FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 关注中国11月通胀数据和美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明年经 ...

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher as investors awaited inflation data from China and an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve [1] - Traders anticipate the Federal Reserve will announce a 0.25 percentage point cut to its benchmark overnight lending rate, consistent with previous cuts in September and October [2]

Core Viewpoint - Deloitte emphasizes the increasing importance of the upcoming Australian inflation data, set to be released in January, for the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Stephen Smith, a partner at Deloitte Economic Consulting, indicates that all attention will be on the CPI data for November and December following the RBA's decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% [1] - Smith anticipates that the RBA will adopt a data-driven "wait-and-see" approach in the coming months [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - The central bank faces a dilemma as the Australian economy is currently stagnating, but a potential acceleration in economic growth could reignite inflationary pressures [1]

贵金属期货日报 2025/12/8 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13706 | 958.700 | -2.3↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | +19.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 197,193.00 | +240.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 20,186.00 | -5376.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 298,231.00 | +60534.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 2,033,731.00 | +329517.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 91299 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 699,291 | 11335↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 954.10 | -2.40↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 13,5 ...

Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports, and conference presentations. Stock index futures were higher on Friday, as traders looked forward to fresh inflation data in hopes of gauging the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Wall Street's major averages ended mixed on Thursday, a ...

美国资产管理机构Mercer全球顾问公司（Mercer）负责投资组合管理的副总裁大卫·克拉考尔（David Krakauer）说，当日公布的通胀数据巩固了市场定价所反映的美联储下周继续降息预期。 密歇根大学当日发布的初步调查数据显示，美国2月份消费者信心指数为53.3，高于市场预期的52和11 月的51。美国消费者对一年后通胀预期从前一个月的4.5%回落至4.1%。 个股方面，奈菲公司当日宣布将以720亿美元的定价收购华纳兄弟探索公司大部分资产，后者旗下探索 全球将剥离成为一家独立上市公司。奈菲公司股价当日下跌2.89%，收于每股100.24美元。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数周五收涨1.29%，中概股普涨。阿里巴巴涨0.56%、京东涨0.54%、百度涨 5.85%、拼多多涨0.68%、哔哩哔哩涨0.39%、蔚来涨0.6%、网易涨0.44%。 消息面上，美国商务部5日公布的数据显示，9月美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比增长2.8%，高 于前一月的2.7%，与市场预期一致。数据还显示，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，9月核心个人消 费支出价格指数同比涨幅为2.8%，而前一月数值和市场预期均为2.9%。 美国银行全 ...

美国国债结束了八个月以来表现最差的一周，10年期和30年期收益率出现自4月份以来最大单周涨幅， 其中10年期收益率收于4.14%。市场抛售的主要驱动因素是相互矛盾的经济数据（尤其是劳动力市场） 以及加速至2.8%的通胀数据，这使得投资者对美联储明年将进行额外降息的预期转为怀疑和"鹰派"。此 外，美国政府本周关于美联储领导层人事变动的评论（如财政部长提出地区银行行长应有居住地要求） 加剧了市场不确定性，也对美债价格走势产生了影响。 ...

Market Performance - Indian equity benchmarks experienced strong gains, with the Sensex closing at 85,712.37, up 447.05 points or 0.52 per cent, and the Nifty advancing 152.70 points or 0.59 per cent to settle at 26,186.45 [1] - The Nifty Bank index rose 488.50 points or 0.82 per cent to 59,777.20, while the Nifty Financial Services surged 270.45 points or 0.98 per cent to 27,881.90 [4] Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent, marking a total of 125 basis points in cumulative cuts since February 2025, driven by record low retail inflation of 0.25 per cent in October [2] - The RBI also announced ₹1 lakh crore of open market operations in government securities and a three-year dollar-rupee buy-sell swap of 5 billion USD to inject durable liquidity into the system [2] Sector Performance - Banking and financial services stocks led the market advance, with notable gains from Shriram Finance (up 3.04 per cent), State Bank of India (up 2.49 per cent), and Bajaj Finserv (up 2.13 per cent) [4] - The broader market showed mixed results, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index gaining 294.80 points or 0.49 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 100.10 points or 0.57 per cent [5] Stock-Specific Movements - Kaynes Technologies saw a significant decline of 12 per cent due to potential governance issues, while IndiGo shares fell 1.2 per cent amid operational disruptions [6] Currency and Commodity Markets - The Indian rupee traded marginally weaker at 89.92 against the dollar, influenced by foreign institutional investor selling [7] - Spot gold prices remained above $4,220 per ounce, with WTI crude oil prices steady near $59.70 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions [7] Future Outlook - Markets are expected to focus on December-quarter results and updates on the US Federal Reserve's policy path, with immediate resistance seen around 26,300 and crucial support between 25,950 and 26,000 [8]

周五(12月5日)亚市午后盘，现货白银持稳走高，日内涨幅扩大至2.00%，截至发稿，白银价格暂报58.16 美元/盎司，上涨1.86%，目前来看，白银盘内短线偏上行，本交易日关注美国9月PCE物价指数，如数 据显示通胀压力缓和，白银或走强再度触及59美元或更高位置。 【要闻速递】 不过，在下周利率会议等一系列落地之后，市场将再度回归到明年的降息周期前景之中，那么从本周到 下周的调整则仍可视为入场的时机和节点。 因为，不管是11月非农数据和CPI数据在12月降息会议之前还是之后公布，区别就是先涨还是后涨，其 美国政府的停摆，也已经影响到了11月初的经济，故此，大概率上，11月非农和CPI将会支撑后续的降 息前景。 美国劳工部公布的最新初请失业金数据显示，截至11月29日当周初请人数降至19.1万，明显低于前值 21.8万，也低于市场预期的22万。 【最新白银行情解析】 昨日现货白银承压，因交易商在试图突破58.60-58.80美元阻力位未果后获利了结。跌破56.50美元将为 测试52.60-52.80美元支撑位开辟道路。 日图来看，白银价格目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方， ...

Group 1 - Global asset trading is cautious, with the Dow Jones briefly hovering above 48,000 before a slight decline, and gold stabilizing around 4,200 USD amid mixed employment and yield signals [1] - The focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision on December 10, with expectations for a potential third consecutive rate cut [1][2] - The cumulative number of layoffs this year has reached 1.17 million, indicating a significant cooling in the labor market, which is pushing the market towards rate cut expectations [1] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett's inclusion in the potential Federal Reserve chair list has heightened market attention, with his statement suggesting a "very likely" 25 basis point rate cut in December [2] - The probability of a rate cut next week has increased to the range of 87% to 90%, reflecting a consensus judgment in the market [2] - The market narrative is focused on the PCE data and the Federal Reserve meeting, with gold maintaining its position near key levels and the dollar remaining stable amid data fluctuations [3] Group 3 - The short-term impact of inflation data indicates that a strong PCE could lead to a drop in gold prices, while a weak reading would further support gold [4] - The market has already priced in the rate cut, and any deviation from expectations could trigger rapid pricing adjustments [4]