加密货币近日波动加大，12月21日比特币一度拉升，转为上涨冲上89000美元，以太坊一度站上3000美元。 截至发稿，加密货币普跌，比特币跳水转为下跌，以太坊再度跌破3000美元。 最近24小时，全球共有超8.8万人爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $2436.55万 | 4小时爆仓 | $4423.96万 | | 多更 | $2147.07万 | 多車 | $3732.36万 | | 空車 | $289.48万 | 空单 | $691.60万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $7483.73万 | 24小时爆仓 | $1.09亿 | | 多車 | $4561.48万 | 多单 | $5949.89万 | | 空車 | $2922.25万 | 空車 | $4930.40万 | 消息面上，关于美联储未来降息，传来新消息。 据金十数据报道，美联储哈玛克表示，美联储在过去三次会议上连续降息后，未来几个月内没有任何调整利率的必要。哈玛克反 对近期的降息，因为她更担心居高不下的通胀，而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱性。 哈玛克今年并非利率制定委员会的投票成员， ...

最近24小时，全球共有超8.8万人爆仓。 消息面上，关于美联储未来降息，传来新消息。 加密货币近日波动加大，12月21日比特币一度拉升，转为上涨冲上89000美元，以太坊一度站上3000美 元。 截至发稿，加密货币普跌，比特币跳水转为下跌，以太坊再度跌破3000美元。 12月19日（周五）美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.38%，标普500指数涨0.88%，纳指涨1.31%。 部分内容综合自金十数据等 责编：梁秋燕 校对：高源 据金十数据报道，美联储哈玛克表示，美联储在过去三次会议上连续降息后，未来几个月内没有任何调 整利率的必要。哈玛克反对近期的降息，因为她更担心居高不下的通胀，而非潜在的劳动力市场脆弱 性。 哈玛克今年并非利率制定委员会的投票成员，但明年将成为投票委员。"我的基本预期是，可以将利率 维持在当前水平一段时间，至少可以维持到春季。直到我们获得更清晰的证据，表明要么通胀正在回落 至目标水平，要么就业市场出现更实质性的疲软。"她在周四接受《华尔街日报》Take On the Week播客 采访时表示。 此前，有分析师称，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。因11月美国通胀率远低于经 济学 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating information 2. Core View of the Report - The significance of whether the Fed will cut interest rates below the neutral rate to the US Treasury and precious metals markets is analyzed, and four scenarios are proposed, with scenarios two and three having a relatively high probability [2] - Monetary policy may become the focus of China's incremental policies in 2026 [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - After the Fed cut interest rates to the 3.5 - 3.75% range, this round has cumulatively cut interest rates by 175BP. The key to future interest rate cuts lies in whether to cut below the neutral rate. Four scenarios are analyzed, and the impacts on the US Treasury and precious metals markets are different. Scenarios two and three are more likely [2][10][11] - The central economic work conference's requirements imply that fiscal policy in 2026 may maintain the ratios of total fiscal expenditure/GDP and general public budget revenue/GDP stable. With limited decline space for real - estate - related revenue, monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [2][13] - This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.09% week - on - week and 24.08% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and increased by 17.61% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.20%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 0.92% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 2.32% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 7.54% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.76% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 3.10% and 3.42% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 0.41% on average week - on - week; the aluminum spot price increased by 0.20% on average week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.87% week - on - week. From December 1 - 18 this year, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 293,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - economic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export value year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [29][33][37] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document provides multiple charts showing important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, and the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate [97][102][108] 3.4 Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document provides multiple charts showing the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, such as the daily average production of crude steel (decade) and the production material price index [112][121][127] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document provides charts showing the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167]

钛媒体App 12月21日消息，据报道，美联储哈玛克表示，美联储在过去三次会议上连续降息后，未来几 个月内没有任何调整利率的必要。哈马克反对近期的降息，因为她更担心居高不下的通胀，而非潜在的 劳动力市场脆弱性。哈玛克今年并非利率制定委员会的投票成员，但明年将成为投票委员。"我的基本 预期是，可以将利率维持在当前水平一段时间，至少可以维持到春季。直到我们获得更清晰的证据，表 明要么通胀正在回落至目标水平，要么就业市场出现更实质性的疲软，"她在周四接受媒体采访时表 示。（广角观察） ...

国际油价延续下行趋势，供应过剩担忧及俄乌潜在和平协议预期一度压制市场，油价一度跌至4年低 位。随后特朗普关于委内瑞拉的表态阶段性缓解供应过剩忧虑，油价稍微反弹，但在制裁不确定性与需 求前景博弈下，整体仍处于低位宽幅震荡区间。 美股方面，本周走势明显分化且波动加剧。周初在科技股拖累下整体承压，中期一度因个股行情和风险 偏好修复出现反弹，但周三再度大幅回落，显示市场对估值与政策前景仍存谨慎。周四受通胀数据利好 提振，三大股指集体收涨，科技股和部分高波动个股表现突出，但全周来看，美股仍以震荡整理为主， 结构性行情特征明显。本周整体来看，道指跌0.67%，标普500指数涨0.1%，纳指涨0.48%。 行情回顾 12月21日，本周，美元指数整体呈现先跌后涨的走势。周初受非农数据喜忧参半、通胀预期反复影响， 美元一度下破98关口，但未有效跌破并回升。CPI低于预期一度引发美指快速跳水，随后在美债收益率 企稳配合下反弹修复，全周重心小幅上移。本周美指收于98.73．上涨0.33%。 现货黄金本周维持高位宽幅震荡格局。受美元走弱和美债收益率下滑提振，金价多次冲击4350美元乃至 4370美元上方，但均未能站稳，高位获利回吐明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the entire curve of US Treasury yields declined slightly by 3 - 5bp. Although inflation and employment data are favorable for the bond market, the decline in interest rates is not significant. This is because the market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. The "limited hawkish" stance of the Bank of Japan is due to the need to balance multiple pressures. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - The US employment situation shows that the labor market has not changed significantly, with employers reluctant to increase recruitment significantly but not initiating large - scale layoffs. The economic growth momentum is weakening, and inflation is showing a downward trend [21][22][24]. - In the asset market, German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose; the global equity market was highly differentiated; black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure; most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported [26][27][28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - **Yield Changes**: From December 12 to December 19, 2025, the yields of 1 - month, 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year US Treasuries decreased by 5bp, 3bp, 4bp, 5bp, 3bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 3.71%, 3.51%, 3.48%, 3.70%, 4.16%, and 4.82% [2][11]. - **Reasons for the Limited Decline**: The market doubts the validity of the data from October and November, and the expected change in the interest - rate cut path is small [2][11]. - **Japanese Interest - Rate Hike Impact**: The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but the yen continued to weaken. As the yen approaches the "intervention level", the actions of the Japanese Ministry of Finance may affect the pricing of US Treasuries and the stock market [3][12]. - **Auction Results**: On December 17, the auction of 20 - year US Treasuries was robust, with a winning bid rate of 4.798%, a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.67 times (higher than the previous value of 2.41 times), and a tail spread of - 2.500 (higher than the previous value of - 0.200) [17]. 3.2 US Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: In November, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, higher than the forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of - 105,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the forecast of 4.5% and the previous value of 4.4%. The average hourly wage growth rate was 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the forecast of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 13 decreased to 224,000 [21]. - **Business Index**: In December, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.8, lower than the forecast of 52.0 and the previous value of 52.2; the service PMI was 52.9, lower than the forecast of 54.0 and the previous value of 54.1, hitting a six - month low. The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 10.2, lower than the forecast of 2.5 and the previous value of - 1.7 [4][22][24]. - **Inflation**: In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and the forecast of 3.1%. Some officials believe that there is a large space for the Fed to cut interest rates [4][22][24]. - **Housing Market**: In November, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US was 4.13 million units, with a median price of $409,200, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The housing market showed a significant differentiation, with low - priced housing sales under pressure and the high - end market relatively strong [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Review - **Bonds**: German medium - and long - term bonds and Japanese bonds rose. The yields of German 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1bp, 3bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively. The yields of Japanese 1 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year bonds increased by 1.4bp, 0.7bp, 1.6bp, 2.4bp, and 1.6bp respectively [26]. - **Equities**: The global market was highly differentiated. The Vietnam VN30, UK FTSE 100, and France CAC40 rose by 3.55%, 2.57%, and 1.03% respectively, while the South Korea Composite Index, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 3.52%, 2.61%, and 1.10% respectively [27]. - **Commodities**: Black - series and chemical commodities strengthened, while grains and digital assets were under pressure. The coke index, coking coal index, and soda ash index rose by 9.82%, 9.11%, and 4.53% respectively, while CBOT wheat, CBOT soybeans, and Bitcoin fell by 3.68%, 2.55%, and 2.37% respectively [28]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Most global foreign exchange markets declined, with only the Russian ruble supported. The ruble rose by 0.35%, while the South Korean won, euro, and British pound fell by 0.62%, 0.37%, and 0.33% respectively [29]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the latest target - rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin this week, the auction panel of US Treasuries, and the yield curves of US Treasuries, Japanese bonds, and German bonds, etc., to track the market situation [13][14][17].

美联储哈马克：对通胀保持警惕，倾向于在春季前维持利率稳定 。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market experienced a collective surge followed by a significant drop, with over 67,000 individuals facing liquidation within 24 hours [1][2] - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $88,102.9, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.17%, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,972.57, down 0.30% [2] - The total liquidation amount in the last 24 hours reached approximately $66.65 million, with the largest single liquidation occurring at Hyperliquid valued at $893,600 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Expectations - Recent economic data has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt a rate-cutting strategy, with a 28.8% probability for a 25 basis point cut in January [3][4] - The U.S. inflation rate for November was significantly lower than economists' predictions, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, indicating limited upward potential for inflation data [4] - President Trump has indicated that the next Federal Reserve chair will support substantial rate cuts, aiming to lower financing costs for U.S. Treasury [5][6] Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Trends - A global trend of interest rate cuts is emerging, with several countries, including Russia and the UK, announcing reductions in rates, contributing to a new wave of monetary easing [8] - Precious metals have seen a significant price increase, with gold and silver prices rising over 65% and 130% respectively this year, driven by central bank purchases and ETF inflows [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the changing dynamics in the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the leading candidate over Kevin Hassett, amidst discussions on the Fed's independence and future policy direction [1][2][3]. - The candidate pool for the new Fed Chair has been narrowed from 11 to 5, including Hassett, Walsh, current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed, with a final decision expected in early January [2]. - Trump's preference for Walsh, who supports significant interest rate cuts, has shifted market expectations, with Walsh's nomination probability rising to approximately 47% while Hassett's has dropped to around 41% [3]. Group 2 - Walsh is characterized as a "hawkish reformer," advocating for a return to the Fed's core mission of price stability and a significant reduction of its balance sheet, arguing that current inflation is a result of past monetary policy mismanagement [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with Trump expressing a desire for the next Chair to consult him on interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the potential political influence on monetary policy [5]. - The Fed's recent announcement of a $40 billion monthly bond purchase plan has led to revised debt issuance forecasts, indicating a commitment to support Treasury financing, which may further blur the lines between monetary and fiscal policy [6]. Group 3 - Recent inflation data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming year, with the CPI showing a lower-than-expected increase, suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy [7]. - Waller, a current Fed policymaker, has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, emphasizing a gradual approach to policy adjustments while acknowledging the current economic landscape [8]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook for the Fed's future actions, with analysts predicting potential rate cuts in 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation dynamics [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a mixed performance in the stock market, with the Dow Jones down 0.67%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.48% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.10% [1] - European stock indices showed strength, with the FTSE 100 up 2.57%, DAX 30 up 1.07%, and CAC 40 up 0.57% [1] - Investors are assessing new economic data to gauge the U.S. economic performance and potential timing for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with inflation declining but data quality being questioned [2] - The upcoming Q3 GDP estimate is considered crucial among the economic data to be released in the next two weeks [2] - A report from BNP Paribas indicates that while the U.S. economy's fundamentals appear sound, risks remain, with concerns about job market prospects and significant layoffs announced by several companies [2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices continue to trend downward due to oversupply expectations and easing geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude down 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel [3] - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures up 1.43% to $4361.40 per ounce, driven partly by high inflation eroding the value of fiat currencies [3] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark interest rate, with a slight upward adjustment in inflation expectations and economic growth forecasts [5] - The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with a close vote among committee members indicating a potential for further easing [5] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week, including U.S. new home starts, durable goods orders, and consumer confidence index [6]