Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials express a relaxed attitude towards price pressures in the Eurozone, indicating a low willingness for further interest rate actions [1][2]. Group 1: ECB Officials' Perspectives - Madis Müller, a member of the ECB Governing Council, suggests that inflation rates are likely to remain close to 2% in the foreseeable future, aligning current monetary policy with the economic cycle and inflation outlook [1]. - Müller acknowledges the need for vigilance due to past economic shocks that have disrupted macroeconomic forecasts, including the impacts of the pandemic and war on prices [1]. - Austrian Central Bank Governor Martin Koch supports a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of being alert to structural changes in the labor market and energy transition that could affect inflation and deflation [2][3]. Group 2: Current Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB has reduced interest rates by 200 basis points to 2% during the current easing cycle but has maintained rates steady in the last three policy meetings [1]. - Koch states that the current monetary policy position appears satisfactory, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [3].

Group 1: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Negotiations - Russian President Putin has received the U.S. proposed "28-point plan" for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is open to negotiations [2] - The U.S. plan has not been publicly discussed yet, and Russia has shown flexibility regarding the solution during the Anchorage talks [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has discussed the U.S. peace plan with NATO Secretary General and expressed readiness for constructive cooperation [4] Group 2: U.S. Position and Statements - U.S. President Trump stated that Zelensky must agree to the U.S.-supported peace plan, or the conflict will continue, emphasizing the urgency of the situation [6] - Trump recalled previous conversations with Zelensky, indicating that the latter should have reached an agreement earlier [6] - The U.S. government is engaged in discussions with both Russia and Ukraine to finalize a peace plan that could be acceptable to both parties [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones up 1.08%, S&P 500 up 0.98%, and Nasdaq up 0.88% [9] - The market sentiment was positively influenced by dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, suggesting potential interest rate cuts [9] Group 4: Copper Inventory - Copper inventories in the U.S. have surged over 330% this year, reaching a record high of 402,876 short tons [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has canceled its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, stating that it can obtain most of the non-survey data for the month and will release the October figures in the November report if possible [1] - The November report will not include the month-over-month percentage changes for those items missing October data, which may impact the interpretation of economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting results will be announced on the 11th of that month, but the November non-farm payroll report has been rescheduled for December 16, meaning Fed officials will lack key data before the meeting [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about making monetary policy decisions in a "data fog," with Chairman Powell suggesting a more cautious approach may be warranted [2] - New comments from New York Fed President John Williams indicate that monetary policy is currently moderately tight, suggesting there is room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range to bring policy closer to neutral [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.08%, although this was not enough to offset the significant declines earlier in the week, where the Nasdaq fell by 2.74%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.95%, and the Dow decreased by 1.91% [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated that monetary policy remains slightly tight, suggesting there is room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate to align closer to neutral [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled an increased probability of a rate cut in December, with traders raising expectations to over 50% [4] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that the current AI-related stock surge is unlikely to mirror the late 1990s internet bubble collapse due to the maturity and profitability of AI companies [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Employment - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected strength in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000 [5] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since October 2021 [5] - Revisions to previous months' employment data showed a downward adjustment, with July's non-farm payrolls revised down by 7,000 to 72,000 and August's figures adjusted from 22,000 to -4,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 33,000 for July and August combined [5]

Group 1: Russia-Ukraine Conflict - Russian President Putin has received the US-proposed "28-point plan" for resolving the Ukraine conflict and is open to negotiations [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed the US peace plan with NATO Secretary General and expressed readiness for constructive cooperation [3] - US President Trump stated that Zelensky must agree to the US-supported peace plan, or the conflict will continue, emphasizing the urgency of the situation [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - US stock markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones up 1.08%, S&P 500 up 0.98%, and Nasdaq up 0.88%, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [6] - Following comments from New York Fed President Williams, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to over 70% [7] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - US copper inventories reached a record high of 402,876 short tons, increasing over 330% this year [8] - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract LC2601 down 9% to 91,020 yuan/ton, reflecting cooling bullish sentiment [9][10] - Analysts noted a slowdown in lithium inventory depletion, with a weekly inventory of 118,000 tons, indicating cautious market sentiment [11] - The anticipated resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL has raised market expectations, but analysts warn against overreacting to single news events [12][13]

白宫内对此意见也不统一。 商务部长卢特尼克就"更倾向于解雇鲍威尔"，而财长贝森特则竭力劝阻。 这种内部分歧让局面更加复杂。 特朗普曾希望贝森特本人接任美联储主席，但贝森特因偏好现有职位而拒绝了。 这一切都围绕着同一个核心：特朗普试图通过政治力量影响货币政策，这 严重挑战了美联储的独立性传统。 央行独立性被认为是维持货币政策稳定和市场信心的基石。 更让美联储头疼的是经济数据"打架"。 刚公布的9月非农新增就业11.9万人，比市场预期的5万人高出一大截，看起来挺火热的。 同时失业率却从4.3%升到 了4.4%。 而且7月和8月的前值还被大幅下修了3.3万人。 这就像一个人一边说"我吃得特别多"，一边体重却在往下掉，让人搞不清真实状况。 雪上加霜的是数据"断粮"了。 因为之前的政府停摆，原本该公布的10月份非农数据，被推迟到12月美联储议息会议之后才能出来。 这意味着美联储下次开 会决定利率时，关键参考数据是缺失的，几乎等于"盲猜"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克就直言，担心降息会偏离控制通胀的目标。 而美联储理事沃勒则持不 同看法，他更担忧就业市场持续放缓的风险，因此主张12月应继续降息。 这么一来，市场也懵了。 芝商 ...

威廉姆斯表示，关税对整体通胀贡献约为0.5至0.75个百分点，但尚未看到其引发二轮通胀效应。他预计 通胀要到2027年才能重新回到2%的目标水平，并认为财政政策将在明年为经济增长带来一定支撑，但 移民与关税政策可能带来相反的压力。 与柯林斯持相似谨慎态度的还有达拉斯联储主席洛根。她在瑞士苏黎世的一场活动中表示，如果没有明 确证据显示通胀将比预期更快下行，或劳动力市场降温更迅速，那么她"将很难支持"在12月再次降息。 洛根认为，在不确定性升高的环境下，贸然继续降息可能导致未来不得不重新加息，从而引发金融和经 济波动，因此暂停降息更能让决策者观察当前政策的实际限制效果。她还指出，金融市场的资产价格上 涨及信用利差收窄表明金融环境依然宽松，因此政策利率需要抵消这类来自金融条件的顺风。 洛根也谈到未来资产负债表操作，表示美联储可能在不久后恢复资产购买，以确保资金市场运作顺畅。 她强调，这类操作属于技术性举措，不会代表货币政策方向发生改变。 相比之下，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯则释放出更鸽派的信号。他在智利发表讲话时表 示，随着劳动力市场出现更多下行风险、通胀上行压力减弱，他认为近期还有进一步降息的"空间" ...

Labor Market Insights - The recent labor market indicators suggest a dovish stance, with an increase in the unemployment rate and permanent layoffs, indicating the impact of restrictive Federal Reserve policies [1][2] - The unemployment rate is projected to potentially rise to 4.5% by December 16, which may influence the Fed's decision-making [11] Inflation Perspectives - Current inflation is reported to be around 3%, but much of this is viewed as a statistical artifact rather than a true reflection of supply-demand imbalances [2][6] - Market rents have been stable at about 1% for a couple of years, suggesting no significant supply-demand issues in the housing market [3][5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed's monetary policy should be forward-looking, focusing on forecasts for the economy 12 to 18 months ahead rather than past data [8][10] - There is a call for a 25 basis point cut in interest rates to prevent economic harm, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy [15][16] Economic Growth Factors - Factors that may support GDP growth in the coming year include regulatory relaxations, which could enhance supply without creating demand excess [19][20] - The timing of regulatory changes and their impact on the economy is acknowledged as a critical consideration, with a distinction made between immediate fiscal measures and longer-term supply-side improvements [21][22] Financial Market Dynamics - The relationship between financial markets and monetary policy is complex, with a caution against conflating stock market performance with the need for job losses [30][34] - Housing remains a key area where financial conditions are still tight, indicating that the current economic environment is not excessively easy [32][33] Inequality and Employment - The Fed's mandate focuses on stabilizing employment and prices, rather than addressing broader social issues like inequality [36] - An increase in unemployment due to restrictive policies could disproportionately affect lower-income individuals, which is a concern for policymakers [37]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" while assessing the current level of monetary policy tightening [1] Group 1 - Logan reiterated that a rate cut in October is not reasonable given the persistently high inflation and a generally balanced labor market [1] - She stated that maintaining interest rates steady for a period will allow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to better evaluate the constraints of current policy [1] - There is a call for clear evidence to support any further easing of the policy before making adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlight a significant clash over monetary policy, with Trump's desire to dismiss Powell reflecting deeper issues regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political pressures influencing economic decisions [2][3][19]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell is rooted in long-standing policy disagreements, particularly regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, which Trump believes are too slow and detrimental to economic growth [3][5]. - The legal framework protecting Federal Reserve officials complicates any potential dismissal, as the President can only remove them for "serious misconduct" through judicial processes, indicating that Trump's threats may be more about political pressure than actual intent [5][19]. - The internal division within the White House is notable, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocating for stability in monetary policy, contrasting with Trump's aggressive stance [8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts, with a recent 25 basis point cut reflecting ongoing debates about the economic outlook [13][15]. - Trump's push for rapid rate cuts conflicts with the Fed's cautious approach, as inflation pressures and a resilient job market suggest that aggressive easing could lead to negative economic consequences [15][19]. - The potential appointment of a new Fed chair aligned with Trump's views could further undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the long-term stability of U.S. monetary policy [17][19].