Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the U.S. stock market that began in late October appears to be ongoing, with the market showing signs of being oversold, which creates conditions for a technical rebound. However, upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the strength of this rebound or whether a deeper correction is needed to attract buyers [1] Group 1 - The market is currently in an oversold state, which may facilitate a technical rebound [1] - Upcoming economic data will play a decisive role in influencing Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - The strength of the potential rebound or the need for further correction will depend on the impact of the economic data [1]

Market Overview - Risk assets have experienced a significant sell-off, with cryptocurrencies and tech stocks declining sharply. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell over 5%, while the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market exceeded $830 million, affecting approximately 227,000 traders [1][2][3]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin's price dropped to approximately $87,200, marking a decline of over 7% year-to-date, which could lead to its first annual drop since 2022. The likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end has risen to 50%, while the chance of it surpassing $100,000 by 2025 is only 30% [2][3]. - The total liquidation of long and short positions in cryptocurrencies over the past 30 days reached $8.25 billion, indicating significant market volatility [3]. Stock Market Impact - Concerns over tech stock valuation bubbles have intensified, leading to a sharp decline in major U.S. stock indices. Notable tech stocks like Sandisk and Micron saw declines of over 20% and 10%, respectively [4][5]. - The South Korean Composite Index and the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 3.65% and 2.26%, respectively, with major tech companies like SoftBank and SK Hynix experiencing significant losses [5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts has contributed to the pressure on risk assets. Recent employment data showed a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, leading Morgan Stanley to abandon its previous expectation of a rate cut in December [5][6]. - Several Federal Reserve officials have downplayed the likelihood of a December rate cut, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the potential for asset price adjustments [6][7]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment reflects a growing apprehension regarding the stability of both the cryptocurrency and stock markets, driven by macroeconomic factors and Federal Reserve policies [3][6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal, with major indices initially rising due to strong earnings reports from Nvidia and Walmart, but later plummeting as technology stocks faced heavy selling, resulting in the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.56%, and Nasdaq down 2.15%, marking the largest single-day drop in months [4] - Technology giants saw significant declines, with Nvidia initially rising over 5% but closing down more than 3%, and other major tech stocks like Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft also falling, reflecting growing concerns over AI stock valuations despite strong earnings [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to 26.42, the highest in seven months, indicating a coordinated risk-off trading environment across various asset classes, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] Group 2 - The A-share market mirrored the U.S. trend, opening higher but closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40% and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%, as investor confidence remained weak with a trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [4] - The AI sector in A-shares was particularly affected, with funds withdrawing from related stocks following Nvidia's strong performance, suggesting that known good news often leads to profit-taking opportunities [4] - Technical indicators showed concerns, with the ChiNext Index breaking below its 60-day moving average and the Shanghai Composite Index facing pressure from its 5-day moving average, indicating potential bearish trends if not corrected soon [4] Group 3 - U.S. employment data presented conflicting signals, with September non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve expressed caution regarding high asset valuations, with officials warning that premature rate cuts could lead to financial instability, leading Morgan Stanley to push back its rate cut expectations to 2026 [4] - Global asset markets reacted negatively, with Bitcoin dropping over 3.5% and gold retreating to $4060 per ounce, while international oil prices fell below $63 per barrel, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment [4]

大跌之时别恐慌！ 昨晚，美股尾盘大跳水，今早亚太股市全线暴跌。虚拟币市场更是发出强烈的空头指引。A股和港股开盘，也是大幅杀跌。全球流动性似乎出现了问 题。 全线杀跌 | | 名称 ▼ | 月 ▼ | | | - - - - - 最低 - - - 涨跌额 ▼ | | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 时间 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | = US 30 | | 45,958.50 | 45,986.00 | 45,717.30 | +206.20 | +0.45% | 10:16:02 9 | | | = US 500 | | 6,564.80 | 6,571.50 | 6,523.30 | +25.80 | +0.40% | 10:16:00 0 | | 工 | 트 US Tech 100 | | 24,117.60 | 24,160.90 | 23,949.80 | +63.20 | +0.26% | 10:16:00 0 | | | ■ US 2000 | | 2,313.70 | 2,315.70 | 2,295.80 | + ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant adjustment with all three major indices declining, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.18% [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Index down by 2.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 3.32%, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite as the year-end approaches [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline with a drop of 4.77%, while steel, basic chemicals, power equipment, and telecommunications sectors all fell by over 3.5%, indicating profit-taking behavior from investors in previously high-performing sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as agriculture, home appliances, and food and beverage showed resilience, with declines not exceeding 0.6%, attracting funds seeking safety [1] Notable Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, the China Shipbuilding Industry Index surged by 4.7%, driven by policy and funding support, particularly in the defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [2] - The recent adjustment in the market correlates with a significant drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, influenced by concerns over AI valuation bubbles, cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical selling pressure [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of "structural differentiation and volatile consolidation," with a noticeable decline in the willingness to invest due to external pressures from U.S. market dynamics [3] - There is a shift in investment style towards balanced and defensive strategies, moving away from growth sectors, although technology sectors representing new productive forces remain a long-term focus [3] - The current market decline is viewed as a test of patience for investors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on value amidst short-term volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent global market downturn is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's management of expectations and turmoil in the Japanese bond market, but there are emerging positive signals that could stabilize the situation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index opened down 0.87%, with the Shenzhen Component down 1.76% and the ChiNext Index down 2.07%. The decline was broad-based, particularly affecting the computing hardware supply chain, with significant drops in memory, CPO, lithium mining, lithium battery electrolyte, semiconductors, consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and AI application stocks [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.88% and the ChiNext Index by 3.18% by midday, with nearly 5,000 stocks declining [2]. - The Hang Seng Index opened down 1.45% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 2.5%, with major tech stocks like Baidu, Tencent Music, and Bilibili falling more than 4% [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The recent downturn is linked to decreased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing declines in Japanese government bonds. However, there are signs of a potential turnaround, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the Fed should continue its rate-cutting cycle [3]. - Japanese government bond yields have started to decline, suggesting a short-term stabilization. The yen's exchange rate and Japanese bond yields had previously experienced significant drops, with the dollar reaching 157.89 yen, the highest since January [4]. - Japan's Finance Minister expressed concerns over rapid currency fluctuations and indicated that appropriate actions would be taken to address excessive volatility [4].

Core Points - The Asian stock markets showed weak performance in early trading due to a sharp decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a significant drop in US stocks overnight [1] - All three major A-share indices fell collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.18% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13.174 billion yuan, an increase of 2.004 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,900 stocks declining across the market [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as lithium mining, batteries, non-ferrous metals, and photovoltaic equipment experienced significant pullbacks [1] - Conversely, sectors related to China Shipbuilding and agriculture and forestry showed gains despite the overall market downturn [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.07%, dropping 535 points to 25,300 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 3.11% [1] - Technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC both dropping over 5%, and Alibaba falling by 4% [1] - Innovative drug concept stocks saw significant declines, with companies like Hengrui Medicine-B and Tiansheng Pharmaceutical-B dropping over 6% and 7% respectively, indicating a cooling in the innovative drug sector [1] - Macau's gaming stocks fell, with expectations of gaming revenue at 236 billion MOP for next year, and Morgan Stanley predicting a slowdown in November's revenue growth [1] - Photovoltaic stocks continued to decline due to weak overall demand, with Xinyi Solar and New Special Energy dropping by 6.07% and 6.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations led to the US dollar index surpassing 100 points, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal stocks [2] - Non-ferrous metal stocks, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper, both fell over 4%, while lithium stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium saw declines of 10% [2] Group 3 - China Shipbuilding Defense rose by over 3.85%, driven by an upward trend in the shipbuilding industry and increased institutional interest in the military sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian stock markets showed weak performance in early trading due to a sharp decline in U.S. stock markets and a sudden drop in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Market Performance - All three major A-share indices fell collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88% to 3857.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.18% [1] - The North China 50 Index also decreased by 2.78% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13,174 billion yuan, an increase of 2,004 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,900 stocks declining across the market [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as lithium mining, batteries, non-ferrous metals, and photovoltaic equipment experienced significant pullbacks [1] - Conversely, the China Shipbuilding Industry and the agriculture and forestry sectors saw gains despite the overall market downturn [1]