今日看点 经济观察网讯 7月9日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、中国6月CPI、PPI数据将公布 7月9日，国家统计局将公布2025年6月份CPI（居民消费价格指数）和PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）数据。 2、国新办将举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会（国家发展改革委） 7月9日上午10时，国新办将举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题首场新闻发布会，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁介绍"十四五"时期经济社会发展成就，并 答记者问。 3、第十三届中国(西部)电子信息博览会将举行 7月9日至11日，第十三届中国(西部)电子信息博览会将在四川成都举行。本届西部电博会推出电子元器件、集成电路、特种电子、数字产业、机器人等主题 展区，预计将吸引超2万名专业观众参与。 7月9日，16家公司共发布18个股票回购相关进展。其中，3家公司首次披露股票回购预案，4家公司披露股票回购实施进展，9家公司回购方案已实施完毕。 从首次披露回购预案来看，湖南海利、硕贝德、顾家家居分别拟回购不超1.58亿元、3000.0万元、334.72万元。从回购实施进展来看，德展健康、嘉化能 源、天奈科技回购金额最高，分别回购1. ...

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.47 with a 4.37bp increase, GC001 at 1.49 with a 5.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 1.80bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.40bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.15bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.10bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3315 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Tuesday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3965, down 0.43%; the SSE 50 at 2732, down 0.33%; the CSI 500 at 5900, down 0.19%; and the CSI 1000 at 6327, up 0.24% [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 67470, down 46.5, and the open interest was 243305, down 8.5; for the SSE 50 futures (IH), the trading volume was 32788, down 50.5, and the open interest was 85845, down 12.2; for the CSI 500 futures (IC), the trading volume was 55201, down 44.4, and the open interest was 220939, down 6.6; for the CSI 1000 futures (IM), the trading volume was 136314, down 45.5, and the open interest was 320782, down 8.7 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets was 12087 billion yuan, a decrease of 2199 billion yuan from last Friday. Most industry sectors rose, with the power, grid equipment, household light industry, power supply equipment, diversified finance, real estate development, packaging materials, and public utility sectors leading the gains, while the biological products and medical service sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Stock Index Outlook - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, there is resistance for the stock index to break through further and it may show a volatile pattern [6] - In the long term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real - estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is yet to be finalized, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity easing expectations and changes in the geopolitical situation will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.88%, 8.92%, 5.87%, and 4.58% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 21.78%, 7.93%, 4.25%, and 1.92% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 23.17%, 15.23%, 12.77%, and 10.37% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 31.43%, 20.58%, 16.80%, and 14.00% respectively [7]

欢迎进入链接网页右侧下载本周财经数据与事件精美周历壁纸：今日有1310亿元7天期逆回购到期、 澳 洲联储利率决议、美国6月纽约联储1年通胀预期。 相关链接 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 高票息信用债行情兑现 ——信用分析周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/4） 投资要点： 本周（6/30-7/4）市场概览： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情。主体负面：本周潍坊公信国有资产经营有限公司、联储证券股份有限 公司、登封市建设投资集团有限公司、聊城市安泰城乡投资开发有限责任公司列入 主体观察名单；黑龙江创达集团有限公司主体评级调低。债项负面：中燃投资有限 公司所发行的 10 只银行间债项隐含评级调低；康佳集团股份有限公司所发行的 6 只 公司债隐含评级调低；其他债项负面包括"融茂优 B"隐含评级调低，"H20 方圆 1" 展期，"23 创 01EB"债项评级调低，"23 联储一"列入债项观察名单。转债负面： 双良节能系统股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"双良转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 20275 亿元逆回购到期，本周央行累计开展 6522 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 13753 亿 ...

Core Points - The central bank conducted a 340 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 4, indicating active liquidity management in the market [1] - A total of 5,259 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured on the same day, leading to a net withdrawal of 4,919 billion yuan [1] Summary by Category - **Monetary Policy Actions** - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation of 340 billion yuan reflects its strategy to manage short-term liquidity in the financial system [1] - **Market Liquidity** - The maturity of 5,259 billion yuan in reverse repos highlights significant liquidity dynamics, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,919 billion yuan, which may impact market interest rates and liquidity conditions [1]

Monetary Policy and Market Rates - The People's Bank of China conducted a 572 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,521 billion yuan due to 5,093 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor falling by 5.00 basis points to 1.3150%, and the 7-day Shibor decreasing by 4.10 basis points to 1.4560% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates continued to trend downward, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.8 basis points, respectively, to 1.315% and 1.3714%, while transaction volumes increased significantly [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 3.8 basis points and 5.2 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes showing a decrease [4] Funding Conditions - Overall funding conditions were reported to be relaxed, with overnight rates trading in a range of 1.30% to 1.50% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on July 3, 58 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance amount of 240.1 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, yields showed slight declines across various maturities, with trading activity concentrated mainly in the 9-month and 1-year maturities [10] - The 1-year national bank stock ended at approximately 1.595, down about 0.5 basis points from the previous close, indicating a narrowing of yield spreads among different maturities [10] Banking Sector Developments - The Bank of Communications has closed nearly 30 credit card centers this year, with a focus on accelerating the transformation of credit card operations [12] - New policies supporting the conversion of commercial housing loans to housing provident fund loans have been introduced in multiple cities, aimed at reducing financial burdens for homebuyers [12] - China Merchants Bank received approval to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing its comprehensive operational capabilities and supporting high-quality development [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's open - market operations last week had a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan, and this week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature. The central bank will conduct a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity. It is expected that the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through operations in the second half of the year [4][5] - In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. Due to insufficient domestic demand support, significant policy support, and frequent overseas disturbances, the upward and downward movement of the stock index was restricted. In the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone. Policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - **Interest Rate Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a - 0.17bp change, DR007 at 1.70 with a 1.18bp change, GC001 at 3.89 with a 216.50bp change, etc. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 30 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan. This week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, and a 30 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation will be carried out on the 25th, with a net injection of 31.8 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Quotes**: On the last trading day of the week, the CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 3921.8, the SSE 50 fell 1.13% to 2707.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.44% to 5863.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 6276.9. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan. The industry sectors showed more gains than losses [6] - **Stock Index Analysis**: In the first half of the year, the stock index showed a volatile pattern. In the second half of the year, policy support for domestic demand is expected to increase, and overseas factors will bring trading opportunities [7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all have different levels of premium or discount rates [8]

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 111 billion yuan [1] - The Canadian government has canceled its digital services tax to advance trade negotiations with the United States, with discussions between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump aimed at reaching an agreement by July 21 [1] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.93%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.12% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows mixed signals with some indicators stable and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, while PPI continued to decline, and industrial enterprise profits were under pressure. Fiscal policy is expected to play a more active role in the second half of the year, and the bond market is generally optimistic in July. The stock market presents structural opportunities, especially in certain sectors like innovation drugs and AI - related areas [2][14][22][33] - Global trade is affected by the US "equivalent tariff" policy, which has drawn strong opposition from China. International geopolitical events also impact commodity markets, such as the situation in the Middle East affecting the oil market, and Canada's digital service tax on US tech companies causing trade frictions [3][15] - The gold market has long - term upward potential but is subject to significant short - term volatility due to Trump's unpredictable policies. The copper market has seen shortages outside the US due to import investigations, and the lithium market continues its downward trend [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from April. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators showed different trends, and industrial enterprise profits in January - May decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [1] - The trade balance in May showed exports growing by 4.8% year - on - year and imports declining by 3.4% year - on - year. The CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China will release June PMI data on June 30. The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies in the second half of the year, and incremental policies may be introduced. The US "equivalent tariff" policy has been strongly opposed by China, and domestic refined oil prices may rise on July 1 [2][3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year - on - year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption and income declined, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year, with the first cut possibly in September [4] Metals - In May, the upstream physical gold demand weakened seasonally, and the gold出库 volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 35% month - on - month. Gold prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, and there is long - term upward potential. The copper market outside the US is facing shortages, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada imposed a 50% tariff on steel imports from non - free - trade - agreement countries. The iron ore market may face negative feedback in the future due to factors such as the end of export rush and unstable domestic demand [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's first national - level continental shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang reached a record high daily output. The Haifa refinery in Israel has partially resumed production. The ICE Brent crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions, and OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July [10] Agricultural Products - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions of Japan. Argentine exporters have declared 6.1 million metric tons of soybeans and their derivatives for external sales in June [11] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan. This week, 2.0275 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature [13] Key News - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested strengthening policy regulation. The fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies and may introduce incremental policies. The Sino - US trade teams are in close communication, and China will approve eligible export applications, while the US will cancel some restrictive measures [14] - From January to May, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The total revenue of state - owned enterprises was 32.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the total profit was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [16] - The bond market is generally positive, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining. The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and falling, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1690 on June 30, down 6.0 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% in New York trading [26] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a low - volatility state in the short term. The current active equity products are over - allocated in stocks and under - allocated in bonds, and future products may increase the allocation of equity assets with similar bond attributes [27] - Huatai Macro points out that the impact of tariffs on industrial enterprise profits is emerging, and there is still great uncertainty in tariff policies after July 9. Guosheng Fixed Income suggests maintaining a long - term position in bonds and seizing the bull market after the end of the quarter [28][29] Today's Reminders - On June 30, 241 bonds will be listed, 38 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will make payments, and 617 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - Starting from June 30, the share transaction fee in the Hong Kong market will be adjusted from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, which is beneficial for reducing small - scale transaction costs and optimizing institutional investors' trading strategies [31] - In the first half of this year, hot topics such as innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and the Beijing Stock Exchange drove the market. The performance of funds investing in innovative drugs was outstanding, while AI - themed funds had poor performance. The Hong Kong stock market's financing was booming, and the A - share market showed an upward trend last week [32][33] - Some institutions believe that the stock market will present structural opportunities during the interim report season. AI and military industries are expected to be the focus of structural opportunities in the third quarter, and new consumption and innovative drugs may rebound after June 30 [33][34]

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on "Promoting High-Quality Development of Culture and Tourism to Enrich People's Lives" [2] - The Taiwan Affairs Office will hold a regular press conference to address recent cross-strait hot issues [3] Group 2 - A total of 8 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, with a total unlock volume of 176 million shares, amounting to a market value of 1.019 billion yuan [4] - Among the companies, Baosteel Packaging, Ruifeng Bank, and Baoming Technology have the highest unlock volumes and market values, with unlock volumes of 143 million shares, 29.01 million shares, and 1.2653 million shares respectively [4] - Baosteel Packaging has the highest unlock market value at 682 million yuan, followed by Ruifeng Bank at 173 million yuan and Baoming Technology at 7.5891 million yuan [4] - One company has an unlock ratio exceeding 10%, with Baosteel Packaging at 11.19%, Ruifeng Bank at 1.48%, and Baoming Technology at 0.7% [4] Group 3 - 26 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 28 related announcements made [5] - Among these, 11 companies have disclosed stock repurchase plans for the first time, with the highest planned repurchase amounts from Shanying International at 1 billion yuan, Shengxin Lithium Energy at 500 million yuan, and Hualan Biological Engineering at 140 million yuan [5] - Three companies have had their repurchase plans approved by shareholders, with the highest amounts from Yanshan Technology at 60 million yuan, China Resources Materials at 24.96 million yuan, and Bayi Steel at 18.4575 million yuan [5] Group 4 - A total of 156.3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, with an operation rate of 1.4% [6]