中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场对突发性、非系统性风险的敏感度下降，情绪释放速度加快，未来地缘关 | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 税变得更加复杂，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再次集中爆发。 | | | | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | | | | | | | | | 白银基本面，目前全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，各国财政 | 白银 | 宽幅震荡 | 关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银跟随黄金波动，价格没有摆脱此前区间， | | | | | | | 操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8550】 | | | | | | | | | | 美国制造业数据低于预期，ADP | 就业不佳，特朗普威逼美联储降息，美元指数走弱， | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜围绕 | 7 | 万 | 8 | 关口震荡，前期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | ...

美元指数日内跌幅达0.5%，报98.7351。 ...

Core Insights - The ADP private employment report for May showed an increase of only 37,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 114,000 [1] - The April data was revised down by 20,000 to 60,000 jobs, indicating a downward trend in employment growth [1] - The 37,000 jobs added in May represent the lowest level since March 2023 [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP report, the dollar index (DXY) experienced a short-term decline, with a drop of 20 points [1] - The report's reliability as a predictor for the upcoming employment data on Friday is questioned, yet it still influenced market sentiment against the dollar [1]

小非农数据公布后，美元指数DXY失守99，日内跌幅0.27%。现货黄金一度走高6美元，最高至3354.6美 元/盎司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - **Other Data**: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].

美元指数日内波动不大，据媒体报道，作为贸易谈判的一部分，印尼将给予美国关税优惠。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies due to falling inflation in the Eurozone and higher-than-expected job vacancies in the US [1][2] - The US Labor Department reported that job vacancies in April 2025 reached 7.391 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million and the revised figure of 7.2 million from March [1] - Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is below the market expectation of 2% and the previous month's figure of 2.2%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2] Group 2 - The Euro traded at 1.1375 USD, down from 1.1441 USD the previous trading day, while the British Pound was at 1.3525 USD, lower than 1.3540 USD [2] - The US dollar was exchanged at 143.91 Japanese Yen, up from 142.82 Yen, and at 0.8238 Swiss Francs, higher than 0.8170 Francs [2] - The US dollar also traded at 1.3716 Canadian Dollars, slightly up from 1.3712 Dollars, and at 9.6231 Swedish Krona, compared to 9.5267 Krona previously [2]

周二（6月3日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.54%，报99.240点，日内交投区间为98.583-99.328点，全天 持续震荡上行。 彭博美元指数涨0.38%，报1213.36点，日内交投区间为1207.93-1214.67点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold reaching a near 20-day high of $3417.8 per ounce [2] - The increase in gold prices has also led to a rise in jewelry gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook adjusting its gold jewelry price to 1020 yuan per gram, up by 22 yuan from the previous day [2] - The gold-silver ratio has experienced substantial fluctuations, reaching a five-year high, indicating potential market corrections in the future [2][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the increase in U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has heightened global economic uncertainty [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May showed a decline in new import orders, reflecting concerns over supply chain stability, further driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [3][7] - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a 5.31% increase compared to gold's 2.8%, driven by the extreme gold-silver ratio and market sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - As of June 3, the gold-silver ratio reached 1:100, indicating that one ounce of gold can be exchanged for 100 ounces of silver, significantly higher than the historical average of 53-66 ounces [4] - This extreme ratio suggests that either silver is severely undervalued or gold is overvalued, with a high probability of mean reversion in the medium to long term [4] - Historical data indicates that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, there is a 70% chance of silver prices rising, targeting a ratio range of 60-70 ounces [4] Group 4 - The volatility of silver is greater due to its smaller market size compared to gold, meaning that equal capital inflows can lead to larger price movements in silver [5] - The improvement in China's manufacturing PMI indicates a gradual economic recovery, which is expected to boost industrial demand for silver, as it is widely used in various sectors [5] - The anticipated economic recovery is likely to increase silver demand, further supporting its price [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.86 on June 3, which reduced the holding cost of gold and contributed to its price increase [6] - The ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies and high fiscal deficits has shaken investor confidence in dollar assets, leading to a potential decline in the dollar's value [6] - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has heightened concerns over the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, prompting capital outflows from dollar assets [6] Group 6 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.5, indicating a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for three consecutive months, which adds pressure to the dollar index [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with a 99.1% probability of no rate change in June, reflecting cautious monetary policy amid economic weakness [7] - The combination of weak manufacturing data and inflation expectations suggests limited potential for rate cuts in the near term, impacting gold prices [7] Group 7 - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly if rate cuts are implemented, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [8] - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to further elevate gold's appeal as a safe haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [8] - However, gold prices may face resistance at previous highs around $3400-$3450 per ounce, and any easing of trade tensions could lead to price corrections [9]