected by policy expectations [63][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is recommended as a short - position allocation. It is in a situation of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and the port inventory is accelerating the accumulation [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable, with the market expected to be stable and oscillating [69][71]. LPG - The external support for LPG is strengthening, and there is still room for the domestic market to recover. The prices of futures contracts are rising, and the operating rates of related industries are increasing [73]. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. Although there is short - term market strength, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the fundamentals are weak [83][84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline of fuel oil has slowed down, and it rebounded slightly at night. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02. The futures prices of relevant contracts are changing, and different shipping price indices show different trends [90].

Group 1 - The core strategy of the tariff policy is not merely to increase tax rates but to impose differentiated tariffs on global trade partners, aiming to reshape the global trade landscape [3][5] - The basic tariff rate will cover over 90% of trade categories, establishing a foundation for subsequent differentiated tariffs [3] - Specific countries face varying additional punitive tariffs, with China at 34%, the EU at 20%, Vietnam at 46%, Japan at 24%, Thailand at 36%, and Indonesia at 19% [3] Group 2 - The automotive industry is significantly impacted, with General Motors reporting a 35% drop in net profit for Q2, warning that tariffs will severely affect future business [8] - The steel and aluminum sectors benefit from a 50% import tariff in the short term, but historical evidence suggests this protection is not sustainable [10] - Semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries face tariffs of 25% and up to 200% respectively, which could disrupt global supply chains and lead to price increases [10] Group 3 - North American container shipping rates have surged by 31%, with average annual household expenses in the U.S. expected to rise by $2,940, potentially pushing core PCE inflation beyond warning levels [10] - Multinational companies are accelerating the relocation of production capacities to Mexico and Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs, indicating a significant shift in the global trade system [12] - The OECD predicts that U.S. GDP growth may fall below 1% by 2025, highlighting the risk of stagflation with high inflation and low growth [12] Group 4 - China has implemented counter-tariffs on key U.S. products, with semiconductor equipment tariffs reaching 125%, affecting U.S. military production [12] - The EU plans to impose 25% tariffs on U.S. whiskey and automobiles, although its response is limited by energy dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas [12] - A global backlash is prompting countries to accelerate multilateral trade cooperation and develop alternative settlement mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [12]

特朗普关税重创亚洲车企盈利，全球汽车市场竞争格局生变。 亚洲主要汽车制造商周四发布的业绩报告显示，特朗普政府对汽车进口征收的高额关税正在对行业造成 严重冲击，利润大幅下滑并引发全球汽车市场竞争格局重新洗牌。日本三菱汽车和韩国现代汽车集团成 为这轮贸易政策调整的直接受害者。 三菱汽车二季度净利润几乎被完全抹去，并警告称，由于美国对汽车进口征收重税以及竞争对手将出口 转向其他市场以弥补在美销量下滑，公司正面临"前所未有的挑战性环境"。 日韩贸易谈判分化明显 据央视新闻，美日就关税问题达成一致，日本成功把汽车关税从此前威胁的27.5%谈到15%，为其汽车 出口商提供重大缓解。分析师认为马自达、斯巴鲁和三菱是受关税影响最大的日本车企。 三菱表示，较低的关税税率是"潜在利好"，但维持全年预测不变。该公司上月已将美国车辆价格上调 2.1%。 相比之下，韩国面临的压力更大，韩国汽车出口仍面临特朗普4月份征收的25%关税，韩国政府正寻求 与日本同等的关税减免待遇。 据环球网，韩国政府正在考虑在对美关税谈判中就部分农产品进口限制作出"战略性让步"。另据媒体报 道，原定本周五在华盛顿举行的韩美"2+2"会谈已被推迟，因美国财政部 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2244.900 1583.9 | | 32.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | +57.00↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 661.00 -41.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 465.00 | | | | -72.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | 155.60 | | -5.20↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 9684 | -1355↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,301.81 | | | | 35.2 ...

专家认为，日本所获得的协议条款将成为欧盟在后续谈判中设定的"最低基准"。 继美日就15%关税达成贸易协定后，欧盟与美国正就建立类似的关税框架进行最后磋商。 当地时间7月23日，德国总理默茨在柏林与法国总统马克龙举行会晤时透露，欧盟正与美国进行高级别 磋商，"我们现在听到的消息是，关于贸易的决定可能即将作出"。 据报道，美日达成的贸易协议促使欧盟方面不得不接受更高的互惠关税率，以避免可能引发破坏性后果 的贸易战。7月23日早些时候，欧盟委员会称，当前首要任务仍是通过谈判达成协议，以缓解30%关税 的威胁。 全球经济咨询公司BCA研究地缘政治首席策略师格特钦（Matt Gertken）在7月23日的研讨会上表示，当 日本达成贸易协议后，欧盟可能无法坚持对抗足够长时间从而迫使特朗普降低关税，只能接受能争取到 的条件。 洛桑国际管理发展学院（IMD）商学院地缘政治与战略学教授埃文尼特（Simon Evenett）认为，日本所 获得的协议条款将成为欧盟在后续谈判中设定的"最低基准"。 值得关注的是，美日协议中将汽车关税设定为15%，这一数字显著低于美国现行的27.5%汽车关税水 平。欧盟官员表示，华盛顿在汽车关税议题上 ...

7月24日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价出现下跌，跌幅不大，价格对比之前还是高了很多。其 中，周生生黄金跌的最多，下跌14元/克，报价1015元/克，比最高价金店低了1元/克。上海中国黄金不 涨不跌，报价981元/克，还是最低价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差缩小至35元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 今日金价 单位 变动幅度 涨跌 老庙黄金价格 1012 元/克 11 1016 元/克 7 跌 周大福黄金价格 跌 六福黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 周六福黄金价格 996 元/克 7 跌 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月24日） 金店报价 金至尊黄金价格 1016 元/克 7 跌 老凤祥黄金价格 1014 元/克 10 跌 潮宏基黄金价格 1015 元/克 1016 元/克 7 跌 周生生黄金价格 14 跌 菜百黄金价格 992 元/克 0 平 上海中国黄金价格 981 元/克 0 平 今日金店金价转跌，铂金价格继续下跌。还是周生生黄金，今日铂金饰品价格下跌11元/克，报价572 元/克。如果还想了解其他品牌铂金报价？欢迎留言告诉我们！我们将及时汇总更新，帮您掌握最新行 情。 今日黄金 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the US are tense due to the impending 30% tariff threat set for August 1, prompting the EU to seek an agreement before the deadline [3][4] - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan targeting $109 billion worth of US goods, which will be submitted for review by EU member states on July 24 [3] - The proposed tariffs will cover multiple sectors, including agriculture and industrial products, indicating a strong stance from the EU in the trade conflict [3][4] Group 2 - If the 30% tariffs are implemented, EU governments have agreed to initiate a series of "counter-coercion" measures that may extend beyond goods to include services and other sectors like finance and technology [4] - The EU's strategy is bolstered by the unity of its 27 member states and their significant reliance on the US market [4] Group 3 - In the silver market, paper silver is currently trading above 8.966, with a recent opening at 9.023 and a current price of 8.975, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [1] - The highest price reached today was 9.041, while the lowest was 8.911, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in paper silver [1][5] - Key resistance levels for paper silver are noted at the 9.025-9.041 range, while support levels are identified at 8.977-8.911 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nokia's second-quarter performance was negatively impacted by tariffs and a weakening dollar, leading to a revenue increase of only 2% to €4.55 billion, which fell short of market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted operating profit for the second quarter was €301 million (approximately $354 million), a 29% decline from €423 million in the same period last year, significantly below the Bloomberg analyst average expectation of €399 million [1] - Nokia has lowered its full-year operating profit guidance to between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from a previous high of €2.4 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration has disrupted global supply chains, adversely affecting various industries, including Nokia [1] - Operators are hesitant to invest in expensive network upgrades, which has intensified competition between Nokia and its rival Ericsson [1][2] Group 3: Management Response - CEO Pekka Lundmark emphasized the need for continuous improvement in operations to enhance speed, efficiency, and focus on core business value creation [2] - The company is working on integrating corporate functions, streamlining workflows, and fostering a more cohesive corporate culture to leverage operational efficiencies [2] Group 4: Stock Performance - Following the downgrade of its earnings guidance, Nokia's stock experienced a significant drop in the Helsinki stock market, with a year-to-date decline of 12% [3]

风暴眼：华尔街在政治与市场的撕裂中颤抖 当夜幕降临，纽约联邦储备银行深处的地下会议室灯火通明，一场关于未来利率走向的激烈辩论正在进行。经济学家们神情严肃，围坐在长桌旁，仔细研读 着六月会议纪要——这份文件如同一面棱镜，将美联储内部的深刻分歧暴露无遗。透过窗户，特朗普大厦闪烁的霓虹灯光刺破夜空，映衬着美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔凝重的侧脸。他的手指悬停在加密手机上方，一条来自理事克里斯托弗·沃勒三小时前的短信静静地躺在那里："数据显示关税冲击可控。"鲍威尔 斟酌着回复，一句"等月底详谈"在发送框里闪烁，但最终未能发出。 就在这寂静的夜晚，四股强大的力量如同飓风般碰撞，将全球市场卷入一场没有硝烟的战争。 这场战争的源头之一，是来自政治层面的直接施压。凌晨1点27分，在佛罗里达州的海湖庄园，键盘的敲击声划破了宁静。前总统唐纳德·特朗普在他的"真 实社交"平台上发出一声咆哮："通货膨胀率极低，美联储应该立即降息300个基点！"他精明地计算着政治得失：利率每提高一个百分点，美国每年就要多支 付3600亿美元的利息，降息三个百分点就相当于节省了上万亿美元。这条凌晨发布的"降息令"如同一场野火，迅速蔓延，占据了全球财经媒体的 ...