Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) showing a slight decline, while certain stocks within the sector are performing well. The ETF has reached a record high in size, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, the Aerospace ETF (159227) has a decline of 0.52% and a trading volume of 123 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1]. - The current size of the Aerospace ETF (159227) is 1.79 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - A team of Chinese scientists has successfully completed ground testing of inflatable, reconfigurable modules for a new space manufacturing platform, which is a significant step towards large-scale industrial production in orbit [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the aerospace and defense industry is expected to maintain its growth due to the iteration of aviation equipment, the release of guided equipment demand, and the introduction of new domain and quality equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The increasing complexity of geopolitical situations is driving demand for specialized equipment, with domestic manufacturers having advantages in performance and pricing, which is likely to enhance China's global market share in specialized equipment [1].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 7 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美国总统特朗普周三表示股市将创下更多"历史新高"，必 须尽快重启政府，美股有所反弹，美国最高法院多名法官质疑特朗普关税政策， 认为其关税政策已超越职权范围。国内方面，9 月经济数据显示基本面压力进一 步加深，社零消费、固定资产投资等均低于预期，固定资产投资同比增速由正转 负，房地产投资跌幅进一步扩大，有待政策提振。政策方面，四中全会公报上确 认了十五五规划内容，提振信心的同时也为未来市场风格带来政策指引。流动性 方面，两融余额持续 ...

预计未来县城将聚集更多人口和产业，县域经济发展前景广阔。 我国有1800多个县和县级市，覆盖全国7亿多人口，不同类型县域的发展路径各不相同。 文中指出，作为"城尾乡头"的县城，与大城市相比具有住房、生活等成本低的优势，不仅能有效吸纳县 域内人口城镇化，还很可能成为不少出县务工人员回流的重要选择。近年来，农民工外出半径不断缩 小，县内就业占比上升，就地就近转移成为趋势。第七次全国人口普查数据显示，2010-2020年，县城 和县级市城区常住人口规模增长超30%，预计未来县城将聚集更多人口和产业，县域经济发展拥有广阔 前景。 文中强调，"十五五"时期，要着力做好几个方面的工作。首先是推动县域各展其长。各县在自然条件、 人口规模、资源禀赋、生态环境、经济基础等方面差别较大，发展县域经济不可能用一个模式打天下。 受自然地理条件、经济社会发展、产业结构等因素的影响，县域之间的经济总量、人口数量等差异较 大。公开数据显示，2024年全国GDP千亿县数量增加到62个，其中GDP超3000亿元的县域达到5个， 即"苏南四小龙"（昆山、江阴、张家港和常熟）以及闽南的晋江。此外，浙江的慈溪、义乌GDP也超过 2500亿元；宜兴G ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the domestic manufacturing PMI in October was 49, with production and new orders declining [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, and the US government shutdown continues [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Market Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets clear goals, and the expected average GDP growth rate during the period is around 5%, which boosts market sentiment [1] - The China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, including solutions to the TikTok issue, suspension of some US investigations and rules, and cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" [1] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8 and a difference of - 0.6 from the recent average. Production and new orders declined [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The short - term funding shortage has not been significantly alleviated, and there is a 67.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 37th day, breaking the historical record. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 new jobs in October [1] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and there are price fluctuation risks. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation [2] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector's long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply [2] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term sharp fluctuations [2] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Key News - The market strengthened with fluctuations throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Over 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.07 trillion [4] - The US government shutdown has reached 36 days, a record high. Trump expects the stock market to reach a new high and calls for an end to the "lengthy debate" rule to restart the government [4] - Fed Governor Milan believes that the ADP small non - farm employment report is better than expected, and the labor demand is not as strong as expected. He believes that the Fed's monetary policy is too restrictive and further interest rate cuts are reasonable [4] - Key conservative Supreme Court justices questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the final ruling may shake Trump's signature economic policy [4]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a blueprint for China's development, emphasizing the importance of achieving socialist modernization during this critical period [2] - The plan highlights the need for a combination of effective markets and proactive government roles to enhance the socialist market economy [4][5] - Key goals include improving the quality of development, increasing consumer spending, and strengthening the national innovation system [5] Group 1: Economic Transformation - The deep transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are expected to generate an economic value increase of approximately 10 trillion yuan [6] - Traditional industries account for about 80% of the overall economic value, indicating their significance in the economy [6] - The plan emphasizes the need for digitalization, intelligence, greening, high-end development, and integration of traditional industries to adapt to new technological revolutions [6] Group 2: Innovation and Market Dynamics - The development of strategic emerging industries should be tailored to local conditions, focusing on resource endowments and technological capabilities [7] - Policies should encourage innovation and shift competition from price-based to value-based, enhancing brand and service experiences [8] - Strengthening market competition and regulatory frameworks is essential to foster a fair and sustainable market environment [8] Group 3: State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Global Competitiveness - The plan aims to enhance the core functions and competitiveness of SOEs, focusing on strategic sectors vital to national security and public welfare [10] - Building world-class enterprises is a long-term goal, requiring continuous innovation and management improvements [11] - The emphasis is on aligning with global standards to enhance the international influence of Chinese enterprises [11]

Core Insights - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a significant platform for both established and new companies to showcase products and seek collaboration opportunities in the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Participation and Opportunities - Numerous exhibitors are presenting innovative products and are eager to establish partnerships to accelerate their market entry in China [1][3]. - Companies like Olympus and Danone are leveraging the expo to introduce new products and technologies, emphasizing the importance of the event for understanding market trends and consumer needs [5][8]. - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council is facilitating participation from over 300 companies, aiming to connect mainland enterprises with international markets [6]. Group 2: Strategic Engagement - Executives from companies such as Alfa Laval are conducting high-level meetings at the expo to deepen their understanding of the Chinese market and explore investment opportunities [10][14]. - Alfa Laval's CEO highlighted that China represents over 20% of their sales, indicating the market's significance for their global strategy [16]. - The company's five-year plan aligns closely with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing a commitment to leveraging China's green technology leadership for future growth [18][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The fast-paced decision-making and supportive local government in China are noted as key factors driving innovation and efficiency for multinational companies [25][27]. - The expo facilitates connections across various segments of the supply chain, allowing companies to engage with multiple stakeholders in a short timeframe [27].

中央宣讲团成员、中共中央政治局委员、全国人大常委会副委员长李鸿忠11月6日在全国人大机关 宣讲党的二十届四中全会精神。 李鸿忠围绕学习领会习近平总书记重要讲话精神和全会审议通过的《建议》，从深刻认识全会重大 意义，准确把握"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中的重要地位，深刻领会"十五五"时期经 济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标，全面理解"十五五"时期经济社会发展的战略任务和重大举措，坚持 和加强党的全面领导等方面，对四中全会精神进行系统宣讲和深入阐释。 李鸿忠强调，全会取得的重大成果、作出的重大部署，充分体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央团 结带领全党全国各族人民续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章、奋力开创中国式现代化建 设新局面的历史主动，必将对党和国家事业发展产生重大而深远的影响。要深刻领悟"两个确立"的决定 性意义，坚决做到"两个维护"，始终在思想上政治上行动上同以习近平同志为核心的党中央保持高度一 致。对《建议》提出的人大工作任务举措逐项认真研究，结合实际抓好落实，推动人大工作高质量发 展。 全国人大机关党组成员，各专门委员会、工作委员会有关负责同志和机关党员干部参加报告会。 新华社北京 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and its implications for China's modernization process during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] - The reports highlight the importance of understanding and implementing the guiding principles, main objectives, strategic tasks, and major initiatives for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] - The emphasis on the necessity of maintaining the Party's comprehensive leadership and the "two establishments" and "two safeguards" is reiterated across various reports [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] Group 2 - The reports stress the need for a coordinated approach to implement the tasks outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan," ensuring alignment with Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] - There is a call for enhancing the quality of life and improving social security systems as part of the key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][5][9][10][11][12] - The importance of grassroots engagement and interaction with local communities and enterprises is highlighted, showcasing a commitment to practical implementation of the session's directives [7][8][10][11][12][13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - oscillating; Coal and coke - rebounding; Rebar and rolled steel - oscillating; Glass - oscillating; Soda ash - weakening [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillating; CSI 300 - oscillating; CSI 500 - rebounding; CSI 1000 - rebounding; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 10 - year Treasury bond - rising; Gold - high - level oscillating; Silver - high - level oscillating [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - weakly oscillating; Pulp - bottom - consolidating; Offset paper - oscillating; Edible oils - range - bound; Meal products - oscillating; Beans - oscillating; Live pigs - strongly oscillating [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: Rubber - oscillating; PX - on - the - sidelines; PTA - oscillating; MEG - weakening; PR - on - the - sidelines; PF - on - the - sidelines [9] 2. Core Views - **Macro - level**: The Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, Sino - US relations ease, and the 14th Five - Year Plan exceeds market expectations. The market is in short - term consolidation, with an upward mid - term trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - **Industry - level**: Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the black industry, there is an oversupply situation in iron ore; in the coal and coke sector, fundamentals support price increases. In the financial industry, stock index futures show different trends, and the bond market is in a state of small - scale rebound [2][4] 3. Summary by Industry **Black Industry** - **Iron ore**: Supply reaches a multi - year high with a 59% month - on - month increase in the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports. Demand is weak, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level. Port inventories continue to rise, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coal and coke**: Overseas and domestic positive factors support prices. The low profit of steel mills and the uncertainty of negative feedback in the steel market make the raw - material end stronger than the finished - product end. Coke starts the third round of price increases [2] - **Rebar and rolled steel**: After the macro - level positive factors are realized, prices return to fundamentals. Low static valuation, weak demand, and the need for strict production cuts and anti - "involution" policies to stop the price decline [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion and production - line cold - repair in Shahe is fermenting. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory increases. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the supply - demand surplus [2] **Financial Industry** - **Stock index futures/options**: Different stock indices show different trends. Some sectors have capital inflows or outflows. The market is expected to be upward in the mid - term, and long positions are recommended [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. The market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds [4] **Light Industry** - **Logs**: Supply pressure increases with seasonal import growth. Demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off - season. Port inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, and prices are expected to weakly oscillate [6] - **Pulp**: Cost support weakens, paper - mill inventory pressure is high, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to bottom - consolidate [6] - **Edible oils**: The US government shutdown causes a lack of data, and concerns about soybean exports rise. Palm oil production and inventory pressure suppress prices. Crude - oil price weakness affects the bio - fuel industry and drags down the edible - oil market. Domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to range - bound [6] - **Meal products**: China's tariff cut on US agricultural products improves short - term sentiment, but the follow - up price trend depends on actual procurement and export rhythm. Domestic supply increases, and demand is weak, with prices expected to oscillate [6][7] - **Live pigs**: Transaction weight slightly decreases. Settlement prices rise due to factors such as increased demand for large pigs, improved slaughter - enterprise orders, and enhanced secondary - fattening enthusiasm. Prices are expected to rise in the coming week [7] **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry** - **Rubber**: Different regions have different weather impacts on raw - material supply. Overall inventory is low, and demand shows signs of recovery. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX and PTA**: PX has short - term supply increase and demand decrease, and PTA's cost - end support weakens. Both prices mainly follow oil - price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level, demand is expected to decline in the future, and price is under pressure from inventory accumulation [9] - **PR and PF**: PR may adjust strongly due to cost factors, and PF is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation [9]

通用汽车全球商业运营副总裁 史蒂夫·希尔：整整8年了，我对未来中国市场非常乐观。 本届进博会共有155个国家、地区和国际组织参与，还有290家世界500强和行业龙头企业参展。在进博会开幕式前，来自全球的企业高管、专家学者等都提 前来到会场，和老朋友畅聊、和新朋友结识，也找到了更多的发展机遇。 0:00 开云集团首席执行官 卢卡·德·梅奥：我们已连续七年亮相。我们将继续在中国投资。 阿法拉伐集团总裁兼首席执行官 汤姆·埃里克森：对我个人来说，这是第一次来。 良品计画全球社长 清水智：这次是第三次了。 新西兰纽仕兰乳业有限公司执行总裁 罗伊·范登赫克：进博会这个平台是一个"黄金宝库"，让供应链各环节都能获得资源对接，所有连接点都畅通无阻，这 是进博会最大的优势之一。 伟巴斯特集团首席执行官 博瀚：中国红，我特别喜欢红色，也特别喜欢中国。我们在这里的研发成果都将推向全球市场。 不到2个小时的茶歇时间，对所有嘉宾来说都要争分夺秒。有的嘉宾在现场寻找自己认识的合作伙伴，不仅如此，记者看到现场的对接洽谈桌全部都被提前 预订，一直都是满员状态。 麦德龙商业集团有限公司全球副总裁兼中国区总裁 蔡天乐：我希望能够把握机会，与尽 ...