Core Viewpoint - President Trump boasts about economic achievements and pressures the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, citing strong stock market performance and lack of inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Technology stocks, industrial stocks, and the Nasdaq index have reached all-time highs [1] - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 47% since the imposition of tariffs [1] - The U.S. is currently imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Pressure - Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to quickly lower interest rates to reflect the strong economic performance [1] - He emphasizes that the U.S. should be at the "top" and claims there is no inflation [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, citing national security concerns and the need to rebuild the domestic copper industry [1][5][7] - Copper is a critical metal used in various industries, including electronics, construction, and automotive, with nearly half of U.S. copper procurement relying on foreign suppliers [2][7] - The decision to impose tariffs on copper comes after a 270-day investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which was initiated in February [2][7] Group 2 - In addition to copper tariffs, the U.S. may impose new tariffs of up to 200% on foreign-manufactured pharmaceuticals, although these tariffs may not take effect for another year to a year and a half [9][12] - The pharmaceutical industry has expressed concerns that such tariffs could lead to increased drug prices in the U.S., as approximately 70% of finished drugs are imported, and over 30% of raw materials are also sourced from abroad [14][23] - The ongoing tariff discussions reflect a broader trend of uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, which has been characterized by frequent changes and a lack of clear strategic direction [16][19] Group 3 - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that U.S. trade policies could lead to increased global trade fragmentation and instability in supply chains, potentially harming the world economy [20][23] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is expected to have negative long-term effects on the U.S. economy and its relationships with major trading partners, with no clear winners emerging from the situation [23]

金十数据7月10日讯，美联储官员穆萨莱姆表示，当前经济形势良好，劳动力市场处于或接近充分就业 状态。通胀仍存在一些上行风险，不过货币政策目前适度限制，金融环境也较为有利于经济增长。近期 观察到通胀出现了一些积极趋势，但由于关税的影响，预计未来通胀前景将会有所上升。但目前还无法 确定关税是否会带来更持久的影响。高利润空间为企业提供了吸收部分关税冲击的余地，而美元贬值可 能进一步推动通胀。穆萨莱姆指出，关税的具体影响可能要到今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现出 来。 美联储穆萨莱姆：关税影响可能要到年底或明年初显现 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：高利润空间提供了一部分吸收关税的余地。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：关税的影响可能在今年晚些时候或明年初才会完全显现。 ...

金融环境支持经济增长。 关税将导致通胀上升。 关税可能会对价格产生暂时或持续的影响。 美国圣路易联储主席Musalem：经济处于良好状态，或接近充分就业。 通胀存在一些上行风险。 货币政策略带限制性。 高利润率为吸收关税提供了一些空间。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：目前还无法确定关税是否只会对通胀产生一次性影响，还是会带来更持久的影响。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：近期通胀出现了一些积极的趋势，但由于关税的原因，未来前景预计将会上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists and analysts warn that President Trump's comprehensive trade policy, which imposes high tariffs on most goods entering the U.S., will lead to significant price increases for consumers, despite recent economic data showing relatively mild overall inflation [1] Group 1: Price Increases and Inflation Data - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from May indicates price increases in several tariff-sensitive categories, with appliance prices rising 0.8% in both April and May, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly four years [1] - Toy prices have increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.3%, matching a four-year high [1] - Home goods, tools, and sports equipment prices are accelerating after previously declining in the pandemic years [1] - DataWeave's analysis shows that home and furniture prices have accelerated significantly since January, with increases of 1.1% in February, 2.1% in March, 2.8% in April, 3.7% in May, and 4.7% in June [1] Group 2: Retailer-Specific Price Changes - Clothing and footwear prices remained stable from February to May but saw a slight increase in June, rising 1.7% compared to January [2][3] - Some retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have experienced larger price increases for toys, with prices rising 7.4% and 6.1% respectively since January, compared to an average increase of 3.8% [3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - DataWeave's CEO predicts broader price increases in the coming months as tariff effects propagate through the supply chain, with expectations of "shrinkflation" and an increase in private label products due to consumer resistance to price hikes [3] - Wells Fargo anticipates that the upcoming June CPI report may mark a turning point, with higher effective tariff rates impacting overall inflation, particularly in core goods categories [3] Group 4: Mechanisms Behind Mild Inflation - Tariffs have been implemented in phases, with the earliest tariffs taking effect in February and March, while most were announced or implemented after April [4] - Trade policies and tariffs are subject to change, with many announced tariffs being delayed, canceled, or unexpectedly adjusted [4] - The transportation of goods takes time, with shipping from other countries to the U.S. potentially taking weeks or more, and domestic supply chains also requiring time to process imported goods [5] - Companies had stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, and some costs have been absorbed by foreign exporters, with Goldman Sachs estimating that about 20% of the additional costs are borne by exporters [6] - Businesses are hesitant to pass on high prices due to weakened consumer spending power, leading to reduced pricing power for companies [6] - Consumer spending is more focused on services during summer, with expectations that product prices will become more significant in household budgets during the fall and winter [6] - Economic data often lags behind current events, with key inflation data for June set to be released soon [6][7] - Rising commodity prices have been reflected in inflation data but are largely masked by falling gasoline prices and slowing price increases in the service sector [7] - Goldman Sachs noted that the effects of tariffs have not yet strongly appeared in official consumer price data, which is not surprising [8]

巴西财长Haddad：即使是之前的10%关税也没有道理，因为美国对巴西保持贸易顺差。 ...