Core Points - The recent tariff modifications announced by President Trump have resulted in an average tariff rate of 15%, which is significantly higher than the rates prior to his administration, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy [2][4] - The new tariffs are expected to create uncertainty for manufacturers and could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers, as the tariffs are broadly applied and may affect various sectors [4][8] - The potential economic impact includes a projected reduction of 1.8% in U.S. GDP over the next two to three years and a 1.1% increase in core prices due to the tariff adjustments [4][5] Tariff Details - The new tariffs include a minimum base rate of 10% and higher rates of 15% or more for countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus [2][3] - Specific punitive tariffs include a 39% rate on Swiss imports and a 35% increase on certain Canadian goods, highlighting the targeted nature of these tariffs [3][4] - The average tariff rate is projected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% if the new tariffs are implemented as planned [4] Economic Reactions - Economists predict that the tariffs will lead to a demand shock globally, with many central banks considering interest rate cuts in response to the economic slowdown [3][5] - The tariffs are expected to create a significant burden on U.S. households, depending on how exporters and importers share the cost [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs may lead companies to adopt a cautious approach to investment and planning [6][7] Federal Reserve Implications - The widespread nature of the tariffs complicates the Federal Reserve's position, as there may be a direct impact on consumer prices, which could influence monetary policy decisions [8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized the need to remain vigilant regarding inflation risks, indicating that the tariffs could have both short-term and potentially lasting effects on price levels [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs credit strategists are urging clients to hedge risks as the yield premium on global corporate notes has narrowed to its lowest level since 2007 [2][3] - The narrowing yield premium on global investment-grade notes has reached 79 basis points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [3] - Despite the significant narrowing of credit spreads and the S&P 500 reaching a record high, Federal Reserve officials have avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, indicating a need for more data to assess inflation risks [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that trade policy has become more predictable compared to March and April, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks [3] - As investors begin to digest the differentiated impacts across the supply chain, the effects will become increasingly important through industry-specific variations [3]

Group 1 - The current trade policy has become more predictable, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks, which has eased investment sentiment [1][2] - As of Thursday, the global investment-grade corporate bond yield spread has narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [2][4] - Despite the improved market sentiment and the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, the Federal Reserve has not signaled an imminent rate cut, indicating that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that market participants should not overlook potential risk factors due to current optimism, including the possibility of economic growth falling below expectations and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5] - The narrowing of credit spreads and the overall market optimism may mask underlying risks, prompting Goldman Sachs to advise clients to maintain certain hedging positions in their portfolios [3][4] - Although negative news related to tariffs is no longer the main driver of risk sentiment, the impact of tariffs on different segments of the supply chain will lead to performance differentiation among companies, becoming a new source of market risk [5]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs credit strategists urge clients to hedge risks as global corporate bond yield spreads have tightened to the lowest level since 2007 [1] - Recent trade agreements between the US and several trading partners provide clarity on tariff issues, leading investors to overlook short-term economic growth weakness as long as recession risks are controlled [1] - Bloomberg index indicates that global investment-grade bond yield spreads narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, prior to the global financial crisis [1] Economic Context - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high this week, reflecting investor confidence despite tightening credit spreads [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have not indicated an imminent rate cut, suggesting that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [1]

摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙表示，美联储在做出利率决策时需要更为谨慎。他警告，市场可能低估通胀风 险，同时高估美联储降息的可能性。至于谈到与其他国家的关税谈判，戴蒙称到目前为止，一切都很 好。 ...

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 955.37 tons of gold as of July 30, which is a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day [1] - As of July 30, the spot gold price closed at $3,275.29 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.54%, with an intraday high of $3,333.94 and a low of $3,267.79 [1] Group 2 - President Trump's aggressive policies are pressuring for looser monetary policy, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has adopted a wait-and-see approach amid escalating trade wars, inflation risks, and economic uncertainty [3] - The second quarter GDP data revealed a significant disparity between economic appearance and reality, with a reported growth rate of 3%, largely driven by businesses stockpiling before high tariffs, while domestic demand remains weak [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on India, increased tariffs on Brazil, and levied a 50% tariff on copper, escalating global trade tensions, particularly highlighted by the breakdown of negotiations with India, a key trading partner [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stance of the Federal Reserve, as articulated by Chairman Powell, is aligned with the prevailing inflation risks [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is maintaining its current policy to address inflation concerns effectively [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized that the policy decisions are made with careful consideration of economic indicators and inflation trends [1] - The Fed's approach aims to balance economic growth while managing inflation risks [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3327.60 per ounce, showing a rebound after a significant drop, with ongoing market speculation ahead of key economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - Crude oil prices have risen over 3% to approximately $69.22 per barrel, driven by optimism regarding the easing of trade tensions and increased pressure from the U.S. on Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with market expectations for potential rate cuts in September or by the end of the year, which could impact the strength of the U.S. dollar and subsequently affect gold prices [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently facing resistance around $3438 and has retreated to a strong support level near $3320, indicating a potential trading opportunity for short-term positions [3] - The trading strategy for gold suggests entering long positions around $3325 with a stop loss at $3315, targeting price levels between $3338 and $3355 [3] - Crude oil is showing a strong upward trend, with a focus on confirming a second upward movement after a potential pullback, indicating a bullish outlook in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% as inflation pressures decrease faster than expected [1] - The Central Bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy to ensure inflation returns to target levels by 2026, with average benchmark rates projected between 18.8% to 19.6% in 2025 and 12.0% to 13.0% in 2026 [1] - The Central Bank forecasts that under the current monetary policy, the annual inflation rate will decline to 6.0% to 7.0% in 2025 and to 4.0% in 2026, stabilizing thereafter [1] Group 2 - Despite the decrease in inflation risks, the Central Bank notes that medium-term inflation risks remain higher than deflation risks, influenced by long-term deviations from balanced growth and external trade environment deterioration [2] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted as a significant source of uncertainty that could impact inflation through changes in the ruble exchange rate [2] - The Central Bank previously reduced the benchmark rate from a historical high of 21% to 20% on June 6, 2023, and plans to discuss the next rate level in a meeting on September 12 [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - The macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, but there is a trend towards a decline in global risk-free interest rates and improved risk appetite[6] - The U.S. stock market reached new highs, with major indices maintaining elevated levels, indicating a strong market performance[9] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, above the expected 2.6%, while the core CPI rose to 2.9%, aligning with expectations[28] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation risk pricing has intensified, with significant market volatility observed following the CPI release, highlighting a growing focus on inflation narratives[10] - The latest CPI data reflects a divergence in inflation trends, with strong commodity inflation and weak service inflation, suggesting future inflation risks may remain below market expectations[20] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.1%, indicating resilient consumer spending despite price increases driven by tariffs[34] Group 3: Policy and Political Influences - Trump's shift from a populist agenda to a market-focused approach has been pivotal in explaining the market rebound since April, with policies aimed at stabilizing and boosting the economy[15] - The tightening concerns are viewed as short-term, while expansionary drivers are expected to dominate the trend moving forward[20] - The geopolitical landscape and policy uncertainties continue to pose risks to economic stability, impacting market sentiment[3]