然而，部分官员则倾向于加息。他们认为，通胀压力持续存在，加息有助于遏制通胀的进一步上升。此 外，加息也能表明央行对经济的信心，并引导市场预期。他们认为，过早降息可能导致市场过度宽松， 滋生不必要的风险。 美联储会议纪要显露分歧：降息与加息的不同声音 近日，美联储的会议纪要引发了市场的广泛关注。会议纪要显示，美联储内部在货币政策上存在分歧， 部分官员支持降息，而部分则倾向于加息。这一分歧引发了市场对美联储未来政策走向的猜测与担忧。 在当前的全球经济环境下，美联储的决策对全球经济具有重大影响。面对通胀压力、经济复苏状况以及 金融市场波动等多重因素，美联储内部对货币政策产生了不同看法。 部分官员支持降息的观点认为，降息有助于刺激经济增长，降低企业和个人的借贷成本，从而提振投资 与消费。在经济增长放缓或面临下行风险的情境下，降息能够提供更多经济支持，维护金融市场的稳 定。 面对这种分歧，美联储未来的政策走向充满不确定性。市场普遍关注美联储如何平衡经济增长、通胀、 就业以及金融市场稳定等多重目标。美联储的决策将受到全球经济状况、地缘政治风险以及商品价格等 多重因素的影响。 总的来说，美联储会议纪要的分歧反映了当前经济环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector will continue into 2026, driven by inflation, resource scarcity, and expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Inflation and Resource Demand - The article highlights that inflation has surged due to unprecedented monetary expansion by central banks, leading to a significant increase in the prices of commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals like copper and silver [2][3]. - The demand for industrial metals is expected to remain robust due to the growth in AI infrastructure and renewable energy investments, with companies like Google and Amazon planning to invest heavily in AI-related capital expenditures [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The article discusses the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market expectations suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points in 2026, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost commodity prices [4][5]. - The dynamics between former President Trump and Fed Chair Powell are noted, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy that could favor lower interest rates [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The article suggests that while the copper market may experience short-term fluctuations due to increased inventory levels, the long-term demand remains strong, and investors should look for entry points during price corrections [6][8]. - The small metals market, particularly tungsten and antimony, is highlighted as having significant growth potential due to supply constraints and strategic importance, with prices already showing substantial increases [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Approaches - The article recommends using ETFs as a way to mitigate risks associated with individual stock selection in the non-ferrous metals sector, allowing investors to benefit from overall market trends without the need for extensive research [9][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment strategy, focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term market fluctuations [11][12].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices rose across the board, with the Dow Jones increasing by 230.81 points (0.47%) to close at 49,625.97, the Nasdaq up by 203.34 points (0.90%) to 22,886.07, and the S&P 500 gaining 47.62 points (0.69%) to finish at 6,909.51 [2] - The rise in stock prices was influenced by the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of President Trump's global tariffs, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures on businesses and reduce concerns about persistent inflation in the U.S. economy [2][5] - Major technology stocks saw positive performance, with Alphabet rising by 4.01%, Netflix by 2.17%, and Amazon increasing by 2.56% following the Supreme Court ruling [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was reported at an annualized rate of 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, primarily due to a government shutdown that impacted economic growth by approximately 1 percentage point [6][7] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a preferred inflation measure by the Federal Reserve, remained stable at 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [7] - Retail stocks responded positively to the Supreme Court's decision, with Home Depot rising by 0.97% and Five Below increasing by 1.91%, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards consumer goods companies [5][6]

钛媒体App 2月21日消息，美联储博斯蒂克表示，中性利率可能比目前的政策利率低0.25到0.5个百分 点，如果通胀走势"走错方向"并开始上升，美联储将不得不把加息选项摆到台面上。预计美国2026年 GDP增长2.4%，2027年增长2.1%，并在2028年恢复至趋势水平。大量财政刺激即将到来，将对经济产 生扩张效应，但会给通胀带来压力。（广角观察） ...

Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, with a 0.4% increase in December, marking the largest rise in nearly a year [1][9] - Year-over-year core PCE rose to 3% in December, up from 2.8% at the beginning of 2025 [1][12] Inflation Data - December PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-over-year, compared to a previous value of 2.8% [10] - The month-over-month PCE price index rose by 0.4%, matching expectations and the previous month's figure [11] - Core PCE price index increased by 3% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 2.9% [12] - Month-over-month core PCE price index also rose by 0.4%, in line with expectations [13] Economic Indicators - The SuperCore PCE, which excludes certain volatile items, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3][16] - Service prices continue to drive inflation, with notable increases in legal service prices observed in January [3][16] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.4% month-over-month in December, consistent with expectations [20] - Actual personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.3% previously [20] - Personal income rose by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.4% [20] Market Reaction - Following the release of PCE data, U.S. stock futures declined, with the Nasdaq futures down by 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.24%, and Dow futures down by 0.18% [22] - Market participants continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before June [22]

International News - The U.S. Supreme Court rejected President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling it lacks clear legal authorization, which may lead to the U.S. needing to refund up to $170 billion in tariff revenues [1] - In response, Trump plans to sign an order imposing a 10% global baseline tariff on all countries, expected to take effect in three days, and threatens additional tariffs of 15% to 30% on automobiles [2][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariff revenues are expected to be around $130 billion, falling short of the $175 billion target, while the Illinois governor has submitted a request for an $8.6 billion tariff refund for approximately 5.1 million households [6][7] - Geopolitical tensions with Iran are escalating, with Trump demanding an agreement within 10-15 days, and reports suggest a potential limited military strike by the U.S. [8] - The U.S. military has deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Mediterranean, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, along with 17 ships and dozens of aircraft to the Middle East [9][10][11][12] Market Overview - Safe-haven sentiment has driven significant increases in precious metal prices, with spot gold rising 2.15% to $5,104.90 per ounce, and New York futures surpassing $5,130 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.65% [13][14][15][16][17] - Silver prices also surged, with spot silver breaking $84 per ounce and New York futures exceeding $85 per ounce, showing daily increases of 7.21% and 8.67% respectively [13][14][15][16][17] - Palladium futures surpassed $1,800 per ounce, with a daily increase of 4.54% [13][14][15][16][17] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that bearish sentiment towards the dollar has reached its highest level since 2021 [18] - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the Dow up 0.48%, Nasdaq up 0.90%, and S&P up 0.71%, while major European indices also rose, including Germany's DAX30 up 0.92% and France's CAC40 up 1.39% [19][20] Corporate Developments - OpenAI plans to invest approximately $600 billion in computing power by 2030 [21] - Google is exploring the expansion of its AI chip market to compete with Nvidia [22] - Amazon reported that hackers used AI tools to breach over 600 firewalls across 55 countries in five weeks, aiming to deploy ransomware [23] Economic Data - The Federal Reserve's Musalem noted ongoing corporate cost pressures and public inflation concerns, while Bostic indicated that interest rate hikes may be considered if inflation rises [24][25][26][27] - U.S. inflation expectations for February showed a one-year rate of 3.4% and a five-to-ten-year rate of 3.3%, both slightly below expectations [28] Domestic News - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.05%, with significant declines in stocks such as Tims China down 5.61% and Huya down 5.71% [30][31]

在美联储即将迎来新一轮人事调整之际，美国货币政策前景再添不确定性。被总统特朗普提名、拟接掌 美联储主席之位的凯文·沃什，不仅将继承当前的经济形势，也将直面一场尖锐的政策分歧，白宫希望 尽快降息，而他即将领导的政策制定机构却明显转向更为谨慎、偏紧的立场。 美联储1月会议纪要显示，在去年三次降息后，多数官员认为有必要在3.50%-3.75%的联邦基金利率区间 维持一段时间。部分与会者甚至指出，若通胀持续高于目标水平，应保留"必要时加息"的政策表述。官 员们普遍判断，就业下行风险已有所缓和，但通胀顽固性仍构成主要威胁。 智通财经APP获悉，EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示，这一背景令沃什的处境颇为微 妙。"外界可能认为沃什带着偏鸽的立场上任，但他首先需要证明自己的判断立足于经济基本面，而非 政治因素；随后，还要说服一个愈发偏鹰、且对政策利率接近中性水平感到安心的委员会。" 最新经济数据并未迫使政策立场迅速转向。1月美国非农就业新增约13万人，失业率小幅降至4.3%；招 聘节奏虽不均衡，但裁员水平仍然较低，初请失业金人数也未释放衰退信号。通胀方面，美联储偏好的 通胀指标仍徘徊在约3%附 ...

来源：经济观察网 经济观察网 美国美盛（MOS.N）股价在2026年2月20日下跌2.42%，收盘报29.43美元。当日美股市场整 体承压，主要受以下宏观因素影响： 地缘政治紧张局势：据中国基金报报道，美东时间2月19日市场担忧美国可能对伊朗实施"有限规模"军 事打击，中东局势升级推高原油价格（WTI原油突破66美元/桶），加剧通胀忧虑。 货币政策预期收紧：美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰同日表态下调2026年降息幅度预期，因就业数据强劲且商 品通胀顽固，强化了利率维持高位的预期。 资金动向 板块资金流动：能源股因油价上涨逆势走高，而部分资金从非能源板块流出。美国美盛所属的农业用品 板块当日微涨0.20%，但个股受大盘情绪拖累。 公司状况 公司层面未在2月20日披露特定利空事件，股价波动主要与市场整体风险偏好下降相关。 行业政策与环境 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

美国财长贝森特：通胀仍然过高，但正朝着美联储目标靠拢。 ...

北京时间2月21日凌晨，美股周五尾盘走高。美国第四季度GDP仅增长1.4%，远远低于市场预期，12月 通胀远高于美联储2%的目标。美国最高法院驳回特朗普的全球关税政策后，特朗普称将根据不同法律 授权继续征收全球关税。 道指涨124.19点，涨幅为0.25%，报49519.35点；纳指涨170.66点，涨幅为0.75%，报22853.39点；标普 500指数涨37.57点，涨幅为0.55%，报6899.46点。 美国官方周五公布的数据显示，2025年接近年底时，美国经济增长放缓，而通胀依然坚挺，这可能会使 美联储的利率路径复杂化。 根据美国商务部经季节性和通胀因素调整后的数据，国内生产总值年化增长率仅为1.4%。接受道琼斯 调查的经济学家此前预计增长率为2.5%。而第三季度4.4%的增幅则远超预期。 这份数据令交易员们对美国经济增长持悲观看法。 剔除食品和能源价格的核心PCE指数12月份上涨了3%。这一数据与市场普遍预期相符，但使这一关键 通胀指标仍远高于美联储2%的目标。 美联储政策制定者内部存在分歧，一派忧心忡忡的官员们支持劳动力市场，另一派则更关注通胀。 美国物价上涨速度总体呈下降趋势，但通胀率仍高于央行 ...